It’s honesty hour in my betting column. It hasn’t been a good year for me. My bets of the week have been less than stellar. However, I somehow nail the underdog of the week more often than not. Plus, the teasers have been solid. With all of this information, should I sit out for Week 11 Best Bets?
Last week, I chose the Raiders because I had no idea what to expect from Jeff Saturday. Once Matt Ryan was named the starter, I immediately regretted my decision to bet on the Raiders. Unfortunately for Indy, the pissed-off Eagles are coming to town after their first loss of the season. Both teams will look to establish the run early, but Indy does a much better job stopping it (10th-ranked rushing defense) than Philly (20th-ranked rushing defense). For the over, Philly is 6-3 while Indy is 2-8. I’m expecting the Eagles to establish their first-half scoring dominance (19.4 points per first half) and Indy to get a few garbage scores to satisfy the over.
Bills vs. Browns Over 49.5
If this game was in the Buffalo snowstorm, the o/u would have been set at 19.5. With the venue change to Detroit, the points will soon follow. The Browns have the best over record in the NFL at 6-2-1. They average the 5th most rushing yards per game in the league. However, the Browns can’t stop a nosebleed as they give up the second-most points per game at 26.4. Even though the under has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games, Josh Allen and the Bills are determined to prove that they belong at the top of the AFC. Expect the Bills to make a statement on offense, leading to a victory and more importantly, the over.
NFL Week 11 Underdog of the Week
Chargers +5.5 vs. Chiefs
The Chargers always play Mahomes tough. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. Four of the last five games between these two teams have been decided by 6 points or less. The Chiefs are 26-3 in regular season games played in November or later since 2019. However, Mahomes will be without Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. For the Chargers, Just Herbert could be getting back his top two receivers, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. If the Chargers get both of those guys back, they’re good enough to cover the line.
NFL Week 11 Teaser of the Week
7 POINTS: Bills -7.5 > -.5, Vikings +1.5 > +8.5
Sunday’s teaser is brought to you by the “bounce-back game” and the “come back to Earth game.” Josh Allen is not living up to the MVP expectations placed upon him at the beginning of the year. Blowing second half leads to the Jets and Vikings in losing efforts is unacceptable. Leading the league in interceptions isn’t the end of the world, but making reckless throws into tight coverage, like last week’s game-sealing INT, is a big deal! With the game in the Detroit dome due to the weather, I’m expecting the Bills to come out with a chip on their shoulder and score, score, and score.
The Vikings are still high off their upset win over the Bills. This week screams letdown, which is why the Cowboys are favored over the Vikings by a point and a half. The Dallas defense will keep this a low-scoring affair, but that same defense allows the 3rd most rushing yards per game (143.1). Have fun stopping Dalvin Cook! This game feels like a coin flip, and the Vikings are too talented to lose by more than a touchdown, even if they’re due for regression.
I’m wedding-ed out. After 7 weddings in 15 months, I am #done for the year. Why does this matter to you? I won’t miss another weekly best bets column like I did last week for a (you guessed it) wedding. I will be better, and after a 3-1 Week 8, I’m on the right track. Here’s to a winning Week 10.
I am going back to the well until further notice. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in the 1st half. They average a league-best 20 points per game in the first half. Do you know who ranks 31st in 1st half scoring? The Washington Commanders with a measly average of 6.0 points. The Eagles have a problem with taking their foot off the gas in the second half, but that doesn’t matter for this bet. Expect a few Jalen Hurts TDs in the first half for the cover.
Raiders -4.5 vs. Colts
17+ point blown leads by Raiders in franchise history
All of the signs say to bet on the Raiders. Jeff Saturday has never coached a game at the NFL or collegiate level. No one on that staff has ever called offensive plays. The Colts are starting a rookie QB. Once again, this should be easy money. But, the Raiders love to lose. Three blown leads of 17 points this season is no Bueno. I have no evidence to support this theory, but my guess is the entire NFL coaching community wants the Raiders to blow out the Colts because of the Saturday decision.
NFL Week 10 Underdog of the Week
Packers +3.5 vs. Cowboys
Full disclosure, I wrote a paragraph on why the Steelers should be the underdog of the week at +1.5 at home against the Saints. This was yesterday (Nov. 12). I woke up this morning and the line was -1 Steelers. Classic! So I’m calling an audible and trusting a team that should not be trusted, the Green Bay Packers. This is a kitchen sink game for the Packers. If you think they have a shot at the playoffs, they need to play well today. The Packers surprisingly allow the second-least amount of passing yards per game. In that same category, Dallas surrenders the fourth least. Expect a lot of runs and if Zeke Elliot can’t go, I’ll take the tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon over a lone Tony Pollard. This game should be close so I’m siding with Rodgers (for one final time) to cover.
NFL Week 10 Teaser of the Week
7 points: Chiefs -9.5 > -2.5, 49ers -7.5 > -.5
The Chiefs should be able to take care of the Jaguars at home. I would consider taking the 9.5 points because the Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. In the Bay area, the 49ers is my Super Bowl representative out of the NFC. After the CMC trade, I feel even more confident that they can win the NFC. Plus, they’re getting healthy again. Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, and Elijah Mitchell should all be making their returns. For the Chargers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will both be out. I expect a close game, but all the 49ers have to do is win. I’ll take my chances.
Last week, I did not bet on any games. I turned my attention toward my best friend’s wedding (not the movie). Therefore, I did not write up my best bets for Week 7.
After my 0-4 week in Week 6, maybe some time off will change my luck for Week 8.
I have something to get off my chest. Why does Arthur Smith hate Kyle Pitts and Drake London? Take this with a grain of salt because I’m a Pitts fantasy owner. It’s been a disaster, but Smith is doing nothing to get Pitts and London involved in the offense. I don’t want to hear how Smith is designing plays for his most talented pass-catchers. Enough! Find a way to get your best players the ball. Rant over.
Despite my hatred for Coach Smith’s strategy, the Falcons are tied for the best record ATS at 6-1. They run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. (6th against the run in terms of yards per game.) I have no explanation for how the Panthers beat the Bucs. It will be an ugly game, but the Falcons should come out on top.
Eagles -6 1H vs. Steelers
The Eagles are the best team in the NFC. They are 4th in points per game and give up the fourth least points per game. Jalen Hurts might win the MVP if he continues his production and leads Philly to a 1-seed. However, they have one glaring issue. The Eagles do not know how to score in the second half. It is an anomaly. The Eagles average 5.8 points in the second half, which is 30th in the NFL. On the flip side, the Eagles are the highest-scoring offense in the first half and it ain’t close. (21 first-half points per game. Second place is 16 points.) Philly is 6-0 ATS in the first half. Let’s hope that trend continues.
NFL Week 8 Underdog of the Week
Browns +3.5 vs. Bengals
If Ja’Maar Chase was playing, I would be staying away from this game. With Chase out, I’m back in on the Browns. Cleveland sneakily owns the Bengals as the Browns are winners of the past four matchups and seven of the last eight. Nick Chubb, the NFL’s leading rusher, should find success against an average Bengals rushing defense. Plus, I’ll take Myles Garrett against anyone on the average Bengals offensive line. Time to bark, Cleveland.
If the Bills want to win the Super Bowl, they need to take care of business at home and step on the Packers’ throats. The Packers are in disarray and Aaron Rodgers will be missing his top target, Allen Lazard. No excuse for Buffalo to have a letdown game. In Houston, I had to do a double-take at this line. Even with Ryan Tannehill out, why are the Texans a 1-point favorite against the first-place Titans? Someone explain to me how this makes sense? WHAT DOES VEGAS KNOW?! Don’t be scared, folks. Malik Willis might take this job and not give it up, Yup, I said it. The Titans have won four of the last five against Houston. They’ll make it five out of six.
Tonight marks the start of the 2022-2023 NBA Season. Wait, what? The season always sneaks up on me, but this time, I’m ready for it.
It was a wild offseason full of blockbuster trades (Donovan Mitchell), trade demands (Kevin Durant), and trades that broke our brains (Rudy Gobert).
Has the NBA ever been more talented than it is now? Seriously, there are marquee players on almost every team. But, if you thought tanking was bad in the past, wait until you see what happens this year as teams position themselves for Victor Wembanyama and Scott Henderson.
Shall we make some NBA season predictions?
NBA Key Storylines
Draymond Green vs. The Warriors: The punch heard ’round the world might be a death blow to the Warriors dynasty. Draymond’s punch isn’t something the team will forget in the short term. After the recipient of the punch, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins received contract extensions, Draymond is now the meme of Will Smith in an empty room. I trust Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Steve Kerr to be professional about it, but this situation is something to keep an eye on.
WBD Sports, Omaha Productions and Green 23 will debut a new all-access series, The Countdown, during pregame tonight.
The premiere will feature Draymond Green's journey throughout the preseason, including Green’s reaction to his practice altercation and return to the Warriors. pic.twitter.com/ZO7clVQpnS
The Circus in Brooklyn: On paper, the Nets could win the NBA Championship. In reality, they have a long way to go. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving wanted out this offseason, and yet both players return to a roster that was swept by the Celtics in the first round. It’s only a matter of when, not if, the team will implode.
No Ime, No Problem?: The Celtics were prime for a return to the NBA Finals until Ime Udoka received a yearlong suspension. Now, I don’t know what to expect out of Boston. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the two staples and the addition of Malcolm Brogan is an upgrade at the point guard position. However, Robert Williams is out until December at the earliest and Al Horford has a lot of miles on his legs. The Cs should figure things out on their way to the playoffs, but I don’t trust them to beat teams like Boston or Philadelphia.
You can say this about a lot of teams when it comes to injuries, but if the Bucks had a healthy Khris Middleton, I believe they make the NBA Finals. If the Bucks are healthy this season, they have the pieces to win the Eastern Conference. They return virtually the same roster from a season ago, and they will add Joe Ingles to the rotation once he returns in 2023. I like the Sixers’ additions of P.J. Tucker and De’Anthony Melton to add much-needed toughness to the roster. Embiid will be an MVP favorite, but it will not be enough to catapult the Sixers past the Bucks in the East.
Western Conference
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
Western Conference Finals: Warriors over Clippers
The Draymond Green saga could be a major thorn in the Warriors’ side as they look to defend their title. There is a possibility that Green gets dealt at the deadline. However, if Green can suck it up and play through the turmoil, the Warriors are in a prime position to repeat. Steph and Klay will steal all the headlines, but another year of Poole and Wiggins will add to the team’s chemistry. If Jonathan Kuminga can take the next step and James Wiseman can take a (literal) step, the Warriors will represent the West in the Finals.
NBA Finals
Bucks over Warriors
Giannis puts on his crown and wins his second ring.
NBA Awards
MVP: Joel Embiid
7-footers should not be able to handle and create like this
Oh, Daniel. Daniel Daniel Daniel Daniel, Daniel. What a HORRIBLE Week 5 for yours truly. Zero wins are unacceptable. You’re going to have bad weeks. I get that. However, Week 6 must be a winning week, or I’m going to have to take a long look in the mirror and question everything I know about football. (I will still bet in Week 7 no matter what.) We’re going to FanDuel for the Week 6 lines. Change up the mojo.
We’re switching things up this week. As much as I want to bet Seattle to not only cover the 2.5 but win outright, I am going with the safer* play. Geno Smith is a new man. Who had the highest passer rating in Week 5? Mr. Geno Smith. Who has Seattle at 7th in points per game (25.4) and eighth in yards per game (368.0)? Mr. Geno Smith. Arizona might have the worst first-quarter offense in the history of football with 0.0 points per game. However, the Cardinals did outgain the Eagles in yards last week, 363 to 357. Even with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, Arizona will find success on the ground as the Seahawks surrender the most rushing yards per game (170.2) and 2nd most points per game (30.8). It should be noted that Rashaad Penny is on IR for Seattle. Don’t let it spook you. I’m expecting a slow start, but an explosive second half full of scoring to hit the over.
*There are no safe bets in gambling.
Chargers -4.5 vs. Broncos
Broncos country, let’s (not) ride! What the hell is going on in Denver? Russell Wilson looks lost at QB. He refuses to run, and when he stays in the pocket, he’s missing too many throws. Plus, Nathaniel Hackett is trying to get fired with some of the decisions he’s made over the past five weeks. Speaking of coaches trying to get fired, Brandon Staley makes one WTF decision every week that makes you want to jump off a roof. Why did he go for it on fourth down from his team’s own 46 with 1:14 left up 2 points? The Chargers were lucky to escape Cleveland with a win. Stop being cute. Punt the ball! Anyway, I trust Justin Herbert a lot more than I do Wilson. After getting their asses kicked by the Jaguars, Herbert and the Chargers offense have accumulated 64 points and 884 yards of total offense over the last two weeks. The Denver offense won’t be able to match that. Take the Chargers.
NFL Week 6 Underdog of the Week
Cowboys +6.5 vs. Eagles
Three weeks ago, I bet the Commanders to cover against the Eagles, which did not happen. Last week, I bet the Eagles to cover -5.5 against the Cardinals, which didn’t happen. Is the third time a charm for betting on an Eagles game? The Eagles are the best team in the NFC right now as they boast the second-ranked offense in terms of yards per game. But this third-ranked Dallas defense can neutralize Hurts. The Eagles should jump out to an early lead, but the Eagles offense stalls in the second half. They average only 5.8 points in the second half (third worst in NFL) as opposed to a league-best 21.2 points in the first half. I’m trusting Coope Rush to get the backdoor cover this weekend.
NFL Week 6 Teaser of the Week
Teaser: 7 points, Bucs -10>-3, Rams -10>-3
There’s no mincing words: the news isn’t good on the Steelers injury report.
Cam Sutton Ahkello Witherspoon Levi Wallace Minkah Fitzpatrick Pat Freiermuth DeMarvin Leal
Are all OUT vs. Bucs. Secondary vs. Brady is missing top 3 corners, and Fitzpatrick. pic.twitter.com/1UF2w0n2Bk
I’m pretty confident that the Bucs will be able to exploit a Steelers’ secondary that’s missing their three top corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick. However, I’m nervous about the Rams. It’s not an exaggeration to say the Rams have no threats on offense besides Cooper Kupp. As bad as the Panthers have been, all they need to do is triple-team Kupp, and the team will have a shot to keep it close. I believe in the “new coach, new quarterback” narrative to inject some life into the Panthers. PJ Walker is an upgrade over Mayfield, and no Matt Rhule is a win for the Panthers. Walker is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU as an NFL quarterback. Panthers +10 is a great underdog play, but Kupp will make enough plays to cover the 3 points in the tease.
In Week 4, the frisky Lions and Steelers let us down, but the Falcons, Chiefs, and Ravens did their thing to make it a 2-2 week. In Week 5, I’m trusting a cat, a bird, a JV offense, and Captain Kirk.
Last week, I loved the Lions, but they let me down. This week, I’m staying in the cat family and backing the Jaguars. I’m not going to overreact to the Jaguars’ offense committing five turnovers last week against the Eagles. It was a monsoon! I’m well aware that the Texans own the Jaguars. (6-2 ATS, 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.) The Jags are 4th in overall DVOA. Plus, Trevor Lawrence continues to improve in every statistical category from a season ago up to this point in the season. Lawrence had 12 passing TDs last season. This year, he has 8. Expect a few more as the Jaguars go on to win by 10.
Eagles -5.5 vs. Cardinals
The Eagles continue to be a thorn in my side. I’ve picked against them multiple times. What does Philly do? They go out and smack their opponents. Jalen Hurts has been a top 3 QB in the NFL through 4 weeks. Hurts, who has 8 total TDs and 2 INTs, is the catalyst of the NFL’s 2nd best offense in terms of yards per game with 435. The Cardinals are a chaotic mess. Arizona is averaging a league-worst 4 (!) points in the first half. Which team scores the most in the first half? The Philadelphia Eagles (23-point average first half), and it ain’t even close. Back the birds.
NFL Week 5 Underdog of the Week
Steelers +13.5 vs. Bills
The Bills are my Super Bowl pick. At times, they have looked like a juggernaut. Conversely, the Steelers have been a JV team on offense. Kenny Pickett should spark some life into the offense that is averaging a mediocre 18.5 points per game. So why am I backing the Steelers? Two words: Mike Tomlin. Coach T is 7-1 ATS as a 6-point underdog without Ben Roethlisberger as his QB. Let’s not forget that the Steelers went into Buffalo last year and upset the Bills. The Steelers will not win today’s game, but they will keep it close enough to cover.
Read above for my Jaguars’ rationale. The Vikings play the Bears, and I believe the Bears are the worst team in the NFL. If the Steelers run a JV offense, the Bears’ offense belongs in Pop Warner. The Bears are last in the NFL in passing yards per game with 97 (!!!!!!), second-to-last in yards per game at 274, and third-to-last in points per game with 16. If the Vikings’ defense puts 11 players on the field, they have a good chance at stopping the Bears. Trust Captain Kirk at 1 PM. He’ll deliver, and so will the Vikings.
My name is Dan Girolamo, and I will not trust Carson Wentz for the rest of the NFL season. I am a fool! They said the Eagles were 1-5 ATS in their last six division games. They said the line jumped three points to 6.5 after the Eagles trounced the Vikings. However, none of it mattered as Wentz stunk up the joint 24-8 loss. After a 1-3 record, let’s get back on track in Week 4.
The frisky Lions continue to impress me. They’ve been in every game this year. Detroit was up 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter a week ago against the Viking before blowing it at the end to lose 28-24. Did you know that the Lions are 3-0 ATS in 2022? Now, they return home to pay the inferior Seahawks. Jared Goff with time is a good quarterback. With 7 TDs and 2 INTs, Goff leads a Lions offense that’s third in the NFL in yards per game at 409. Even though the Lions are the fifth-worst in total defense, Seattle’s offense is fifth-worst in yards per game at 296.3. I expect a close game at halftime, but expect Goff and the Lions to win by a touchdown once the Seahwawks’ offense disappears in the second half.
Update: I wrote this the morning of 9/30 before the Lions said they would be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Losing St. Brown is a devastating blow to this offense as Goff’s favorite target leads the team with 253 receiving yards and 3 TDs. However, no Swift means the Lions can turn Jamaal Williams into a bell-cow running back. Williams is third in the NFL in red zone opportunities so expect that number to increase on Sunday. I still love the Lions, and you should, too. Thank you to my good pal, and gambling savant, Bus, who reminded me to update this post.
Steelers -3 vs. Jets
If you want to see a Big 10 football game in the NFL, then tune into Steelers-Jets on Sunday. Boy, will this game be ugly. The big news comes from New York as Zach Wilson will suit up for the first time this season. He inherits a Jets offense that’s averaged 370 yards per game (ninth in the NFL). On the flip side, Mitchell Trubisky runs a lifeless Steelers offense that’s bottom five in both yards per game and passing yards per game. However, this is more about Wilson playing his first game of the season against a Steelers defense that will pin their ears back and make Wilson’s life a living hell. The Steelers’ turnover differential is +3 while the Jets sit at -4. Winning the turnover battle matters, and the Steelers will force them on their way to a 6-point victory.
NFL Week 4 Underdog of the Week
Falcons +1 vs. Browns
Just like the Lions, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS in 2022. Although the offensive numbers are middle of the pack, the Falcons are top 10 in scoring offense, and all three games have hit the over. Am I afraid that the NFL’s top rusher in terms of yards, Nick Chubb, and the top rushing offense in the NFL get to face the 22nd-ranked Falcons defense? I’m not afraid, but I am concerned. This basically comes down to Jacoby Brissett vs. the Falcons. I still don’t trust Brissett, and he’s facing an Atlanta defense that’s seventh in forcing turnovers. It’s a coin flip so I’ll take the home dogs.
NFL Week 4 Teaser of the Week
Teaser: 6 points, Chiefs +1>+7 / Ravens +3>+9
Last week, my teaser consisted of a good team (Bucs) and a bad team (Commanders). Why did I torture myself? How about I put two good teams in the teaser of the week? Both the Chiefs and the Ravens are two Super Bowl caliber teams who find themselves as underdogs. When will that happen again? The Chiefs special teams were atrocious a week ago in the loss to the Colts. The lack of a deep threat concerns me for the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS as a road underdog and 10-3 SU following a loss. Plus, Brady is still trying to figure out the receiving situation so give me the Chiefs at +7 to cover. In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite as of today. Jackson’s 10 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs anchor the highest-scoring offense in the NFL through three games. The Bills are good, but they won’t blow out the Ravens in Baltimore.
After a mediocre first week, my NFL bets kicked ass in Week 2 as they went a perfect 4-0. Now, I wish I only bet 4 games and those 4 games only. But hey, I needed some action elsewhere, and I lost those bets. It happens. Regardless, the ones I wrote about all won so I hope you took advantage of the opportunity. Looking at the Week 3 slate, I spy with my little eye, a pack of barking dogs. Vegas is begging you to take the home underdogs in Indy, Miami, New England, DC, and NY so they can clean up when the favorites win.
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the kitchen sink game. With the Raiders and Titans at 0-2, both teams will do everything in their power to win this game. Fake punts, flea flickers, and reverses will be on the table. At the very least, the Raiders should be 1-1. Blowing a 20-point lead to a lifeless Cardinals team is inexcusable. On the flip side, the Titans gift-wrapped the Giants a Week 1 victory before being trounced by the Bills. Something has to give for one of these teams. The Raiders offense has been mediocre with an average of 322 yards per game. But it’s not as bad as the 273 yards per game from the Titans offense. Plus, the Titans will be missing one of their best pass blockers and pass rushers. Don’t let us down, Carr. This is your game to win.
The #Titans ruled out LT Taylor Lewan (knee) and pass-rusher Bud Dupree (hip) for Sunday's game vs. the #Raiders. Just like last year, Tennessee is once again dealing with a number of key injuries.
What happened to the Bengals? Truth be told, the Bengals aren’t as big of a mess as the media says. If Evan McPherson makes a field goal in Week 1 and the defense makes a 4th quarter stop in Week 2, Cincy could be 2-0. But, they’re winless and must face a Jets teams with a ton of confidence after pulling a rabbit out of a hat in their win vs. the Browns. Burrow can’t get sacked 13 times in two games, but the offensive line isn’t that bad. They just need to put some points on the board. As long as Burrow doesn’t throw Sauce Gardner’s way, they should be able to attack the Jets in the middle of the field and win by 7.
Bengals offensive line ranks on 58 true pass set reps this season:
True Pass Set pass blocking grade: 4th EPA per play on True Pass Sets: 25th
I have news for the one's who believe the vast majority of the blame falls on the OL in this scenario.
Before I hit you with a “but,” I will say that Jalen Hurts is off to a fantastic start this NFL season. I have my doubts about him as a pocket passer, but if he’s accumulating over 700 total yards in 2 games while sitting in the Top 10 for QBR, who the hell cares about the pocket? The Eagles look like the clear NFC East champions through two weeks. BUT, this line is an overreaction to the beatdown that took place against the Vikings. Say what you want about the Commies, they’re a division rival at home, and Philly is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against division opponents. If Carson Wentz takes care of the football (huge “if”) better than Kirk Cousins, then the Commies should be able to exploit an Eagles defense that surrendered 35 points to the Lions in Week 1. Philly may win, but the Commanders get the cover.
I don’t have the balls to tease the Colts even though I want to do just that. Instead, I’ll tease the Bucs at home vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bucs have arguably the best defense in the NFL right now, surrendering an impressive 6.5 points per game. For the Packers, Rodgers’s healthy receiver right now is rookie Romeo Doubs. The under is the better play in this game, but for teasing purposes, let’s give Brady the 6 points at home.
Last week, we opened up the NFL season with a 2-2 split. Lamar Jackson and Justin Jefferson did their thing, but Trey Lance and the 49ers forgot to hold up their end of the bargain. Have no fear, we’re at it again in Week 2.
Despite a decent week, we’re switching up the book for Week 2 as these lines come from Draftkings. Switching up the juju will ensure us a winning week.
Packers -10 vs. Bears
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got their asses kicked by the Vikings in Week 1. From dropped passes to blown coverages, it was a rough day at the office for a team expected to challenge for the one seed. Remember last season when the Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints? In Week 2, they went to Lambeau and righted the ship on their way to a 35-17 victory over the Lions.
I’m expecting history to repeat itself. Rodgers owns a 22-5 record against the Bears with an impressive 61 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I still believe the Bears are one of the three worst teams in the league. Besides the toughness of Justin Fields, I learned nothing about the Bears in a torrential downpour victory against the 49ers. The Bears haven’t won in Green Bay since 2015. They’ll have to try again next year because it ain’t happening on Sunday night.
Lions +1 vs. Commanders
I don’t like the Lions. I love the Lions. Detroit is a frisky bunch that usually finds a way to cover. They were 10-7 ATS in 2021. Carson Wentz threw for 313 yards, 4 (!!!) TDs, and 2 INTs a week ago against the Jaguars. Do you think that will happen again? Honestly, no! Dan Campbell gets to celebrate with a nice bite out of a kneecap.
Underdog of the Week: Steelers +3 vs. Patriots
The Patriots are favored only because of this phrase: “Bill Belichick won’t start 0-2.” Belichick owns Tomlin, having won 6 of the last 7 matchups. However, Tom Brady no longer plays QB for the Pats. Why would anyone trust the Patriots offense after putting up 291 yards and 7 points a week ago? I understand Najee Harris (health) and Mitch Trubisky (skills) are limited, and T.J. Watt is out. But, I like the Steelers defense to make life a living hell for Mac Jones as Pittsburgh goes on to win by a field goal.
Teaser: 7 points, Packers -10>-3, Bills -10>-3
Unlike the Packers who are in a bounce back mode, the Bills are looking to keep their foot on the throttle after the Week 1 blowout victory against the Rams. The Titans beat the Bills last year by a field goal, but after their performance against the Giants in Week 1, why would anyone trust this offense? Volume king Derrick Henry had 20 carries for 82 yards against the Giants. The Bills will stack the box and make Ryan Tannehill beat them. Good luck, Tanny, because you won’t outduel Josh Allen.
Be honest. Did you know that the 2022 Emmys are tonight? My guess is no because you’re coming off of a 48-hour football binge which included some pizza, beer, and a dramatic plea for Justin Herbert to throw to Mike Williams.
Ok, that’s just me.
Anyways, television continues to operate at a ridiculously-high level. TV is on a three-year heater where multiple new shows come out of nowhere to dominate pop culture. Severance, Squid Game, Yellowjackets, Abbott Elementary, The White Lotus, and Only Murders in the Building are all first-year shows that had their own moment to shine, which is saying something considering how fast the Internet moves.
It’s competitive as ever this year so once again, I am here to gift you with some predictions. May B̶o̶b̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶R̶h̶e̶a̶ the best nominees win.
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Euphoria (HBO/HBO Max)
Ozark (Netflix)
Severance (Apple TV+)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO/HBO Max)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
SEVERANCE finale: Oh my god. That was one of the most tense, compelling, and dramatic episodes of television I have ever seen. Thank you, @BenStiller. Edge of your seat suspense. That was absolutely fantastic from start to finish. #Severance
You could make cases for Better Call Saul, Severance, Squid Game, Succession, and Yellowjackets. Severance is my favorite new show of the year, and the finale is the best episode of the year—however, good luck dethroning Succession, which also had a tremendous ending.
Who Should Win:Severance
Who Will Win:Succession
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman – Ozark
Brian Cox – Succession
Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Adam Scott – Severance
Jeremy Strong – Succession
That was a pretty damn satisfying finale for BETTER CALL SAUL. What a special show. I will miss it dearly. #bettercallsaul
Did you know that Better Call Saul has zero (0) Emmy wins? Frankly, that’s a crime. I tend to think the Emmy voters will reward Odenkirk at next year’s ceremony, but there’s no time like the present. It’s Bob’s time.
Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul, but every nominee is worthy of this award.
Who Will Win: Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
Laura Linney – Ozark
Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show
Zendaya – Euphoria
Any other year, Melanie Lynskey would be walking away with this award. However, Euphoria’s fifth episode, “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird,” is Zendaya’s crowning achievement in her young career.
Who Should Win: Zendaya – Euphoria
Who Will Win: Zendaya – Euphoria
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun – Succession
Billy Crudup – The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin – Succession
Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
O Yeong-su – Squid Game
Park Hae-soo – Squid Game
John Turturro – Severance
Christopher Walken – Severance
Who Should Win: Kieran Culkin – Succession
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin – Succession
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Patricia Arquette – Severance
Julia Garner – Ozark
HoYeon Jung – Squid Game
Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron – Succession
Sarah Snook – Succession
Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria
[Takes a deep breath. Exhales. Screams.] RHEA SEEHORN. Since it took this long to give Rhea a nomination, I don’t see the Emmys awarding Rhea with the hardware that she deserves. I pray I’m wrong, but when in doubt, pick someone from Succession.
Who Should Win: Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
Who Will Win: Sarah Snook – Succession
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO/HBO Max)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/HBO Max)
Hacks (HBO/HBO Max)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
This category is extremely difficult to predict. Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary are looking to crash the party with strong first seasons.In a perfect world, this award goes to Barry, one of the most impressive shows on television. (Though, it may not be a comedy anymore.)But, I’ll stick with Ted Lasso as it continues to Emmy dominance.
If Jason Sudeikis wins in this category again, Ted Lasso is winning Outstanding Comedy Series. This award should go to Bill Hader, and if he wins, it will be three for three in Lead Actor as Barry Berkman.
Who Should Win: Bill Hader – Barry
Who Will Win: Bill Hader – Barry
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning – The Great
Issa Rae – Insecure
Jean Smart – Hacks
Quinta Brunson has a lot of support for her excellent work in Abbot Elementary, but the Emmys love Jean Smart even more. (Rightfully so. Jean Smart is awesome.)
Who Should Win: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Who Will Win: Jean Smart – Hacks
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan – Barry
Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler – Barry
Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live
NoHo Hank continues to move up my list of the greatest supporting characters in television history. He’s so damn good. #barrypic.twitter.com/8I29YGSlDq
I’m not even changing the picture from last year’s predictions. It’s Hannah Waddingham for the win. However, watch out for Kate McKinnon getting the award as the “cherry on top” of her SNL career.
Ted Lasso / Apple TV+
Who Should Win: Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
Who Will Win: Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
Outstanding Limited Series
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
The toughest category of the night. While preparing for this article, Dopesick was my original selection. After much thought, I’m going with The White Lotus since it will win in a few acting categories.
Who Should Win: Dopesick (Hulu)
Who Will Win:The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Colin Firth – The Staircase
Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage
Michael Keaton – Dopesick
Himesh Patel – Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan – Pam & Tommy
Just give me all of the Andrew Garfield content. All of it. #oscars
Not many people watched Under the Banner of Heaven, but I really dug Andrew Garfield’s performance. It was weird, raw, and emotional. He might be the best working actor in Hollywood. However, I have no problem with Michael Keaton winning the Emmy.
Who Should Win: Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
Who Will Win: Michael Keaton – Dopesick
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Toni Collette – The Staircase
Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
Lily James – Pam & Tommy
Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley – Maid
Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
Out of all the acting nominees, Margaret Qualley in Maid gave one of my five favorite performances. What hurts Qualley’s chances is Maid came out nearly one year ago. Amanda Seyfriend’s Elizabeth Holmes was better than Elizabeth Holmes herself.
Who Should Win: Margaret Qualley – Maid
Who Will Win: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
Will Poulter – Dopesick
Seth Rogen – Pam & Tommy
Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
Steve Zahn – The White Lotus
Who Should Win: Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
Who Will Win: Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Connie Britton – The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus
Mare Winningham – Dopesick
The White Lotus dominance continues.
Who Should Win: Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
Who Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
What are your predictions for the Emmys? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
