NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

My name is Dan Girolamo, and I will not trust Carson Wentz for the rest of the NFL season. I am a fool! They said the Eagles were 1-5 ATS in their last six division games. They said the line jumped three points to 6.5 after the Eagles trounced the Vikings. However, none of it mattered as Wentz stunk up the joint 24-8 loss. After a 1-3 record, let’s get back on track in Week 4.

*Lines as of 9/30 at 11:30 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 4 Bets of the Week

Lions -4 vs. Seahawks

The frisky Lions continue to impress me. They’ve been in every game this year. Detroit was up 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter a week ago against the Viking before blowing it at the end to lose 28-24. Did you know that the Lions are 3-0 ATS in 2022? Now, they return home to pay the inferior Seahawks. Jared Goff with time is a good quarterback. With 7 TDs and 2 INTs, Goff leads a Lions offense that’s third in the NFL in yards per game at 409. Even though the Lions are the fifth-worst in total defense, Seattle’s offense is fifth-worst in yards per game at 296.3. I expect a close game at halftime, but expect Goff and the Lions to win by a touchdown once the Seahwawks’ offense disappears in the second half.

Update: I wrote this the morning of 9/30 before the Lions said they would be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Losing St. Brown is a devastating blow to this offense as Goff’s favorite target leads the team with 253 receiving yards and 3 TDs. However, no Swift means the Lions can turn Jamaal Williams into a bell-cow running back. Williams is third in the NFL in red zone opportunities so expect that number to increase on Sunday. I still love the Lions, and you should, too. Thank you to my good pal, and gambling savant, Bus, who reminded me to update this post.

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

Steelers -3 vs. Jets

If you want to see a Big 10 football game in the NFL, then tune into Steelers-Jets on Sunday. Boy, will this game be ugly. The big news comes from New York as Zach Wilson will suit up for the first time this season. He inherits a Jets offense that’s averaged 370 yards per game (ninth in the NFL). On the flip side, Mitchell Trubisky runs a lifeless Steelers offense that’s bottom five in both yards per game and passing yards per game. However, this is more about Wilson playing his first game of the season against a Steelers defense that will pin their ears back and make Wilson’s life a living hell. The Steelers’ turnover differential is +3 while the Jets sit at -4. Winning the turnover battle matters, and the Steelers will force them on their way to a 6-point victory.

NFL Week 4 Underdog of the Week

Falcons +1 vs. Browns

Just like the Lions, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS in 2022. Although the offensive numbers are middle of the pack, the Falcons are top 10 in scoring offense, and all three games have hit the over. Am I afraid that the NFL’s top rusher in terms of yards, Nick Chubb, and the top rushing offense in the NFL get to face the 22nd-ranked Falcons defense? I’m not afraid, but I am concerned. This basically comes down to Jacoby Brissett vs. the Falcons. I still don’t trust Brissett, and he’s facing an Atlanta defense that’s seventh in forcing turnovers. It’s a coin flip so I’ll take the home dogs.

NFL Week 4 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 6 points, Chiefs +1>+7 / Ravens +3>+9

Last week, my teaser consisted of a good team (Bucs) and a bad team (Commanders). Why did I torture myself? How about I put two good teams in the teaser of the week? Both the Chiefs and the Ravens are two Super Bowl caliber teams who find themselves as underdogs. When will that happen again? The Chiefs special teams were atrocious a week ago in the loss to the Colts. The lack of a deep threat concerns me for the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS as a road underdog and 10-3 SU following a loss. Plus, Brady is still trying to figure out the receiving situation so give me the Chiefs at +7 to cover. In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite as of today. Jackson’s 10 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs anchor the highest-scoring offense in the NFL through three games. The Bills are good, but they won’t blow out the Ravens in Baltimore.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Underdog of the Week: 2-1

Teaser of the Week: 1-2

NFL Week 3 Best Bets

Carson Wentz fist pumping for the Commanders.

After a mediocre first week, my NFL bets kicked ass in Week 2 as they went a perfect 4-0. Now, I wish I only bet 4 games and those 4 games only. But hey, I needed some action elsewhere, and I lost those bets. It happens. Regardless, the ones I wrote about all won so I hope you took advantage of the opportunity. Looking at the Week 3 slate, I spy with my little eye, a pack of barking dogs. Vegas is begging you to take the home underdogs in Indy, Miami, New England, DC, and NY so they can clean up when the favorites win.

What will I do? Let’s talk it out.

*Lines as of 9/23 at 3:00 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 3 Bets of the Week

Raiders -2 vs. Titans

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the kitchen sink game. With the Raiders and Titans at 0-2, both teams will do everything in their power to win this game. Fake punts, flea flickers, and reverses will be on the table. At the very least, the Raiders should be 1-1. Blowing a 20-point lead to a lifeless Cardinals team is inexcusable. On the flip side, the Titans gift-wrapped the Giants a Week 1 victory before being trounced by the Bills. Something has to give for one of these teams. The Raiders offense has been mediocre with an average of 322 yards per game. But it’s not as bad as the 273 yards per game from the Titans offense. Plus, the Titans will be missing one of their best pass blockers and pass rushers. Don’t let us down, Carr. This is your game to win.

Bengals -6 vs. Jets

What happened to the Bengals? Truth be told, the Bengals aren’t as big of a mess as the media says. If Evan McPherson makes a field goal in Week 1 and the defense makes a 4th quarter stop in Week 2, Cincy could be 2-0. But, they’re winless and must face a Jets teams with a ton of confidence after pulling a rabbit out of a hat in their win vs. the Browns. Burrow can’t get sacked 13 times in two games, but the offensive line isn’t that bad. They just need to put some points on the board. As long as Burrow doesn’t throw Sauce Gardner’s way, they should be able to attack the Jets in the middle of the field and win by 7.

NFL Week 3 Underdog of the Week

Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles

Carson Wentz fist pumping for the Commanders.

Before I hit you with a “but,” I will say that Jalen Hurts is off to a fantastic start this NFL season. I have my doubts about him as a pocket passer, but if he’s accumulating over 700 total yards in 2 games while sitting in the Top 10 for QBR, who the hell cares about the pocket? The Eagles look like the clear NFC East champions through two weeks. BUT, this line is an overreaction to the beatdown that took place against the Vikings. Say what you want about the Commies, they’re a division rival at home, and Philly is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against division opponents. If Carson Wentz takes care of the football (huge “if”) better than Kirk Cousins, then the Commies should be able to exploit an Eagles defense that surrendered 35 points to the Lions in Week 1. Philly may win, but the Commanders get the cover.

NFL Week 3 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 7 points, Commanders +6.5>+13.5 / Bucs -1 > +6

I don’t have the balls to tease the Colts even though I want to do just that. Instead, I’ll tease the Bucs at home vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bucs have arguably the best defense in the NFL right now, surrendering an impressive 6.5 points per game. For the Packers, Rodgers’s healthy receiver right now is rookie Romeo Doubs. The under is the better play in this game, but for teasing purposes, let’s give Brady the 6 points at home.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 3-1

Underdog of the Week: 2-0

Teaser of the Week: 1-1

NFL Week 2 Best Bets

Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers

Last week, we opened up the NFL season with a 2-2 split. Lamar Jackson and Justin Jefferson did their thing, but Trey Lance and the 49ers forgot to hold up their end of the bargain. Have no fear, we’re at it again in Week 2.

Despite a decent week, we’re switching up the book for Week 2 as these lines come from Draftkings. Switching up the juju will ensure us a winning week.

Packers -10 vs. Bears

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got their asses kicked by the Vikings in Week 1. From dropped passes to blown coverages, it was a rough day at the office for a team expected to challenge for the one seed. Remember last season when the Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints? In Week 2, they went to Lambeau and righted the ship on their way to a 35-17 victory over the Lions.

I’m expecting history to repeat itself. Rodgers owns a 22-5 record against the Bears with an impressive 61 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I still believe the Bears are one of the three worst teams in the league. Besides the toughness of Justin Fields, I learned nothing about the Bears in a torrential downpour victory against the 49ers. The Bears haven’t won in Green Bay since 2015. They’ll have to try again next year because it ain’t happening on Sunday night.

Lions +1 vs. Commanders

I don’t like the Lions. I love the Lions. Detroit is a frisky bunch that usually finds a way to cover. They were 10-7 ATS in 2021. Carson Wentz threw for 313 yards, 4 (!!!) TDs, and 2 INTs a week ago against the Jaguars. Do you think that will happen again? Honestly, no! Dan Campbell gets to celebrate with a nice bite out of a kneecap.

Underdog of the Week: Steelers +3 vs. Patriots

The Patriots are favored only because of this phrase: “Bill Belichick won’t start 0-2.” Belichick owns Tomlin, having won 6 of the last 7 matchups. However, Tom Brady no longer plays QB for the Pats. Why would anyone trust the Patriots offense after putting up 291 yards and 7 points a week ago? I understand Najee Harris (health) and Mitch Trubisky (skills) are limited, and T.J. Watt is out. But, I like the Steelers defense to make life a living hell for Mac Jones as Pittsburgh goes on to win by a field goal.

Teaser: 7 points, Packers -10>-3, Bills -10>-3

Unlike the Packers who are in a bounce back mode, the Bills are looking to keep their foot on the throttle after the Week 1 blowout victory against the Rams. The Titans beat the Bills last year by a field goal, but after their performance against the Giants in Week 1, why would anyone trust this offense? Volume king Derrick Henry had 20 carries for 82 yards against the Giants. The Bills will stack the box and make Ryan Tannehill beat them. Good luck, Tanny, because you won’t outduel Josh Allen.

Good luck.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Regular Bets: 1-1

Underdog of the Week: 1-0

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

2022 NFL Season Predictions And Week 1 Bets

Matthew Stafford pointing in a Rams game.

We did it, everyone! After an excruciating offseason full of contract disputes, suspension predictions, and hand size measurements, the NFL finally returns tonight with a top-notch game, Bills vs. Rams. This also marks my return to Unafraid Show after a short hiatus. Sometimes, you need to recharge the batteries, and that’s exactly what I did. But I’m ready to go, so buckle up and enjoy my NFL season predictions and bets for Week 1.

2022 NFL Season Thoughts

The Bills Are Awesome, But Everyone Likes Them

I’ve known my Super Bowl pick since March. The Bills are going to win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen knows he must do two things: choose heads and secure home-field advantage. Adding Von Miller will help bolster a unit that finished 11th in sacks last season. Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie are prime candidates for breakout seasons. The only thing that scares me is the media’s infatuation with the Bills. Everyone likes the Bills, you say? What could go wrong?

The AFC West Conundrum

On paper, the AFC West is the strongest division in the NFL. There’s a world where all four teams make the playoffs. There’s also a world where one team makes the playoffs. It’s unlikely the latter scenario happens, but it’s possible if all four teams beat up each other throughout the season. The Chiefs and Chargers are the standout teams behind MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. The Raiders brought in Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams while the Broncos opted for Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson. However, the player that will decide which of these two teams will make the playoffs is Derek Carr. If Carr clicks with McDaniels and Adams, the Raiders will return to the postseason. If they struggle, Mr. Unlimited will ride Denver to the postseason.

New Teams To Make The Playoffs

By now, you’ve seen the stat where four to six teams new teams will make the playoffs. As easy as it would be to include all the team’s from the 2022 postseason and slot them in the 2023 postseason, that wouldn’t be smart. A team will likely go from worst to first* and vice versa. The tough part is deciding who’s in and who’s out.

* It’s an expression. It might not be “worst to first,” but it will be “worst to the playoffs.” I excluded that phrasing because it doesn’t roll off the tongue.

Who’s In: Vikings, Colts, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos

Who’s Out: Steelers, Cowboys, Titans, Patriots, Raiders

2022 NFL Season Predictions

AFC

  1. Bills
  2. Chiefs
  3. Ravens
  4. Colts
  5. Chargers
  6. Bengals
  7. Broncos

AFC Championship: Bills over Chiefs

NFC

  1. Packers
  2. Bucs
  3. 49ers
  4. Eagles
  5. Vikings
  6. Rams
  7. Cardinals

NFC Championship: 49ers over Packers

Super Bowl: Bills over 49ers

2022 NFL Awards

  • MVP – Justin Herbert
  • Offensive Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey
  • Defensive Player of the Year – Nick Bosa
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year – Dameon Pierce
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner
  • Comeback Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey
  • Coach of the Year – Sean McDermott

Week 1 Bets

I figured I would take this time to sprinkle in some of my favorite bets for Week 1. Unfortunately, I’m addicted to teasers, which is not the right path to pursue, but it makes me happy, so who cares. I’m not sponsored by a sportsbook so I’ll shop around for the best lines. I’ll be using FanDuel for this article, but I’m not afraid to mix it up with DraftKings. My DMs are open if any sportsbook would like to sponsor me.

*Lines from FanDuel as of 9/8

Ravens -6.5 vs. Jets

  • The Ravens had the worst injury luck imaginable a season ago. Lamar Jackson may not be playing under a new contract (please hire an agent), but when he’s healthy, Jackson is one of the league’s best weapons. The Jets will be missing Zach Wilson. That’s not saying much, but “Cool” Joe Flacco is a downgrade from Wilson. Last season, the Jets defense allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game with 138, and the Ravens rushed for the third most yards per game with 145. Don’t overthink this. Bet the Ravens.

49ers -6.5 vs. Bears

  • Name one receiver on the Bears offense outside Darnell Mooney. Also, the Bears have the worst-ranked offensive line heading into 2022 according to Sharp Football Analysis. Justin Fields will be running for his life on Sunday with no lifeline in sight. The 49ers offense will experience growing pains under Trey Lance, but they should win by at least two touchdowns.

Underdog of the Week: Vikings +1.5 vs. Packers

  • Skol! I’m a Kirk Cousins defender. Over the last two seasons, Captain Kirk has thrown for over 8000 yards and 65 TDs. Now with Mike Zimmer out, the Vikings will throw even more. The Packers will probably win 13 games again, but Rodgers still needs time to figure out who to trust at WR. I’m not expecting another 38-3 Week 1 loss, but the Packers will be rusty on offense, and the Vikings will light up the scoreboard.

Teaser of the Week: 6 points – Ravens -.5, 49ers -.5

  • For the reasons outlined above.

Here’s to a great year of losing money and yelling at your TV!

What are your NFL predictions? Leave them in the comments below or tweet at @danny_giro.