Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8: Bowl Games and CFB Playoffs Up For Grabs

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

The Pac-12 conference had another strong performance on the national scene. Washington and Oregon lived up to all the hype, and the entire country got to see two of the nations best teams. Well, sort of… The game was on ESPN2 in the south.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. Oregon State (1-5)

Oregon State comes off a BYE and plays Cal in Corvallis. The Beavers look to get their first Pac-12 conference win since November of 2016. Their offense has not been the problem this season. They are #1 in the Pac-12 in rushing at 211.8 yards per game, and #3 in total offense with 453.7 ypg. Oregon State’s defense has consistently undone all the great work their offense has done. They are dead last in the conference in scoring defense, rushing defense, pass defense, and total defense.

I am not sure how you win a game with those kinds of stats. Hopefully, head coach Jonathan Smith’s defense has made some adjustments over the BYE week.

11. Cal (3-3)

After the first three weeks of the season, Cal was looking like a team that could end up in a bowl game. After dropping three straight games against Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA, their bowl game chances look bleak. The Golden Bears defense was highly ranked and appeared to be the strength of their team through their first three games. Last week’s 37-7 loss to winless UCLA has to be concerning for head coach Justin Wilcox.  They gave up 37 points to the worst offense in the Pac-12. This week Cal has to try and stop Oregon State’s #1 rushing offense in the Pac-12.

Cal’s offense has to step it up. They rank #11 in the Pac-12 in both scoring offense (23.0 ppg), and passing offense (214.5).

10. Arizona (3-4)

Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate did not finish last week’s game against Utah, and head coach Kevin Sumlin said he will not play Saturday at UCLA. Rhett Rodriguez, son for former Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez, will get the start. Rodriguez should give Arizona a boost in their passing efficiency but is nowhere near the dynamic athlete running the ball that Tate is.

The Wildcats have a 3-4 record because they are statistically middle of the road Pac-12 offense and bottom third defense. This game against UCLA will be a pivotal game in deciding whether Arizona gets a bowl game.

9. UCLA (1-5) 

Bruins are relieved to know their team will not go defeated this year (0-12). Chip Kelly found a way to get his team which ranks last in the conference in points per game to score 37 points against Cal. UCLA has a chance to get their second win in a row against a struggling Arizona team. The game seems to be slowing down for true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He looks more comfortable passing the ball and continues to show flashes that he can be a special player.

The last two games have catapulted UCLA from the worst rushing offense in the Pac-12 at under 100 yards per game to 9th. Their defensive improvement has been a pleasant surprise. Bruins held Washington in check and shut Cal down in their last two games. Can they put together three straight solid defense games?

8. Arizona State (3-3)

The most intriguing team in the PAC-12 this season has been Arizona State. I am still not sure what to make of Herm Edwards’ team. Are they more the team that beat Michigan State or are they the team that lost to San Diego State? ASU comes off of a bye week and gets a huge test with Stanford coming in town. Manny Wilkins and their offensive coordinator have to find a way to get N’keal Harry the football more.

7. Stanford (4-2)

I am absolutely sure that David Shaw and the smart guys at Stanford did a lot of analytics number crunching over their BYE week. The “intellectual brutality” offense we are familiar with seeing has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are typically one of the top-rated rushing offenses in the country and the Pac-12. However, injuries to Bryce Love and poor offensive line play have their offense only managing 85.7 rushing yards per game. Their inability to run the football keeps them in 3rd and long situations which have translated to a Pac-12 worst 32.9% 3rd down conversion rate.

Stanford must rebound after ugly losses to Notre Dame and Utah. However, they still control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North but must win out.

6. Colorado (5-1) 

People tried to convince me that Colorado was a real threat to win the Pac-12 after starting 5-0. The Buffaloes suffered a bunch of injuries in the USC game, including their mid-season All American wide receiver Laviska Shenault. But, they weren’t winning that game if everybody had remained healthy. Statistically, Colorado is top four in the Pac-12 in scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency, opponent first downs, and a whole bunch of other categories. The reality is their opponents have a combined record of 12-25.

The Buffaloes travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies on Saturday. A win would go a long way to ensuring Mike McIntyre is the coach next season.

5. Utah (4-2)

I could not believe my eyes. Utah scored 40 points in consecutive games. It appears Kyle Whittingham’s team has turned a corner offensively. Tyler Huntley is being efficient passing the ball, and Zach Moss is 3rd in the Pac-12 in rushing with 102 yards per game. Granted, they played a beat up Stanford team and a defensive disaster in Arizona. The Utes defense is for real. They lead the conference in opponent first downs, scoring defense, and total defense.

The Utes get a huge home test against USC this weekend. If they win, they will have a shot to earn their first Pac-12 South crown.

4. USC (4-2)

Clay Helton got a much-needed win against Colorado. True freshman quarterback JT Daniels did not start sharp but ultimately finished with 283 passing yards with three touchdowns. The Trojans will need to improve their -6 turnover margin on the season if they hope to keep the lead in the Pac-12 South.

USC lost their best pass rusher Porter Gustin for the season. If the Trojans can get past the next two weeks against Utah and Arizona State, their schedule appears to get a little lighter with Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA.

3. Washington State (5-1)

We will find out what Gardner Minshew and Washington State are made out of as the Oregon Ducks roll into Pullman this weekend. The Cougars boast the Pac-12’s best passing offense (413.7 ypg), and 2nd best defense in terms of yards allowed per game (313.7). Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense is very capable of exploiting the Oregon secondary that ranks 10th in the conference in defensive pass efficiency.

2. Washington (5-2)

The Huskies are a top tier football team. They were a missed 37 yard FG away from beating Oregon for the 3rd straight year. Now, Washington looks to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss against their bitter rival Oregon. Teams are 0-5 on the season after playing a physical game against the Ducks. Chris Peterson is a great coach and should have his team up for the task against Colorado. Their defense continues to show up and be tough. The Huskies offense must improve their explosiveness. The lack of big plays seems the difference between the 2017 and 2018 Huskies teams.

There is still a chance the Huskies can win the Pac-12 and play in either the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.

1. Oregon (5-1)

The Ducks have earned the #1 spot in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 8. They gutted out a win against a very good Washington team. Oregon suffered a major injury in the against Washington. Their true freshman left tackle Penei Sewell is scheduled to miss significant time with a leg injury.

Justin Herbert continues to lead the conference in passing efficiency (171.2). The Ducks offense seems unstoppable at this point, but their defense will get a huge test this weekend at Washington State. We saw the Ducks respond well after a tough loss to Stanford. How will they handle the success of a big win?

Oregon has positioned themselves to potentially earn a spot in the college football playoffs.

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7: Bad Blood and Razor Thin Margins

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here. Respect is earned, not given.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. Oregon State (1-5)

(L) Washington State 37-56

I spent a lot of time deciding on #11-12 in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 7. How do you choose between a winless team who has played a solid schedule (UCLA) and a team that has only beaten Southern Utah (OSU)? Jermar Jefferson is the best thing the Beavers have going. The freshman has rushed for nearly 900 yards and 12 touchdowns through six games this season. The future for Oregon State is brighter than the present.

11. UCLA (0-5) 

(L) Washington 24-31

If there were moral victories in sports, UCLA would have one for how they played against Washington. The Bruins had multiple opportunities to tie the game in the 4th quarter, but could not capitalize. Dorian Thompson-Robinson made some really good throws and showed flashes of future greatness. Another bright spot was UCLA’s ability to run the football at will against a typically stout Washington defense.

I 100% believe that the Bruins would beat the Beavers if they played this season. They have a chance to get their first win against Cal this weekend.

10. Cal (3-2)

(L) Arizona 17-24

If Brandon McIlwain can stop throwing the ball to the other team Cal will win some Pac-12 games. He looks to be Khalil Tate 2.0; a dynamic athlete at quarterback, but also has solid passing skills. If Justin Wilcox can get his young quarterback to take care of the football a bowl game is in their future. The Golden Bears defense has remained solid even into Pac-12 play. The Bruins head to Cal this week, which should be a very “winnable” game for both teams.

9. Arizona (3-3)

(W) Cal 24-17

Until Khalil Tate is fully healthy and can run the football, Arizona is not a real threat to the upper class of the Pac-12. The Wildcats need his legs to be as much of a threat as his arm. Last year Khalil Tate rushed for over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. This year, Tate only has 110 rushing yards through 6 games. A Pac-12 South title is still in reach for Arizona. Utah comes to Tucson Friday for what is essentially a must-win for the Wildcats.

8. Arizona State (3-3)

(L) Colorado 21-28

Arizona State is sitting at a 3-3 record. It doesn’t feel like they are overachieving or underachieving. They seem to be in a perfect spot when measured against preseason expectations. They are struggling to get off the field defensively. The Sun Devils allow the most first downs per possession in the Pac-12. Also, Herm Edwards has to find a way to get his team to close out games. All three of their losses have come by seven points.

7. Stanford (4-2)

(L) Utah 21-40

How the mighty have fallen. Stanford was king of the Pac-12 Power Rankings for the first five weeks of the season. I’m not sure what is going on, but the “intellectual brutality”we had grown accustomed to has been conspicuously absent since the Oregon game. A BYE in week seven should allow the Cardinal ample opportunity to recalibrate and refocus. They must be perfect down the stretch if they want to win the Pac-12 North title.

6. Utah (3-2)

(W) Stanford 40-21

How on earth did Utah score 40 points on Stanford? Utah had not scored more than 24 points against FBS competition this season. The Utes offense is still underwhelming, but their defense did a great job of forcing four turnovers, which led to a lot of scoring opportunities. We will see if Utah can repeat their dynamic offensive and defensive performance this week against Arizona.

5. Washington State (5-1)

(W) Oregon State 56-37

There is no team that I am happier about their success than the Cougars. It would have been easy for them to mail the season in after Tyler Hilinski’s suicide. But, they have come out and fought hard and won games. Gardner Minshew has been so impressive at quarterback that he has drawn the eye of NFL scouts. He may have to put his coaching dreams on hold for NFL paychecks.  They get a much-deserved BYE this week. Mike Leach knows the rest of the schedule will be tough as they have Stanford, Oregon, and Washington still on the schedule.

4. USC (3-2)

BYE

This week is the most important game of the season for USC. If they beat Colorado, the team has a shot to rekindle the energy and excitement of their 2016 Rose Bowl season. If they lose to Colorado, the Clay Helton boo-birds will be out in full force.

3. Colorado (5-0)

(W) Arizona State 28-21

We all keep waiting for Cinderella’s glass slipper to fall off, but the Buffaloes refuse to let it go! Steven Montez and crew keep putting up solid offensive performances. They rank third in the conference in percentage of possessions that end in touchdowns (36.4%). And their defense is one of the stingiest in the Pac-12. If you haven’t seen the Buffaloes electric wide receiver Laviska Shenault, don’t worry, you will see a ton of him Saturday versus USC.

2. Oregon (4-1)

BYE

The Ducks got a week off and who knows what they will have up their sleeves for Huskies week. Revenge has been on Oregon’s mind since being embarrassed in 2016 by Jake Browning and the Huskies at Autzen Stadium. This game is the most bitter rivalry in the conference besides UCLA vs. USC. The loser will be the subject of ridicule for an entire year.

After watching Washington play UCLA last week, we could have a new #1 team in the Pac-12 Power Rankings after the game. Huck the Fuskies!

1. Washington (5-1)

(W) UCLA 31-24

Washington continues to win football games. I am extremely concerned about how this team faired against UCLA. The Huskies may have looked past UCLA to next week’s date at Oregon. However, their usually very stout defense was porous against the Bruins. Jake Browning’s steady play at quarterback has made Washington tough to beat. He rarely makes mistakes, and give his team a chance to win every game, but won’t be a superhero. Browning is the Alex Smith of college quarterbacks.

It is Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks this weekend. The winner of this game will have the inside track if the Pac-12 gets a spot in the College Football Playoffs.

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6: Contenders and Pretenders Reveal Themselves

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6:

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here. Respect is not given, it is earned.

Take a peek at last week’s rankings here.

12. UCLA (0-4) 

(L) Colorado 16-38

I believed UCLA had a shot to beat Colorado coming off their bye week. The Bruins put up a fight for the first half, but then it all went left after halftime. Their defense appeared to either tire out or lose mental focus in the second half. The schedule only gets rougher for Chip Kelly’s team for the rest of the season. I am not sure where this team finds a win. They can’t go 0-12 right?

11. Oregon State (1-4)

(L) 24-52 Arizona State

There are two stats that give you a lot of insight into the 2018 Beavers. Oregon State has allowed their opponent’s explosion plays of 30 yards or more 14 times in their first five games, which is worst in the Pac-12. They are also getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. Both of those stats mean there are only two things wrong with the Beavers: their offense, and their defense.

1o. Arizona (2-3)

(L) USC 20-24

Arizona has been doing a decent job of scoring since their disastrous first two games against BYU and Houston. Their biggest problem this season has been their defense. The Wildcats are only forcing turnovers on 5.9% of their opponent’s drives. And are only getting a sack on every 24 pass attempts. The good news for Arizona is that none of the teams in the South are particularly tough, and they still have a chance to win the division. However, the likelyhood seems low at this point.

9. Utah (2-2)

(L) Washington State 24-28

The Utes had their highest scoring game of the season last week (against a team not named Weber State). Their defense continuously shows up, but their offense fails to score enough points. It is always tough to win a lot of college football games when you only score 22 points per game. It is time to accept that the Utes are the same team they have been for the last 3-4 years.

8. Arizona State (3-2)

(W) Oregon State 52-24

The Sun Devils beat Oregon State soundly, as they were supposed to do. I’m still unsure what to make of a team that beats a pretty highly regarded Michigan State team only to turn around and lose the next week to San Diego State. Over the next month, Arizona State has Colorado, Stanford, and USC on the schedule. They could either go 3-0 or 0-3. This team is the best in the conference in turnover margin at +5. So, that should help.

7. Washington State (4-1)

(W) Utah 28-24

The Cougars offense is impressive. My heart says Wazzu looks like a top five Pac-12 team, but my head remembers their best win is against Utah. The Cougars only give up one sack every 58 pass attempts. The next closest team is Arizona State with one sack for every 35 attempts. If Washington State can continue to keep Gardener Minshew upright, they could knock off one of the North division heavy hitters.

6. USC (3-2)

(W) Arizona 24-20

The only reason USC has three wins is that they have the more talent than the teams they played. They are doing everything that typically results in losses. The Trojans are 11th in the Pac-12 in turnover margin, average under one touchdown pass per game, and give up the second most explosive plays of 30 yards to opponents. A lot of people are high on the Trojans winning the Pac-12 South; I am not. The team is talented enough to finish the season 10-2 but are more likely to finish 8-4.

5. Cal (3-1)

(L) Oregon 24-42

The Golden Bears have to figure out their quarterback situation. It is clear their offense is more explosive with Brandon McIllwain under center, but Chase Garbers is a better passer. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but their offense has to step up. Cal had a good start to the season, but the road only gets tougher from here. They still have games against Washington, Washington State, and Stanford left on the schedule. Cal is well coached, but they are short on talent to be highly competitive in the north division.

4. Colorado (4-0)

(W) UCLA 38-14

Colorado has earned their seat in the #4 slot of the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6. However, I do not trust they are good enough to run the gauntlet ahead of them. Through four games, their offensive and defensive stats have been very impressive. But all four of their wins are against sub top 50 college football teams. If they can get past Arizona State this weekend, I will trust them more.

3. Stanford (4-1)

(L) Notre Dame 17-38

The Stanford offense and defense looked exactly the same against Notre Dame as it did against Oregon through three quarters. They were dominated. I am truly questioning my prediction of Stanford winning the conference. Bryce Love is injured and KJ Costello looked rather average against a good Notre Dame team. The Cardinal are trending in the wrong direction. But I realize David Shaw is good for 10+ wins per year, so he should get things turned around.

2. Oregon (4-1)

(W) Cal 42-24

Oregon bounced back from one of the most heart-breaking losses in recent memory. Teams often let a loss like that affect the next game, but the Ducks didn’t. This team is physical and talented. There is an outside chance this team could pull and Alabama and make the College Football Playoffs without winning the conference. Oregon is the best team in the conference offensively, and one of the best defensively as well. All eyes will be on their matchup against Washington in two weeks.

1. Washington (4-1)

(W) BYU 35-7

The Huskies have earned the top spot in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 6. Jake Browning had another solid week against BYU. Washington’s defense seems to be getting more and more stingy each week. They are best in the conference against the pass and have only allowed two explosive plays over 30 yards through five games. Oregon and Stanford are the only two teams that actually stand in the way of the Huskies winning the conference.

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