Five NFL Players That Might Be Household Names By The End Of 2023

Let’s talk about five players that might be household names by the end of the 2023 season

Sam Howell

The Washington Commanders are coming into 2023 with more hope for the future that they’ve had in two decades thanks to a change in ownership, but let’s focus on what they’re putting on the field.

From 2019 to 2022, Washington has started ten different quarterbacks, and has had a different player lead them in pass attempts for four consecutive seasons. They haven’t had a quarterback start and finish the season since Kirk Cousins in 2017.

Sam Howell might be ready to break that streak. 

I’ve heard people call Sam Howell a great value Baker Mayfield. I’ve heard people say that even though he threw for 10,000 yards in the ACC, he fell off in his junior year. 

What people don’t point out is that his offensive line didn’t hold up as a junior, and he so he took it upon himself to go from a pure pocket passer with 181 rushing yards in 25 combined games as a freshman and sophomore, to rushing for almost 850 yards and 11 touchdowns as a junior. And he STILL threw for over 3,000 yards. This man is what uncreative sports analysts might call a “sneaky” athlete.

Sneaky means white.

Howell has an extremely solid young group of receivers led by Terry McLaurin, who has three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, and if Jahan Dotson progresses, you better watch out. 

With the NFC East up for grabs, you might be hearing Sam Howell’s name quite a bit come December.

Desmond Ridder

Has there ever been a young QB more set up for success than Desmond Ridder is in Atlanta? 

Three former first round picks on the offensive line, including Jake Matthews. Kyle Pitts, the #4 overall pick in 2021 at TE. Drake London, the #8 overall pick at WR. A returning 1,000 yard rusher in Tyson Allgeier. One of the best college running backs we’ve ever seen in Bijan Robinson. And they STILL have Cordarrelle Patterson.

For anyone saying that I’m overhyping a 24-year-old quarterback with only four career starts, you have to remember that Ridder started 50 games in college, and took Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff. 

Atlanta has as much of an opportunity to win the NFC South as New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay- and if they pull that off, this young roster in the playoffs is going to energize the Falcons fanbase for years to come. 

Brian Burns

Do you know the name Brian Burns? If not, you’re about to. 

The Carolina Panthers defensive end and former 16th overall pick out of Florida State seems to have just ended his brief holdout, and is about to become one of the highest paid defensive ends in NFL history.

Why? Well, he has 38 sacks in four seasons, has improved every single year, is coming off back-to-back Pro Bowls, and has only missed two games over that span. Only three players over the last three seasons have more total QB pressures than Burns.

Burns isn’t the best at getting off blocks, and he’s also not considered a top tier edge rusher against the run, but if he improves in either of those areas this season, we’re no longer talking about a top-10 pass rusher. We’re talking about a top-10 defensive player, regardless of position.

And if you’re getting Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby money, you deserve Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby’s name recognition. 

Jahmyr Gibbs

The Detroit Lions have had three 1,000 yard rushers in the last 20 seasons. They haven’t had an 1,100 yard rusher in 18 years.

That streak might end. 

Jahmyr Gibbs started his college career at Georgia Tech, and finished at Alabama, and despite splitting reps in a crowded backfield, Gibbs displayed a skillset that might be the closest thing we have to Christian McCaffrey. 

He’s an elite runner, and an elite receiver. There’s never a reason to take this man off the field. 

Anyone in a points-per-reception fantasy football league probably already has a Jahmyr Gibbs jersey, but the casual NFL fan might be learning this young man’s name for giving Detroit a backfield threat they’ve been missing since the 1990’s.

Travis Etienne

I get that it’s a QB league. I get that Trevor Lawrence deserves all the hype he’s getting heading into the 2023 season. I get that the return of Calvin Ridley is a big storyline as well. 

But the man y’all need to be talking about is Travis Etienne. 

The one place Etienne needs to improve, and it has to be a team effort, is against the NFL’s best run defense- the Tennessee Titans. Etienne’s awesome 2022 campaign included two absolute stinker games against their division foe, where he had 24 carries for 49 yards.

Without those games, his per carry average goes from 5.1 to 5.5.

5+ yards a carry over a full season is insane. Fred Taylor did it in his final two seasons, but there was a 14-year gap before Etienne pulled it off last year. And he duplicated that effort in the playoffs as well.

The only reason Etienne isn’t getting more hype is that he wasn’t their primary short yardage option in the red zone.

Carson Palmer is Wrong About Joe Burrow Being Better than Patrick Mahomes, But the Argument is Good for Football

We need to talk about Carson Palmer putting Joe Burrow above Patrick Mahomes.

Look, this is what happens. There’s room at the top of the mountain for one player. Anyone that wants to be at the top of the mountain is going to have to challenge that player. Anyone that wants someone else to be at the top of the mountain is going to have to challenge that player. 

Sometimes that challenge is a grift. Sometimes it’s genuine. 

I’m going to give the usually quiet Carson Palmer and his $172 million in career earnings the benefit of the doubt that he has no reason to start grifting.

I mean, he was on his brother Jordan’s podcast, and Jordan has trained Joe Burrow in the past, but we’ll let that slide.

So assuming Carson Palmer earnestly challenged the legitimacy of Patrick Mahomes as the NFL’s top dog, let’s address what he said on its merits. 

This is Carson Palmer talking about Joe Burrow:

“I think Joe is the best quarterback in the league. I know Patrick [Mahomes] is phenomenal, but I just think Joe’s more consistent. He’s more consistent. He’s more accountable to run the system and the play that’s called and not feel like, “Well, he didn’t win last time and get open for me, so I’m gonna do it with my feet,” and then before you know it, you’re sacked for a four-yard loss because you tried to make two or three guys miss. Joe is just… talk about not having a weakness. Mentally strong, physically tough, accurate, can throw it far enough, fast enough, gets the ball out quick, and then he can actually do a lot with his legs.“

So Carson Palmer’s point is that Joe Burrow doesn’t do what Patrick Mahomes does because Cincinnati’s system doesn’t call for it? What, Patrick Mahomes just stumbled his way to being the only QB in NFL history to average over 300 yards passing per game, and the only QB to ever average over 8 yards per Adjusted Net Completion because of a lack of accountability to the offense?

Are we saying that Patrick Mahomes’ weakness is that he’s a better freelancer than all-time great football mind Andy Reid is as a playcaller?

And what are we talking about as far as consistency? Or taking off running too much? Patrick Mahomes has averaged about one rush for every ten dropbacks for the entirety of his career. The only difference between last year, and his first full year as a starter is that he’s much better picking up yardage when he does decide to pull it and run. 

If Patrick Mahomes was a liability in the pocket how is it that he’s 6th all-time in sack percentage? 120 spots ahead of Joe Burrow. 

Joe Burrow literally led the NFL in sacks taken in 2021. He “improved” to sixth most this year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even in the top 20.

Look, I don’t want to disparage Joe Burrow at all. He’s everything Carson Palmer said he was, outside of one thing- better than Mahomes. But these are the type of battle scars you accrue when someone holds you up as the best and there just aren’t any metrics out there that agree.

At the same time, I love this. It was great for football when Peyton Manning was Tom Brady’s perpetual challenger for QB supremacy, but at least in that case there were a dozen metrics you could have made that case upon. 

I hope this is an argument we get to have for the next decade- but the next time we have it, there better be some merit to it. 

Let that sink in.

The Panthers’ Choice at #1 is Clear- Bryce Young No Matter What.

bryce young

We need to talk about what the Carolina Panthers should do with the #1 pick.

Last week the Carolina Panthers made sure that absolutely zero fans of their team own a current player’s jersey by sending wide receiver DJ Moore and several draft picks to Chicago for the #1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

The Panthers need help. Owner David Tepper pulled the plug on Head Coach Matt Rhule last year just 38 games into a seven year contract. They traded Christian McCaffrey last year. They gave up on trying to make both Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield their quarterback of the future. 

Things are so bad for the Panthers that they even bailed out of plans to build an $800 million practice facility in nearby Rock Hill, South Carolina, with Tepper’s real estate company declaring bankruptcy in the middle of construction.

Now, after deciding to hire Frank Reich to lead the team moving forward, both Reich and the Panthers are in desperate need of the one thing that has kept them from having consistent success in this league over the last few years- a franchise quarterback.

But which one?

Look guys, don’t overthink this. Yeah, you had lightning in a bottle with Cam Newton, but you’re not going to recreate it with Anthony Richardson out of Florida.

You could have gotten that Cam Newton feeling back by pursuing Lamar Jackson, but you wanted a fresh start. It’s not what I would have done, but I respect it. 

And I know that there are some people that believe Panthers QB coach Josh McCown is the next Bill Belichick, but even old Bill is looking mighty human without a Hall of Fame quarterback under center. 

Rumor has it that Frank Reich believes Ohio State’s CJ Stroud should be the Panthers QB of the future, while owner David Tepper is trending more toward selecting Alabama’s Bryce Young.

I haven’t said this often, but this time I’m going to say it loudly and say it with my chest. 

David Tepper is right. 

The Panthers need someone low maintenance. Someone that won’t run into danger. Someone that makes all the right reads, and gets the ball out quickly. 

This is simple, Carolina.

All Bryce Young needs to be an NFL star is time and patience. I know Josh McCown is in the building, but he’s not going to suit up if Young isn’t ready to compete on day 1. 

So I want to applaud the Panthers for going out and getting Andy Dalton– Someone that can give you 8-10 solid starts while showing Bryce the ropes of what it takes on a day-to-day basis to be a successful quarterback in this league. 

And when Dalton has given you everything they have left in the tank, let Bryce loose, and give your fan base some things to look forward to as you head into the next offseason. 

I don’t begrudge the Panthers if they kick the tires on CJ Stroud. He’s an elite prospect, and he has the one thing Bryce Young doesn’t- size.

But on Draft Day, you better pull that post-it out of your pocket like Kevin Costner and take the one player that can give your franchise and its fans hope for the next decade plus.

Bryce Young no matter what. 

Let that sink in.

Eric Bienemy Bet On Himself With Move to Commanders. I’m Betting On Him Too.

bienemy

We need to talk about Eric Bienemy betting on himself and moving to a play calling role with the Washington Commanders. 

Year after year, the goalposts were moved for Eric Bienemy. 

He reportedly interviewed for 17 of the 23 NFL head coaching job openings since 2019. And unless he was walking into the room with drool on his chin and his fly unzipped, the collective decision to hire anyone but him has become one of the more frustrating and fascinating aspects of the yearly coaching carousel. 

And if he was out here tanking interviews, you can absolutely guarantee that the NFL’s premier newsbreakers like Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter would assist any owner or general manager in anonymously slandering Bienemy- and that just hasn’t happened.

I’ve talked at length before that it’s not as simple as racism. People hire who they’re comfortable with, whether through word of mouth, prior work experience, or a cookie cutter idea of what a good leader looks like. You’re far more likely to get an owner to sign off on a hire because of the way an interviewee makes them feel than because of that candidate’s offensive or defensive schematics. 

Think about the way we elect politicians. The best person to enact positive policy change is rarely the person we’d be most comfortable having a beer with, but that’s an enormous factor in the way that we vote. 

The “likeability” factor influencing our decisions is probably a good reason why so many things in this country are broken. And it’s definitely a reason why there’s an average of a 20% turnover year over year in the NFL’s head coaching ranks.

These rich old men would rather pay multi year buyouts to men that remind them of their grandsons than give a shot to someone that has been a part of 10 consecutive winning seasons, eight consecutive playoff appearances, five consecutive AFC Championships, and three different Super Bowl runs. 

Around now is when I’ll have people start bursting through the wall to tell me that “Eric Bienemy doesn’t call plays!” First of all, it’s a collaborative effort in Kansas City. Just ask Doug Pederson, who got hired by the Eagles after sharing play calling duties with Reid. Or ask Matt Nagy. Or ask Brad Childress. 

It’s extremely common to hire a head coach that isn’t the primary play caller, and it’s certainly more common to hire someone that didn’t call the offense in their previous job than it is to be a successful head coach that does call your team’s offense! Andy Reid, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are the exception, not the rule. 

Maybe the Colts and Cardinals hires will work out. The Colts are in need of someone that can get the most out of a young quarterback, and so maybe it makes sense for them to go with Shane Steichen, who helped Jalen Hurts become a Super Bowl caliber player over the last two years. 

But Arizona? They went from giving offensive “genius” Kliff Kingsbury a five year extension last year, to hiring a defensive minded head coach whose defense gave up about a billion second half points on the Cardinals home field earlier in the week. Maybe they figured that Kyler Murray already showed enough contempt for one of Patrick Mahomes former coaches, but the difference between Bienemy and Kingsbury is that one of them spends every January on a beach and one spends every January on a sideline. 

And one of them won more games at State Farm Stadium this season than the other did in eight tries this season. Yikes.

At the end of the day, Eric Bienemy was forced to leave a great job, working for a great man, and coaching one of the greatest talents we’ve ever seen, just to prove to his doubters that he checks more boxes than many of his peers. 

It’s hard to feel sorry for someone whose fallback plan of staying with the Chiefs would be most coaches’ fantasy, but he’s walking into a Washington Commanders situation where the offense was actually good last year. Seriously, look it up. Despite all the issues at QB, and the inability to finish drives, and the turnover problems, this was a team that moved the ball well despite being in a division with three playoff defenses. 

Bienemy is walking a tightrope for a traditionally snakebitten franchise, with no guarantee that success is going to earn him the opportunity he’s looking for. 

You have to respect his decision, and the risk involved. There’s gonna be a whole lot of NFL GM’s and fan bases rooting for his failure simply to justify past decisions. And even if he does succeed in Washington D.C., the only thing he’ll be earning is an opportunity to have those same people root for him to fail as a head coach, all to say that they’ve been right all along. 

But for every hater, like his former RB Shady McCoy, Bienemy has legions of people like me, and Patrick Mahomes, that are much more interested in seeing him prove the doubters wrong and carve out a place for himself as a head coach in this league.

And if that day ever comes, the “I told you so’s” are going to rain from the sky like Super Bowl confetti. And I’ll be here for it.

Let that sink in.

Fans Blaming The Refs For the Correct Call Takes Away From a Near-Perfect Super Bowl

We need to talk about the spoiled fans still finding ways to complain about a near-perfect Super Bowl.

With the game tied at 35 and under two minutes remaining, the Chiefs had a third-and-8 from the Eagles 15. JuJu Smith-Schuster attempted to release to the outside, but James Bradberry had a handful of jersey. The refs threw a flag. Bradberry admitted he got caught after the game. Case closed. 
What’s so hard about that? 

I’m a person who has criticized referees. I’m a Pac-12 fan, so it comes with the territory. But this game ended with the correct call. Despite not having slow motion super zoomed 4k replay from 30 different angles, they nailed it. 

Now, if you’re an Eagles fan, and you just need something to direct your frustration toward instead of climbing light poles and flipping cars, I get it. And I feel for you that James Bradberry decided to tell the truth and take away your primary non-inward accountability gripe. 
But if you’re a fan of any other NFL franchise, and you’re complaining that the game didn’t have the storybook ending of a two-minute drive attempt by Jalen Hurts to win or tie the game, you’re letting your fantasy get in the way of a fantastic reality. 

This game had four different occasions where the score was tied, and five different lead changes. It had a missed field goal, a defensive touchdown, a tied record for rushin touchdowns by a single player in Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes came back from re-aggravating his ankle to play a perfect second half. 

Sheryl Lee Ralph absolutely killed Lift Every Voice and Sing. We got to see Babyface sing America the Beautiful. Chris Stapleton should sing every National Anthem from here on out, and Rihanna? Hit after hit after hit. 

Despite Arian Foster’s joke, the beauty of live sports is that there is no script. This isn’t Star Wars or Batman. We don’t need the toxic fandom that comes with science fiction and fantasy movies just because we didn’t find every moment pleasing. 

Now, you can say you wished the game had ended differently, but if you spend too much time focused on your unmet expectations, you lose that gratitude that comes with focusing on the fact that Jalen Hurts had the game of his life, and Patrick Mahomes added to a legacy that is already better than maybe all but five quarterbacks ever by the age of 27.

This game was as good as a game can get. Let that sink in. Even if you have to get out of your own way to do it. 

The Dallas Cowboys Social Media Team Did The Players Dirty After Their Playoff Loss

2020 NFL Week Five Recap: Dak, Four Up Four Down, Top Game Week 6

We need to talk about the way the Dallas Cowboys are throwing Dak Prescott and Trevon Diggs under the bus for their Divisional Round loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

As social media has evolved to become the dominant way that sports fans get their news, teams have figured out that the best way to align the public’s desire for content with the team’s desire to control the message, was to hire journalists to create in-house content. 

Some of the best content out there comes directly from the teams themselves, but anyone that pays attention to the professional sports media landscape knows that in-house media’s job can be summed up in one phrase:

“promote, and don’t rock the boat.”

That’s why it was so shocking to so many around the league to see the Dallas Cowboys official Twitter account lay the blame for their 19-12 defeat at the hands of the 49ers squarely at the feet of franchise quarterback Dak Prescott and pro bowl defensive back Trevon Diggs.

Immediately after the game, DallasCowboys.com writer Patrik Walker posted an article titled “Dak on Loss to 49ers: ‘Unacceptable, 100% On Me’, ” which was then tweeted out by the Cowboys official Twitter account with the caption “Dak Prescott gave away the ball twice in the narrow loss to the 49ers, in a matchup the Cowboys had a chance to win if they didn’t again generate self-inflicted wounds.”

They immediately followed that with another article from Walker that called this Cowboys season “anything but special.”

The Cowboys social media team also emptied the clip on Trevon Diggs with a post that stated “Diggs can’t snag key INT,” and they didn’t even bother to include an author’s name on that article. 

Now, you might be saying to yourself, “none of these are hit jobs, they’re just harsh facts.”

But in-house media doesn’t deal in harsh facts. They embrace discourse and analysis insofar as it keeps your time and attention squarely within their boundaries.

And they go a long way to make sure that franchise players are insulated from the type of criticism that comes from outside media critics.

For an example of how far they go, look no further than the fact that the Los Angeles Lakers Twitter account has never once included a photo of LeBron James in any final score tweet after a loss. 

Even if a loss has nothing to do with LeBron James, the Lakers don’t want you to associate an image of the NBA’s most famous player with losing.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are over here like “look at these losers Dak and Trevon.”

Before you go pat the Cowboys on the back for journalistic integrity, let’s wait and see if they post anything critical of the person responsible who paid Dak Prescott, or who hired a head coach that had a six-playoff trip streak of getting bounced before the Super Bowl, or who didn’t replace Brett Maher after four missed extra points, which led to Mike McCarthy hesitating to attempt a 52-yard field goal before halftime.

Had the Cowboys kicked a field goal there, Dak has one less interception, and Tony Pollard doesn’t break his leg right before he hits free agency. 

But you won’t see anything on the Dallas Cowboys social media about that.

Because it’s not about the Dallas Cowboys in-house media team suddenly channeling the journalistic spirit of Walter Cronkite. 

It’s about pointing the finger for nearly three decades of failure in any direction other than the one it should go.

Toward the owner, Jerry Jones.

Let that sink in.

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets

Before we talk about the NFL Conference Championships, let’s pour one out to the season. There are only two days of NFL football left before it goes on a hiatus. Enjoy it, and more importantly, bet it (responsibly).

*Lines as of 1/27 at 2:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

49ers +2.5 vs. Eagles

If you had doubts about the health of Jalen Hurts, those quickly disappeared last week against the Giants. Hurts was a man possessed in the first half, leading the Eagles offense to touchdowns on four of their first five possessions. The Eagles offensive line is the best unit in football, especially with Lane Johnson back in the lineup. Johnson and Jason Kelce have not given up a sack since Week 6 of the 2021 season. It’s 2023! Philly’s defensive line is also a top 3 unit in football after registering 70 (!) sacks in the regular season. Plus, Get Up had a stat this morning – Philly’s 3rd-down sack percentage is 18.2%. The league average is 9.6 %.

All signs point to Philly, but I’m siding with San Francisco’s all-star roster with a rookie QB. Last week was Brock Purdy’s worst start of his career with 214 yards passing and a QBR of 87.4. Yet, he didn’t turn the ball over and made the necessary plays to win against a stout Cowboys defense. The 49ers defense is ranked first overall in DVOA. I also prefer the 49ers playmakers (non QB) – CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk – over the Eagles skill guys – AJB, Sanders, DeVonta, Goedert. When push comes to shove, I trust Kyle Shanahan, even with his clock management deficienes, more than Nick Sirianni. Shanny is 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. Hopefully, it’s 8-1 after Sunday.

Bengals +1.5 vs. Chiefs

Is Joe Burrow “him?” He might be! Since his historic season in 2019, Burrow has shown up in big game after big game. In six playoff games, Burrow has thrown for over 1500 yards with eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.4. Cincy’s confidence is skyhigh, considering they’ve beaten the Chiefs in three-straight games, including last year’s AFC Championship. In those three wins, the Bengals have outscored the Chiefs 47-20 in the second half. Lou Anarumo’s ability to adjust the Cincy defense in the second half has been the difference.

All that being said, this game comes down to Patrick Mahomes and his ankle. Mahomes has been tremendous in 12 playoff games – 3500 yards, 30 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.2. However, the high ankle sprain scares me. Mahomes will be shot up with god knows what in his ankle to play on Sunday. I’m sure he’ll be effective at times, but the typical recovery for this injury is 4-6 weeks. He’s playing on this ankle 8 days after the injury. I don’t trust his ankle to hold up. Therefore, Cincy gets to their second-straight Super Bowl.

NFL Conference Championship Teaser

6 POINTS: 49ers +2.5>+8.5, Bengals +1.5>+7.5

The teasers have not been kind to me this postseason. I can’t say that I’m thrilled to be trusting two underdogs to cover the tease. However, I’m expecting two close games, which is perfect for a teaser.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

2023 Wild Card Round

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

2023 Divisional Round

Bets of the Week: 2-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Trevor Lawrence throwing a pass.

The best football weekend of the year is upon us as the NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday night. It was a winning Wild Card Weekend for me, so let’s keep the train rolling.

*Lines as of 1/20 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Chiefs -8.5 vs. Jaguars

Everyone and their mother will be throwing the Chiefs in a teaser this weekend. Why? For starters, Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round (4-0). In Mahomes’s four Divisional games, the Chiefs have scored 36.5 points per game with an average margin of victory of 12.25 points. Not too shabby! Andy Reid is also dominant off a bye week as his teams are 27-4 (including the regular season). I love where the Jaguars are heading. Last week’s comeback victory over the Chargers set this franchise in the right direction. The Jags are on a six-game winning streak with a 5-1 ATS record in that timeframe. Jacksonville needs to get off to a fast start for them to have any chance at winning. However, #15 in red loves fast starts as the catalyst to the third-highest scoring first-half offense in the league on a per-game average (15.6). It’s a close game at the half, but the Chiefs pull away to cover.

Giants vs. Eagles over 48.5

As I mentioned last week, I am a diehard Giants fan, so I’m rooting for the Giants. I also don’t put any money down on the Giants because of my poor record betting on the teams I love. If I were to bet on this game, the over is the play. The Eagles are the highest-scoring first half team in the league (17.4 points). During the season, the over was 10-7 in Eagles games. Do you know which team has been one of the hottest over teams in the second half? The New York Football Giants, with the over hitting in seven of their last nine games. Go Giants, but the safer play is to root for points.

Bengals +5.5 vs Bills

The hardest game to handicap is the contest between the Bengals and the Bills. It’s an overused phrase, but I truly believe whoever has the ball last will win the game. Both teams were not particularly impressive in their wins during Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals needed a miraculous defensive touchdown to beat Tyler Huntley, and the Bills needed to come from behind to defeat third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Bengals missing three starting offensive linemen shouldn’t be swept to the side. Josh Allen committing the most turnover at the QB position is something that also shouldn’t be taken lightly. Both teams should be able to score, so the over is a solid play. Because I think this will be a close game, the Bills will win by a field goal so take the Bengals and the points.

49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

The two most impressive teams in the Wild Card Round will now face off in the last game of Divisional Weekend. You know where I stand on the Niners. If I wasn’t a Giants fan, I would be a Niners fan. This roster is stacked beyond belief. During this 11-game winning streak, the Niners offense is second in EPA per play. As long as Brock Purdy doesn’t turn the ball over, the Niners can win the Super Bowl. However, the Cowboys are pretty damn good as well. Dak Prescott played the game of his life against Tampa, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. The Niners offense will also play the best defense they’ve seen in months, but that works both ways as the Niners are the best defense in football, surrounding the fewest yards per game (300.6). I liked the Niners to win the game before they knew their opponent. After seeing Brett Maher miss four extra points, I feel better that the Niners will cover the three and change.

NFL Divisional Round Teaser

6 POINTS: Chiefs -8.5>-2.5, Bengals/Bills Over 49.5>Over 43.5

As I stated at the beginning of the article, the entire world will tease the Chiefs to under three points. The question lies with who (or what) to tease them with. Honestly, it’s not a week for teasers. However, getting the total to 43.5 in the Bengals-Bills seems to be the best option. The Bengals haven’t scored under 20 points since October 9, and the Bills haven’t scored under 20 points since November 6. Both teams average over 25 points per game. That’s good enough for the over.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

2023 Wild Card Round

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

And with that, the 2022 NFL regular season comes to an end. For my gambling stats, I started hot, nose-dived in the middle, and regained my composure at the end. The final record was 34-29-1, which comes out to approximately 53%. I’ll take it after the 1-4 weeks I was putting up in the middle of the season. Now, it’s a new season as we head into NFL Wild Card Weekend. With only six games, I will share my predictions for every game. Spoiler alert: I LOVE my teaser the most.

*Lines as of 1/14 at 12 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

49ers -9.5 vs. Seahawks

In the preseason, my Super Bowl prediction was the Bills over the Niners. People jumped off the bandwagon when James G was ruled out for the season, but I trusted Kyle Shanahan to right the ship and bring this team to the playoffs. 10 straight wins later, the Niners are primed for a big postseason run. During this winning streak, the offense has averaged over 30 points per game while their defense surrenders the least amount of yards per game. Rain is expected in Santa Clara so it will be a wet one, which helps Seattle. Is it hard to beat a team three times in a season? Yes. However, the Niners are much better than a Seattle team who probably shouldn’t be in the playoffs. Niners will run away with this game in the second half.

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Chargers

Are you ready to Jag off? Because I am! The Jaguars ripped off five straight wins to make the playoffs, capped off by an ugly 20-16 win over the Titans to win the AFC South. As a Trevor Lawrence believer, the young QB played poorly last week. I don’t expect that to happen two weeks in a row. The Chargers want teams to run on them (145.8 yards per game), so if you want a prop bet, Travis Etienne over 78.5 yards rushing looks good. The main reason I like the Jags is the coaching advantage they possess. I trust Doug Pederson more than Brandon Staley. Mike Williams should not have been playing last week. One back injury later and the Chargers best WR is out for the playoffs. That’s indefensible, and the Chargers’ offense will suffer. Jags pull out a close win on Wild Card Weekend.

Bills -13.5 vs. Dolphins

I don’t want to waste too much time on this game. If Tua was playing, this would’ve been a good game. If Teddy Bridgewater was playing, it would be less fun but still manageable. I have zero faith in Skylar Thompson. The Bills should blow the Fins out of the water.

Giants +3 vs. Vikings

*BIAS ALERT* I am a diehard Giants fan, so I will keep this short and sweet. I actually don’t put money on the Giants because I’m afraid I will jinx them. Yes, I’m an 8-year-old with that mindset. However, I’m also 0 for 253 when betting on the Giants, so I stopped doing it a few years ago. That being said, this matchup will be a one-score game either way. By all stats, the Vikings might be the luckiest team ever. They’re still good, but 13 wins and a -3 point differential is as lucky as it gets. I’m scared that everyone loves the Giants, too, but the Giants will show up and deliver. (Please)

Ravens +8.5 vs. Bengals

The Bengals are going to win this game. I wanted to get that out of the way first. However, I like the Ravens to cover because of one man and one man only, Roquan Smith. The entire defense changed when Smith became a Raven. The First-Team All-Pro linebacker has anchored a Ravens defense that has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest points, 14.7 points per game, since his arrival. In that same span, the Ravens are third in defense DVOA, 10th against the pass, and 2nd against the run. Smith earned that contract extension. Even with Lamar Jackson out, Tyler Huntley should do enough to make this a 13-9 game going into the fourth quarter. Once again, Burrow finds a way to win, but the Ravens keep it close (and ugly).

Bucs +2.5 vs. Cowboys

The Cowboys stunk up the joint a week ago, losing to the Commanders 26-6. Dak Prescott played arguably the worst game of his career, completing 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and one pick-six. Do you trust the Cowboys, a team with three playoff wins since 1997, to bounce back against Tom Brady in the biggest game of the season? I don’t! It’s Tom Brady. The Bucs offense unlocked something two weeks ago in the fourth quarter of the Panthers game. They let Tommy sling it and opened up the field, which resulted in 20 points. The Cowboys will probably go into the half with the lead, and they might have it heading into the fourth quarter, but when it comes time for Brady to make a comeback, he’ll deliver in crunch time. Not for nothing, these two teams played in Week 1, and the Bucs won 19-3. I’m just saying…

NFL Wild Card Weekend Teaser

6 POINTS: Niners -9.5>-3.5, Jaguars +2.5>+8.5, Bills -13.5>-7.5

Why will this lose? I keep asking myself that question, and I don’t have an answer. The Jaguars would be the team to ruin the teaser, but I don’t see the Chargers winning on the road by more than a touchdown. If you swap out the Jags for the Bengals, I wouldn’t blame you at all. In fact, I’m going to make another teaser with Niners-Bills-Bengals.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

NFL Week 18 Best Bets

We have reached the end of the NFL regular season. Where did the time go? This weekend is the last full slate of games until September. Savor every moment. Watch every snap. Hell, bet every game (responsibly). After a 1-3 record in Week 17, I’m going out on top in Week 18.

Before you place a bet, check to see if the team is resting any players. Some teams need to win to improve their playoff seeding, and some teams need to lose to receive a better draft pick. Take advantage of these elements.

*Lines as of 1/7 at 12 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Week 18 Best Bets

Vikings -5.5 vs. Bears

After getting their doors blown off by the Packers, the Vikings dropped to the 3-seed in the NFC. If the 49ers defeat the Cardinals, the Vikings will be the 3-seed. If the 49ers lose and the Vikings win, Minnesota is the 2-seed. San Fran is a 14.5-point favorite, so the odds of losing are slim to none. What does this mean? The Vikings are going to rest their starters in the second half. Should I be worried? No, because Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bears, not Justin Fields. Yes, the same Peterman with three touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his career. If the Bears lose and the Texans win, the Bears get the number-one pick. The Bears are tanking, and the Vikings would like to win. It’s the perfect storm.

Steelers -2.5 vs. Browns

Death, taxes, and Mike Tomlin finishing the season over .500. After a disastrous 2-6 start, Pittsburgh has won six of their last eight, including a crucial divisional win over the Ravens a week ago. Is Kenny Pickett knocking my socks off with his three touchdown passes in five games? No, but he’s not turning the ball over (1 INT over that same span), and the Steelers are winning one-score games. For the Steelers to make the playoffs, they need to win, and the Patriots and Dolphins need to lose. That’s not far-fetched. The Browns have nothing to play for, but they also don’t have a first-round pick in 2023, so they will be looking to play the role of spoiler. Give me the Steelers at home by a field goal.

NFL Week 18 Underdog of the Week

Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs are a good team. They have the MVP at quarterback. In all likelihood, Kansas City will make the AFC Championship Game for the fifth straight year. However, Kansas City has a fatal flaw. They don’t cover. The Chiefs’ record ATS is alarmingly bad. The Chiefs are 5-10-1 ATS, second-worst in the NFL. Against AFC opponents, the Chiefs are a league-worse 1-10 ATS. Not good, Mike! Let me lay out the situation. The Chiefs need to win to lock up the one-seed in the playoffs so they will defeat the Raiders. However, the Chiefs are on the road playing a division rival who just scored 34 points on the ‘̶8̶5̶ ̶B̶e̶a̶r̶s̶ 49ers. The chiefs win by a touchdown, but the Raiders cover.

NFL Week 18 Teaser of the Week

7 POINTS: Vikings -6.5>+.5, Bills -7.5>-.5

The entire world will be rooting for the Bills in their first game after the terrifying situation with Damar Hamlin. The medical staff is heroes for saving that young man’s life. It’s a miracle that Hamlin will pull through, and I couldn’t be happier. Emotions will be high in Buffalo as they’re looking to secure the two-seed. Josh Allen owns the Patriots. Since 2020, Allen is 4-1 with ten touchdowns and one interception. The Bills are going to pull this one out.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 15-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-7

Teaser of the Week: 8-7

Total: 31-28-1