As of November 29th, there have been 15 FBS head coaching jobs that have come open. All but three of those jobs (Oregon State, UTEP, Mississippi State) came about because the previous coach was fired. None of these coaching changes were unexpected, but were they warranted? I would argue that the Arizona State and Texas A&M fires were premature. Thanks to social media, fans, and boosters that are screaming about wanting their coaches fired are now heard and more often than not get their wish granted.
With some coaches having large buyouts, there are obvious financial ramifications to firing a head coach. In addition to financial ramifications of firing the coach, there is often a lot of uncertainty when you don’t know who the next head coach is going to be. Many fan bases that have called for their coaches to be fired are learning a hard lesson. You may get your wish with your coach being fired, but your new coach may be from the “scratch and dent bin.” There are good coaches in the scratch and dent bin, but they aren’t perfect and have some unsuccessful times in their history. But you got what you wanted, a new coach.
It is abundantly clear that many schools do not make good decisions when it comes to deciding whether to retain or fire their head coaches. So I am here to help. I have come up with a simple, absolutely genius, and foolproof test to determine whether or not your head coach needs to be fired.
Unafraid Coaching Test
Every head coach needs to be reevaluated every season. It does not matter whether the coach went undefeated and won the championship or went defeated and zero games. You only need to answer two questions two know whether your coach needs to be fired or not.
Number one: Is there a coach that is guaranteed to take your job that is better than your current coach? Example: Clay Helton is the head coach at USC. He seems to be doing a good job, but anyone clearly would fire him if Chip Kelly or Nick Saban would replace him.
Number two: Is there still hope? Can your current coach go into the living rooms of 17-21-year-old kids and sell them and their parents on the fact that the future of your program is brighter than the past? Can you make them buy in, believe, and go all in with you?
If you can’t answer both of these questions in the affirmative, then you need a head coaching change. The Unafraid Coaching Test is a simple and foolproof test. If Athletic Directors and administrators answered these two simple questions every season, they wouldn’t consistently mess up their programs. This method of determining whether to keep or fire your coach is an easy explanation to the boosters and other influential people around your program. It will keep the waters from being muddied by people with personal agendas and faulty reasoning. When Athletic Directors and administrations listen to the mob of angry fans, they mess up their programs by firing a coach too prematurely, or they rely on their gut/pride and keep the coach too long.
The angry mob of fans and boosters change their minds like the wind; their opinions cannot be trusted in the short term. Think about this. Early this season Auburn fans and boosters were calling for Gus Malzahn to be fired. Now, he has the Tigers sitting at #2 in the country and one win away from playing for a national championship.
Here are a couple of common questions I got when I explained this on #UnafraidShow:
What if the coach is winning, but he can’t recruit?
If your coach can’t recruit, then he can’t win long term. If he can’t win, there will be a loss of hope. When the loss of hope happens, fire your coach. Don’t fire a winning coach!
What if the coach recruits well, constantly goes 8-5 or 9-4, and can never get you “over the hump”?
This is clearly referring to Kevin Sumlin. If you can for sure get Jimbo Fisher who has won a national championship firing Sumlin is a good move. If you miss on Jimbo, you have ROYALLY screwed up. A coach who recruits well and consistently stays in those win totals is really close to breaking through. You will wish for him back two years from now.
Next time you get into a discussion about whether or not the coach of your favorite team needs to be fired refer to the Unafraid Coaching Test.