Minari

Welcome to awards season. In a normal year, many nominees and studios would be making their final push towards the 2021 Oscars. However, in this unprecedented year, the bulk of awards season is just about to begin.

In the past two days, the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released their nominations for their respective ceremonies. As are the rules of the Internet, you have to be happy at the surprises and mad at the snubs. Surprises and snubs always happen.

Once the shock value passes, turn your attention towards the 2021 Oscars. The Golden Globes and SAG Awards are good barometers for Oscar nominations depending on the category. Can anyone stop The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Nomadland in Best Picture? Will Chadwick Boseman become a double nominee? Can Maria Bakalova do the impossible and win an OscaR?

Below are five major categories and their impact on the Oscars.

*Sorry television, but this article is about films only. TV had a monumental year in 2020, but I’m shifting my focus towards movies for now. However, Anya Taylor-Joy better win every award for The Queen’s Gambit.

Best Picture

The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix

Golden Globes – Drama: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Comedy/Musical: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom

SAG AwardsDa 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night In Miami, The Trial Of The Chicago 7

This is a tale of two voting groups. The Globes leaned into acclaimed filmmakers like David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin while the SAGs championed diverse casts. For the Oscars, cut out every comedy/musical from the Globes because none of those movies will receive a Best Picture nomination. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland are the favorites as of now, but watch out for Mank and Minari who are right on their heels.

Oscars Best Picture Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, Nomadland
  • Looking Good – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, The Father
  • Still Alive – One Night In Miami, Sound of Metal, News of the World
  • Darkhorse – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy

Golden Globes – Drama: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian.
Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, James Corden – The Prom, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield, Andy Samberg – Palm Springs

SAG Awards – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari

The biggest story is not who was nominated, but who was left out. Delroy Lindo, who I thought was a lock for a Best Actor nomination, was snubbed from both the Globes and the SAGs. His Oscar chances have severely deteriorated, and that’s a damn shame. There is some recent precedent as Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira both received Oscar nominations Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively without Golden Globe and SAG nominations. For the Oscars, it’s the fight for the fifth spot as Ahmed, Boseman, Oldman, and Hopkins most likely cemented their spots.

Oscars Best Actor Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Looking Good – Steven Yeun – Minari
  • Darkhorse – Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actress

Hillbilly Elegy / Netflix

Golden Globes – Drama: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman 
Comedy/Musical: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Kate Hudson – Music, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot, Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma 

SAG Awards – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Like Best Actor, Best Actress appears to have four locks in Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan. It’s that fifth spot where the confusion lies. Adams came out of nowhere to snag the SAG nomination. Don’t count Adams out for the Oscar nomination since she’s previously been nominated six times. Day and Pfeiffer are right in the mix as well and their campaigns will only gain steam once more people see their respective movies. Bakalova, one of my breakout stars of the year, will be in the supporting category at the Oscars.

Oscars Best Actress Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
  • Still Alive – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
  • Darkhorse – Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot

Best Supporting Actor

One Night in Miami / Amazon Studios

Golden Globes – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami 

SAG Awards – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

If you have a Jared Leto joke, save it for Twitter. In defense of Leto, he’s the best aspect of The Little Things. I appreciate the creepy, edgy serial killer he was trying to portray. The Little Things could have benefitted with more Leto. With that being said, I’m truly shocked he received supporting nominations at both the Globes and SAGs because the movie was not highly received by critics. I hate to sound like a broken record, but this seems to be another battle for one spot between Murray and Boseman. My money is on Boseman.

Oscars Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami 
  • Still Alive – Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Bill Murray – On the Rocks
  • Darkhorse – Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / Amazon Studios

Golden Globes – Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World 

SAG Awards – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari, Helena Zengel – News of the World

Three days ago, if you asked me to pick a favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, I would have selected Seyfried for Mank. Three months ago, I would have picked Close for Hillbilly Elegy. Now, I’m not confident with either of those predictions. Close is a lock while Seyfried should get the nomination. Call me crazy, but the favorites to win have to be Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung. Both actresses continue to rack up supporting wins from various critics’ circles. The winner of the SAG award will be in the driver’s seat.

Oscars Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions

  • Locks – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
  • Still Alive – Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
  • Darkhorse – Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian

What are your takeaways from the Golden Globe and SAG nominations? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.

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