College Football Playoffs: The Bullshit Edition

The College Football Playoffs teams were announced this morning and the Top 4 are:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
As we see there is one ACC team (Clemson), one Big XII team (Oklahoma), and two SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama). This leaves the Pac-12 and Big 10 completely out of the playoffs. The ACC and SEC have a systematic advantage in the College Football Playoffs and we the fans are getting screwed. College Football Playoff Committee screwed up putting Alabama in the top 4. They’ve set college football back at least 10 years.
We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference and don’t play good non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be disgusted. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way you should be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.
The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games.
If you have a weak schedule, you should at the very least have to win your conference to get in the top four. If you’re as good as everybody “thinks” you are, then you should have won your conference! However, the committee clearly doesn’t value those things as highly as they should. This is not a diss to Alabama, but a diss to the broken system of college football. The fans continuously get screwed and will continue to get screwed until the schedule imbalance is fixed. The worst part about it is that fans sit up and co-sign this nonsense and don’t demand better.
I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:

You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven-loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses mean an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could possibly beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, let’s compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.
If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half-game less than all other conferences.
In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.
One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in conference play. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.
Now that we are all on the same page in terms of wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake”, which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes”. This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.
I contend that the committee absolutely blew it for college football by putting Alabama in the playoffs. They confirmed that conference championships and schedules don’t matter. This whole system is broken and, in order to fix it, we have to break it again. It stinks for college football fans and gives the SEC and ACC have a systematic advantage while screwing over the Pac-12 and the Big X.
Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:
“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”
-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2018)
So here’s my solution:
1   1.  Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
2   2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
     3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.
I am also open to two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:
1   1.  9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
    2.   8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.
Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier.

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

College Football’s 5 Most Underrated Teams of 2017

The definition of underrate is “to rate or evaluate too low; underestimate.” Here is the 5 college football teams most underestimated for the 2017 season.
Honorable Mention. UCLA- If you have a quarterback you have a chance. If the golden boy Josh Rosen has a good season the Bruins will have a shot to win the Pac-12.
5. Miami– It feels like forever since Miami was good. They fooled you guys in the beginning of last season, but I knew better. This year the Hurricanes return seven starters on a defense that only gave up 18.5 ppg in 2016. Questions about their quarterback have kept expectations low, but their offensive line should be very good. If Miami can get a decent QB out of junior Malik Rosier, true freshmen N’Kosi Perry, Cade Weldon and sophomore Evan Shirreffs, they have a legit shot to win the ACC.
4. NC State– Do not underestimate the quality of this team that finished 7-6 last year. The Wolfpack don’t have the horses to make a run at the ACC Atlantic division, but they have an underrated coach in Dave Doeren. NC State is good enough to hand FSU, Louisville, or Clemson a loss. Last year, the Wolfpack gifted Clemson an overtime victory, and it took a 4th quarter comeback by Florida St to win. Coach Doreen has a veteran offensive line to protect junior QB Ryan Finley. This combo will give the Wolfpack a shot to win every week vs. this tough schedule. A 9-3 finish to the regular season IS possible and would be a huge success, but reality is more around 7-5.
3. Oregon– I can already hear you guys now. Such a homer, of course he says Oregon is underrated. Well, they are. No one has any expectations for the Ducks winning the Pac-12 north after finishing a disaster of a season last year 4-8. The Ducks cleaned house and brought in head coach Willie Taggert from South Florida. Oregon has plenty of talent left on the roster offensively. Justin Herbert showed flashes last year as a true freshman and should have a successful sophomore campaign. Expect to see the Royce Freeman of old running the football. The same cannot be said defensively. The Ducks should be a 9-win team and Pac-12 north champs if they can play a nominal amount of defense this season.
2. Penn St– At the end of the regular season last year, didn’t you feel like Penn St was one of the 4 best teams in the country? I did. This team is good, really good. So how could the Nittany Lions team be underrated? I got two names, Ohio St. and Michigan. It feels like James Franklin is the forgotten man behind Urban Meyer and the Khaki man Jim Harbaugh. Penn St has two of the most exciting players in college football. Their quarterback Trace McSorley reminds me of Johnny Manziel. Defenses can’t tackle RB Saquon Barkley in a phone booth. I am bullish on the scrappy Nittany Lions this year to win the B1G title.
P.S. I hate their non-conference schedule (Akron, Pitt, and Georgia St)!!!

1. Oklahoma St– How bout them COWBOYS! Ok St will come into this season ranking outside of the Top 10, but expect them to finish in the college football playoff. The combination of a light non-conference schedule and playing Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma at home makes for a perfect recipe for 12-0 or 11-1 regular season. Mason Rudolph will be throwing to the #1 receiving corps in the nation. James Washington, Jalen McCleskey, Marcell Ateman, and Tyron Johnson are all studs. Add in running back Justice Hill and it may take a small army to slow Ok St down offensively. The only thing that can derail the Cowboys is Mike Gundy’s bad luck mullet.

5 Most Overrated Teams in College Football

College football season is only a few weeks away. We are already beginning to be flooded with preseason rankings. Here are the teams that will prove themselves overrated this college football season:
Honorable Mention- Louisville. Lamar Jackson fell apart at the end of the season leaving Heisman voters wishing they could get their votes back. He’s a good kid, elite athlete, but he is not elite enough of a passer to lead this team to an ACC title. The Cardinals will likely get to 10 wins due to a non-conference schedule that would make Washington blush.
5. LSU-Please stop trying to sell me on LSU being able to unseat Bama for the SEC West crown. Not happening. Not even if their quarterback Jalen Hurts gets hurt. The Tigers have to get out of the “run and punt” style of offense they had under Les Miles and step in at least a 2010 offense.
In my mind I like the idea Ed Orgeron was hired as head coach. But if I’m judging from his last time he was a head coach without the interim tag (Ole Miss), I realize things could go badly. Derrius Guice might be the nation’s best running back. And as usual the Tigers are stacked with talent on defense with Arden Key (LB) and Donte Jackson (CB) leading the way. Unfortunately, the SEC is Alabama, and everybody else and LSU is an everybody else.
4. Texas-Tom Herman is in, Charlie Strong is out. Texas is back. Texas is a Top 10 team! Slow all the way down and come back in a year or 2. Expectations of burnt orange fans are completely out of whack. But eclipsing the 5 wins from last year shouldn’t be too difficult with this schedule. The Longhorns have talent but depth is an issue, especially on the offensive line. You already know, if you can’t protect your quarterback, you can’t play football. I really hope Shane Buechele’s parents took out an insurance policy on him. He may be running for his life a lot this season. There is good news though. If Tom Herman can keep his QB upright, they have playmakers in Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay at WR. Todd Orlando is the new defensive coordinator and there’s nowhere to go but up from last years’ Swiss cheese D.
3. Florida- Unless Jim McElwain got a Steve Spurier offensive blood transfusion expect to see another season of non-explosive offensive football. The Gators finished 100th in scoring in 2015 and 107th in 2016. This Florida team is underwhelming. I could name a bunch of defensive players that will keep them in games, but I won’t. This team could very well win the SEC East, but if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it did it really happen?
2. Michigan- Back to back years, this is becoming a trend. Aside from games against Penn St and Ohio St, this schedule looks like a snoozer. George, what about Florida week 1 and the Wisconsin game? What about it? Sounds like 13-10 ballgames with teams below average offenses masquerading as defensive juggernauts. Michigan only returns 5 starters, and will be playing a ton of freshman. There is good news Wolverines fans. Jim Harbaugh is your coach. If anyone can grind out a 10 win season on the backs QB Wilton Speight and RB Chris Evans it’s the khaki man.

1. Washington- The Huskies non-conference games with Rutgers, Montana, and Fresno State is somehow weaker than last years schedule. To make their schedule even easier, UW plays Oregon, Washington St, and Utah all at home, and avoids USC altogether. I believe Chris Peterson is a great coach. I believe Washington will have a good running game with Miles Gaskins and Lavon Coleman. I believe D Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski will be able to field a formidable defense despite losing Budda Baker, Sidney Jones, Kevin King, and Elijah Qualls to the NFL. But they will not be battle tested and will probably lose a game because I DO NOT BELIEVE IN JAKE BROWNING. How could I say that? He threw for 3,430 yards and 43TDs last year. Browning was carried by the Husky defense. They created easy scoring opportunities from short fields. He did not impress in games vs. Arizona, Utah, USC, Colorado, and Alabama. Even if Washington does finish undefeated expect to hear grumblings about leaving them out of the Top 4.