2021 Oscars Discussion, Vol. 6: Making Sense Of The Golden Globes

Judas and the black messiah

The first stop on the road to the Oscars happened last Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Which actors and films picked up crucial victories on the road to the Oscars?

How Do The Golden Globes Affect The Oscars?

The Golden Globes are so unpredictable that they’ve actually become predictable. What do I mean? Viewers now expect the Globes to do something so against the grain every year that it’s no surprise when it happens. Sometimes, it’s a good surprise like rewarding Andra Day for Best Actress in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Other times, a film like Music*, which was universally panned by critics, receives a nomination for Best Musical or Comedy.

*Kate Hudson, you were robbed of Oscars for your performances in Almost Famous and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.

Before we can determine if the Golden Globes might affect the Oscars, let’s go over the winners in each category.

  • Best Motion Picture – Drama: Nomadland
  • Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
  • Best Actor – Musical or Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 
  • Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
  • Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
  • Best Director: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Best Original Score: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross, Soul
  • Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • Best Foreign Film: Minari
  • Best Animated Feature: Soul

Take a long look at this list. Some of the winners should start practicing their acceptance speeches for the Oscars. Others should just enjoy this moment right now because it will take a miracle to win in late April. Joe Reid of Vulture wrote a great piece about the Globes and if it translates to Oscar success. Since 1991, out of the 404 winners in the film categories, only 201 went on to win the Oscar, which is just under 50%.

Some of these categories are easier to predict than others. Based on Sunday night’s winners, a few of these races seem over.

My Stone Cold Locks To Win Oscars

  • Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
  • Best Animated Feature: Soul

If you put a gun to my head and asked for the three Golden Globe winners to win Oscars, I’d pick Boseman, Kaluuya, and Soul. Boseman is not going to lose, and rightfully so. Pixar rarely loses Best Animated Film at the Oscars (10 wins in 13 tries) so Soul is going to win. You could argue Kaluuya is more of a wildcard, but the public’s reception to Judas and the Black Messiah has been strong so I see him riding this wave to the Oscars.

Safe Bets To Win

  • Best Director: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Best Original Score For Either Mank or Soul: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

A step below locks are the safe bets, which are the ones you would feel good about predicting. Zhao became the second woman ever to win the Golden Globe for Best Director and will most likely become the second female ever to win the directing Oscar. Nomadland has a lot of support, which bodes well for her chances in this category. At the Oscars, screenplay is divided into Best Adapted and Best Original. Sorkin will compete in Best Orginal Screenplay and will be a big favorite to win his second Oscar. Finally, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are competing against themselves as either Soul or Mank will win for Best Score.

On The Right Track

  • Best Picture: Nomadland

Nomadland ascended to the top of the Best Picture race with a win in Best Motion Picture – Drama. However, it’s no guarantee it will win Best Picture. Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win Best Picture only three times. I’m interested to see if The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Minari can gain ground on Nomadland with wins at either the Critics’ Choice Awards or SAG Awards.

Your Guess Is As Good As Mine

  • Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
  • Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 
  • Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
  • Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • Best Foreign Film: Minari

Out of these five winners, the easiest category to predict is Best International Film. Minari will not be eligible in this category at the Oscars. I just don’t know what film that will win. Then, there’s Best Original Song. Diane Warren has been nominated in this category 11 (!!!!) times and will most likely receive her 12th nomination for “Io sì (Seen).” Will she finally be rewarded with an Oscar? Maybe?

If you like upsets, the Golden Globes provided them in every female acting category, Day, Pike, and Foster were underdogs in their respective categories and all left Sunday night with some hardware. These wins throw a wrench in the plans of every Oscar prognosticator.

Forget the winner, predicting the nominees will be a tall task for both best actress and best supporting actress. In Best Actress, Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, and Carey Mulligan should receive the first three nominations. Before the Globes, Vanessa Kirby appeared to be on the fast track to a nomination. Now, I’m not so confident anymore. Between Day and Pike, I lean towards Day receiving the nomination, but Pike is well-respected in the film community. Could she also be nominated and take Kirby’s spot? My prediction: Kirby and Day receive nominations to round out the category.

Frankly, Best Supporting Actress is a clusterfuck. Foster’s win was way out of left field. This category is so competitive that I don’t think Foster will even be nominated for an Oscar. Only two women were nominated in this category at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and SAG Awards. Those women are Olivia Colman and Glenn Close.

Let’s assume Colman and Close are two of the five nominees. That leaves five women for three spots: Foster, Amanda Seyfried, Youn Yuh-jung, Helena Zengel, and Maria Bakalova. This category depends on Bakalova. Will the Academy take her performance in Borat 2 seriously? Hopefully, will because Bakalova stole the show from Cohen, which was no easy task. If I had a vote, Bakalova would be my winner. So if Bakalova gets nominated, that means there are two more spots. Mank received the most nominations at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards so Seyfried will probably receive a nomination for the best performance of her career. That leaves Zengel, Youn Yuh-jung, and Foster for the fifth and final spot. Because of her nomination at both the Globes and SAGs, Zengel is my pick for the fifth and final nomination.

TL;DR: To determine if a winner at the Golden Globes will also win at the Oscars, flip a coin.

Previous Discussions:

Out of all the winners at the Golden Globes, who will win an Oscar? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Should Win And Who Will Win?

Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Believe it or not, awards season is set to begin Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Just like the Emmys, the Globes are going virtual. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the ceremony for a fourth time, which means Tom Hanks won’t have to become a meme after a Ricky Gervais joke.

The Golden Globes are very divisive because of the mystery surrounding the Hollywood Foreign Press. A few days ago, the L.A. Times published a controversial report about the HFPA’s ethics and lack of diversity. Who are they? Your guess is as good as mine.

Despite the controversy, the Golden Globes is my favorite award show to watch. In a normal year, everyone gets drunks and celebrates. That’s my kind of party. I’m still waiting for my invite to an after-party…

The Globes are difficult to predict because of the secretive voting body. However, there are some trends that serve as a forecast for the Oscars and Emmys.

-Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture three times while the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy winner has won Best Picture twice. However, in that same timeframe, every Oscars’ Best Picture winner besides Parasite (ineligible; awful rule by the way) was nominated in either Best Motion Picture – Drama or Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical.

– At last year’s ceremony, the winners in Best Actor – Drama, Best Actress – Drama, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress won Oscars in the same categories.

– Win Best Director and you’re in the driver’s seat for the Oscar. Since 2013, five of the seven winners for Best Director at the Globes went on to win the same category at the Oscars. To all all the directors who weren’t nominated at the Globes, it’s almost impossible to win Best Director at the Oscars. Since 2000, the last director to the win the Oscar for Best Director without receiving a nomination at the Golden Globes was Roman Polanski in 2002 for The Pianist.

For television, it’s much harder to compare trends to a major awards show like the Emmys because of the submission timeline. The Oscars and Golden Globes (film) follow the calendar year. The Globes also follow the calendar year for television, but the Emmys are on their own schedule with a submission window that’s usually June to the last day in May of the next year. This is my biggest complaint. Make January to March awards season for both television and film.

– The Globes are famous for making a few big splashes per year, especially in the comedic categories. When I say splashes, I mean awarding winners from buzz-worthy shows you don’t think can win. Some of the decisions deserve praise while others leave you dumbfounded. In 2019, The Kominsky Method won Best Comedy and its star, Michael Douglas, won Best Actor. In 2017, Billy Bob Thornton won Best Actor in a Drama for Goliath. In 2016, Mozart in the Jungle won Best Comedy. This ceremony will feature Emily in Paris, which is up for Best Comedy. (I like Lily Collins. This isn’t a shot at you, Lily!)

Always remember this: When in doubt, chose star power. The Golden Globes loves to reward stars. I also love stars so I can’t say I blame them for this tactic!

Golden Globes – FILM

The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Nomadland
  • Mank
  • Promising Young Woman
  • The Father

Who Should Win: I truly don’t know. I also haven’t seen The Father.
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL or COMEDY

Who Should Win: Palm Springs
Who Will Win: 
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ACTOR — DRAMA

  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal 
  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father 
  • Gary Oldman, Mank 
  • Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian 

Who Should And Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
  • Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: 
Frances McDormand, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
  • James Corden, The Prom
  • Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

Who Should Win: Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Who Will Win: 
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Kate Hudson, Music 
  • Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
  • Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot 

Who Should And Will Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Jared Leto, The Little Things 

Who Should And Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Editor’s note on 2/28 at 6:30 PM: I originally had Leslie Odom Jr. winning in this category. However, I switched to Kaluuya because Odom Jr. will most likely be rewarded in Best Song and I don’t see him winning two in one night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
  • Olivia Colman, The Father
  • Helena Zengel, News of the World 
  • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
  • Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian 

Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Who Will Win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (I selfishly want Close to win an Oscar. Sue me.)

BEST DIRECTOR

  • David Fincher, Mank
  • Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
  • Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
  • Regina King, One Night in Miami

Who Should And Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST SCREENPLAY

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Mank
  • The Father
  • Nomadland

Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Will Win: 
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Hear My Voice” by Celeste & Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • “Fight for You” by D’Mile, H.E.R., & Tiara Thomas, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • “Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
  • “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, & Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
  • “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Who Should Win: “Tigress & Tweed” by Andra Day & Raphael Saadiq, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Who Will Win: 
“Speak Now” by Sam Ashworth & Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
  • Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul
  • Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
  • James Newton Howard, News of the World

Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
Who Will Win: 
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Minari
  • La Llorona 
  • The Life Ahead
  • Another Round
  • Two of Us 

Who Should And Will Win: Minari

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers
  • Over the Moon
  • Onward
  • The Croods: A New Age

Who Should And Will Win: Soul

Golden Globes – TELEVISION

Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen's Gambit / Netflix
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen’s Gambit / Credit: Netflix

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — DRAMA

  • The Crown
  • The Mandalorian
  • Lovecraft Country
  • Ratched
  • Ozark

Who Should Win: The Mandalorian
Who Will Win: 
The Crown

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — MUSICAL or COMEDY

  • Schitt’s Creek
  • Ted Lasso
  • Emily in Paris
  • The Great
  • The Flight Attendant

Who Should Win: Ted Lasso
Who Will Win: 
Schitt’s Creek

BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Who Should Win: Normal People
Who Will Win: 
The Queen’s Gambit

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
  • Josh O’Connor, The Crown
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 
  • Jason Bateman, Ozark 
  • Al Pacino, Hunters

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 
Who Will Win: 
Al Pacino, Hunters

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Olivia Colman, The Crown
  • Laura Linney, Ozark
  • Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
  • Emma Corrin, The Crown
  • Sarah Paulson, Ratched 

Who Should Win: Laura Linney, Ozark
Who Will Win: 
Emma Corrin, The Crown

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
  • Ramy Youssef, Ramy
  • Nicholas Hoult, The Great
  • Don Cheadle, Black Monday

Who Should Win: Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Who Will Win: 
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
  • Elle Fanning, The Great
  • Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
  • Lily Collins, Emily in Paris 
  • Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist

Who Should Win: Elle Fanning, The Great
Who Will Win: 
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant

LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
  • Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
  • Hugh Grant, The Undoing
  • Bryan Cranston, Your Honor 
  • Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule

Who Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Your Honor 
Who Will Win: 
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
  • Shira Haas, Unorthodox
  • Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
  • Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
  • Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People

Who Should And Will Win: Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule 
  • John Boyega, Small Axe
  • Donald Sutherland, The Undoing 
  • Jim Parsons, Hollywood

Who Should Win: John Boyega, Small Axe
Who Will Win: 
Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Gillian Anderson, The Crown
  • Julia Garner, Ozark
  • Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
  • Cynthia Nixon, Ratched

Who Should Win: Julia Garner, Ozark
Who Will Win: 
Gillian Anderson, The Crown

Who do you believe should win at the Golden Globes? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

2021 Oscars: Biggest Takeaways From Golden Globes And SAG Awards

Minari

Welcome to awards season. In a normal year, many nominees and studios would be making their final push towards the 2021 Oscars. However, in this unprecedented year, the bulk of awards season is just about to begin.

In the past two days, the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released their nominations for their respective ceremonies. As are the rules of the Internet, you have to be happy at the surprises and mad at the snubs. Surprises and snubs always happen.

Once the shock value passes, turn your attention towards the 2021 Oscars. The Golden Globes and SAG Awards are good barometers for Oscar nominations depending on the category. Can anyone stop The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Nomadland in Best Picture? Will Chadwick Boseman become a double nominee? Can Maria Bakalova do the impossible and win an OscaR?

Below are five major categories and their impact on the Oscars.

*Sorry television, but this article is about films only. TV had a monumental year in 2020, but I’m shifting my focus towards movies for now. However, Anya Taylor-Joy better win every award for The Queen’s Gambit.

Best Picture

The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix

Golden Globes – Drama: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Comedy/Musical: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom

SAG AwardsDa 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night In Miami, The Trial Of The Chicago 7

This is a tale of two voting groups. The Globes leaned into acclaimed filmmakers like David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin while the SAGs championed diverse casts. For the Oscars, cut out every comedy/musical from the Globes because none of those movies will receive a Best Picture nomination. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland are the favorites as of now, but watch out for Mank and Minari who are right on their heels.

Oscars Best Picture Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, Nomadland
  • Looking Good – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, The Father
  • Still Alive – One Night In Miami, Sound of Metal, News of the World
  • Darkhorse – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy

Golden Globes – Drama: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian.
Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, James Corden – The Prom, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield, Andy Samberg – Palm Springs

SAG Awards – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari

The biggest story is not who was nominated, but who was left out. Delroy Lindo, who I thought was a lock for a Best Actor nomination, was snubbed from both the Globes and the SAGs. His Oscar chances have severely deteriorated, and that’s a damn shame. There is some recent precedent as Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira both received Oscar nominations Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively without Golden Globe and SAG nominations. For the Oscars, it’s the fight for the fifth spot as Ahmed, Boseman, Oldman, and Hopkins most likely cemented their spots.

Oscars Best Actor Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Looking Good – Steven Yeun – Minari
  • Darkhorse – Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actress

Hillbilly Elegy / Netflix

Golden Globes – Drama: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman 
Comedy/Musical: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Kate Hudson – Music, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot, Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma 

SAG Awards – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Like Best Actor, Best Actress appears to have four locks in Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan. It’s that fifth spot where the confusion lies. Adams came out of nowhere to snag the SAG nomination. Don’t count Adams out for the Oscar nomination since she’s previously been nominated six times. Day and Pfeiffer are right in the mix as well and their campaigns will only gain steam once more people see their respective movies. Bakalova, one of my breakout stars of the year, will be in the supporting category at the Oscars.

Oscars Best Actress Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
  • Still Alive – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
  • Darkhorse – Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot

Best Supporting Actor

One Night in Miami / Amazon Studios

Golden Globes – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami 

SAG Awards – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

If you have a Jared Leto joke, save it for Twitter. In defense of Leto, he’s the best aspect of The Little Things. I appreciate the creepy, edgy serial killer he was trying to portray. The Little Things could have benefitted with more Leto. With that being said, I’m truly shocked he received supporting nominations at both the Globes and SAGs because the movie was not highly received by critics. I hate to sound like a broken record, but this seems to be another battle for one spot between Murray and Boseman. My money is on Boseman.

Oscars Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami 
  • Still Alive – Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Bill Murray – On the Rocks
  • Darkhorse – Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / Amazon Studios

Golden Globes – Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World 

SAG Awards – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari, Helena Zengel – News of the World

Three days ago, if you asked me to pick a favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, I would have selected Seyfried for Mank. Three months ago, I would have picked Close for Hillbilly Elegy. Now, I’m not confident with either of those predictions. Close is a lock while Seyfried should get the nomination. Call me crazy, but the favorites to win have to be Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung. Both actresses continue to rack up supporting wins from various critics’ circles. The winner of the SAG award will be in the driver’s seat.

Oscars Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
  • Still Alive – Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
  • Darkhorse – Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian

What are your takeaways from the Golden Globe and SAG nominations? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Film And TV Nominations

Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen's Gambit / Netflix

In 2021, the Golden Globes, not the Oscars, will be airing at the end of February. In a normal year, the Golden Globes would have aired in January, and the Oscar contenders would have been making one last push for votes right about now.

However, this year has been nowhere near normal. Between theater closings and streaming wars, the way we watch movies and television changed dramatically. By now, I would have seen 95% of films nominated at the Golden Globes. Now, I’m playing catch up.

Let’s not skip ahead to the Oscars just yet. The Golden Globes nominations will be announced on Feb. 3. I wrote this last year, but the same principles apply when predicting nominations.

  1. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) loves to spotlight new shows and talent. Ask yourself “What dominated pop culture,” or as the kids say, “What’s hot in the streets?”
  2. The HFPA LOVE stars. If there’s an A-list star in a movie or television show, whether it’s good or bad, there’s a solid chance they’re getting a nomination in order to guarantee their attendance. NOTE: I have no idea if there will be people in attendance so this guideline may adust. However, stars on Zoom calls are better than no stars at all.
  3. The Golden Globes don’t predict Oscar winners, but it’s a good barometer. For example, Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern all won in their respective categories before going on to win at the Oscars.

With so much unknown, my confidence meter is lower than usual in both film and television. Despite my lack of belief, I trust my gut when it comes to a few of my standout predictions.

  • Hamilton – Voters are going to love it.
  • Leslie Odom Jr. is going to receive three individual nominations in three separate categories.
  • Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee, and he’ll win Best Actor in a Drama.
  • I’m buying the Bridgerton hype especially for Best Series, Best Actor, and Best Actress.
  • Borat will be well-represented and could sweep Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, Best Actress in a Comedy Musical, and Best Comedy/Musical
  • Dave Burd is my long shot to not only receive an acting nomination, but win the category.

Below are my full predictions.

GOLDEN GLOBES – FILM

Mank / Netflix
Mank / Netflix

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

  • The Trial of the Chicago
  • Nomadland
  • Mank
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • The Father

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL or COMEDY

  • Hamilton
  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Palm Springs
  • On the Rocks
  • The Prom

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Gary Oldman, Mank
  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
  • Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
  • Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
  • Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
  • Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

  • Meryl Streep, The Prom
  • Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
  • Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
  • Olivia Colman, The Father
  • Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
  • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
  • Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

BEST DIRECTOR

  • David Fincher, Mank
  • Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
  • Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago
  • Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
  • Regina King, One Night in Miami

BEST SCREENPLAY

  • The Trial of the Chicago
  • Nomadland
  • Mank
  • One Night in Miami
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

I have not studied the submissions yet for this category. However, Leslie Odom Jr. is going to be nominated for a song from One Night in Miami. Look out for Taylor Swift in this category as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Tenet
  • Mank
  • Soul
  • Hillbilly Elegy
  • News of the World

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Minari
  • Bacurau
  • The Life Ahead
  • Another Round
  • Dear Comrades

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers
  • Over the Moon
  • Onward
  • The Willoughbys

GOLDEN GLOBES – TELEVISION

Normal People Hulu
Normal People / Hulu

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — DRAMA

  • The Crown
  • The Mandalorian
  • Lovecraft Country
  • Bridgerton
  • The Boys

BEST TELEVISION SERIES — MUSICAL or COMEDY

  • Schitt’s Creek
  • Ted Lasso
  • Ramy
  • The Great
  • The Flight Attendant

BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES or MOVIE

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
  • Josh O’Connor, The Crown
  • Rege-Jean Page, Bridgerton
  • Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country
  • Al Pacino, Hunters

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

  • Olivia Colman, The Crown
  • Laura Linney, Ozark
  • Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country
  • Emma Corrin, The Crown
  • Phoebe Dynevor, Bridgerton

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
  • Ramy Youssef, Ramy
  • Nicholas Hoult, The Great
  • Dave Burd, Dave

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

  • Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
  • Elle Fanning, The Great
  • Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
  • Issa Rae, Insecure
  • Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist

LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
  • Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
  • Hugh Grant, The Undoing
  • Paul Mescal, Normal People
  • Hugh Jackman, Bad Education

LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
  • Shira Haas, Unorthodox
  • Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
  • Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
  • Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Mahershala Ali, Ramy
  • John Boyega, Small Axe
  • Tobias Menzies, The Crown
  • Jim Parsons, Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TELEVISION FILM

  • Gillian Anderson, The Crown
  • Uzo Aduba, Mrs. America
  • Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
  • Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
  • Letitia Wright, Small Axe

Who do you think will be nominated? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.