NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Time to take stock of my NFL bets. The good: I continue to nail the underdog of the week. The bad: The best bets have been mediocre. That said, Week 12 is when I get back to .500.

*Lines as of 11/27 at 9:00 AM ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Dolphins -14 vs. Texans

I hate betting double-digit lines. However, the Texans are the NFL’s worst team by a country mile. Houston will turn to QB Kyle Allen in this game, which means the fourth-worst offense in terms of rushing yards per game will try to run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball some more. There is the trap game narrative with the Dolphins facing the 49ers this week, but I don’t see the Dolphins’ offense struggling against a Texans defense that allows 389.6 yards per game. Coach Mike McDiesel will have the Fins ready.

49ers -8.5 vs. Saints

Not to be that guy, but I predicted the 49ers to make the Super Bowl before the season began. After last week’s beatdown against the Cardinals, I feel great about my selection. The Niners have arguably the best roster in the NFL, with studs at every key position besides QB. I’m a Jimmy G guy, and I believe he can make the Super Bowl for the second time. Five of the Niners’ six wins have been by double digits, and the injury-riddled Saints could be missing DE Cam Jordan and CB Marshon Lattimore, who hasn’t played since Week 5. I’ll take the Niners to suck the life out of the Saints.

NFL Week 12 Underdog of the Week

Falcons +3.5 vs. Commanders

As someone who has nailed the underdog of the week all season, this is the first week where a game did not jump out to me upon my first viewing of the lines. After perusing the lines, I settled on the Falcons +3.5, who are 7-4 ATS in 2022. The Commies might be the hottest team in football, with a record of 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6. Taylor Heincke is a fun story as the Commies make a play for a wild card. This will come down to the Falcons’ third-best rushing attack (159.4 yards per game) vs. the sixth-best rushing defense (103.1 yards per game). The Falcons might be missing RB Caleb Huntley while the Commies will be without LB Cole Holcomb, and Chase Young will not make his debut. I’ll take the Falcons to cover in a close one.

NFL Week 12 Teaser of the Week

7 POINTS: Dolphins -14 > -7, 49ers -8.5 > -1.5

I have to stop overthinking things. The Dolphins and the 49ers are going to win this week. Why bring other teams into the mix? If the Dolphins win, it’s not going to be close. If the Niners win, recent history says it won’t be close. Don’t let me down, Mike and Kyle.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 6-11-1

Underdog of the Week: 6-3

Teaser of the Week: 4-5

Total: 16-19-1

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

It’s honesty hour in my betting column. It hasn’t been a good year for me. My bets of the week have been less than stellar. However, I somehow nail the underdog of the week more often than not. Plus, the teasers have been solid. With all of this information, should I sit out for Week 11 Best Bets?

Not a chance.

*Lines as of 11/19 at 4:00 PM ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

Eagles vs. Colts Over 45.5

Last week, I chose the Raiders because I had no idea what to expect from Jeff Saturday. Once Matt Ryan was named the starter, I immediately regretted my decision to bet on the Raiders. Unfortunately for Indy, the pissed-off Eagles are coming to town after their first loss of the season. Both teams will look to establish the run early, but Indy does a much better job stopping it (10th-ranked rushing defense) than Philly (20th-ranked rushing defense). For the over, Philly is 6-3 while Indy is 2-8. I’m expecting the Eagles to establish their first-half scoring dominance (19.4 points per first half) and Indy to get a few garbage scores to satisfy the over.

Bills vs. Browns Over 49.5

If this game was in the Buffalo snowstorm, the o/u would have been set at 19.5. With the venue change to Detroit, the points will soon follow. The Browns have the best over record in the NFL at 6-2-1. They average the 5th most rushing yards per game in the league. However, the Browns can’t stop a nosebleed as they give up the second-most points per game at 26.4. Even though the under has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games, Josh Allen and the Bills are determined to prove that they belong at the top of the AFC. Expect the Bills to make a statement on offense, leading to a victory and more importantly, the over.

NFL Week 11 Underdog of the Week

Chargers +5.5 vs. Chiefs

The Chargers always play Mahomes tough. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. Four of the last five games between these two teams have been decided by 6 points or less. The Chiefs are 26-3 in regular season games played in November or later since 2019. However, Mahomes will be without Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. For the Chargers, Just Herbert could be getting back his top two receivers, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. If the Chargers get both of those guys back, they’re good enough to cover the line.

NFL Week 11 Teaser of the Week

7 POINTS: Bills -7.5 > -.5, Vikings +1.5 > +8.5

Sunday’s teaser is brought to you by the “bounce-back game” and the “come back to Earth game.” Josh Allen is not living up to the MVP expectations placed upon him at the beginning of the year. Blowing second half leads to the Jets and Vikings in losing efforts is unacceptable. Leading the league in interceptions isn’t the end of the world, but making reckless throws into tight coverage, like last week’s game-sealing INT, is a big deal! With the game in the Detroit dome due to the weather, I’m expecting the Bills to come out with a chip on their shoulder and score, score, and score.

The Vikings are still high off their upset win over the Bills. This week screams letdown, which is why the Cowboys are favored over the Vikings by a point and a half. The Dallas defense will keep this a low-scoring affair, but that same defense allows the 3rd most rushing yards per game (143.1). Have fun stopping Dalvin Cook! This game feels like a coin flip, and the Vikings are too talented to lose by more than a touchdown, even if they’re due for regression.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 5-10-1

Underdog of the Week: 5-3

Teaser of the Week: 4-4

Total: 14-17-1

NFL Week 10 Best Bets

I’m wedding-ed out. After 7 weddings in 15 months, I am #done for the year. Why does this matter to you? I won’t miss another weekly best bets column like I did last week for a (you guessed it) wedding. I will be better, and after a 3-1 Week 8, I’m on the right track. Here’s to a winning Week 10.

*Lines as of 11/13 at 11:30 AM ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 10 Best Bets

Eagles -6 1H vs. Commanders

I am going back to the well until further notice. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in the 1st half. They average a league-best 20 points per game in the first half. Do you know who ranks 31st in 1st half scoring? The Washington Commanders with a measly average of 6.0 points. The Eagles have a problem with taking their foot off the gas in the second half, but that doesn’t matter for this bet. Expect a few Jalen Hurts TDs in the first half for the cover.

Raiders -4.5 vs. Colts

All of the signs say to bet on the Raiders. Jeff Saturday has never coached a game at the NFL or collegiate level. No one on that staff has ever called offensive plays. The Colts are starting a rookie QB. Once again, this should be easy money. But, the Raiders love to lose. Three blown leads of 17 points this season is no Bueno. I have no evidence to support this theory, but my guess is the entire NFL coaching community wants the Raiders to blow out the Colts because of the Saturday decision.

NFL Week 10 Underdog of the Week

Packers +3.5 vs. Cowboys

Full disclosure, I wrote a paragraph on why the Steelers should be the underdog of the week at +1.5 at home against the Saints. This was yesterday (Nov. 12). I woke up this morning and the line was -1 Steelers. Classic! So I’m calling an audible and trusting a team that should not be trusted, the Green Bay Packers. This is a kitchen sink game for the Packers. If you think they have a shot at the playoffs, they need to play well today. The Packers surprisingly allow the second-least amount of passing yards per game. In that same category, Dallas surrenders the fourth least. Expect a lot of runs and if Zeke Elliot can’t go, I’ll take the tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon over a lone Tony Pollard. This game should be close so I’m siding with Rodgers (for one final time) to cover.

NFL Week 10 Teaser of the Week

7 points: Chiefs -9.5 > -2.5, 49ers -7.5 > -.5

The Chiefs should be able to take care of the Jaguars at home. I would consider taking the 9.5 points because the Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. In the Bay area, the 49ers is my Super Bowl representative out of the NFC. After the CMC trade, I feel even more confident that they can win the NFC. Plus, they’re getting healthy again. Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, and Elijah Mitchell should all be making their returns. For the Chargers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will both be out. I expect a close game, but all the 49ers have to do is win. I’ll take my chances.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 5-8-1

Underdog of the Week: 4-3

Teaser of the Week: 3-4

NFL Week 8 Best Bets

Last week, I did not bet on any games. I turned my attention toward my best friend’s wedding (not the movie). Therefore, I did not write up my best bets for Week 7.

After my 0-4 week in Week 6, maybe some time off will change my luck for Week 8.

Maybe not…

*Lines as of 10/29 at 2:00 PM ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 8 Best Bets

Falcons -4 vs. Panthers

I have something to get off my chest. Why does Arthur Smith hate Kyle Pitts and Drake London? Take this with a grain of salt because I’m a Pitts fantasy owner. It’s been a disaster, but Smith is doing nothing to get Pitts and London involved in the offense. I don’t want to hear how Smith is designing plays for his most talented pass-catchers. Enough! Find a way to get your best players the ball. Rant over.

Despite my hatred for Coach Smith’s strategy, the Falcons are tied for the best record ATS at 6-1. They run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. (6th against the run in terms of yards per game.) I have no explanation for how the Panthers beat the Bucs. It will be an ugly game, but the Falcons should come out on top.

Eagles -6 1H vs. Steelers

The Eagles are the best team in the NFC. They are 4th in points per game and give up the fourth least points per game. Jalen Hurts might win the MVP if he continues his production and leads Philly to a 1-seed. However, they have one glaring issue. The Eagles do not know how to score in the second half. It is an anomaly. The Eagles average 5.8 points in the second half, which is 30th in the NFL. On the flip side, the Eagles are the highest-scoring offense in the first half and it ain’t close. (21 first-half points per game. Second place is 16 points.) Philly is 6-0 ATS in the first half. Let’s hope that trend continues.

NFL Week 8 Underdog of the Week

Browns +3.5 vs. Bengals

If Ja’Maar Chase was playing, I would be staying away from this game. With Chase out, I’m back in on the Browns. Cleveland sneakily owns the Bengals as the Browns are winners of the past four matchups and seven of the last eight. Nick Chubb, the NFL’s leading rusher, should find success against an average Bengals rushing defense. Plus, I’ll take Myles Garrett against anyone on the average Bengals offensive line. Time to bark, Cleveland.

NFL Week 8 Teaser of the Week

7 points: Bills -10.5 > -3.5, Titans +1 > Titans +8

If the Bills want to win the Super Bowl, they need to take care of business at home and step on the Packers’ throats. The Packers are in disarray and Aaron Rodgers will be missing his top target, Allen Lazard. No excuse for Buffalo to have a letdown game. In Houston, I had to do a double-take at this line. Even with Ryan Tannehill out, why are the Texans a 1-point favorite against the first-place Titans? Someone explain to me how this makes sense? WHAT DOES VEGAS KNOW?! Don’t be scared, folks. Malik Willis might take this job and not give it up, Yup, I said it. The Titans have won four of the last five against Houston. They’ll make it five out of six.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-7-1

Underdog of the Week: 3-3

Teaser of the Week: 2-4

2022-2023 NBA Season Predictions

Joel Embiid asks for high fives from the crowd.

Tonight marks the start of the 2022-2023 NBA Season. Wait, what? The season always sneaks up on me, but this time, I’m ready for it.

It was a wild offseason full of blockbuster trades (Donovan Mitchell), trade demands (Kevin Durant), and trades that broke our brains (Rudy Gobert).

Has the NBA ever been more talented than it is now? Seriously, there are marquee players on almost every team. But, if you thought tanking was bad in the past, wait until you see what happens this year as teams position themselves for Victor Wembanyama and Scott Henderson.

Shall we make some NBA season predictions?

NBA Key Storylines

Draymond Green vs. The Warriors: The punch heard ’round the world might be a death blow to the Warriors dynasty. Draymond’s punch isn’t something the team will forget in the short term. After the recipient of the punch, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins received contract extensions, Draymond is now the meme of Will Smith in an empty room. I trust Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Steve Kerr to be professional about it, but this situation is something to keep an eye on.

The Circus in Brooklyn: On paper, the Nets could win the NBA Championship. In reality, they have a long way to go. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving wanted out this offseason, and yet both players return to a roster that was swept by the Celtics in the first round. It’s only a matter of when, not if, the team will implode.

No Ime, No Problem?: The Celtics were prime for a return to the NBA Finals until Ime Udoka received a yearlong suspension. Now, I don’t know what to expect out of Boston. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the two staples and the addition of Malcolm Brogan is an upgrade at the point guard position. However, Robert Williams is out until December at the earliest and Al Horford has a lot of miles on his legs. The Cs should figure things out on their way to the playoffs, but I don’t trust them to beat teams like Boston or Philadelphia.

Eastern Conference

  1. Philadelphia 76ers
  2. Milwaukee Bucks
  3. Boston Celtics
  4. Miami Heat
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Brooklyn Nets
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Atlanta Hawks
  9. New York Knicks
  10. Chicago Bulls

Eastern Conference Finals: Bucks over 76ers

You can say this about a lot of teams when it comes to injuries, but if the Bucks had a healthy Khris Middleton, I believe they make the NBA Finals. If the Bucks are healthy this season, they have the pieces to win the Eastern Conference. They return virtually the same roster from a season ago, and they will add Joe Ingles to the rotation once he returns in 2023. I like the Sixers’ additions of P.J. Tucker and De’Anthony Melton to add much-needed toughness to the roster. Embiid will be an MVP favorite, but it will not be enough to catapult the Sixers past the Bucks in the East.

Western Conference

  1. Denver Nuggets
  2. Golden State Warriors
  3. Phoenix Suns
  4. Los Angeles Clippers
  5. Memphis Grizzlies
  6. Dallas Mavericks
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves
  8. Los Angeles Lakers
  9. New Orleans Pelicans
  10. Sacramento Kings

Western Conference Finals: Warriors over Clippers

The Draymond Green saga could be a major thorn in the Warriors’ side as they look to defend their title. There is a possibility that Green gets dealt at the deadline. However, if Green can suck it up and play through the turmoil, the Warriors are in a prime position to repeat. Steph and Klay will steal all the headlines, but another year of Poole and Wiggins will add to the team’s chemistry. If Jonathan Kuminga can take the next step and James Wiseman can take a (literal) step, the Warriors will represent the West in the Finals.

NBA Finals

Bucks over Warriors

Giannis puts on his crown and wins his second ring.

NBA Awards

MVP: Joel Embiid

Rookie of the Year: Keegan Murray

Coach of the Year: Michael Malone

Defensive Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Most Improved Player: Jalen Brunson

Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Poole

Check back next year to see how right (or wrong) my predictions turn out!

Leave your NBA season predictions in the comments or tweet us, @danny_giro.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Oh, Daniel. Daniel Daniel Daniel Daniel, Daniel. What a HORRIBLE Week 5 for yours truly. Zero wins are unacceptable. You’re going to have bad weeks. I get that. However, Week 6 must be a winning week, or I’m going to have to take a long look in the mirror and question everything I know about football. (I will still bet in Week 7 no matter what.) We’re going to FanDuel for the Week 6 lines. Change up the mojo.

*Lines as of 10/15 at 2:00 PM ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 6 Bets of the Week

Seahawks vs. Cardinals Over 50.5

We’re switching things up this week. As much as I want to bet Seattle to not only cover the 2.5 but win outright, I am going with the safer* play. Geno Smith is a new man. Who had the highest passer rating in Week 5? Mr. Geno Smith. Who has Seattle at 7th in points per game (25.4) and eighth in yards per game (368.0)? Mr. Geno Smith. Arizona might have the worst first-quarter offense in the history of football with 0.0 points per game. However, the Cardinals did outgain the Eagles in yards last week, 363 to 357. Even with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, Arizona will find success on the ground as the Seahawks surrender the most rushing yards per game (170.2) and 2nd most points per game (30.8). It should be noted that Rashaad Penny is on IR for Seattle. Don’t let it spook you. I’m expecting a slow start, but an explosive second half full of scoring to hit the over.

*There are no safe bets in gambling.

Chargers -4.5 vs. Broncos

Broncos country, let’s (not) ride! What the hell is going on in Denver? Russell Wilson looks lost at QB. He refuses to run, and when he stays in the pocket, he’s missing too many throws. Plus, Nathaniel Hackett is trying to get fired with some of the decisions he’s made over the past five weeks. Speaking of coaches trying to get fired, Brandon Staley makes one WTF decision every week that makes you want to jump off a roof. Why did he go for it on fourth down from his team’s own 46 with 1:14 left up 2 points? The Chargers were lucky to escape Cleveland with a win. Stop being cute. Punt the ball! Anyway, I trust Justin Herbert a lot more than I do Wilson. After getting their asses kicked by the Jaguars, Herbert and the Chargers offense have accumulated 64 points and 884 yards of total offense over the last two weeks. The Denver offense won’t be able to match that. Take the Chargers.

NFL Week 6 Underdog of the Week

Cowboys +6.5 vs. Eagles

Three weeks ago, I bet the Commanders to cover against the Eagles, which did not happen. Last week, I bet the Eagles to cover -5.5 against the Cardinals, which didn’t happen. Is the third time a charm for betting on an Eagles game? The Eagles are the best team in the NFC right now as they boast the second-ranked offense in terms of yards per game. But this third-ranked Dallas defense can neutralize Hurts. The Eagles should jump out to an early lead, but the Eagles offense stalls in the second half. They average only 5.8 points in the second half (third worst in NFL) as opposed to a league-best 21.2 points in the first half. I’m trusting Coope Rush to get the backdoor cover this weekend.

NFL Week 6 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 7 points, Bucs -10>-3, Rams -10>-3

I’m pretty confident that the Bucs will be able to exploit a Steelers’ secondary that’s missing their three top corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick. However, I’m nervous about the Rams. It’s not an exaggeration to say the Rams have no threats on offense besides Cooper Kupp. As bad as the Panthers have been, all they need to do is triple-team Kupp, and the team will have a shot to keep it close. I believe in the “new coach, new quarterback” narrative to inject some life into the Panthers. PJ Walker is an upgrade over Mayfield, and no Matt Rhule is a win for the Panthers. Walker is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU as an NFL quarterback. Panthers +10 is a great underdog play, but Kupp will make enough plays to cover the 3 points in the tease.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-5-1

Underdog of the Week: 3-2

Teaser of the Week: 2-3

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Trevor Lawrence throwing a pass.

In Week 4, the frisky Lions and Steelers let us down, but the Falcons, Chiefs, and Ravens did their thing to make it a 2-2 week. In Week 5, I’m trusting a cat, a bird, a JV offense, and Captain Kirk.

*Lines as of 10/9 at 12:30 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 5 Bets of the Week

Jaguars -7 vs. Texans

Last week, I loved the Lions, but they let me down. This week, I’m staying in the cat family and backing the Jaguars. I’m not going to overreact to the Jaguars’ offense committing five turnovers last week against the Eagles. It was a monsoon! I’m well aware that the Texans own the Jaguars. (6-2 ATS, 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.) The Jags are 4th in overall DVOA. Plus, Trevor Lawrence continues to improve in every statistical category from a season ago up to this point in the season. Lawrence had 12 passing TDs last season. This year, he has 8. Expect a few more as the Jaguars go on to win by 10.

Eagles -5.5 vs. Cardinals

The Eagles continue to be a thorn in my side. I’ve picked against them multiple times. What does Philly do? They go out and smack their opponents. Jalen Hurts has been a top 3 QB in the NFL through 4 weeks. Hurts, who has 8 total TDs and 2 INTs, is the catalyst of the NFL’s 2nd best offense in terms of yards per game with 435. The Cardinals are a chaotic mess. Arizona is averaging a league-worst 4 (!) points in the first half. Which team scores the most in the first half? The Philadelphia Eagles (23-point average first half), and it ain’t even close. Back the birds.

NFL Week 5 Underdog of the Week

Steelers +13.5 vs. Bills

The Bills are my Super Bowl pick. At times, they have looked like a juggernaut. Conversely, the Steelers have been a JV team on offense. Kenny Pickett should spark some life into the offense that is averaging a mediocre 18.5 points per game. So why am I backing the Steelers? Two words: Mike Tomlin. Coach T is 7-1 ATS as a 6-point underdog without Ben Roethlisberger as his QB. Let’s not forget that the Steelers went into Buffalo last year and upset the Bills. The Steelers will not win today’s game, but they will keep it close enough to cover.

NFL Week 5 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 7 points, Jaguars -7>PK, Vikings -8.5>-1.5

Read above for my Jaguars’ rationale. The Vikings play the Bears, and I believe the Bears are the worst team in the NFL. If the Steelers run a JV offense, the Bears’ offense belongs in Pop Warner. The Bears are last in the NFL in passing yards per game with 97 (!!!!!!), second-to-last in yards per game at 274, and third-to-last in points per game with 16. If the Vikings’ defense puts 11 players on the field, they have a good chance at stopping the Bears. Trust Captain Kirk at 1 PM. He’ll deliver, and so will the Vikings.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-3-1

Underdog of the Week: 3-1

Teaser of the Week: 2-2

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

My name is Dan Girolamo, and I will not trust Carson Wentz for the rest of the NFL season. I am a fool! They said the Eagles were 1-5 ATS in their last six division games. They said the line jumped three points to 6.5 after the Eagles trounced the Vikings. However, none of it mattered as Wentz stunk up the joint 24-8 loss. After a 1-3 record, let’s get back on track in Week 4.

*Lines as of 9/30 at 11:30 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 4 Bets of the Week

Lions -4 vs. Seahawks

The frisky Lions continue to impress me. They’ve been in every game this year. Detroit was up 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter a week ago against the Viking before blowing it at the end to lose 28-24. Did you know that the Lions are 3-0 ATS in 2022? Now, they return home to pay the inferior Seahawks. Jared Goff with time is a good quarterback. With 7 TDs and 2 INTs, Goff leads a Lions offense that’s third in the NFL in yards per game at 409. Even though the Lions are the fifth-worst in total defense, Seattle’s offense is fifth-worst in yards per game at 296.3. I expect a close game at halftime, but expect Goff and the Lions to win by a touchdown once the Seahwawks’ offense disappears in the second half.

Update: I wrote this the morning of 9/30 before the Lions said they would be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Losing St. Brown is a devastating blow to this offense as Goff’s favorite target leads the team with 253 receiving yards and 3 TDs. However, no Swift means the Lions can turn Jamaal Williams into a bell-cow running back. Williams is third in the NFL in red zone opportunities so expect that number to increase on Sunday. I still love the Lions, and you should, too. Thank you to my good pal, and gambling savant, Bus, who reminded me to update this post.

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

Steelers -3 vs. Jets

If you want to see a Big 10 football game in the NFL, then tune into Steelers-Jets on Sunday. Boy, will this game be ugly. The big news comes from New York as Zach Wilson will suit up for the first time this season. He inherits a Jets offense that’s averaged 370 yards per game (ninth in the NFL). On the flip side, Mitchell Trubisky runs a lifeless Steelers offense that’s bottom five in both yards per game and passing yards per game. However, this is more about Wilson playing his first game of the season against a Steelers defense that will pin their ears back and make Wilson’s life a living hell. The Steelers’ turnover differential is +3 while the Jets sit at -4. Winning the turnover battle matters, and the Steelers will force them on their way to a 6-point victory.

NFL Week 4 Underdog of the Week

Falcons +1 vs. Browns

Just like the Lions, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS in 2022. Although the offensive numbers are middle of the pack, the Falcons are top 10 in scoring offense, and all three games have hit the over. Am I afraid that the NFL’s top rusher in terms of yards, Nick Chubb, and the top rushing offense in the NFL get to face the 22nd-ranked Falcons defense? I’m not afraid, but I am concerned. This basically comes down to Jacoby Brissett vs. the Falcons. I still don’t trust Brissett, and he’s facing an Atlanta defense that’s seventh in forcing turnovers. It’s a coin flip so I’ll take the home dogs.

NFL Week 4 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 6 points, Chiefs +1>+7 / Ravens +3>+9

Last week, my teaser consisted of a good team (Bucs) and a bad team (Commanders). Why did I torture myself? How about I put two good teams in the teaser of the week? Both the Chiefs and the Ravens are two Super Bowl caliber teams who find themselves as underdogs. When will that happen again? The Chiefs special teams were atrocious a week ago in the loss to the Colts. The lack of a deep threat concerns me for the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS as a road underdog and 10-3 SU following a loss. Plus, Brady is still trying to figure out the receiving situation so give me the Chiefs at +7 to cover. In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite as of today. Jackson’s 10 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs anchor the highest-scoring offense in the NFL through three games. The Bills are good, but they won’t blow out the Ravens in Baltimore.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Underdog of the Week: 2-1

Teaser of the Week: 1-2

NFL Week 3 Best Bets

Carson Wentz fist pumping for the Commanders.

After a mediocre first week, my NFL bets kicked ass in Week 2 as they went a perfect 4-0. Now, I wish I only bet 4 games and those 4 games only. But hey, I needed some action elsewhere, and I lost those bets. It happens. Regardless, the ones I wrote about all won so I hope you took advantage of the opportunity. Looking at the Week 3 slate, I spy with my little eye, a pack of barking dogs. Vegas is begging you to take the home underdogs in Indy, Miami, New England, DC, and NY so they can clean up when the favorites win.

What will I do? Let’s talk it out.

*Lines as of 9/23 at 3:00 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 3 Bets of the Week

Raiders -2 vs. Titans

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the kitchen sink game. With the Raiders and Titans at 0-2, both teams will do everything in their power to win this game. Fake punts, flea flickers, and reverses will be on the table. At the very least, the Raiders should be 1-1. Blowing a 20-point lead to a lifeless Cardinals team is inexcusable. On the flip side, the Titans gift-wrapped the Giants a Week 1 victory before being trounced by the Bills. Something has to give for one of these teams. The Raiders offense has been mediocre with an average of 322 yards per game. But it’s not as bad as the 273 yards per game from the Titans offense. Plus, the Titans will be missing one of their best pass blockers and pass rushers. Don’t let us down, Carr. This is your game to win.

Bengals -6 vs. Jets

What happened to the Bengals? Truth be told, the Bengals aren’t as big of a mess as the media says. If Evan McPherson makes a field goal in Week 1 and the defense makes a 4th quarter stop in Week 2, Cincy could be 2-0. But, they’re winless and must face a Jets teams with a ton of confidence after pulling a rabbit out of a hat in their win vs. the Browns. Burrow can’t get sacked 13 times in two games, but the offensive line isn’t that bad. They just need to put some points on the board. As long as Burrow doesn’t throw Sauce Gardner’s way, they should be able to attack the Jets in the middle of the field and win by 7.

NFL Week 3 Underdog of the Week

Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles

Carson Wentz fist pumping for the Commanders.

Before I hit you with a “but,” I will say that Jalen Hurts is off to a fantastic start this NFL season. I have my doubts about him as a pocket passer, but if he’s accumulating over 700 total yards in 2 games while sitting in the Top 10 for QBR, who the hell cares about the pocket? The Eagles look like the clear NFC East champions through two weeks. BUT, this line is an overreaction to the beatdown that took place against the Vikings. Say what you want about the Commies, they’re a division rival at home, and Philly is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against division opponents. If Carson Wentz takes care of the football (huge “if”) better than Kirk Cousins, then the Commies should be able to exploit an Eagles defense that surrendered 35 points to the Lions in Week 1. Philly may win, but the Commanders get the cover.

NFL Week 3 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 7 points, Commanders +6.5>+13.5 / Bucs -1 > +6

I don’t have the balls to tease the Colts even though I want to do just that. Instead, I’ll tease the Bucs at home vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bucs have arguably the best defense in the NFL right now, surrendering an impressive 6.5 points per game. For the Packers, Rodgers’s healthy receiver right now is rookie Romeo Doubs. The under is the better play in this game, but for teasing purposes, let’s give Brady the 6 points at home.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 3-1

Underdog of the Week: 2-0

Teaser of the Week: 1-1

2022 NFL Season Predictions And Week 1 Bets

Matthew Stafford pointing in a Rams game.

We did it, everyone! After an excruciating offseason full of contract disputes, suspension predictions, and hand size measurements, the NFL finally returns tonight with a top-notch game, Bills vs. Rams. This also marks my return to Unafraid Show after a short hiatus. Sometimes, you need to recharge the batteries, and that’s exactly what I did. But I’m ready to go, so buckle up and enjoy my NFL season predictions and bets for Week 1.

2022 NFL Season Thoughts

The Bills Are Awesome, But Everyone Likes Them

I’ve known my Super Bowl pick since March. The Bills are going to win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen knows he must do two things: choose heads and secure home-field advantage. Adding Von Miller will help bolster a unit that finished 11th in sacks last season. Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie are prime candidates for breakout seasons. The only thing that scares me is the media’s infatuation with the Bills. Everyone likes the Bills, you say? What could go wrong?

The AFC West Conundrum

On paper, the AFC West is the strongest division in the NFL. There’s a world where all four teams make the playoffs. There’s also a world where one team makes the playoffs. It’s unlikely the latter scenario happens, but it’s possible if all four teams beat up each other throughout the season. The Chiefs and Chargers are the standout teams behind MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. The Raiders brought in Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams while the Broncos opted for Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson. However, the player that will decide which of these two teams will make the playoffs is Derek Carr. If Carr clicks with McDaniels and Adams, the Raiders will return to the postseason. If they struggle, Mr. Unlimited will ride Denver to the postseason.

New Teams To Make The Playoffs

By now, you’ve seen the stat where four to six teams new teams will make the playoffs. As easy as it would be to include all the team’s from the 2022 postseason and slot them in the 2023 postseason, that wouldn’t be smart. A team will likely go from worst to first* and vice versa. The tough part is deciding who’s in and who’s out.

* It’s an expression. It might not be “worst to first,” but it will be “worst to the playoffs.” I excluded that phrasing because it doesn’t roll off the tongue.

Who’s In: Vikings, Colts, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos

Who’s Out: Steelers, Cowboys, Titans, Patriots, Raiders

2022 NFL Season Predictions

AFC

  1. Bills
  2. Chiefs
  3. Ravens
  4. Colts
  5. Chargers
  6. Bengals
  7. Broncos

AFC Championship: Bills over Chiefs

NFC

  1. Packers
  2. Bucs
  3. 49ers
  4. Eagles
  5. Vikings
  6. Rams
  7. Cardinals

NFC Championship: 49ers over Packers

Super Bowl: Bills over 49ers

2022 NFL Awards

  • MVP – Justin Herbert
  • Offensive Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey
  • Defensive Player of the Year – Nick Bosa
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year – Dameon Pierce
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner
  • Comeback Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey
  • Coach of the Year – Sean McDermott

Week 1 Bets

I figured I would take this time to sprinkle in some of my favorite bets for Week 1. Unfortunately, I’m addicted to teasers, which is not the right path to pursue, but it makes me happy, so who cares. I’m not sponsored by a sportsbook so I’ll shop around for the best lines. I’ll be using FanDuel for this article, but I’m not afraid to mix it up with DraftKings. My DMs are open if any sportsbook would like to sponsor me.

*Lines from FanDuel as of 9/8

Ravens -6.5 vs. Jets

  • The Ravens had the worst injury luck imaginable a season ago. Lamar Jackson may not be playing under a new contract (please hire an agent), but when he’s healthy, Jackson is one of the league’s best weapons. The Jets will be missing Zach Wilson. That’s not saying much, but “Cool” Joe Flacco is a downgrade from Wilson. Last season, the Jets defense allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game with 138, and the Ravens rushed for the third most yards per game with 145. Don’t overthink this. Bet the Ravens.

49ers -6.5 vs. Bears

  • Name one receiver on the Bears offense outside Darnell Mooney. Also, the Bears have the worst-ranked offensive line heading into 2022 according to Sharp Football Analysis. Justin Fields will be running for his life on Sunday with no lifeline in sight. The 49ers offense will experience growing pains under Trey Lance, but they should win by at least two touchdowns.

Underdog of the Week: Vikings +1.5 vs. Packers

  • Skol! I’m a Kirk Cousins defender. Over the last two seasons, Captain Kirk has thrown for over 8000 yards and 65 TDs. Now with Mike Zimmer out, the Vikings will throw even more. The Packers will probably win 13 games again, but Rodgers still needs time to figure out who to trust at WR. I’m not expecting another 38-3 Week 1 loss, but the Packers will be rusty on offense, and the Vikings will light up the scoreboard.

Teaser of the Week: 6 points – Ravens -.5, 49ers -.5

  • For the reasons outlined above.

Here’s to a great year of losing money and yelling at your TV!

What are your NFL predictions? Leave them in the comments below or tweet at @danny_giro.