Tag: 1917

Ready for the 2020 Oscars? First, I gave you my picks. Now, I want to make you some money. Betting the Oscars is not a typical bet. It’s not like a sports bet where the result is determined live. Oscar bets are voted on by the Academy so essentially, we’re betting on how a group of people voted. It’s not easy, but there are some keys to look for while betting the 2020 Oscars.

• Use Results From Other Award Shows As Guide – It’s very rare for an award winner to come out of nowhere. Usually, each category has one to three contenders. In most cases, these contenders won awards at major shows like the Golden Globes, SAGs, or BAFTAs. Furthermore, for technical awards, there are guild awards given out for crafts like writing, editing, and cinematography. The more awards won at the guilds, the better the chances of winning an Oscar.
• Favorites Win A Lot – This doesn’t help when it comes to making money, but it does pay off to pick favorites if you are doing an Oscars pool where you have to pick winners without odds.
• Look For Bets With The Best Value – The bets I’m suggesting to make are not “locks.” Most of them are underdogs and long shots. They may not win, but it’s your best chance of making money. Try to avoid categories where the favorite is significantly out of reach.
• Bet At Your Own Risk – I’m not legally obligated to say this, but I’m going to say it anyway. Have fun, but be smart!

*Odds taken from Draftkings at 5:30 PM EST. Subject to change.

My picks do NOT reflect who I believe will win. They reflect the best bet you can make to win the most money.

Best Picture

Great value here for the top three spots. 1917 is the favorite because of Best Picture wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and PGAs. Right on its tail is Parasite, which won the Best Ensemble Award at the SAGs and will win Best International Feature Film. My pick is 1917 because the PGA winner has won 8 of the last 10 Best Pictures at the Oscars. Plus, it has great odds for a frontrunner. I’d bet on both 1917 and Parasite. If you have extra money to blow, sprinkle a little cash on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The Academy loves Tarantino and they love movies about Hollywood. 10 to 1 odds make for a great payout.

Bets To Make: 1917 in Best Picture -125 and/or Parasite in Best Picture +150

Every Acting Category

Do you like lighting your money on fire? If so, then you’ll love betting on the acting categories. I’m trying to make a case for any actor not named Renée Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern, but I can’t do it with a straight face. All four actors are heavy favorites and have few losses on their resumes this season. Even though I don’t believe this will happen, if I had to pick one upset, it would be Scarlett Johansson in Best Actress. I can’t advise anyone to place a bet on an underdog in any of these categories, but Scar Jo in Marriage Story would be my play.

Bet To Make: Scarlett Johansson in Best Actress +1000

Best Original Screenplay And Best Adapted Screenplay

Two categories, two underdogs that have legitimate shots at winning. Let’s start with original screenplay. Parasite is the favorite because of wins at the WGAs and BAFTAs. However, right on Director Bong’s heels is Mr. Quentin Tarantino. You can never count out Tarantino in the original screenplay category because of his two previous wins for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained. I would never blame someone for betting on Tarantino. In adapted screenplay, Jojo Rabbit also picked up wins at the WGA and BAFTAs. However, Greta Gerwig wrote the best adaptation of Little Women to date. Do not count her out, but Taika Waititi and Jojo is the best bet to make.

Bets To Make: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in Best Orginal Screenplay +150 // Jojo Rabbit in Best Adapted Screenplay -177

Best Sound Editing And Best Sound Mixing

The 1917 domino starts in the technical categories. If it wins in both sound editing and sound mixing, then 1917 is due for a huge night. That’s a possibility that may end up happening. However, for betting, Ford v Ferrari as a slight underdog in both categories is juicy. Ford v Ferrari is a very loud and effective film. If I had to choose which category Ford v Ferrari will win, I’m going with sound mixing.

Bet To Make: Ford v Ferrari in Best Sound Mixing +125

What are your best bets for the 2020 Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

Oh, happy day! The 2020 Oscars are finally here. I love the Oscars. I always see people complaining about how it’s boring or too long on Twitter. I’m in the opposite camp. Make the ceremony 10 hours long and I’ll watch it from start to finish.

Will tonight be all chalk or will history be made? 1917 could clean up in all of the technical categories along with wins for Best Director and Best Picture. Parasite could become the first foreign film to win Best Picture. All of the acting categories include huge favorites, but the technical categories are up for grabs. Overall, I’m excited for tonight.

Without further ado, here are my picks.

BEST PICTURE

• Ford v Ferrari 
• The Irishman 
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker 
• Little Women
• Marriage Story 
• 1917 
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
• Parasite 

The biggest award of the night is a two-horse race. 1917 is the favorite thanks to Best Picture wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and PGAs. However, Parasite, my favorite movie of 2019, is making a late push thanks to its win at the SAGs. If Parasite wins Best Picture, it would be the first foreign film to ever accomplish this feat. However, 1917’s win at the PGA was significant since 10 of the last 12 PGA winners went on to take home Best Picture at the Oscars. My pick is 1917.

P.S. The wild card in this race is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Quentin Tarantino has a lot of support in the Academy. It’s a movie full of stars during the Golden Age of Hollywood. It’s right up the Academy’s alley. Plus, OUATIH has multiple acting nominations. The last film to win Best Picture without an acting nomination was Slumdog Millionaire in 2009. (1917 and Parasite both have zero acting nominations.) If Tarantino wins for original screenplay, look out for OUATIH.

P.S.S. Enough with the narrative that 1917 winning Best Picture is boring. It’s an achievement in filmmaking that people are going to remember for a while.

Who Should Win: Parasite
Who Will Win: 1917

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
• Todd Phillips – Joker
• Sam Mendes – 1917
• Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Take my Best Picture argument and apply the same principles to Best Director. Mendes has won practically every directing award on the awards season circuit. However, people (including me) love Director Bong and Parasite. Tarantino is on the outside looking in. However, 1917 is in for a big night and Mendes will pick up his second win for Best Director.

Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Who Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917

BEST ACTOR

• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory as Salvador Mallo
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Rick Dalton
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story as Charlie Barber
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker as Arthur Fleck / Joker
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes as Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio

I wish this category was more of a competition between Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix. I preferred Driver’s performance because of his ability to capture the emotional trauma and brutal truth of what happens during a divorce. However, Joaquin’s physical and mental transformation in Joker was undeniably good. I like Joaquin and I enjoyed Joker so I have no problem with him winning.

Who Should Win: Adam Driver – Marriage Story as Charlie Barber
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker as Arthur Fleck / Joker

BEST ACTRESS

• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet as Harriet Tubman
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story as Nicole Barber
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women as Josephine “Jo” March
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell as Megyn Kelly
• Renée Zellweger – Judy as Judy Garland

Confession: I never saw Judy. I had the opportunity to watch it on a plane, but I chose to watch The Peanut Butter Falcon instead. Renée Zellweger hasn’t lost in this category all season and I don’t expect that to change. However, I’d love for Saoirse Ronan to win. She’s probably the best actress of her generation and it sucks that she’s going to have to wait a little longer to win an Oscar.

Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan – Little Women as Josephine “Jo” March
Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger – Judy as Judy Garland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as Fred Rogers
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes as Pope Benedict XVI
• Al Pacino – The Irishman as Jimmy Hoffa
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman as Russell Bufalino
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth

Brad Fucking Pitt. This is the speech I’m looking forward to the most.

Who Should Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell as Barbara “Bobi” Jewell
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story as Nora Fanshaw
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit as Rosie Betzler
• Florence Pugh – Little Women as Amy March
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell as Kayla Pospisil

I love Florence Pugh and she’ll be a force for years to come, but it’s time for Laura Dern to collect some hardware. No arguments here.

Who Should Win: Florence Pugh – Little Women as Amy March
Who Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story as Nora Fanshaw

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Knives Out – Rian Johnson
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
• 1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
• Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

Toughest category to predict. All five of these scripts are stellar. However, this will come down to Tarantino and Bong. Tarantino has the experience thanks to his two previous wins in this category. That being said, Bong won at the Writers Guild Awards (Tarantino was not eligible) last week, but I still believed Tarantino would win at the Oscars. Fast forward to the BAFTAs and Bong beat Tarantino head-to-head in this category. Because of that, I’m going with Bong by the slimmest of margins.

Who Should Win: Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won
Who Will Win: Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Irishman – Steven Zaillian based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt
• Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
• Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott
• The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten based on his play The Pope

Once again, another early frontrunner came back to the pack. This should be Greta Gerwig’s first Oscar win because Little Women was brilliant. Unfortunately, I don’t think she wins here. Taika Waititi has all the momentum in the world thanks to two wins over Gerwig at the WGAs and the BAFTAs. Taika walks home a winner.

Who Should Win: Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott
Who Will Win: Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – Dean DeBlois, Bonnie Arnold, and Brad Lewis
• I Lost My Body – Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
• Klaus – Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, and Marisa Román
• Missing Link – Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, and Travis Knight
• Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen

When in doubt, Pixar at the Oscars. When in even more doubt, Toy Story at the Oscars.

Who Should Win: Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen
Who Will Win: Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Corpus Christi (Poland) in Polish – Directed by Jan Komasa
• Honeyland (North Macedonia) in Turkish and Macedonian^[9] – Directed by Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov
• Les Misérables (France) in French – Directed by Ladj Ly
• Pain and Glory (Spain) in Spanish – Directed by Pedro Almodóvar
• Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho

Who Should Win: Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho
Who Will Win: Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert
• The Cave – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær
• The Edge of Democracy – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan
• For Sama – Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts
• Honeyland – Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev

Flip a coin between American Factory and Honeyland. I’ll back the Obama-produced American Factory.

Who Should Win: American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert
Who Will Win: American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir
• Little Women – Alexandre Desplat
• Marriage Story – Randy Newman
• 1917 – Thomas Newman
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams

Five really good scores. If any person in this category won, I’d be happy. It’s a win-win-win-win-win for me. One of my favorite scores of the year belongs to Randy Newman, who has never won in this category. However, Hildur Guðnadóttir’s haunting score was the co-MVP of Joker.

Who Should Win: Marriage Story – Randy Newman
Who Will Win: Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 – Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman
• “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
• “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
• “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
• “Stand Up” from Harriet – Music and Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo

This should have happened at the Oscars. It’s a damn shame. Since it’s not happening, I’ll always root for Elton John.

Who Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
Who Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
• Joker – Lawrence Sher
• The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
• 1917 – Roger Deakins
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson

Roger “The God” Deakins.

Who Should Win: 1917 – Roger Deakins
Who Will Win: 1917 – Roger Deakins

*Note: The difference between sound editing and sound mixing at the Oscars is confusing and I still don’t understand it. However, if you said 1917 wins all of the technical categories, I wouldn’t blame you. That being said, Ford v Ferrari might split with 1917. I’m honestly not sure and I’ll stop talking.

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari – Donald Sylvester
• Joker – Alan Robert Murray
• 1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Wylie Stateman
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Matthew Wood and David Acord

Who Should Win: 1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Who Will Win: 1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
• Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
• Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
• 1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano

Who Should Win: Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
Who Will Win: 1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Irishman – Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
• Jojo Rabbit – Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
• 1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
• Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo

Who Should Win: Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo
Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

3D printing transforms Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly for Bombshell: https://t.co/Vw53WyuJ9k Learn more about #3Dprinting: https://t.co/cF2Nwuv4gi pic.twitter.com/pt0eo4X2cM

— Aitemy Learning (@AitemyLearning) February 4, 2020

• Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
• Joker – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
• Judy – Jeremy Woodhead
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White
• 1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole

Who Should Win: Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
Who Will Win: Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• The Irishman – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
• Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo
• Joker – Mark Bridges
• Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips

Who Should Win: Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
Who Will Win: Little Women – Jacqueline Durran

BEST FILM EDITING

• Ford v Ferrari – Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
• The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
• Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles
• Joker – Jeff Groth
• Parasite – Yang Jin-mo

Who Should Win: Parasite – Yang Jin-mo
Who Will Win: Parasite – Yang Jin-mo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick
• The Irishman – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda
• The Lion King – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman
• 1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy

Who Should Win: Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick
Who Will Win: 1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy

Note: I’m a novice when it comes to shorts at the Oscars so these predictions are based on what I’ve read.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

• In the Absence – Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
• Life Overtakes Me – John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
• St. Louis Superman – Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
• Walk Run Cha-Cha – Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt

Who Should Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Who Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
• Nefta Football Club – Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
• The Neighbors’ Window – Marshall Curry
• Saria – Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
• A Sister – Delphine Girard

Who Should Win: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Who Will Win: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• Dcera (Daughter) – Daria Kashcheeva
• Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
• Kitbull – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
• Memorable – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
• Sister – Siqi Song

Who Should Win: Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
Who Will Win: Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver

Do you agree with these predictions for the 2020 Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.