Who’s Still In and Who’s Out: The 2019 Pac-12 Football Championship

Arizona State vs Stanford Football 2019

As we predicted earlier in the season, the PAC-12 is doing an excellent job of eating each other alive – a tradition unlike any other in the conference of champions.

Cal and Washington State both cost themselves spots in the top-25 with losses to Arizona State and Utah, respectively, leaving the conference with no undefeated teams.

At this point, because so many teams are lumped together, it’s hard to pick a clear favorite for the PAC-12 championship.

Here are the schools who still have a realistic chance of winning the PAC-12, with a look at their remaining schedule:

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 5

No. 13 Oregon Ducks (3-1)

Oregon’s loss to Auburn hurts, especially since it was a winnable game, but ultimately they are still the team best positioned to win the PAC-12 Championship, and possibly the only team who has a real chance at playing in the College Football Playoff this season.

That doesn’t mean it will be an easy road however, as they have true road games against Washington, Arizona State and USC, as well as a home date with the Cougars of Washington State.

Led by quarterback Justin Herbert, the Ducks should be playing meaningful football into the early part of 2020, but they still have some work to do to get there.

Washington Huskies Rose Bowl

No. 15 Washington Huskies (4-1)

A pounding by the Huskies of the Trojans on Montlake went a long way for this team, who is still rebounding from a tough, weather-aided loss to Cal at home a few weeks ago.

Washington actually has a somewhat favorable schedule going forward, as their two toughest opponents – Oregon and Utah – are both at home along with this year’s Apple Cup against Washington State.

Oregon is still the favorite, but the Huskies are also in good shape to make a push for a Rose Bowl berth if they can win out this season.

Utah Football Helmet
Sleeping on the Utes in 2019? Not a good idea.

No. 17 Utah Utes (4-1)

As I predicted, the Utes fell for the trap game against the USC Trojans down in California, wish dampened their hopes this season quite a bit.

They did bounce back with a commanding victory over Washington State, 38-13, but they’ll probably need to be perfect (or close to it) if they want to win the PAC-12 championship and play in either the Rose Bowl or the college football championship.

A date with the No. 15 Huskies in Montlake will be the biggest challenge they face, although back to back home bouts with Arizona State and Cal won’t be easy either.

Pac-12 Football Power Rankings Week 3

No. 20 Arizona State (4-1)

Arizona State is the biggest wildcard out of this group, but they did beat Michigan State earlier this season and just defeated Cal on the road, making them 4-1 with only a three-point loss to Colorado standing in their way.

They also have a favorable home schedule as well, with only Utah remaining as a tough conference game on the road.

They’ll have to defend their home turf against Oregon, Washington State, USC and rival Arizona, but they are a team to keep an eye on in the hyper-competitive PAC-12 conference this year.

Oregon vs. Stanford 2019 – The Ducks fly past sinking Stanford

Pac-12 Football Review: Oregon leads 2020 recruiting, BYU Games, KJ Costello

Oregon vs. Stanford 2019 was another in the series of two relatively new Pac-12 heavyweights. And yet, this iteration felt different.

The Stanford Cardinal have had a nightmarish start to the season, after winning the opener to Northwestern the Cardinal have lost three straight games including a 21-6 loss at home to the University of Oregon.

First Half

Facing a Ducks team ranked #16 in the nation and led by Heisman candidate Justin Herbert, the Cardinal would attempt to right the ship. Receiving the opening kickoff, the Cardinal drove 61 yards in 12 plays in 6:21 seconds, primarily off the legs of running back Cameron Scarlett. Unable to punch the ball into the endzone Stanford would settle for a field goal, taking a 3-0 lead.

The Cardinal defense was the one of a few bright spots on the day, keeping Herbert under 300 yards passing (19/24 259yards 3TDs). The Stanford defense also held Oregon’s rushing attack to 61 total yards. They harassed Herbert all game long, totaling four sacks and piled up seven tackles for loss.

On the Ducks third possession, however, Oregon found something exploitable in the Cardinal defense. Herbert hit wide receiver Jaylon Redd on a crossing route and he outraces the coverage for 36 yards and a lead changing score. Oregon went 55 yards on 2 plays, using only :35 off the clock to take a 7-3 lead. With his second completion, Herbert broke 8,000 yards passing. He also extended his streak of games with a passing TD to 32.

Still, the Cardinal were not out. Unfortunately their offense couldn’t get going, or even out of its own way. Osiris St. Brown was called for a chop block, costing Stanford 15 yards and seriously impairing the momentum. Two runs and an incompletion later and the Cardinal had to punt on 4th and 12 from their 33.

Stanford’s defense, meanwhile, continued to smother the gun and pistol stretch runs which the Ducks are known for. However, getting off the field on third downs remained a major problem. On two consecutive third-and-longs the Cardinal allowed the Ducks to convert. This led to an eventual score.

On the next possession the Cardinal found momentum as halftime approached. But on the eighth play of the drive at the Oregon 39 yard line, quarterback K.J. Costello was sacked. And after the original play was ruled a fumble returned for a TD, upon official review it was ruled Costello’s knee and elbow were down. The sack counted but the scoop and score did not.

With the offense stifled by Oregon’s defense, the Ducks had another shot. Herbert threw for gains of 24 yards, 16 yards, and 16 yards. The final was a TD pass to tight end Jacob Breeland on a back shoulder throw and catch to open up the lead. 14-3 Ducks.

2nd Half

Heading into the second half the Cardinal had hope. Their first drive showed they could play against Oregon’s stout defense and a 14-3 score was not insurmountable.

But after stopping the Ducks’ offense on their first drive of the second half, Stanford started the third quarter moving backwards.One false start, one delay of game penalty, a completion for 0 yards, a sack of 8 yards, and a 6 yard run. All preceded an opening drive punt for the Cardinal.

The Ducks, believing in either their defense or Stanford’s offensive futility — or a combination of the two — were content to continue running the clock. Stanford had 181 yards of total offense with no touchdowns heading into the 4th quarter. Scarlett, the lone offensive bright spot, had 91 yards on 17 carries. Only Austin Jones and St. Brown had more than 20 yards of receptions for the Cardinal.

This offensive futility was highlighted by a Costello interception that led to Oregon’s third TD of the game. After Oregon safety Jevon Holland intercepted Costello, Herbert marched the Ducks down the field. He connected with Breeland once again for a 24-yard TD, the second of Breeland’s day and 172nd of Herbert’s career.

Now down 21-3, Stanford needed something to get any momentum back.

Moving the offense down the field, Costello had his biggest play of the game on a 25 yard pass to M. Wilson. After Scarlett added 6 yards on a run, Costello once again hit Wilson for 14 yards on another slant, bringing the Cardinals into the redone for just the second time of the afternoon. An incompletion into the end zone was followed by a loss of three on a screen. Costello was then sacked on 3rd and 13 by Lamar Winston Jr., forcing a field goal attempt. Fortunately for Stanford, kicker Jeff Toner connected. With time bleeding away, Stanford was down 21-6.

Needing to score quickly and get the ball back, Stanford attempted an onside kick. They did not convert, and saw Oregon drive 41 yards on 7 plays. This put the Ducks in field goal range. Fortunately for the Cardinal, Oregon missed. With 5:35 seconds left in the game the Cardinal took possession at their 20 yard line down 21-6.

But after starting out with a nice pass on first down for a first down, the Cardinal offense failed to convert a fourth down, giving the Ducks the ball and the opportunity to run more off the clock. And while they did punt to Stanford, Costello and Stanford had no time. He was sacked for the last play of the game, an appropriate ending for the way the game played throughout.

Oregon vs. Stanford 2019 Final Thoughts

Costello finished the game 16/30 for 120 yards 0TDS and 1 INT. Scarlett carried the ball 19 times for 97 yards and 0 TDs. Stanford’s leading receiver was Michael Wilson with 61 yards on 5 catches. The Cardinal are in desperate need of offense and help doesn’t appear to be on the way.

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13: Apple Cup, Civil War, Territorial Cup, Rose Bowl

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13

There is so much parity in Pac-12 that it is a tough undertaking to rank the teams outside of #1 Washington State. Washington lost to Oregon and Cal who lost to Arizona who lost to UCLA who lost to Arizona State who lost to Colorado, who lost to Oregon State who lost to USC who lost Stanford, who lost to Utah who lost to Washington. Teams 2-10 have switched up a lot this season and are pretty fluid from week to week. The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13 is based on four things: quality wins, schedule played, dominance, and how teams are playing now. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Colorado (5-6) 

(L) 7-30 Utah

Not only has Colorado lost six straight games since starting 5-0. The Buffaloes have scored a grand total of 14 points in the last two weeks! The team isn’t playing as hard and their intensity is gone. It is obvious that the team sees the writing on the wall. Mike MacIntyre likely won’t be retained as the head coach for next season. He deserves credit for bringing stability to a program that was in total dysfunction. However, after six seasons and only one of those with more than five wins, it is hard to advocate for him. The Buffaloes will try to get bowl eligible this weekend at Cal.

11. Oregon State (2-9)

(L) 23-42 Washington

Everyone knew there would be no upset against Washington, but things are looking up for the Beavers. While their defense still can’t stop anyone ever their offense is continuing to show promise for the future. Jonathan Smith can at least take solace in the fact that multiple times this season the Beavers were not the worst team in the Pac-12.

10. Arizona (5-6)

(L) 28-69 Washington State

The Arizona defense returned back to form against Washington State. They allowed Wazzu quarterback Gardner Minshew to have a career day with 473 passing yards and seven touchdowns. The Wildcats defense had been poor all season against the pass and run despite back to back solid performances against Oregon and Colorado. Khalil Tate was one of the few bright spots this week. He finished with 319 total yards and four passing touchdowns. It seemed the freezing temperatures in Pullman took a toll on the warm-blooded Wildcats as they fumbled the ball six times. Coach Kevin Sumlin has to get his team back firing on all cylinders if he hopes to make a bowl game year one.

9. USC (5-6)

(L) 27-34 UCLA

The doomsday scenario has happened for USC. They do not have a school President, the athletic director Lynn Swann will likely be leaving soon, the boosters, fans, and alumni are demanding Clay Helton be fired, and they lost to a 2-8 UCLA team. The game against UCLA looked like it was going in Helton’s favor until a pair of horrendous second-half interceptions by quarterback JT Daniels sealed the Trojans fate. USC allowed UCLA running back Joshua Kelley to rush for 289 yards. So, I have no idea how they are going to compete against Notre Dame this week. If Helton can upset the Fighting Irish and knock them out of the College Football Playoff, he just might be able to save his job.

8. UCLA (3-8) 

(W) 34-27 USC

It is all smiles for the “boys in blue”. I actually have never heard anyone other than Maurice Jones-Drew call them that, but whatever. They beat USC after starting off the season 2-8. Chip Kelly has started 20 freshmen this season. Their start was slow, but have improved more than any other Pac-12 team from the beginning of the season until now. Their rushing offense and pass defense have steadily improved throughout the season. The future is extremely bright for the Bruins. I believe Chip Kelly will have UCLA in the College Football Playoff discussion in two more years.

7. Arizona State (6-5)

(L) 29-31 Oregon

If I told ASU fans that they would hire Herm Edwards (who hasn’t coached in forever), and have a chance to finish 7-5 year one they would have been happy. It will only take a win against their rival Arizona to make that a reality. The Sun Devils had to feel like they let a game slip away against Oregon. After a slow start, their defense held the Ducks to only a field goal in the second half. They picked off Justin Herbert twice and put up 16 points as well. If ASU can hold Khalil Tate in check this weekend, their bowl game destination will improve.

6. Cal (6-4)

Postponed vs Stanford (Dec. 1)

Cal is last in the Pac-12 in scoring offense (22.7 ppg). Ordinarily, that would be a huge impediment to winning games. But the Cal defense is only giving up 21.1 ppg. If they can get two wins to finish the season 8-4 coach I am positive you will start to hear Justin Wilcox’s name floated around for other head coaching jobs.

5. Oregon (7-4)

(W) 31-29 Arizona State

The good news is Ducks offense showed signs of life against Arizona State. The bad news is that it was only for one half of football. The Ducks offense scored 28 points in the first half. But only managed three more points and under a hundred yards of total offense in the second half. If the Ducks finish off the Beavers in Corvallis they will finish the regular season 8-4. It will be a could games less than I predicted preseason, but the future still appears bright. The biggest question for the Ducks is will their stars return for their senior seasons Herbert, Mitchell, Dye) . If they do, the Ducks will be in the preseason national championship conversation.

4. Stanford (6-4)

Postponed vs Cal (Dec. 1)

There has been nothing “Stanford-like” about this season. They still need two more wins just to tie David Shaw’s worst record at Stanford. UCLA and Cal won’t be pushovers the next two weeks. The Cardinal will need to get refocused after their game got postponed due to the California fires.

3. Utah (8-3)

(W) 30-7 Colorado

Everyone thought the Utes were done competing for the Pac-12 South crown when they lost their top two offensive playmakers, Tyler Huntley, and Zach Moss. Kyle Whittingham’s team had no intention of packing it in. They have had decisive victories against Oregon and Colorado since then. No matter what happens this week against BYU this week, Utah will still play the winner of the Washington vs. Washington State game in the Pac-12 Championship game. The conference needs Utah to dominate BYU and Washington State to beat Washington. It would set up at top 15 matchup in the championship game. The Utes will have an opportunity to make it to their first Rose Bowl appearance.

2. Washington (8-3)

(W) 42-23 Oregon State

The Huskies had been battling injuries all season, but are finally getting healthy. Myles Gaskin returned to the lineup last week and rushed for over 130 yards in both games. Washington’s offense came back to life and the look like a team that can win the Apple Cup. It will be interesting to see how the #2 defense holds up against the #1 offense in the Pac-12. A potential berth in the Rose Bowl will come down to Jake Browning’s ability to make throws and be special. Washington’s preseason hopes of playing for a national championship are gone, but there is still plenty on the line this week.

1. Washington State (10-1)

(W) 69-28 Arizona

DOMINATION. The Cougars whipped Arizona at every part of the game. Mike Leach’s team had 55 points at halftime. If he were Steve Spurrier in his Florida days he may have just done it. This was one of the statement games Washington State needed to send a message to the College Football Playoff committee that they deserve real consideration for the top four.

Now if they can survive the Apple Cup against Washington on a short week, and handly beat Utah in the Pac-12 championship, the Cougars just may get a berth in the playoffs. There feels like there is something magical about this squad. If they get in the playoffs, everybody better watch out!

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via- Sports Illustrated

Rose Bowl– Ohio State vs. Washington State

Holiday– Iowa vs. Washington

Sun– Syracuse vs. Cal

Alamo– Iowa State vs. Utah

Red Box– Indiana vs. Oregon

Cheez-It– Army vs. Arizona State

Las Vegas– Utah State vs. Stanford

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games

Pac-12 Football Week 7

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games is literally everything you need to know about Pac-12 football compiled in one spot. I have included the schedule, standings, power rankings, and most important offensive and defensive stats. Next week it will be even more aesthetically pleasing.

Schedule

There are two very important games in the Pac-12 this week. Both Washington vs. Oregon and Colorado vs USC could have an impact on the College Football Playoffs. If Colorado can remain undefeated and Oregon or Washington have one loss until the Pac-12 Championship game, the winner could earn a seat in the top four.

Bye – Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State

Pac-12 Standings Week 7

Washington, Washington State, and Stanford all control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North. If they win all the rest of their games, they will win the division. Oregon needs to win the rest of their games and have Stanford lose one more conference game.

 

NORTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Washington 3-0 5-1 175 82 2-0 2-1 Won 5
Washington State 2-1 5-1 25` 143 3-0 1-1 Won 2
Stanford 2-1 4-2 154 132 3-1 1-3 Lost 2
Oregon 1-1 4-1 228 122 3-1 1-0 Won 1
California 0-2 3-2 131 124 2-1 1-1 Lost 2
Oregon State 0-3 1-5 189  282 1-1 0-3 Lost 3

Colorado and USC are the only teams that control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South.

SOUTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Colorado 2-0 5-0 189 92 3-0 2-0 Won 5
USC 2-1 3-2 123 131 2-0 1-2 Won 2
Arizona 2-1 3-3 182 159 1-2 1-1 Won 1
Utah 1-2 3-2 129 86 1-1 2-1 Won 1
Arizona State 1-2 3-3 179  127 3-0 0-3 Lost 1
UCLA

USA Today Pac-12 Bowl Projections

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl—Washington vs Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl—Stanford vs Michigan

San Francisco Bowl—Washington State vs Nevada

Sun Bowl—Arizona State vs Florida State

Alamo Bowl—Colorado vs Texas

Cheez-It Bowl—Utah vs Iowa State

First Responders Bowl—Cal vs Wake Forest

Las Vegas Bowl—USC vs San Diego State

Unafraid Show Pac-12 Power Ranking

  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. Colorado
  4. USC
  5. Washington State
  6. Utah
  7. Stanford
  8. Arizona State
  9. Arizona
  10. Cal
  11. UCLA
  12. Oregon State

See full rankings

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Offensive Stats

 

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Defensive Stats