2021 Oscars Discussion, Vol. 6: Making Sense Of The Golden Globes

Judas and the black messiah

The first stop on the road to the Oscars happened last Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Which actors and films picked up crucial victories on the road to the Oscars?

How Do The Golden Globes Affect The Oscars?

The Golden Globes are so unpredictable that they’ve actually become predictable. What do I mean? Viewers now expect the Globes to do something so against the grain every year that it’s no surprise when it happens. Sometimes, it’s a good surprise like rewarding Andra Day for Best Actress in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Other times, a film like Music*, which was universally panned by critics, receives a nomination for Best Musical or Comedy.

*Kate Hudson, you were robbed of Oscars for your performances in Almost Famous and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.

Before we can determine if the Golden Globes might affect the Oscars, let’s go over the winners in each category.

  • Best Motion Picture – Drama: Nomadland
  • Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
  • Best Actor – Musical or Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 
  • Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
  • Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
  • Best Director: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Best Original Score: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross, Soul
  • Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • Best Foreign Film: Minari
  • Best Animated Feature: Soul

Take a long look at this list. Some of the winners should start practicing their acceptance speeches for the Oscars. Others should just enjoy this moment right now because it will take a miracle to win in late April. Joe Reid of Vulture wrote a great piece about the Globes and if it translates to Oscar success. Since 1991, out of the 404 winners in the film categories, only 201 went on to win the Oscar, which is just under 50%.

Some of these categories are easier to predict than others. Based on Sunday night’s winners, a few of these races seem over.

My Stone Cold Locks To Win Oscars

  • Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
  • Best Animated Feature: Soul

If you put a gun to my head and asked for the three Golden Globe winners to win Oscars, I’d pick Boseman, Kaluuya, and Soul. Boseman is not going to lose, and rightfully so. Pixar rarely loses Best Animated Film at the Oscars (10 wins in 13 tries) so Soul is going to win. You could argue Kaluuya is more of a wildcard, but the public’s reception to Judas and the Black Messiah has been strong so I see him riding this wave to the Oscars.

Safe Bets To Win

  • Best Director: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Best Original Score For Either Mank or Soul: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

A step below locks are the safe bets, which are the ones you would feel good about predicting. Zhao became the second woman ever to win the Golden Globe for Best Director and will most likely become the second female ever to win the directing Oscar. Nomadland has a lot of support, which bodes well for her chances in this category. At the Oscars, screenplay is divided into Best Adapted and Best Original. Sorkin will compete in Best Orginal Screenplay and will be a big favorite to win his second Oscar. Finally, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are competing against themselves as either Soul or Mank will win for Best Score.

On The Right Track

  • Best Picture: Nomadland

Nomadland ascended to the top of the Best Picture race with a win in Best Motion Picture – Drama. However, it’s no guarantee it will win Best Picture. Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win Best Picture only three times. I’m interested to see if The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Minari can gain ground on Nomadland with wins at either the Critics’ Choice Awards or SAG Awards.

Your Guess Is As Good As Mine

  • Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
  • Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 
  • Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
  • Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • Best Foreign Film: Minari

Out of these five winners, the easiest category to predict is Best International Film. Minari will not be eligible in this category at the Oscars. I just don’t know what film that will win. Then, there’s Best Original Song. Diane Warren has been nominated in this category 11 (!!!!) times and will most likely receive her 12th nomination for “Io sì (Seen).” Will she finally be rewarded with an Oscar? Maybe?

If you like upsets, the Golden Globes provided them in every female acting category, Day, Pike, and Foster were underdogs in their respective categories and all left Sunday night with some hardware. These wins throw a wrench in the plans of every Oscar prognosticator.

Forget the winner, predicting the nominees will be a tall task for both best actress and best supporting actress. In Best Actress, Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, and Carey Mulligan should receive the first three nominations. Before the Globes, Vanessa Kirby appeared to be on the fast track to a nomination. Now, I’m not so confident anymore. Between Day and Pike, I lean towards Day receiving the nomination, but Pike is well-respected in the film community. Could she also be nominated and take Kirby’s spot? My prediction: Kirby and Day receive nominations to round out the category.

Frankly, Best Supporting Actress is a clusterfuck. Foster’s win was way out of left field. This category is so competitive that I don’t think Foster will even be nominated for an Oscar. Only two women were nominated in this category at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and SAG Awards. Those women are Olivia Colman and Glenn Close.

Let’s assume Colman and Close are two of the five nominees. That leaves five women for three spots: Foster, Amanda Seyfried, Youn Yuh-jung, Helena Zengel, and Maria Bakalova. This category depends on Bakalova. Will the Academy take her performance in Borat 2 seriously? Hopefully, will because Bakalova stole the show from Cohen, which was no easy task. If I had a vote, Bakalova would be my winner. So if Bakalova gets nominated, that means there are two more spots. Mank received the most nominations at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards so Seyfried will probably receive a nomination for the best performance of her career. That leaves Zengel, Youn Yuh-jung, and Foster for the fifth and final spot. Because of her nomination at both the Globes and SAGs, Zengel is my pick for the fifth and final nomination.

TL;DR: To determine if a winner at the Golden Globes will also win at the Oscars, flip a coin.

Previous Discussions:

Out of all the winners at the Golden Globes, who will win an Oscar? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Should Win And Who Will Win?

Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Believe it or not, awards season is set to begin Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Just like the Emmys, the Globes are going virtual. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the ceremony for a fourth time, which means Tom Hanks won’t have to become a meme after a Ricky Gervais joke.

The Golden Globes are very divisive because of the mystery surrounding the Hollywood Foreign Press. A few days ago, the L.A. Times published a controversial report about the HFPA’s ethics and lack of diversity. Who are they? Your guess is as good as mine.

Despite the controversy, the Golden Globes is my favorite award show to watch. In a normal year, everyone gets drunks and celebrates. That’s my kind of party. I’m still waiting for my invite to an after-party…

The Globes are difficult to predict because of the secretive voting body. However, there are some trends that serve as a forecast for the Oscars and Emmys.

-Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture three times while the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy winner has won Best Picture twice. However, in that same timeframe, every Oscars’ Best Picture winner besides Parasite (ineligible; awful rule by the way) was nominated in either Best Motion Picture – Drama or Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical.

– At last year’s ceremony, the winners in Best Actor – Drama, Best Actress – Drama, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress won Oscars in the same categories.

– Win Best Director and you’re in the driver’s seat for the Oscar. Since 2013, five of the seven winners for Best Director at the Globes went on to win the same category at the Oscars. To all all the directors who weren’t nominated at the Globes, it’s almost impossible to win Best Director at the Oscars. Since 2000, the last director to the win the Oscar for Best Director without receiving a nomination at the Golden Globes was Roman Polanski in 2002 for The Pianist.

For television, it’s much harder to compare trends to a major awards show like the Emmys because of the submission timeline. The Oscars and Golden Globes (film) follow the calendar year. The Globes also follow the calendar year for television, but the Emmys are on their own schedule with a submission window that’s usually June to the last day in May of the next year. This is my biggest complaint. Make January to March awards season for both television and film.

– The Globes are famous for making a few big splashes per year, especially in the comedic categories. When I say splashes, I mean awarding winners from buzz-worthy shows you don’t think can win. Some of the decisions deserve praise while others leave you dumbfounded. In 2019, The Kominsky Method won Best Comedy and its star, Michael Douglas, won Best Actor. In 2017, Billy Bob Thornton won Best Actor in a Drama for Goliath. In 2016, Mozart in the Jungle won Best Comedy. This ceremony will feature Emily in Paris, which is up for Best Comedy. (I like Lily Collins. This isn’t a shot at you, Lily!)

Always remember this: When in doubt, chose star power. The Golden Globes loves to reward stars. I also love stars so I can’t say I blame them for this tactic!

Golden Globes – FILM

The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Nomadland
  • Mank
  • Promising Young Woman
  • The Father

Who Should Win: I truly don’t know. I also haven’t seen The Father.
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL or COMEDY

Who Should Win: Palm Springs
Who Will Win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ACTOR — DRAMA

  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal 
  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father 
  • Gary Oldman, Mank 
  • Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian 

Who Should And Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
  • Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
  • James Corden, The Prom
  • Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

Who Should Win: Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Kate Hudson, Music 
  • Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
  • Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 

Who Should And Will Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Jared Leto, The Little Things 

Who Should And Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Editor’s note on 2/28 at 6:30 PM: I originally had Leslie Odom Jr. winning in this category. However, I switched to Kaluuya because Odom Jr. will most likely be rewarded in Best Song and I don’t see him winning two in one night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
  • Olivia Colman, The Father
  • Helena Zengel, News of the World 
  • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
  • Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian 

Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Who Will Win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (I selfishly want Close to win an Oscar. Sue me.)

BEST DIRECTOR

  • David Fincher, Mank
  • Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
  • Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
  • Regina King, One Night in Miami

Who Should And Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST SCREENPLAY

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Mank
  • The Father
  • Nomadland

Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Hear My Voice” by Celeste & Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • “Fight for You” by D’Mile, H.E.R., & Tiara Thomas, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • “Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
  • “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, & Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Who Should Win: “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Who Will Win: “Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
  • Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul
  • Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
  • James Newton Howard, News of the World

Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
Who Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Minari
  • La Llorona 
  • The Life Ahead
  • Another Round
  • Two of Us 

Who Should And Will Win: Minari

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers
  • Over the Moon
  • Onward
  • The Croods: A New Age

Who Should And Will Win: Soul

Golden Globes – TELEVISION

Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen's Gambit / Netflix
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen’s Gambit / Credit: Netflix

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — DRAMA

  • The Crown
  • The Mandalorian
  • Lovecraft Country
  • Ratched
  • Ozark

Who Should Win: The Mandalorian
Who Will Win: The Crown

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — MUSICAL or COMEDY

  • Schitt’s Creek
  • Ted Lasso
  • Emily in Paris
  • The Great
  • The Flight Attendant

Who Should Win: Ted Lasso
Who Will Win: Schitt’s Creek

BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Who Should Win: Normal People
Who Will Win: The Queen’s Gambit

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
  • Josh O’Connor, The Crown
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 
  • Jason Bateman, Ozark 
  • Al Pacino, Hunters

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 
Who Will Win: Al Pacino, Hunters

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Olivia Colman, The Crown
  • Laura Linney, Ozark
  • Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
  • Emma Corrin, The Crown
  • Sarah Paulson, Ratched 

Who Should Win: Laura Linney, Ozark
Who Will Win: Emma Corrin, The Crown

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
  • Ramy Youssef, Ramy
  • Nicholas Hoult, The Great
  • Don Cheadle, Black Monday

Who Should Win: Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Who Will Win: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
  • Elle Fanning, The Great
  • Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
  • Lily Collins, Emily in Paris 
  • Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist

Who Should Win: Elle Fanning, The Great
Who Will Win: Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant

LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
  • Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
  • Hugh Grant, The Undoing
  • Bryan Cranston, Your Honor 
  • Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule

Who Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Your Honor 
Who Will Win: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
  • Shira Haas, Unorthodox
  • Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
  • Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
  • Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People

Who Should And Will Win: Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule 
  • John Boyega, Small Axe
  • Donald Sutherland, The Undoing 
  • Jim Parsons, Hollywood

Who Should Win: John Boyega, Small Axe
Who Will Win: Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Gillian Anderson, The Crown
  • Julia Garner, Ozark
  • Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
  • Cynthia Nixon, Ratched

Who Should Win: Julia Garner, Ozark
Who Will Win: Gillian Anderson, The Crown

Who do you believe should win at the Golden Globes? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

Oscars 2020: Best Picture Race Is Set For Takeoff

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The year is more than halfway over and the field for Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is hazy, to say the least. Most of the films that are drawing buzz have not premiered yet at major film festivals, which means their theatrical release date will be in the fall. There’s no such thing as a “sure thing,” but this year, in particular, has more questions than answers.

Where are all of the contenders in the first half of the year? If you’re looking for this year’s Get Out or Mad Max: Fury Road, which both hit theaters before June in their respective years, your search will come up short. That’s not to say there haven’t’ been any critically acclaimed films or box office success that will garner awards consideration. Us, Apollo 11, Toy Story 4*, and The Farewell have all been lauded by critics across the board. However, the likelihood that these films receive Best Picture nominations is slim.

*Toy Story 3 was the last animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Depending on how the back half of the year goes will determine if Toy Story 4 can sneak into the Best Picture race.

The lack of Best Picture buzz for the first half of the year is concerning, but not problematic. The majority of films looking to be in awards contention position their release dates between September and December/early January so they stay fresh in voters’ minds and can be seen at the box office while the awards are happening. In fact, the last film to win Best Picture that had its release date before July was The Hurt Locker, which had its release in late June 2009.

Although the first half of the year provided little hope, the future is still bright. The film community won’t have to wait until September to see a contender. In fact, the first film that will receive major Oscar buzz premieres on July, 26. That film is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

If you could draw up the perfect film to receive awards consideration, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be the blueprint. It includes huge movie stars like Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Leonardo DiCaprio, who is returning to the big screen for the first time since his Oscar-winning performance in The Revenant. The film involves a well-known and well-received director in Quentin Tarantino, who previously won two Academy Awards for Best Original Screenplay. Plus, the Academy loves films about Hollywood that capture the true essence of cinema, which is the very nature of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The film had its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, where Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian gave the film 5/5 stars and said it’s “entirely outrageous, disorientating, irresponsible, and also brilliant.”

Speaking of festivals, there are three major ones that typically serve as launching pads for the Best Picture race. They are the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF). All three festivals will occur over the course of a few weeks at the end of August through the middle of September. Last year’s Best Picture winner, Green Book, premiered at TIFF. In 2017, The Shape of Water premiered at Venice. In 2016, Moonlight premiered at Telluride. It’s no secret as to why films with awards’ aspirations premiere at these three major festivals. If a film has a strong premiere at one of the three festivals, it’s odds for entering the Best Picture conversation dramatically increase.

According to Variety, Joker with Joaquin Phoenix, Bradd Pitt’s space epic Ad Astra, Tom Harper’s The Aeronauts, Fernando Meirelles’ The Pope, and The Burnt Orange Heresy starring Mick Jagger are all rumored to be showing at Venice. Since 2014, at least one film has been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars that was shown at Venice so expect the same to happen this year. The lineups have not been announced for Telluride or Toronto, but it’s a guarantee that films from the festival will draw Best Picture hype.

Films that should also accumulate serious Best Picture conversations: Martin Scorsese’s star-studded The Irishman, Ford v. Ferrari starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale, the musical adaptation of Cats featuring Taylor Swift, Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Goldfinch starring Ansel Elgort, Ang’s Lee Gemini Man starring Will Smith, and Jay Roach’s Fair and Balanced about the former head of Fox News, Roger Ailes.

There’s bound to be at least a few films not previously mentioned that sneak up on the film community and join the Best Picture race. That being said, here are my best guesses for Best Picture nominees at the 2020 Oscars as of July 17.

Best Picture Predictions

  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Ad Astra
  • Cats
  • Fair and Balanced
  • Ford v. Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • Little Women
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Toy Story 4

Only time will tell as to which films receive nominations. However, with an abundance of films premiering these next five months, the Best Picture race is about to take off.