Believe it or not, awards season is set to begin Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Just like the Emmys, the Globes are going virtual. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the ceremony for a fourth time, which means Tom Hanks won’t have to become a meme after a Ricky Gervais joke.
The Golden Globes are very divisive because of the mystery surrounding the Hollywood Foreign Press. A few days ago, the L.A. Times published a controversial report about the HFPA’s ethics and lack of diversity. Who are they? Your guess is as good as mine.
Despite the controversy, the Golden Globes is my favorite award show to watch. In a normal year, everyone gets drunks and celebrates. That’s my kind of party. I’m still waiting for my invite to an after-party…
The Globes are difficult to predict because of the secretive voting body. However, there are some trends that serve as a forecast for the Oscars and Emmys.
Trends To Keep An Eye On
-Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture three times while the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy winner has won Best Picture twice. However, in that same timeframe, every Oscars’ Best Picture winner besides Parasite (ineligible; awful rule by the way) was nominated in either Best Motion Picture – Drama or Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical.
– At last year’s ceremony, the winners in Best Actor – Drama, Best Actress – Drama, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress won Oscars in the same categories.
– Win Best Director and you’re in the driver’s seat for the Oscar. Since 2013, five of the seven winners for Best Director at the Globes went on to win the same category at the Oscars. To all all the directors who weren’t nominated at the Globes, it’s almost impossible to win Best Director at the Oscars. Since 2000, the last director to the win the Oscar for Best Director without receiving a nomination at the Golden Globes was Roman Polanski in 2002 for The Pianist.
For television, it’s much harder to compare trends to a major awards show like the Emmys because of the submission timeline. The Oscars and Golden Globes (film) follow the calendar year. The Globes also follow the calendar year for television, but the Emmys are on their own schedule with a submission window that’s usually June to the last day in May of the next year. This is my biggest complaint. Make January to March awards season for both television and film.
– The Globes are famous for making a few big splashes per year, especially in the comedic categories. When I say splashes, I mean awarding winners from buzz-worthy shows you don’t think can win. Some of the decisions deserve praise while others leave you dumbfounded. In 2019, The Kominsky Method won Best Comedy and its star, Michael Douglas, won Best Actor. In 2017, Billy Bob Thornton won Best Actor in a Drama for Goliath. In 2016, Mozart in the Jungle won Best Comedy. This ceremony will feature Emily in Paris, which is up for Best Comedy. (I like Lily Collins. This isn’t a shot at you, Lily!)
Always remember this: When in doubt, chose star power. The Golden Globes loves to reward stars. I also love stars so I can’t say I blame them for this tactic!
Golden Globes – FILM
BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Nomadland
- Mank
- Promising Young Woman
- The Father
Who Should Win: I truly don’t know. I also haven’t seen The Father.
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL or COMEDY
- Hamilton
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Palm Springs
- Music
- The Prom
Who Should Win: Palm Springs
Who Will Win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
BEST ACTOR — DRAMA
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Who Should And Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
- James Corden, The Prom
- Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Who Should Win: Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL
- Kate Hudson, Music
- Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
- Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Who Should And Will Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago
- Bill Murray, On the Rocks
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Jared Leto, The Little Things
Who Should And Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Editor’s note on 2/28 at 6:30 PM: I originally had Leslie Odom Jr. winning in this category. However, I switched to Kaluuya because Odom Jr. will most likely be rewarded in Best Song and I don’t see him winning two in one night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Helena Zengel, News of the World
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Who Will Win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (I selfishly want Close to win an Oscar. Sue me.)
BEST DIRECTOR
- David Fincher, Mank
- Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- Regina King, One Night in Miami
Who Should And Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
BEST SCREENPLAY
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Promising Young Woman
- Mank
- The Father
- Nomadland
Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Hear My Voice” by Celeste & Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- “Fight for You” by D’Mile, H.E.R., & Tiara Thomas, Judas and the Black Messiah
- “Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
- “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, & Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
- “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Who Should Win: “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Who Will Win: “Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
- Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul
- Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
- James Newton Howard, News of the World
Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
Who Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- Minari
- La Llorona
- The Life Ahead
- Another Round
- Two of Us
Who Should And Will Win: Minari
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
- Over the Moon
- Onward
- The Croods: A New Age
Who Should And Will Win: Soul
Golden Globes – TELEVISION
BEST TELEVISION SERIES — DRAMA
- The Crown
- The Mandalorian
- Lovecraft Country
- Ratched
- Ozark
Who Should Win: The Mandalorian
Who Will Win: The Crown
BEST TELEVISION SERIES — MUSICAL or COMEDY
- Schitt’s Creek
- Ted Lasso
- Emily in Paris
- The Great
- The Flight Attendant
Who Should Win: Ted Lasso
Who Will Win: Schitt’s Creek
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
- The Queen’s Gambit
- Unorthodox
- The Undoing
- Normal People
- Small Axe
Who Should Win: Normal People
Who Will Win: The Queen’s Gambit
LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
- Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
- Josh O’Connor, The Crown
- Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
- Jason Bateman, Ozark
- Al Pacino, Hunters
Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Who Will Win: Al Pacino, Hunters
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
- Olivia Colman, The Crown
- Laura Linney, Ozark
- Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
- Emma Corrin, The Crown
- Sarah Paulson, Ratched
Who Should Win: Laura Linney, Ozark
Who Will Win: Emma Corrin, The Crown
LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY
- Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
- Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
- Ramy Youssef, Ramy
- Nicholas Hoult, The Great
- Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Who Should Win: Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Who Will Win: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY
- Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
- Elle Fanning, The Great
- Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
- Lily Collins, Emily in Paris
- Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist
Who Should Win: Elle Fanning, The Great
Who Will Win: Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
- Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
- Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
- Hugh Grant, The Undoing
- Bryan Cranston, Your Honor
- Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule
Who Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Your Honor
Who Will Win: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
- Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
- Shira Haas, Unorthodox
- Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
- Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
- Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People
Who Should And Will Win: Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM
- Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
- Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule
- John Boyega, Small Axe
- Donald Sutherland, The Undoing
- Jim Parsons, Hollywood
Who Should Win: John Boyega, Small Axe
Who Will Win: Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM
- Gillian Anderson, The Crown
- Julia Garner, Ozark
- Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
- Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
- Cynthia Nixon, Ratched
Who Should Win: Julia Garner, Ozark
Who Will Win: Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Who do you believe should win at the Golden Globes? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.