The chaos of awards season has only just begun. This past week, both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released its nominations, which means it’s one step closer to the Oscars in February. The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time In Hollywood all took giant steps towards Oscar glory while Little Women, Uncut Gems, and The Farewell have a lot of campaigning left to do. Here are the biggest Oscar takeaways from these nominations.
Four (Maybe Five) Movies Can Best Picture
While the field of Best Picture nominees slowly narrows, the frontrunners are clear. As of 12/13, there are four films that can win Best Picture: The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. These four films are towards the top of every expert’s ranking on GoldDerby. The only film that could make it a five-way race is 1917, which hits theaters on Christmas Day. The Golden Globes will announce their Best Picture winners in early January, but the most important show for films looking to win Best Picture at the Oscars is the Producers Guild Awards (PGA). 21 of the 31 winners for Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the PGA Awards have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Win at the PGA Awards and you become the frontrunner.
Robert De Niro And Adam Sandler Are In Trouble
Best Actor is one of the most crowded races of the season. There are 10-15 performances that have legitimate cases for a Best Acting nomination. Two of the most notable names that are on the outside looking in are Robert De Niro for The Irishman and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems. Both De Niro and Sandler failed to receive a best acting nomination at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. This is less than ideal for their Oscar chances. De Niro has a better chance to crack into the field because of his previous Oscar wins, but Sandler is in serious trouble despite winning Best Actor from the National Board of Review. That being said, not all hope is lost. Bradley Cooper received a best acting nomination for American Sniper despite being shut out from the Globes and SAGs. The precedent is there, but the difficulty remains.
Can Anyone Beat Renée Zellweger or Laura Dern?
By the time the Oscars air on February 9, Renée Zellweger and Laura Dern will be experts at acceptance speeches. Both Zellweger and Dern are huge frontrunners for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively. The Academy loves transformations and honoring “Old Hollywood” so Zellweger portraying Judy Garland is like using L + Down, R + C-Right, R + C-Up, L + Right, L + C-Down, R + C-Up, L + Right, R + Down, L + Left, L + R + C-Right for invincibility in N64’s Goldeneye. Barring an unexpected nomination, Dern’s only competition is Jennifer Lopez, who was fantastic in Hustlers. In any other year, Lopez would be the favorite, but Dern’s on fire with an Emmy win and Golden Globe win since 2017. It’s her time to win the Oscar.
No Love For Little Women
This is my biggest surprise of awards season. Little Women has all the components for an awards season movie: Established filmmaker (Greta Gerwig), star-studded cast (Saoirse Ronan, Florence Pugh, Emma Watson, Eliza Scanlen, Timothée Chalamet, Laura Dern, and MERYL STREEP), and a favorable release date (Christmas Day). Little Women checks all of the boxes and yet the film received two Golden Globes nominations and zero SAG nominations. It makes no sense. After nine Critics’ Choice Award nominations, Little Women has the ability to make a late-push for the Oscars, which is what I believe will happen. Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Score are all possibilities.
Check back in January for Oscar nomination predictions. In the meantime, go see Parasite.
Follow me on Twitter for more analysis.
