Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10: Nobody is Safe From the Upsets

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10

What a crazy week in the Pac-12. Betters everywhere probably lost a mint with all the upsets in week 10. Oregon State beat Colorado. Arizona destroyed Oregon. And Cal beat Washington without scoring an offensive touchdown. The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Oregon State (2-6)

(W) 41-34 Colorado

I apologize to the Beavers. Last week I said, “The Beavers blew their last shot at a Pac-12 win in 2018.” I was wrong. Jonathan Smith inserted Jake Luton at quarterback after halftime, and he torched Colorado’s defense. I know that game is an outlier, but there is part of me that believes the Beavers can beat USC this week.

11. Colorado (5-3) 

(L) 34-41 Oregon State

Oregon State is undoubtedly the worst defense in the Pac-12. Colorado lost a 21 point lead 3rd quarter lead Oregon State and ultimately lost the game. They were still without mid-season All American wide receiver Lavishka Shenault (toe), but there are no excuses for that loss. The Buffaloes have lost three straight games and will need a fantastic effort to get a win against Arizona.

If Mike MacIntyre can’t coach his team to a bowl game his seat will go from warm to scorching hot.

10. UCLA (2-6) 

(L) 10-41 Utah

After winning two consecutive games UCLA ran into the Utah buzzsaw. It didn’t help that they were without their electric true freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson. We don’t know if he will be back this week against Oregon. Chip Kelly will likely pull out all the stops as he returns to Oregon for the first time as an opposing coach. Everyone in the stadium should be prepared for fireworks. UCLA has to believe they can win the game after they saw what Arizona did to Oregon. However, if DTR is not in the lineup, the Bruins don’t stand a chance of walking out of Autzen Stadium with a win.

I will be in attendance at this game and cannot wait. 

9. USC (4-4)

(L) 34-38 Arizona State

It almost feels like Clay Helton is coaching on borrowed time. He has taken over playcalling duties for the Trojans. So, now there are no more excuses allowed for USC’s offense to struggle. They head to Corvallis Saturday to play the Beavers. I would say there is no chance USC loses this game, but Oregon State did beat Colorado last week. There is good news though. USC gets starting quarterback JT Daniels back from concussion protocol for this weeks’ game.

Fans are disappointed, and Athletic Director Lynn Swann may be painted into a corner. He may have to make a change at head coach on the tarmac at the airport (Lane Kiffin style) if the Trojans fall this weekend.

8. Arizona State (4-4)

(W) 38-34 USC

Arizona State had their most impressive offensive performance of the season against USC. N’Keal Harry showed up and showed out. He caught for a touchdown, returned a punt for a touchdown, and made one of the most difficult catches of the 2018 season.

Herm Edwards has his team sitting at 4-4, with a chance to win the Pac-12 South. The future is extremely bright for the Sun Devils. This week a red-hot Utah team comes to Tempe. Will they be able to continue the Pac-12 upsets and defeat the Utes?

7. Washington (6-3)

(L) 10-12 Cal

The Huskies are light years away from the team many people expected to compete for a national championship. Their defense has been the only thing keeping them in games. If not for stout defensive play this team would be 3-5 instead of 5-3. Washington’s offense is painful to watch. Jake Browning has been underwhelming. And the offense has been unable to dominate rushing the football whether Miles Gaskins is in the lineup or not.

Washington gets a chance to bounce back against Stanford. Chris Peterson will have his team prepared, and this will be a heavyweight title fight.

6. Cal (5-3)

(W) 12-10 Cal

If I told you Cal would beat Washington without scoring an offensive touchdown you would have called me a crazy fool. But, the Golden Bears did just that. The job Justin Wilcox and his staff have done with this defense is remarkable. They don’t have 4 and 5* athletes at every position, but they are well coached and play hard. Cal has the top-ranked defense against the pass in the Pac-12. However, they have to travel to Pullman to play the top passer in the nation, Gardner Minshew. Something has to give.

If Cal wins, they will be bowl eligible. That would be a huge accomplishment for the team to make a bowl game out of the most competitive division in college football.

5. Oregon (5-3)

(L) 15-44 Arizona

What on earth happened to the Ducks last week in Tucson? Oregon’s loss to Arizona would have been the most shocking result of the week had Colorado not lost a 21 point halftime lead to Oregon State.

Oregon’s offense has been virtually non-existent the first half of the last two weeks. They have punted nearly 15 times in two games. That is a far departure for the offense that was leading the conference in scoring. Coach Mario Cristobal and offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo need to right the ship this week against UCLA. The Ducks must run the football early and often so Justin Herbert can get open passing lanes for play-action passes.

The next 4 games are crucial to cementing Ducks fans trust in this coaching staff.

4. Arizona (4-5)

(W) 44-15 Oregon

The Pac-12 is insane. How else can you explain Arizona losing to UCLA in week 9, then beating Oregon badly the very next week? The Arizona defense had their most outstanding performance of the year against Oregon. They were fast and extremely physical which was a departure from the swiss cheese defense they displayed through their first eight games.

Now the biggest question is will the Wildcats return back to the team that earned a sub .500 record or have they turned a corner. This week they get Colorado on Friday night.

3. Stanford (5-3)

(L) 38-41 Washington State

David Shaw proved again why he is a great coach. Stanford had been unable to run the ball as effectively as they had in the past. Instead of continuing to beat his teams’ head against a wall, Shaw decided to throw the football a lot. Stanford was extremely successful throwing the ball against Washington State, which is one of the top pass defenses in the conference. KJ Costello threw the ball 43 times for 323 yards and four touchdowns.

Stanford is tough and consistent even in defeat.

2. Utah (6-2)

(W) 41-10 UCLA

The Utes are continuing to steamroll through Pac-12 opponents. They disposed of UCLA pretty easily at the Rose Bowl. Utah’s defense is one of the best in the nation. Zack Moss carried the Utah offense on his back. He finished with 211 rushing yards and three touchdowns. If Utah can run the ball this successfully, they will be tough to beat.

The recipe to beat the Utes is stopping their running game. SOmeone can force Tyler Huntley to throw the ball 30+ times he will throw a few interceptions.

1. Washington State (7-1)

(W) 41-38 Stanford

At this point, I am rooting for the Cougars to finish the season 12-1 including the Pac-12 Championship. The conference needs a representative in the College Football Championship and Washington State is the last hope. It is increasingly frustrating for Pac-12 fans to see the conference with the most parity to consistently be dismissed in conversation.

Mike Leach is an offensive genius, and it will be interesting to see his ‘Air Raid’ offense against the likes of Alabama and Clemson. Gardener Minshew is lighting up the stat sheet for nearly 400 passing yards per game. They will get a real test this week from the stingiest pass defense in the Pac-12.

This could be Leach’s last season in Pullman if the USC job or other top jobs become available.

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via-USA TODAY

Rose Bowl– Michigan vs. Washington State

Holiday– Iowa vs. Washington

San Francisco– Northwestern vs. Stanford

Sun– Boston College vs. Oregon

Alamo– Texas vs. Utah

Texas– Texas Tech vs. Colorado

Cheez-It– Baylor vs. USC

Las Vegas– Utah State vs. Arizona State

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9: New King of the Castle…For Now

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Oregon State (1-6)

(L) Cal 7-49

The Beavers blew their last shot at a Pac-12 win in 2018. They got hammered by Cal. Oregon State is the best team in the Pac-12 rushing the football, but could not do so against Cal. The Beavers are still last in the Pac-12 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, and nearly every other important defensive statistic. Head coach Jonathan Smith has his work cut out for him in recruiting.

11. Arizona (3-5)

(L) 30-31 UCLA

Rhett Rodriguez got his first start of the season at quarterback, and the Arizona offense looked good. He personally did not have a fantastic game as he finished 15/34 with 231 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. However, if not for a fumble on a sure touchdown, and multiple penalties on big plays the Wildcats could have beat UCLA.

The Ducks head down to Tucson this week. Will Khalil Tate be back in the lineup or will he be sidelined for another week?

10. Cal (4-3)

When you look at the 10th ranked Pac-12 team, you might assume they are terrible. That is far from the case for Cal. They are much improved from the cellar dwellers under Sonny Dykes as head coach. They play in the Pac-12 north, which is the toughest division in college football. So, it is going to be extremely difficult to win games.

Cal’s pass defense is 4th best in the Pac-12 in total defense and 2nd against the pass. There is a lot to be excited about for the future of the program. If the Golden Bears can find two wins against Washington, Washington State, USC, Stanford, and Colorado, Justin Wilcox will make his first bowl game as Cal’s head coach.

9. Arizona State (3-4)

(L) 13-20 Stanford

All four of the Sun Devils losses have come by exactly seven points. They are within striking distance in every game. Arizona State is just not making enough plays to consistently win football games. It is not one particular side of the ball to blame. Both the offense and defense have shared responsibility for the losses. Manny Wilkens will need some 300-yard passing games if ASU is going to win three of their next five games (USC, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona) to get bowl eligible.

8. UCLA (2-5) 

(W) 31-30 Arizona

It is a winning streak. The Bruins have won two games in a row, and their offense is running and throwing the ball well. Chip Kelly has his team headed in the right direction. It is not all good news for UCLA. True freshman starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson left the game and never returned. And the Bruins defense allowed big play after big play by Arizona. You could drive a tractor through some of the running lanes.

UCLA has Utah coming in town this week. What if they mess around and…

7. Colorado (5-2) 

(L) 13-27 Washington

Colorado performed admirably on the road against Washington. They were without multiple starters including mid-season All-American wide receiver Lavishka Shenault and were still within four points deep into the 4th quarter. Steven Montez deserves a lot of praise for the Buffaloes 5-2 start. This season he has a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and has eliminated a lot of the silly mistakes he made last season.

Colorado should be bowl eligible after they play Oregon State this weekend. Mike MacIntyre will have at least one more season in Boulder.

6. USC (4-3)

(L) 28-41 Utah

The USC fan base is in full panic mode. They are questioning Clay Helton and his ability to lead the Trojans back to the promised land. It is extremely puzzling how USC has the most talented team in the Pac-12 but isn’t getting result commensurate with that on the field. They have had trouble running the football in the majority of their games.

To make matters even worse, lost JT Daniels and Matt Fink to injury against Utah. USC will likely have to start their 3rd string quarterback Jack Sears Saturday against Arizona State.

It is going to be a long rest of the season for USC.

5. Stanford (5-2)

(W) 20-13 Arizona State

The Cardinal have played seven games, and Bryce Love is leading the team in rushing with a lowly 348 yards. 2018 Stanford cannot run the football effectively. It is time to give up hope that will change this season. Trying to run the ball so much has continuously kept Stanford in 3rd and long situations, which they are last in Pac-12 conversion %.

It is time to for Davis Shaw to fully invest in letting KJ Costello pass the ball on early downs. They need to feed JJ Arcega-Whiteside until the defense loosens up on the run game.

4. Utah (5-2)

(W) 41-28 USC

I cannot fully buy into the Utes offense, even after three straight 40 point outings. However, I am fully buying into them winning the Pac-12 south. They scored a bunch all those points against three defenses that no one would consider top tier. Stanford is uncharacteristically 11th in total defense, Arizona can’t stop a nosebleed, and USC had some of their best defenders out. But, when you play bad defenses, you should treat them like bad defenses, and Utah deserves credit for that.

I am absolutely gushing over their defense. They are only allowing 282 yards per game which is 7th in the nation. And the Utes are only allowing 17.7 points per game.

3. Washington (5-2)

(W) 27-13 Colorado

There was never a doubt in my mind the Huskies would beat Colorado. However, the game was much closer than most people anticipated. It was 17-13 until 3:50 to go in the 4th quarter. Washington then piled on some late style points for those who didn’t see the game. A lot of credit goes to Washington’s second-best Pac-12 defense. Their middle linebacker Ben Bur-Kirven is leading the nation in tackles.

Watching the Huskies is a lot like watching the Michigan Wolverines play this year. You recognize the talent, and the defense is one of the best in the nation. However, their lack of explosiveness offensively hinders both from being national championship threats.

If the Huskies win out, they will be headed to the Pac-12 title game.

2. Oregon (5-2)

(L) 20-34 Washington State

Oregon got a huge wakeup call in the first half of the Washington State game. They were completely shut down offensively. At the half, the Ducks had only gained 50 yards on five possessions. And their defense allowed points on every drive in the first half after the first series interception. There were miscues and missed opportunities all over the place.

After the first half ended 27-0, the Ducks came out and looked like the team ranked #8 in the Unafraid Show top 10 and #12 in the AP poll. They dominated the Cougars in the 2nd half but had dug a hole far too deep.

Now the Ducks need a lot of things to fall their way to get a New Years Day Six Bowl birth.

1. Washington State (6-1)

(W) 34-20 Oregon

There is one stat that shows why Washington State has been so successful this year. Through 7 games Washington State is only allowing Gardner Minshew to be sacked once every 76 snaps. Mike Leach does a masterful job making the opposing defense guard the entire field. He designs plays that get the ball out quickly and have an outlet for when pressure comes. The Cougars are throwing for over 400 yards per game while being the best pass defense in the conference.

I have said it since Week 1; the Cougars appear to be turning a tragedy into a special season. They now have the inside track to the Rose Bowl or College Football Playoffs, and have earned the top stop in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9.

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via-USA TODAY

Rose Bowl– Michigan vs Washington

Holiday– Iowa vs Stanford

San Francisco– Northwestern vs Oregon

Sun– Boston Col vs Utah

Alamo– West Virginia vs Washington St

Texas– TCU vs Arizona St

Cheez-It– Iowa State vs USC

Las Vegas– San Diego State vs Colorado

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8: Bowl Games and CFB Playoffs Up For Grabs

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

The Pac-12 conference had another strong performance on the national scene. Washington and Oregon lived up to all the hype, and the entire country got to see two of the nations best teams. Well, sort of… The game was on ESPN2 in the south.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. Oregon State (1-5)

Oregon State comes off a BYE and plays Cal in Corvallis. The Beavers look to get their first Pac-12 conference win since November of 2016. Their offense has not been the problem this season. They are #1 in the Pac-12 in rushing at 211.8 yards per game, and #3 in total offense with 453.7 ypg. Oregon State’s defense has consistently undone all the great work their offense has done. They are dead last in the conference in scoring defense, rushing defense, pass defense, and total defense.

I am not sure how you win a game with those kinds of stats. Hopefully, head coach Jonathan Smith’s defense has made some adjustments over the BYE week.

11. Cal (3-3)

After the first three weeks of the season, Cal was looking like a team that could end up in a bowl game. After dropping three straight games against Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA, their bowl game chances look bleak. The Golden Bears defense was highly ranked and appeared to be the strength of their team through their first three games. Last week’s 37-7 loss to winless UCLA has to be concerning for head coach Justin Wilcox.  They gave up 37 points to the worst offense in the Pac-12. This week Cal has to try and stop Oregon State’s #1 rushing offense in the Pac-12.

Cal’s offense has to step it up. They rank #11 in the Pac-12 in both scoring offense (23.0 ppg), and passing offense (214.5).

10. Arizona (3-4)

Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate did not finish last week’s game against Utah, and head coach Kevin Sumlin said he will not play Saturday at UCLA. Rhett Rodriguez, son for former Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez, will get the start. Rodriguez should give Arizona a boost in their passing efficiency but is nowhere near the dynamic athlete running the ball that Tate is.

The Wildcats have a 3-4 record because they are statistically middle of the road Pac-12 offense and bottom third defense. This game against UCLA will be a pivotal game in deciding whether Arizona gets a bowl game.

9. UCLA (1-5) 

Bruins are relieved to know their team will not go defeated this year (0-12). Chip Kelly found a way to get his team which ranks last in the conference in points per game to score 37 points against Cal. UCLA has a chance to get their second win in a row against a struggling Arizona team. The game seems to be slowing down for true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He looks more comfortable passing the ball and continues to show flashes that he can be a special player.

The last two games have catapulted UCLA from the worst rushing offense in the Pac-12 at under 100 yards per game to 9th. Their defensive improvement has been a pleasant surprise. Bruins held Washington in check and shut Cal down in their last two games. Can they put together three straight solid defense games?

8. Arizona State (3-3)

The most intriguing team in the PAC-12 this season has been Arizona State. I am still not sure what to make of Herm Edwards’ team. Are they more the team that beat Michigan State or are they the team that lost to San Diego State? ASU comes off of a bye week and gets a huge test with Stanford coming in town. Manny Wilkins and their offensive coordinator have to find a way to get N’keal Harry the football more.

7. Stanford (4-2)

I am absolutely sure that David Shaw and the smart guys at Stanford did a lot of analytics number crunching over their BYE week. The “intellectual brutality” offense we are familiar with seeing has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are typically one of the top-rated rushing offenses in the country and the Pac-12. However, injuries to Bryce Love and poor offensive line play have their offense only managing 85.7 rushing yards per game. Their inability to run the football keeps them in 3rd and long situations which have translated to a Pac-12 worst 32.9% 3rd down conversion rate.

Stanford must rebound after ugly losses to Notre Dame and Utah. However, they still control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North but must win out.

6. Colorado (5-1) 

People tried to convince me that Colorado was a real threat to win the Pac-12 after starting 5-0. The Buffaloes suffered a bunch of injuries in the USC game, including their mid-season All American wide receiver Laviska Shenault. But, they weren’t winning that game if everybody had remained healthy. Statistically, Colorado is top four in the Pac-12 in scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency, opponent first downs, and a whole bunch of other categories. The reality is their opponents have a combined record of 12-25.

The Buffaloes travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies on Saturday. A win would go a long way to ensuring Mike McIntyre is the coach next season.

5. Utah (4-2)

I could not believe my eyes. Utah scored 40 points in consecutive games. It appears Kyle Whittingham’s team has turned a corner offensively. Tyler Huntley is being efficient passing the ball, and Zach Moss is 3rd in the Pac-12 in rushing with 102 yards per game. Granted, they played a beat up Stanford team and a defensive disaster in Arizona. The Utes defense is for real. They lead the conference in opponent first downs, scoring defense, and total defense.

The Utes get a huge home test against USC this weekend. If they win, they will have a shot to earn their first Pac-12 South crown.

4. USC (4-2)

Clay Helton got a much-needed win against Colorado. True freshman quarterback JT Daniels did not start sharp but ultimately finished with 283 passing yards with three touchdowns. The Trojans will need to improve their -6 turnover margin on the season if they hope to keep the lead in the Pac-12 South.

USC lost their best pass rusher Porter Gustin for the season. If the Trojans can get past the next two weeks against Utah and Arizona State, their schedule appears to get a little lighter with Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA.

3. Washington State (5-1)

We will find out what Gardner Minshew and Washington State are made out of as the Oregon Ducks roll into Pullman this weekend. The Cougars boast the Pac-12’s best passing offense (413.7 ypg), and 2nd best defense in terms of yards allowed per game (313.7). Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense is very capable of exploiting the Oregon secondary that ranks 10th in the conference in defensive pass efficiency.

2. Washington (5-2)

The Huskies are a top tier football team. They were a missed 37 yard FG away from beating Oregon for the 3rd straight year. Now, Washington looks to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss against their bitter rival Oregon. Teams are 0-5 on the season after playing a physical game against the Ducks. Chris Peterson is a great coach and should have his team up for the task against Colorado. Their defense continues to show up and be tough. The Huskies offense must improve their explosiveness. The lack of big plays seems the difference between the 2017 and 2018 Huskies teams.

There is still a chance the Huskies can win the Pac-12 and play in either the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.

1. Oregon (5-1)

The Ducks have earned the #1 spot in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8. They gutted out a win against a very good Washington team. Oregon suffered a major injury in the against Washington. Their true freshman left tackle Penei Sewell is scheduled to miss significant time with a leg injury.

Justin Herbert continues to lead the conference in passing efficiency (171.2). The Ducks offense seems unstoppable at this point, but their defense will get a huge test this weekend at Washington State. We saw the Ducks respond well after a tough loss to Stanford. How will they handle the success of a big win?

Oregon has positioned themselves to potentially earn a spot in the college football playoffs.

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games

Pac-12 Football Week 7

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games is literally everything you need to know about Pac-12 football compiled in one spot. I have included the schedule, standings, power rankings, and most important offensive and defensive stats. Next week it will be even more aesthetically pleasing.

Schedule

There are two very important games in the Pac-12 this week. Both Washington vs. Oregon and Colorado vs USC could have an impact on the College Football Playoffs. If Colorado can remain undefeated and Oregon or Washington have one loss until the Pac-12 Championship game, the winner could earn a seat in the top four.

Bye – Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State

Pac-12 Standings Week 7

Washington, Washington State, and Stanford all control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North. If they win all the rest of their games, they will win the division. Oregon needs to win the rest of their games and have Stanford lose one more conference game.

 

NORTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Washington 3-0 5-1 175 82 2-0 2-1 Won 5
Washington State 2-1 5-1 25` 143 3-0 1-1 Won 2
Stanford 2-1 4-2 154 132 3-1 1-3 Lost 2
Oregon 1-1 4-1 228 122 3-1 1-0 Won 1
California 0-2 3-2 131 124 2-1 1-1 Lost 2
Oregon State 0-3 1-5 189  282 1-1 0-3 Lost 3

Colorado and USC are the only teams that control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South.

SOUTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Colorado 2-0 5-0 189 92 3-0 2-0 Won 5
USC 2-1 3-2 123 131 2-0 1-2 Won 2
Arizona 2-1 3-3 182 159 1-2 1-1 Won 1
Utah 1-2 3-2 129 86 1-1 2-1 Won 1
Arizona State 1-2 3-3 179  127 3-0 0-3 Lost 1
UCLA

USA Today Pac-12 Bowl Projections

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl—Washington vs Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl—Stanford vs Michigan

San Francisco Bowl—Washington State vs Nevada

Sun Bowl—Arizona State vs Florida State

Alamo Bowl—Colorado vs Texas

Cheez-It Bowl—Utah vs Iowa State

First Responders Bowl—Cal vs Wake Forest

Las Vegas Bowl—USC vs San Diego State

Unafraid Show Pac-12 Power Ranking

  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. Colorado
  4. USC
  5. Washington State
  6. Utah
  7. Stanford
  8. Arizona State
  9. Arizona
  10. Cal
  11. UCLA
  12. Oregon State

See full rankings

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Offensive Stats

 

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Defensive Stats

 

 

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7: Bad Blood and Razor Thin Margins

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here. Respect is earned, not given.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. Oregon State (1-5)

(L) Washington State 37-56

I spent a lot of time deciding on #11-12 in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7. How do you choose between a winless team who has played a solid schedule (UCLA) and a team that has only beaten Southern Utah (OSU)? Jermar Jefferson is the best thing the Beavers have going. The freshman has rushed for nearly 900 yards and 12 touchdowns through six games this season. The future for Oregon State is brighter than the present.

11. UCLA (0-5) 

(L) Washington 24-31

If there were moral victories in sports, UCLA would have one for how they played against Washington. The Bruins had multiple opportunities to tie the game in the 4th quarter, but could not capitalize. Dorian Thompson-Robinson made some really good throws and showed flashes of future greatness. Another bright spot was UCLA’s ability to run the football at will against a typically stout Washington defense.

I 100% believe that the Bruins would beat the Beavers if they played this season. They have a chance to get their first win against Cal this weekend.

10. Cal (3-2)

(L) Arizona 17-24

If Brandon McIlwain can stop throwing the ball to the other team Cal will win some Pac-12 games. He looks to be Khalil Tate 2.0; a dynamic athlete at quarterback, but also has solid passing skills. If Justin Wilcox can get his young quarterback to take care of the football a bowl game is in their future. The Golden Bears defense has remained solid even into Pac-12 play. The Bruins head to Cal this week, which should be a very “winnable” game for both teams.

9. Arizona (3-3)

(W) Cal 24-17

Until Khalil Tate is fully healthy and can run the football, Arizona is not a real threat to the upper class of the Pac-12. The Wildcats need his legs to be as much of a threat as his arm. Last year Khalil Tate rushed for over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. This year, Tate only has 110 rushing yards through 6 games. A Pac-12 South title is still in reach for Arizona. Utah comes to Tucson Friday for what is essentially a must-win for the Wildcats.

8. Arizona State (3-3)

(L) Colorado 21-28

Arizona State is sitting at a 3-3 record. It doesn’t feel like they are overachieving or underachieving. They seem to be in a perfect spot when measured against preseason expectations. They are struggling to get off the field defensively. The Sun Devils allow the most first downs per possession in the Pac-12. Also, Herm Edwards has to find a way to get his team to close out games. All three of their losses have come by seven points.

7. Stanford (4-2)

(L) Utah 21-40

How the mighty have fallen. Stanford was king of the Pac-12 Power Rankings for the first five weeks of the season. I’m not sure what is going on, but the “intellectual brutality”we had grown accustomed to has been conspicuously absent since the Oregon game. A BYE in week seven should allow the Cardinal ample opportunity to recalibrate and refocus. They must be perfect down the stretch if they want to win the Pac-12 North title.

6. Utah (3-2)

(W) Stanford 40-21

How on earth did Utah score 40 points on Stanford? Utah had not scored more than 24 points against FBS competition this season. The Utes offense is still underwhelming, but their defense did a great job of forcing four turnovers, which led to a lot of scoring opportunities. We will see if Utah can repeat their dynamic offensive and defensive performance this week against Arizona.

5. Washington State (5-1)

(W) Oregon State 56-37

There is no team that I am happier about their success than the Cougars. It would have been easy for them to mail the season in after Tyler Hilinski’s suicide. But, they have come out and fought hard and won games. Gardner Minshew has been so impressive at quarterback that he has drawn the eye of NFL scouts. He may have to put his coaching dreams on hold for NFL paychecks.  They get a much-deserved BYE this week. Mike Leach knows the rest of the schedule will be tough as they have Stanford, Oregon, and Washington still on the schedule.

4. USC (3-2)

BYE

This week is the most important game of the season for USC. If they beat Colorado, the team has a shot to rekindle the energy and excitement of their 2016 Rose Bowl season. If they lose to Colorado, the Clay Helton boo-birds will be out in full force.

3. Colorado (5-0)

(W) Arizona State 28-21

We all keep waiting for Cinderella’s glass slipper to fall off, but the Buffaloes refuse to let it go! Steven Montez and crew keep putting up solid offensive performances. They rank third in the conference in percentage of possessions that end in touchdowns (36.4%). And their defense is one of the stingiest in the Pac-12. If you haven’t seen the Buffaloes electric wide receiver Laviska Shenault, don’t worry, you will see a ton of him Saturday versus USC.

2. Oregon (4-1)

BYE

The Ducks got a week off and who knows what they will have up their sleeves for Huskies week. Revenge has been on Oregon’s mind since being embarrassed in 2016 by Jake Browning and the Huskies at Autzen Stadium. This game is the most bitter rivalry in the conference besides UCLA vs. USC. The loser will be the subject of ridicule for an entire year.

After watching Washington play UCLA last week, we could have a new #1 team in the Pac-12 Power Rankings after the game. Huck the Fuskies!

1. Washington (5-1)

(W) UCLA 31-24

Washington continues to win football games. I am extremely concerned about how this team faired against UCLA. The Huskies may have looked past UCLA to next week’s date at Oregon. However, their usually very stout defense was porous against the Bruins. Jake Browning’s steady play at quarterback has made Washington tough to beat. He rarely makes mistakes, and give his team a chance to win every game, but won’t be a superhero. Browning is the Alex Smith of college quarterbacks.

It is Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks this weekend. The winner of this game will have the inside track if the Pac-12 gets a spot in the College Football Playoffs.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6: Make or Break Matchups

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

Conference Play is in Full Swing

Welcome to the Unafraid Show Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6 by SportsPac12. If you are a Pac-12 fan, aside from Unafraid Show, SportsPac12 is the twitter feed you need to follow! Former sportswriter & columnist who has covered three different Pac-12 schools provides up to date stats and information on every team in the Conference of Champions.

See where all the teams stand in the Unafraid Show Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

Arizona State (3-2) at #21 Colorado (4-0)

Saturday, October 6, 1:00 p.m., Pac-12 Network

Folsom Field, Boulder, CO

Straight-Up: Arizona State in a Close Win

Against the Spread: Arizona State (+3)

Having dispatched four teams with a combined 1-16 mark, it’s time for the Buffs to prove they’re worthy of their ranking. CU quarterback Steven Montez leads the nation in completion percentage, and his connection with wideout Laviska Shenault has been deadly. But Montez has yet to be pressured the way he’s likely to be pressured by ASU’s Merlin Robertson, Malik Lawal, and Darius Slade, who have three sacks each on the season. Collectively, ASU defenders average nearly four sacks per game. The Devils also have the advantage of having played in three big games already. Arizona State’s defense should limit Colorado’s explosive offense just enough to prevail in a close, back-and-forth game.

Notes: The Sun Devils lead the all-time series 8-1, with the lone loss coming in Boulder in 2016, and are averaging 38.9 points per game against the Buffs. Remarkably, no ASU running back has lost a fumble (or even put the ball on the ground) in 669 consecutive carries, over 24 straight games. Colorado is 4-0 for the first time since 1998. Under Mike MacIntrye, the Buffs are 16-0 when holding opponents to 17 points or less. Shenault leads the nation with 9.5 receptions and 145.3 yards per game.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

#10 Washington (4-1) at UCLA (0-4)

Saturday, October 6, 4:30 p.m. PT, FOX

Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

Straight-Up: Washington  in a Blowout Win

Against the Spread: Washington  (-21.5)

History suggests Washington could struggle at UCLA on Saturday: The Huskies have lost eight straight in Pasadena, dating back to 1995. But UW coach Chris Petersen wouldn’t know anything about that, having never coached in the Rose Bowl. Nor would he care. The Bruins will be outmanned at nearly every position, despite having recruited nearly equivalent talent, based on stars and ratings. In actuality, this might be the biggest Conference mismatch of the season, giving Jake Browning a chance to extend his school records in passing and total offense, while enabling Myles Gaskin to pop off a 200-yard game. Unless, unless . . . Chip Kelly has at least one trick up his sleeve this year, doesn’t he?

 

Notes: The Bruins lead the all-time series 40-31-2, but lost last year’s meeting in Seattle, 44-33. The winning team has scored 40+ points in the last three games. By contrast, Washington hasn’t given up more than 35 points in 49 straight contests—dating back to when the Dawgs surrendered 44 points to UCLA in 2014. Gaskin needs just seven yards to move past Chris Polk into second on the all-time UW rushing list. UCLA will be looking to avoid a 0-5 start for the first time since 1943.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

Washington State (4-0) at Oregon State (1-4)

Saturday, October 6, 6:00 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Network

Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR

Straight-Up Pick: Washington State in a Comfortable Win

Against the Spread: Washington State (-17)

The Cougars showed some welcome defensive maturity last week against Utah, and that figures to be a problem for the Beavers. Oregon State is a year or so away from being able to match any team stop-for-stop. The Beavs would prefer a high-scoring shootout, giving Jermar Jefferson a chance to run wild like he did in Tempe. Both teams are likely to trade big plays at some point, with Gardner Minshew and Easop Winston getting the better of the exchange. Expect OSU to keep it close for a quarter or so, only to watch WSU pull away in the second half. Whatever the outcome between these two loose and confident-playing teams, it should prove entertaining.

Notes: The Cougars lead the all-time series with the Beavers 52-47-3, and have won four straight after posting a 52-23 victory in Pullman last season. With their 28-24 win over Utah, the Cougars have won 10 straight home games for the first time since 1933. OSU relied heavily on Jefferson’s 254 yards against Arizona State, allowing him to break his own Pac-12 single-game rushing record for freshmen, set earlier this season against Southern Utah.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

Cal (3-1) at Arizona (2-3)

Saturday, October 6, 7:00 p.m. PT, FS1

Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

Straight-Up: Cal in a Close Win

Against the Spread: Cal (-2.5)

Fast and shifty Cal quarterback Brandon McIlwain showed he can be as dangerous as Khalil Tate last week, running the ball for 123 yards against Oregon. Given Arizona’s defensive woes, that comparison could be on full display this week in Tucson, provided McIlwain can pass well enough to keep Chase Garbers off the field. The Wildcats, meanwhile, struggled to put up 20 points on a mistake-prone and porous USC defense. They’ll need Tate to run and throw much better than his sub-50 completion percentage and 38 yards on the ground to score as much or more against a tougher Cal defense. The Bears are giving up points on less than 20% of their opponents’ possessions.

Notes: Arizona leads the all-time series 17-14-2, having won the last four. The last two have come down to the final play, including last year’s double-overtime contest in Berkeley. Look for Cal to strike early, having scored first in all four games this season. Arizona forced three fumbles Saturday against USC, recovering all three, marking the first time the Wildcats have recovered three fumbles in a single game since 2016. Bears linebacker Evan Weaver posted a career-high 14 tackles against Oregon; he leads the Conference with 13.2 tackles per game.

Pac-12 Football Predictions Week 6

Utah (2-2) at #14 Stanford (4-1)

Saturday, October 6, 7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN

Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA

Straight-Up: Utah in a Close Win

Against the Spread: Utah (-4)

Who needs this game more? A loss could prove disastrous for Utah, whereas Stanford runs the risk of a Notre Dame hangover: The classic elements of a trap game. As good as K.J. Costello and JJ Arcega-Whiteside have been, the Cardinal appear to have become too pass-dependent with Bryce Love struggling. Utah’s defense, which held the Cougars to 0 yards rushing last week, could cause Stanford more problems than the Irish. Offensively, Tyler Huntley played more like a dual-threat quarterback against WSU, rushing and throwing for a combined 206 yards, while freeing up Zach Moss to post his second 100-yard game. Don’t be surprised if Utah hangs around, stealing this one by a field goal.

Notes: The all-time series between the two teams is tied 4-4, though Utah has won three of the last four. Stanford ended a three-game losing streak to the Utes last year with a 23-20 victory in Salt Lake City. The Cardinal has an active 11-game home winning streak—the longest since a 17-game streak from 2011 to 2014—but the Utes are 3-0 in Stanford Stadium. In good hands: The Cardinal have not lost a fumble through the first five games, one of only four teams in the nation to do so. Huntley’s season-high 88 yards rushing against WSU matched his career high.

Leave a comment or voice your opinions at ImMad@unafraidshow.com

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6: Contenders and Pretenders Reveal Themselves

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6:

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here. Respect is not given, it is earned.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. UCLA (0-4) 

(L) Colorado 16-38

I believed UCLA had a shot to beat Colorado coming off their bye week. The Bruins put up a fight for the first half, but then it all went left after halftime. Their defense appeared to either tire out or lose mental focus in the second half. The schedule only gets rougher for Chip Kelly’s team for the rest of the season. I am not sure where this team finds a win. They can’t go 0-12 right?

11. Oregon State (1-4)

(L) 24-52 Arizona State

There are two stats that give you a lot of insight into the 2018 Beavers. Oregon State has allowed their opponent’s explosion plays of 30 yards or more 14 times in their first five games, which is worst in the Pac-12. They are also getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. Both of those stats mean there are only two things wrong with the Beavers: their offense, and their defense.

1o. Arizona (2-3)

(L) USC 20-24

Arizona has been doing a decent job of scoring since their disastrous first two games against BYU and Houston. Their biggest problem this season has been their defense. The Wildcats are only forcing turnovers on 5.9% of their opponent’s drives. And are only getting a sack on every 24 pass attempts. The good news for Arizona is that none of the teams in the South are particularly tough, and they still have a chance to win the division. However, the likelyhood seems low at this point.

9. Utah (2-2)

(L) Washington State 24-28

The Utes had their highest scoring game of the season last week (against a team not named Weber State). Their defense continuously shows up, but their offense fails to score enough points. It is always tough to win a lot of college football games when you only score 22 points per game. It is time to accept that the Utes are the same team they have been for the last 3-4 years.

8. Arizona State (3-2)

(W) Oregon State 52-24

The Sun Devils beat Oregon State soundly, as they were supposed to do. I’m still unsure what to make of a team that beats a pretty highly regarded Michigan State team only to turn around and lose the next week to San Diego State. Over the next month, Arizona State has Colorado, Stanford, and USC on the schedule. They could either go 3-0 or 0-3. This team is the best in the conference in turnover margin at +5. So, that should help.

7. Washington State (4-1)

(W) Utah 28-24

The Cougars offense is impressive. My heart says Wazzu looks like a top five Pac-12 team, but my head remembers their best win is against Utah. The Cougars only give up one sack every 58 pass attempts. The next closest team is Arizona State with one sack for every 35 attempts. If Washington State can continue to keep Gardener Minshew upright, they could knock off one of the North division heavy hitters.

6. USC (3-2)

(W) Arizona 24-20

The only reason USC has three wins is that they have the more talent than the teams they played. They are doing everything that typically results in losses. The Trojans are 11th in the Pac-12 in turnover margin, average under one touchdown pass per game, and give up the second most explosive plays of 30 yards to opponents. A lot of people are high on the Trojans winning the Pac-12 South; I am not. The team is talented enough to finish the season 10-2 but are more likely to finish 8-4.

5. Cal (3-1)

(L) Oregon 24-42

The Golden Bears have to figure out their quarterback situation. It is clear their offense is more explosive with Brandon McIllwain under center, but Chase Garbers is a better passer. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but their offense has to step up. Cal had a good start to the season, but the road only gets tougher from here. They still have games against Washington, Washington State, and Stanford left on the schedule. Cal is well coached, but they are short on talent to be highly competitive in the north division.

4. Colorado (4-0)

(W) UCLA 38-14

Colorado has earned their seat in the #4 slot of the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6. However, I do not trust they are good enough to run the gauntlet ahead of them. Through four games, their offensive and defensive stats have been very impressive. But all four of their wins are against sub top 50 college football teams. If they can get past Arizona State this weekend, I will trust them more.

3. Stanford (4-1)

(L) Notre Dame 17-38

The Stanford offense and defense looked exactly the same against Notre Dame as it did against Oregon through three quarters. They were dominated. I am truly questioning my prediction of Stanford winning the conference. Bryce Love is injured and KJ Costello looked rather average against a good Notre Dame team. The Cardinal are trending in the wrong direction. But I realize David Shaw is good for 10+ wins per year, so he should get things turned around.

2. Oregon (4-1)

(W) Cal 42-24

Oregon bounced back from one of the most heart-breaking losses in recent memory. Teams often let a loss like that affect the next game, but the Ducks didn’t. This team is physical and talented. There is an outside chance this team could pull and Alabama and make the College Football Playoffs without winning the conference. Oregon is the best team in the conference offensively, and one of the best defensively as well. All eyes will be on their matchup against Washington in two weeks.

1. Washington (4-1)

(W) BYU 35-7

The Huskies have earned the top spot in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6. Jake Browning had another solid week against BYU. Washington’s defense seems to be getting more and more stingy each week. They are best in the conference against the pass and have only allowed two explosive plays over 30 yards through five games. Oregon and Stanford are the only two teams that actually stand in the way of the Huskies winning the conference.

Leave a comment or voice your opinions at ImMad@unafraidshow.com

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