Aaron Judge vs Barry Bonds- What Does it Mean to be the “Real Home Run King?”

MLB Aaron Judge Yankees

We need to talk about what it means to be the real “home run king.”

And before you think that I’m about to diminish either Barry Bonds, Roger Maris, or Aaron Judge, take a seat and listen up. 

I’m not here to diminish any of those guys. I’m here to diminish the very idea of diminishing those guys. 

When we call someone a ‘king,’ why do we completely ignore the way that monarchies actually function? When someone is a monarch, they are a monarch for their era. Queen Elizabeth II was the Queen of England. King Charles taking over the crown after her death doesn’t mean Elizabeth relinquishes her title as the longest-reigning monarch in British history. 

And no one I know is wasting time and energy putting an asterisk next to Elizabeth’s name for being a Constitutional Monarch instead of an Absolute Monarch. She was a product of her era, but she still wore the crown. The details of her rule are the footnotes and context that make her reign interesting.

That brings me back to baseball. Part of the beauty of baseball is the recognition of the variance from era to era. The Dead Ball Era, the Live Ball Era, the Integration Era, the Expansion Era, the Free Agency Era, and the Steroid Era are the footnotes and context we provide for the players that earned their crowns.


Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in a season. The context was that it happened in a 154 game season, and he did it without having to face a single black pitcher. There are no asterisks, those are just the details.


Roger Maris hit his 61st home run in his 161st game of the 1961 season. 1961 was the first season that the AL played 162 games. Through 154 games, Maris had 58 home runs. Not to mention, Mickey Mantle’s entire body fell apart in September of that season when he had 54 home runs himself, leaving Maris to chase the record alone. There are no asterisks, those are just the details. 


Aaron Judge hit his 62nd home run this week to pass Roger Maris for the AL crown, and two of the home runs he hit this season would only be considered a home run in one park in the entire Major Leagues- an advantage provided by playing in Yankee Stadium with its short right field porch. There are no asterisks, those are just the details. 


Barry Bonds carried 3 MVPs and three On Base Percentage titles into the Steroid Era. He passed Ruth and Roger Maris to become the single season home run king in the 135th game of the 2001 season. He did it while leading the league in walks. He did it batting against pitchers that had access to every chemical resource that he did. And he did it in a season where Phil Nevin, Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Todd Helton and Jim Thome all interestingly posted their best-ever home run seasons.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Pres


For Barry Bonds, there should be no asterisk. Those should just be the factual details and context surrounding Bonds’ place as the Home Run King, not only of his era, but of the NL, and MLB. 
The only thing left to legitimize not only Bonds, but the era in which Bonds played- an era that not only saved baseball from the disinterest brought upon by a work stoppage, but also provided a path forward for baseball to put guidelines in place for performance enhancing substances moving forward, is his inclusion in the MLB Hall of Fame. The same Hall of fame that chose to include Bud Selig in 2017, despite him being in charge of not only the Steroid Era, but also the work stoppage that many people claim necessitated the Steroid Era.


The same Hall of Fame that has no issue carrying the name of notorious asshole and attempted murderer Ty Cobb, and the same Hall of Fame that proudly carries the legacy of Gaylord Perry and his 300+ vaseline-aided wins and 3500+ spit-enhanced strikeouts.


I’m not advocating that anyone be kicked out of the Hall for the sake of purity, I’m asking that baseball simply recognize its royalty with respect to the details and context of their eras, as they’ve done with every era but the one Barry Bonds reigned over.


Baseball’s greatest shame isn’t the Steroid Era, baseball’s greatest shame has always been the exclusion of its Monarchs, starting with the Monarchs out of Kansas City of the Negro Leagues, and now with the refusal to recognize the true Home Run King.


Let that sink in

MLB: Are the Three True Outcomes of At-Bats Killing Baseball?

MLB Players only Walk, strikeout or hit a homerun Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge

These days, it hardly seems like you can watch a single MLB at-bat where the hitter doesn’t walk, strikeout or blast a home run into the seats. Indeed, a quick look at the data shows that the “three true outcomes” are happening at the highest rate of all-time. Just over 1/3 of all at-bats resulted in either a walk, home run or a strikeout in 2018.

MLB’s attendance dropped in 2018 as well, to its lowest point in the last 15 years. Is the rise of three true outcomes truly causing the decline of attendance in baseball, or is this simply a coincidence, with other factors at play?

After all, while baseball is increasingly become a battle between pitcher and hitter, and less about the defense, it’s not like this is a brand new phenomenon. Bobby Bonds, the father of the great Barry Bonds, recorded 32 home runs, 81 walks and 175 strikeouts way back in 1969, which meant a whopping 41.7% of his plate appearances resulted in one of the three true outcomes.

Bonds may be one of the first, but the ringleader for this group of sluggers is no doubt Adam Dunn. Dunn mashed in the big leagues from 2001 to 2014, hitting 462 home runs while drawing 1,317 walks and striking out 2,379 times. His career 49.9% three true outcomes rate is the highest of all-time, and he is truly the catalyst for this time of slugger.

A New Era: MLB Analytics

However, near 50% rates of three true outcomes is becoming more commonplace, as sluggers like Joey Gallo, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, and Paul Goldschmidt have embraced the “launch angle revolution”, which is the idea that it is more beneficial to swing with a heavy uppercut, intending to hit the ball in the air more often. This tends to lead to more strikeouts, but obviously more fly balls = more home runs.

Plus, with the ever growing shift in play, these sluggers have seen their chances of getting a hit on a ground ball nearly evaporate. Why try to hit the ball hard on the ground if the defenders are shifting to your pull side, effectively neutralizing your ability to get a hit?

Sure, the obvious response is “well these guys could bunt, or learn to slap the ball the other way” but – as they would tell you – they don’t get paid excess of $100 million dollars to slap the ball the other way, they get paid to get on base, drive runners in and hit home runs. While striking out isn’t a part of that equation, most (all?) managers will accept that as a necessary evil if their guy is also hitting 40 home runs and drawing nearly 100 walks per season.

As for the fans, well it’s kind of up to them. If you watch baseball because you like watching a shortstop make a play deep in the hole and throw someone out at first, then yes, this revolution is hurting the game you love.

Baseball’s Bigger Issues

However, pointing the finger at the three true outcomes is ignoring the bigger issues the game is facing. Namely, a lack of competition from roughly 50% of the league’s teams, as well as increasing ticket/concession prices, poor marketing of the team’s biggest stars, and a divide between the “old-school” line of thinking and the happy, celebrating “showboating” style of the game’s younger (and predominantly Latino) stars.

That’s a story for another day. For now, accept that baseball is going to have a lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks, and a lot of long, fun-to-watch home runs in the future. Even if that means your favorite shortstop doesn’t make as many plays.