The best football weekend of the year is upon us as the NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday night. It was a winning Wild Card Weekend for me, so let’s keep the train rolling.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Chiefs -8.5 vs. Jaguars
Everyone and their mother will be throwing the Chiefs in a teaser this weekend. Why? For starters, Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round (4-0). In Mahomes’s four Divisional games, the Chiefs have scored 36.5 points per game with an average margin of victory of 12.25 points. Not too shabby! Andy Reid is also dominant off a bye week as his teams are 27-4 (including the regular season). I love where the Jaguars are heading. Last week’s comeback victory over the Chargers set this franchise in the right direction. The Jags are on a six-game winning streak with a 5-1 ATS record in that timeframe. Jacksonville needs to get off to a fast start for them to have any chance at winning. However, #15 in red loves fast starts as the catalyst to the third-highest scoring first-half offense in the league on a per-game average (15.6). It’s a close game at the half, but the Chiefs pull away to cover.
Giants vs. Eagles over 48.5
As I mentioned last week, I am a diehard Giants fan, so I’m rooting for the Giants. I also don’t put any money down on the Giants because of my poor record betting on the teams I love. If I were to bet on this game, the over is the play. The Eagles are the highest-scoring first half team in the league (17.4 points). During the season, the over was 10-7 in Eagles games. Do you know which team has been one of the hottest over teams in the second half? The New York Football Giants, with the over hitting in seven of their last nine games. Go Giants, but the safer play is to root for points.
Bengals +5.5 vs Bills
The hardest game to handicap is the contest between the Bengals and the Bills. It’s an overused phrase, but I truly believe whoever has the ball last will win the game. Both teams were not particularly impressive in their wins during Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals needed a miraculous defensive touchdown to beat Tyler Huntley, and the Bills needed to come from behind to defeat third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Bengals missing three starting offensive linemen shouldn’t be swept to the side. Josh Allen committing the most turnover at the QB position is something that also shouldn’t be taken lightly. Both teams should be able to score, so the over is a solid play. Because I think this will be a close game, the Bills will win by a field goal so take the Bengals and the points.
49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys
The two most impressive teams in the Wild Card Round will now face off in the last game of Divisional Weekend. You know where I stand on the Niners. If I wasn’t a Giants fan, I would be a Niners fan. This roster is stacked beyond belief. During this 11-game winning streak, the Niners offense is second in EPA per play. As long as Brock Purdy doesn’t turn the ball over, the Niners can win the Super Bowl. However, the Cowboys are pretty damn good as well. Dak Prescott played the game of his life against Tampa, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. The Niners offense will also play the best defense they’ve seen in months, but that works both ways as the Niners are the best defense in football, surrounding the fewest yards per game (300.6). I liked the Niners to win the game before they knew their opponent. After seeing Brett Maher miss four extra points, I feel better that the Niners will cover the three and change.
NFL Divisional Round Teaser
6 POINTS: Chiefs -8.5>-2.5, Bengals/Bills Over 49.5>Over 43.5
As I stated at the beginning of the article, the entire world will tease the Chiefs to under three points. The question lies with who (or what) to tease them with. Honestly, it’s not a week for teasers. However, getting the total to 43.5 in the Bengals-Bills seems to be the best option. The Bengals haven’t scored under 20 points since October 9, and the Bills haven’t scored under 20 points since November 6. Both teams average over 25 points per game. That’s good enough for the over.
Bets of the Week: 17-14-1
Underdog of the Week: 8-8
Teaser of the Week: 9-7
Bets of the Week: 4-2
Teaser of the Week: 0-1