To quote Alan Garner from The Hangover, “How ’bout that ride in?” Before we move on to the 2022 Oscars, we must address the 2021 Oscars. Due to that thing they call “the pandemic,” the Oscars looked a lot different in 2021. With a new date and venue, change isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
After the 2021 ceremony, I found myself wanting a show from years prior. I appreciated some of the risks the producers (Steven Soderbergh was one of the producers) took including the decision to allow winners as much time for as long as they wanted. Without that decision, we don’t get Thomas Vinterberg’s beautiful speech or Daniel Kaluuya’s sex joke. Then again, some people did need to be played off, but that’s the risk.
However, the show desperately needs a host to hold things together. In a year where the films were barely seen by the general public, not including clips for all of the categories was bizarre. Finally, moving Best Picture ahead of Best Actress and Best Actor was a risk that didn’t pay off. The show awkwardly ended with Joaquin Phoenix accepting the award for Anthony Hopkins*, who wasn’t in attendance for his Best Actor win. The producers clearly believed Chadwick Boseman would win and the show would end with a beautiful tribute to a wonderful actor who died too soon. That didn’t happen, and the ending fell flat.
*I was shocked that Boseman didn’t win. However, saying Hopkins didn’t deserve to win is outrageous. Hopkins gave a career-defining performance in The Father. I wanted Boseman to win, and Hopkins gave an incredible, award-winning performance. Both can be true!
With the 2021 Oscars in the rearview, it’s time to look ahead to the 2022 Oscars. I admit that I’m crazy for looking so far ahead, but I love this shit. To all of the studio heads, please release your movies this year. Stop delaying!
Mr. Spielberg, the ball is in your court. Type in “most-anticipated movies of 2021” into a search engine and 98% of the articles will include Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story, which arrives in theaters this December. Adapting West Side Story, which won 10 Oscars in 1962 including Best Picture, will be Spielberg’s most ambitious task since 1993’s Schindler’s List. I have no idea what to expect from Spielberg’s musical. It could mirror the sucess of 1961’s adaptation or be a dud like Cats. Actually, I can guarantee it won’t be like Cats so expect West Side Story to receive multiple Oscar nominations. With good reviews and a strong box office performance, West Side Story might be the favorite to win Best Picture next awards season.
Will PTA Finally Win Some Gold?
Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘SOGGY BOTTOM’, starring Bradley Cooper, Cooper Hoffman, Alana Haim and Benny Safdie, is in talks to potentially have a Cannes 2021 premiere.
One of the most acclaimed and well-respected filmmakers of his generation is Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA). If you called PTA a master of his craft, you won’t hear any argument from me. PTA is the only person to win the top directing prizes at the film festivals in Venice, Berlin, and Cannes. However, PTA has zero individual wins at Oscars despite eight nominations over 20-plus years.
PTA will have another chance at Oscar glory with Soggy Bottom, a film about a high school student’s attempt to become an actor in 1970s Los Angeles. If PTA is going to win his first Oscar, odds are it’s in the screenplay category. A showdown between Wes Anderson and PTA in the screenplay category is imminent. Sign me up for that battle!
Will Dune be a hit with the Academy?
Dune is at the top of my most anticipated movies of 2021. However, I fear the battle between Warner and Denis Villeneuve will intensify after this decision to keep #Dune as an HBO Max + theaters agreement. Please work this out! https://t.co/zzpg1BrUVt
West Side Story might be at the top of many lists for anticipated films of 2021, but my pick is Dune, the sci-fi epic from Denis Villeneuve. Sci-fi rarely gets rewarded in the top categories at the Oscars, but Villeneuve did just that with a Best Picture and Best Director nomination for 2016’s Arrival. With a star-studded cast headlined by Timothée Chalamet, Dune has all the makings of an Oscar hit.
Dune‘s success will predicate on its release strategy. As of now, Dune will have a simultaneous release in theaters and on HBO Max. Villeneuve is clearly opposed and upset with this decision as evidenced in his open letter to Warner Bros. Dune debuting on HBO Max would be a huge win for the streaming service, but it would piss of its director. I think there’s a compromise on the horizon similar to what Paramount+ will do with its new 45-day release window.
Quick Hits
Leonardo DiCaprio will have two high-profile releases in Killers of the Flower Moon and Don’t Look Up. It looks like he’ll run supporting for Flower Moon and lead for Don’t Look Up. A double nominee is not out of the question.
Speaking of Scorsese, he’s taking his talents to a new streaming service, Apple TV+, for the aforementioned Killers of the Flower Moon. Up to this point, this is Apple’s best chance to win Oscars.
Every year, Netflix has one golden goose to push during awards season. Last year, it was Mank. In 2021, it will be Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up, with a cast that’s more stacked than the 2020-2021 Nets.
Will Frances McDormand tie the record for most acting Oscar wins with four? It’s possible, but after her win for Nomadland, she has to be included with Meryl Streep for the best living actress.
In my defense, most of these films were pushed to 2021. However, I will pat myself on the back for Nomadland, Trial of the Chicago 7, and Mank. We don’t have to talk about my Hillbilly Elegy prediction.
Without further ado, my way-too-early predictions for the 2022 Oscars. Keep in mind that Best Picture will be set at 10 nominees as part of the Academy’s diversity and inclusivity initiative.
2022 Oscars: Predictions
Best Picture
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Soggy Bottom
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Actor
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter
Richard Jenkins – The Humans
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Tessa Thompson – Passing
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Bryan Tyree Henry – Red, White and Water
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Jesse Plemons – Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Regina King – The Harder They Fall
Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley
Ruth Negga – Passing
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Jane Campion – Power of the Dog
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Leave your predictions in the comments below or tweet me, @danny_giro.
The long wait is over. We’ve reached the finish line. The 2021 Oscars are finally upon us.
It still hasn’t hit me that the 93rd Academy Awards are in late-April this year as opposed to February. The ghost of 2020 is still haunting the world as the film community is rewarding films that came out well over one year ago. Blame COVID, not the industry.
As someone who adores the Oscars, it’s tough for me to get excited about this year’s ceremony because of what’s going on in the world. I’m going to watch every minute of the ceremony, but my excitement won’t be nearly as high as years prior. I also didn’t see any of the nominated films in a theater. Boy does that suck.
Enough of the pity party though. I love making predictions and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Let’s end the film year with an 80% success rate on my picks. Here we go.
As someone who loves and appreciates everything about the film industry, I have to be honest about this year’s Best Picture race. A lot of these films are good, but not great. It pains me to type that, but it’s the truth. I’m going to blame the pandemic for thwarting the entire 2020 movie release schedule. Many of these films would have been better off being seen in a theater, which would have increased my positivity.
Compared to last year, this year’s crop of nominees is significantly weaker. That was bound to happen considering last year’s ceremony had a stacked lineup of films from extraordinary filmmakers like Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, Bong Joon-ho, and Greta Gerwig.
When the best movie I saw in 2020 isn’t eligible for a nomination (Mangrove from Steve McQueen), you’re going to run into some problems. Out of the eight nominees, Judas and the Black Messiah captivated my attention the most. It would get my first-place vote. However, Nomadland, which I enjoyed, will cap off a dominate awards season with the ceremony’s top prize.
Who Should Win:Judas and the Black Messiah Who Will Win: Nomadland
I would argue that the 93rd Oscars features good films with great directors. All five of these directors are great in their own way. I would love nothing more than to award David Fincher with the Oscar he deserves, but it won’t happen this year. Chloé Zhao will become the second female to ever win Best Director. A well-deserved victory for a thoughtful and compassionate filmmaker.
Who Should Win: Chloé Zhao – Nomadland Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Chadwick is going to win an Oscar. My initial thought was to put him in Supporting for MA RAINEY. Now, this opens the door to become a double nominee as he’ll go supporting for DA 5 BLOODS. He deserves all of the recognition in the world. https://t.co/daJsQuzuAw
Don’t let the BAFTA win for Anthony Hopkins throw off your predictions. Chadwick Boseman should win this award. Chadwick Boseman deserves to win this award. Most importantly, Chadwick Boseman will win this award. We miss you, King.
Who Should Win: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as Levee Green Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as Levee Green
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as Ma Rainey
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday as Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman as Martha Weiss
Frances McDormand – Nomadland as Fern
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman as Cassandra “Cassie” Thomas
Out of all the acting categories, Best Actress is the hardest to predict. All of the nominees besides Kirby won Best Actress at key ceremonies. Day won the Golden Globe, Davis won the SAG, Mulligan won the Critics’ Choice, and McDormand won the BAFTA. In other words, it’s as close to a toss-up as you can get. My personal pick would be Mulligan, but if I’m guessing who the voters will choose, it’s between Davis and McDormand. Since Nomadland is due for a big night, I’ll take McDormand for the win.
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman as Cassandra Thomas Who Will Win: Frances McDormand – Nomadland as Fern
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 as Abbie Hoffman
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah as Fred Hampton
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami… as Sam Cooke
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal as Joe
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah as William “Bill” O’Neal
Daniel Kaluuya should and will win at the Oscars. He’s a stud that consistently turns in captivating performances. I’m a big Kaluuya fan. However, this has to be category fraud, right? I would say that Kaluuya and Stanfield are co-leads, but I understand why he’s in supporting because no one is beating Chadwick nor should anyone beat Chadwick. Paul Raci is the only guy in this category who’s truly a supporting actor so by default, he should win. How can you not love Raci? The guy is so damn cool. (Raci receiving a nomination was one of my favorite moments this season.)
I love Youn Yuh-jung. She’s been such a delight to watch on the awards circuit. Watching her call British people “snobs” was one of the best laughs I’ve had in months. She’s going to win at Oscars, but I wish it went to Maria Bakalova. Her performance in Borat 2 was out-of-this-world good. To steal the show from Sacha Baron Cohen seemed downright impossible, but Bakalova easily won the movie.
Who Should Win: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm as Tutar Sagdiyev Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung – Minari as Soon-ja
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson and Shaka King; Story by Berson, King, Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas
Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Abraham Marder and Darius Marder; Story by Derek Cianfrance and D. Marder
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin
Since 2019, Emerald Fennell created Killing Eve Season 2, acted in The Crown, and wrote/directed Promising Young Woman. That’s a hell of a two-year stretch. Fennell’s picked up major wins at the BAFTAs and WGAs so I don’t see her losing this category. Promising Young Woman also had one of the best plot twists of the last five years.
Who Should Win:Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer; Story by Baron Cohen, Hines, Nina Pedrad and Swimer; Based on the character by Baron Cohen
The Father – Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, based on the play by Zeller
I said this last year and I’ll say it again,. When in doubt, choose Pixar. Soul in a landslide.
Who Should Win:Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray Who Will Win: Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Mads, let’s get drunk.
Who Should Win:Another Round (Denmark) Who Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
I didn’t see My Octopus Teacher, but it won the BAFTA and the PGA. It’s the leader in the clubhouse. However, I’m going with the upset and picking Time.
Who Should Win:Time Who Will Win: Time
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Minari – Emile Mosseri
News of the World – James Newton Howard
Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
TENET WAS ROBBED! JUSTICE FOR LUDWIG!
If Ludwig can’t win, I have no problems with Trent and Atticus winning more Oscars with the help of Mr. Jon Batiste.
Who Should Win:Tenet – Ludwig Göransson (not nominated) Who Will Win: Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah – Music by D’Mile and H.E.R.; lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Music by Daniel Pemberton; lyric by Celeste and Pemberton
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga – Music and lyric by Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus and Savan Kotecha
“Io sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead – Music by Diane Warren; lyric by Laura Pausini and Warren
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… – Music and lyric by Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr.
Can’t say I’ve revisited these songs like I did with “Shallow.” A Eurovision win would be fun and in a COVID year, maybe a fun song is exactly what we need. I’ll go with the safer pick and choose Leslie Odom Jr. If Odom wants to perform “The Room Where It Happens” from Hamilton, I wouldn’t be opposed.
Who Should Win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga – Music and lyric by Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus and Savan Kotecha Who Will Win: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… – Music and lyric by Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael
Mank received 10 nominations. They have to win some Oscars, right? The technical categories is where Mank can do some damage. Nomadland is the favorite after it’s BAFTA win, but I’m going with Mank, who won the ASC, in a slight upset.
Who Should Win:Nomadland – Joshua James Richards Who Will Win: Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
BEST SOUND
Greyhound – Beau Borders, Michael Minkler, Warren Shaw and David Wyman
Mank – Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod, Nathan Nance and David Parker
News of the World – William Miller, John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith and Oliver Tarney
Soul – Coya Elliot, Ren Klyce and David Parker
Sound of Metal – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés and Michelle Couttolenc
There’s a movie with the word “sound” in its title. Enough said.
Who Should Win:Soul – Coya Elliot, Ren Klyce and David Parker Who Will Win: Sound of Metal – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés and Michelle Couttolenc
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Father – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Sroughton
Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
News of the World – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Mank is pulling a Mad Max: Fury Road at the Oscars with these technical wins.
Who Should Win:Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas Who Will Win: Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Emma. – Laura Allen, Marese Langan and Claudia Stolze
Hillbilly Elegy – Patricia Dehaney, Eryn Krueger Mekash and Matthew W. Mungle
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
Mank – Colleen LaBaff, Kimberley Spiteri and Gigi Williams
Pinocchio – Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier and Francesco Pegoretti
Emma winning here would be a delight. Watch out for Hillbilly Elegy. I’ll go with the 1920s drama that made me want to crush a Coke.
Who Should Win:Emma. – Laura Allen, Marese Langan and Claudia Stolze Who Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma. – Alexandra Byrne
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth
Mank – Trish Summerville
Mulan – Bina Daigeler
Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini
The last film to win in both the makeup and costume categories was Mad Max: Fury Road. Can Ma Rainey do the same at this year’s Oscars? I don’t think so. I’m riding the Mank train for the technical categories and going with the upset.
Who Should Win:Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth Who Will Win: Mank – Trish Summerville
BEST FILM EDITING
The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten
Three of last five winners of the ACE Eddie Award for editing went on to win Oscars in the same category. The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the ACE Eddie. That’s the pick here.
Who Should Win:Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters – Genevieve Camailleri, Brian Cox, Matt Everitt and Matt Sloan
The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
Mulan – Sean Andrew Faden, Steve Ingram, Anders Langlands and Seth Maury
The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
Tenet – Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee and Andrew Lockley
The best movie on this list is Tenet. The Academy loves Nolan films from a technical side. That trend will continue Sunday night.
Who Should Win:Tenet – Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee and Andrew Lockley Who Will Win: Tenet – Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee and Andrew Lockley
For the final three categories, I’m not going to pretend I know anything about them. I haven’t seen any of the shorts. I wish they were more accessible throughout the year instead of making them available in one virtual theater before the ceremony. Since I didn’t see any of these films, I’ll only pick “who will win.”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Colette – Alice Doyard and Anthony Giacchino
A Concerto Is a Conversation – Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot
Do Not Split – Charlotte Cook and Anders Hammer
Hunger Ward – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Shueuerman
A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahali Allison and Janice Duncan
Who Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahali Allison and Janice Duncan
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Feeling Through – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
The Present – Ossama Bawardi and Farah Nabulsi
Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
White Eye – Shira Hochman and Tomer Shushan
Oscar Isaac was in The Letter Room. Let’s do that.
Who Will Win: The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Burrow – Michael Capbarat and Madeline Sharafian
Genius Loci – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
If Anything Happens I Love You – Michael Govier and Will McCormack
Opera – Erick Oh
Yes-People – Arnar Gunnarsson and Gísli Darri Halldórsson
Who Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You – Michael Govier and Will McCormack
Thank you for reading my discussions about the Oscars all year. I really appreciate it. Follow me on Twitter, @danny_giro.
The first stop on the road to the Oscars happened last Sunday night at the Golden Globes. Which actors and films picked up crucial victories on the road to the Oscars?
How Do The Golden Globes Affect The Oscars?
The Golden Globes are so unpredictable that they’ve actually become predictable. What do I mean? Viewers now expect the Globes to do something so against the grain every year that it’s no surprise when it happens. Sometimes, it’s a good surprise like rewarding Andra Day for Best Actress in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Other times,a film like Music*, which was universally panned by critics, receives a nomination for Best Musical or Comedy.
*Kate Hudson, you were robbed of Oscars for your performances in Almost Famous and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.
Before we can determine if the Golden Globes might affect the Oscars, let’s go over the winners in each category.
Best Motion Picture– Drama: Nomadland
Best Motion Picture– Musical or Comedy: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Director: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross, Soul
Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
Best Foreign Film:Minari
Best Animated Feature:Soul
Take a long look at this list. Some of the winners should start practicing their acceptance speeches for the Oscars. Others should just enjoy this moment right now because it will take a miracle to win in late April. Joe Reid of Vulture wrote a great piece about the Globes and if it translates to Oscar success. Since 1991, out of the 404 winners in the film categories, only 201 went on to win the Oscar, which is just under 50%.
Some of these categories are easier to predict than others. Based on Sunday night’s winners, a few of these races seem over.
My Stone Cold Locks To Win Oscars
Chadwick Boseman's wife, Taylor Simone Ledward, accepted his Golden Globe award 🖤
Best Actor – Drama: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Animated Feature:Soul
If you put a gun to my head and asked for the three Golden Globe winners to win Oscars, I’d pick Boseman, Kaluuya, and Soul. Boseman is not going to lose, and rightfully so. Pixar rarely loses Best Animated Film at the Oscars (10 wins in 13 tries) so Soul is going to win. You could argue Kaluuya is more of a wildcard, but the public’s reception to Judas and the Black Messiah has been strong so I see him riding this wave to the Oscars.
Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score For Either Mank or Soul: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
A step below locks are the safe bets, which are the ones you would feel good about predicting. Zhao became the second woman ever to win the Golden Globe for Best Director and will most likely become the second female ever to win the directing Oscar. Nomadland has a lot of support, which bodes well for her chances in this category. At the Oscars, screenplay is divided into Best Adapted and Best Original. Sorkin will compete in Best Orginal Screenplay and will be a big favorite to win his second Oscar. Finally, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are competing against themselves as either Soul or Mank will win for Best Score.
On The Right Track
Nomadland wins the final category of the night, Best Drama. Since the Golden Globes' inception in 1943, 49% of winners in this category have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Nomadland ascended to the top of the Best Picture race with a win in Best Motion Picture – Drama. However, it’s no guarantee it will win Best Picture. Since 2010, the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner has gone on to win Best Picture only three times. I’m interested to see if The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Minari can gain ground on Nomadland with wins at either the Critics’ Choice Awards or SAG Awards.
Your Guess Is As Good As Mine
Golden Globes: Andra Day Becomes First Black Best Actress Winner in 35 Years https://t.co/gWlWOyfzEf
Best Actress – Drama: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Best Supporting Actress: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Original Song: “Io sì (Seen)” by Niccolò Agliardi, Laura Pausini, and Diane Warren, The Life Ahead
Best Foreign Film:Minari
Out of these five winners, the easiest category to predict is Best International Film. Minari will not be eligible in this category at the Oscars. I just don’t know what film that will win. Then, there’s Best Original Song. Diane Warren has been nominated in this category 11 (!!!!) times and will most likely receive her 12th nomination for “Io sì (Seen).” Will she finally be rewarded with an Oscar? Maybe?
If you like upsets, the Golden Globes provided them in every female acting category, Day, Pike, and Foster were underdogs in their respective categories and all left Sunday night with some hardware. These wins throw a wrench in the plans of every Oscar prognosticator.
Forget the winner, predicting the nominees will be a tall task for both best actress and best supporting actress. In Best Actress, Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, and Carey Mulligan should receive the first three nominations. Before the Globes, Vanessa Kirby appeared to be on the fast track to a nomination. Now, I’m not so confident anymore. Between Day and Pike, I lean towards Day receiving the nomination, but Pike is well-respected in the film community. Could she also be nominated and take Kirby’s spot? My prediction: Kirby and Day receive nominations to round out the category.
Frankly, Best Supporting Actress is a clusterfuck. Foster’s win was way out of left field. This category is so competitive that I don’t think Foster will even be nominated for an Oscar. Only two women were nominated in this category at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and SAG Awards. Those women are Olivia Colman and Glenn Close.
Let’s assume Colman and Close are two of the five nominees. That leaves five women for three spots: Foster, Amanda Seyfried, Youn Yuh-jung, Helena Zengel, and Maria Bakalova. This category depends on Bakalova. Will the Academy take her performance in Borat 2 seriously? Hopefully, will because Bakalova stole the show from Cohen, which was no easy task. If I had a vote, Bakalova would be my winner. So if Bakalova gets nominated, that means there are two more spots. Mank received the most nominations at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards so Seyfried will probably receive a nomination for the best performance of her career. That leaves Zengel, Youn Yuh-jung, and Foster for the fifth and final spot. Because of her nomination at both the Globes and SAGs, Zengel is my pick for the fifth and final nomination.
TL;DR: To determine if a winner at the Golden Globes will also win at the Oscars, flip a coin.
Welcome to awards season. In a normal year, many nominees and studios would be making their final push towards the 2021 Oscars. However, in this unprecedented year, the bulk of awards season is just about to begin.
In the past two days, the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released their nominations for their respective ceremonies. As are the rules of the Internet, you have to be happy at the surprises and mad at the snubs. Surprises and snubs always happen.
Once the shock value passes, turn your attention towards the 2021 Oscars. The Golden Globes and SAG Awards are good barometers for Oscar nominations depending on the category. Can anyone stop The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Nomadland in Best Picture? Will Chadwick Boseman become a double nominee? Can Maria Bakalova do the impossible and win an OscaR?
Below are five major categories and their impact on the Oscars.
*Sorry television, but this article is about films only. TV had a monumental year in 2020, but I’m shifting my focus towards movies for now. However, Anya Taylor-Joy better win every award for The Queen’s Gambit.
Best Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
Golden Globes – Drama: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7. Comedy/Musical: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
SAG Awards – Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night In Miami, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
This is a tale of two voting groups. The Globes leaned into acclaimed filmmakers like David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin while the SAGs championed diverse casts. For the Oscars, cut out every comedy/musical from the Globes because none of those movies will receive a Best Picture nomination. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland are the favorites as of now, but watch out for Mank and Minari who are right on their heels.
Oscars Best Picture Nomination Predictions
Locks – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, Nomadland
Looking Good – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, The Father
Still Alive – One Night In Miami, Sound of Metal, News of the World
Darkhorse – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Golden Globes – Drama: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian. Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, James Corden – The Prom, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield, Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
SAG Awards – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari
The biggest story is not who was nominated, but who was left out. Delroy Lindo, who I thought was a lock for a Best Actor nomination, was snubbed from both the Globes and the SAGs. His Oscar chances have severely deteriorated, and that’s a damn shame. There is some recent precedent as Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira both received Oscar nominations Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively without Golden Globe and SAG nominations. For the Oscars, it’s the fight for the fifth spot as Ahmed, Boseman, Oldman, and Hopkins most likely cemented their spots.
Oscars Best Actor Nomination Predictions
Locks – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank
Golden Globes – Drama: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman Comedy/Musical: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Kate Hudson – Music, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot, Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma
SAG Awards – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Like Best Actor, Best Actress appears to have four locks in Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan. It’s that fifth spot where the confusion lies. Adams came out of nowhere to snag the SAG nomination. Don’t count Adams out for the Oscar nomination since she’s previously been nominated six times. Day and Pfeiffer are right in the mix as well and their campaigns will only gain steam once more people see their respective movies. Bakalova, one of my breakout stars of the year, will be in the supporting category at the Oscars.
Oscars Best Actress Nomination Predictions
Locks – Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Still Alive – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Darkhorse – Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
Best Supporting Actor
One Night in Miami / Amazon Studios
Golden Globes – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami
SAG Awards – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
If you have a Jared Leto joke, save it for Twitter. In defense of Leto, he’s the best aspect of The Little Things. I appreciate the creepy, edgy serial killer he was trying to portray. The Little Things could have benefitted with more Leto. With that being said, I’m truly shocked he received supporting nominations at both the Globes and SAGs because the movie was not highly received by critics. I hate to sound like a broken record, but this seems to be another battle for one spot between Murray and Boseman. My money is on Boseman.
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions
Locks – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami
Still Alive – Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Darkhorse – Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / Amazon Studios
Golden Globes – Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
SAG Awards – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari, Helena Zengel – News of the World
Three days ago, if you asked me to pick a favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, I would have selected Seyfried for Mank. Three months ago, I would have picked Close for Hillbilly Elegy. Now, I’m not confident with either of those predictions. Close is a lock while Seyfried should get the nomination. Call me crazy, but the favorites to win have to be Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung. Both actresses continue to rack up supporting wins from various critics’ circles. The winner of the SAG award will be in the driver’s seat.
Oscars Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions
Locks – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Still Alive – Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
Darkhorse – Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
What are your takeaways from the Golden Globe and SAG nominations? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
It’s 2021, which means the eligibility window for the 2021 Oscars closes in less than two months. Both Apple TV+ and Netflix are making late additions to their Oscars’ slate with Cherry and Malcolm & Marie.
Cherry And Malcolm & Marie Look To Crash The Party
Here come the streaming services. Just when the Oscar races were starting to form contenders, Apple and Netflix hit the film community with a “not so fast my friend.” Apple and Netflix are banking on star power to win over voters with Cherry and Malcolm & Marie.
Cherry stars Tom Holland as the titular character, a US soldier suffering from PTSD. To pay for his opioid addiction, Cherry starts to rob banks. Directed by The Russo Brothers, Cherry is based on the acclaimed semi-autobiographical novel from author Nico Walker.
Both Holland and The Russo Brothers are set to prove they can play outside of the Marvel sandbox. Spider-Man made Holland a superstar, but this young talent doesn’t need spandex to prove he can light up the screen. Holland’s track record outside of Marvel speaks for itself with good performances in The Impossible and The Lost City of Z. With a difficult subject matter and long runtime (150 minutes), it’s going to be hard for Cherry to break into the Oscar field. However, Holland will get some votes for Best Actor so a nomination could be in his future within the next five years.
Cherry will premiere in theaters on Feb. 26 before streaming on Apple TV+ on Mar. 12.
While Cherry could struggle to gain traction with voters, it’s quite the opposite with Malcolm & Marie. I don’t see a world where Malcolm & Marie receive zero nominations for the 2021 Oscars. Directed and written by Sam Levinson (Euphoria), John David Washington and Zendaya star as Malcolm, a filmmaker, and Marie, his girlfriend. After a successful movie premiere, the couple returns home and begins to question their relationship as Malcolm’s celebrity status will soon rise.
What do the Oscars love? Stars and films about Hollywood. Malcolm & Marie checks both boxes. John David Washington and Zendaya are both charismatic, attractive, and well-liked actors. Both are coming off star-making performances in Tenet and Euphoria, respectively. Levinson, son of Oscar-winner Barry Levinson, is starting to hit his stride as a writer/director. Malcolm & Marie will compete for nominations in Best Actor, Best Cinematography, Best Orginal Screenplay, Best Production Design, and perhaps Best Picture.
With that being said, if you had to cash your chips in on one category, go all-in on a Best Actress nomination for Zendaya. The gifted actress has all the momentum in the world after her Emmywin for Euphoria. An Oscar nomination would catapult her to elite status.
Malcolm & Marie premieres Feb 5 on Netflix.
Other News And Notes
– Judas and the Black Messiah looks fantastic. Lakeith Stanfield is one of the most eclectic actors in Hollywood. Does anyone have better taste than Daniel Kaluuya? Since 2015, Kaluuya has done Sicaro, Get Out, Black Panther, Widows, and Queen & Slim. The man doesn’t miss and he’s inserted himself right into the Best Supporting Actor race.
Judas and The Black Messiah is one of the best films of the year. An engaging & powerful Fred Hampton biopic with real punch. Expect to see nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor for Daniel Kaluuya at the very minimum. #JudasandTheBlackMessiahpic.twitter.com/6B6B7quaPX
Stop me if you’ve heard this story before, but Frances McDormand stars in a film that will garner many Oscar nominations. The aforementioned film is Nomadland.
Nomadland To Open In February 2021, Eligible For 2021 Oscars
Mark your calendars down. Nomadland has been rescheduled to open in theaters on Feb. 19, 2021. The film’s original release date was Dec. 2020, but Disney moved it to after the start of the new year due to the pandemic. More importantly, Nomadland will be eligible for the 2021 Oscars as the eligibility window ends Feb. 28, 2021.
Nomadland stars McDormand as Fern, a woman in her sixties who decides to pack up her things and live as a modern-day nomad after the Great Recession. The film features real nomads Linda May, Bob Wells, and Charlene Swankie as well as David Strathairn. Nomadland is directed by Chloé Zhao, who is best known for 2017’s The Rider and the upcoming Marvel movie, The Eternals.
Nomadland will turn its sights towards the 2021 Oscars. On Gold Derby, Nomadland occupies the top spot for Best Picture winner by the majority of experts and critics. Nomadland became the first film to ever won top prizes at both the Venice Film Festival and Toronto International Film Festival. McDormand is a lock to pick up a nomination for Best Actress, and Zhao will most certainly become the sixth female to receive a Best Director nomination.
Nomadland may be a small drama, but it’s no underdog.
Riz Ahmed Shines In Sound Of Metal
Over the weekend, I watched Sound of Metal on Amazon Prime. The film stars Riz Ahmed as Ruben Stone, a recovering heroin addict and metal drummer who experiences hearing loss. When his condition worsens, he puts his music career on hold, leaves his girlfriend and bandmate (Olivia Cooke), and checks into a sober house for the deaf. It’s here where Ruben must learn to live with, not fix, his disability.
Ahmed’s been on my radar ever since 2014’s Nightcrawler. He showed his true potential in 2016’s The Night Of, which led to his Emmy win for Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie. Ahmed’s performance in Sound of Metal is right up there with The Night Of. Ahmed’s passion and struggle are on full display especially during the first two acts, when he struggles to accept his deafness. He’s a believable deaf person and recovering addict and encapsulates the film’s message that being deaf is a culture, not a disability. It’s a powerful performance that will go down as one of the year’s best.
Other News And Notes
– Netflix’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom premieres on Dec. 18. It will be an emotional time since it’s the first film to feature Chadwick Boseman since his tragic death this past summer. Boseman, along with his costar Viola Davis, will both be major contenders in the acting categories.
– I’m finally going to see Tenet since it hits VOD on Dec. 15. In a shitty year, to quote Kevin Malone…
One word is about to stir up the 2021 Oscars. Say it with me: Mank.
Mank Set To Be An Oscars Juggernaut
With the Oscar eligibility window pushed back to February 28, 2021, it’s safe to say we’re in the middle rounds in this fight for Academy Awards. If this is Round 5 or 6, then Mank just scored a knockdown.
The first round of reviews arrived this afternoon for Mank and to say they were anything but positive would be an understatement. I’m struggling to find a negative word, let alone an entirely negative review. Type “Mank Review” in your search engine and it will flood with adjectives for “great.”
Mank revolves around Herman J. Mankiewicz, played by Gary Oldman, and his battle with Orson Welles over the screenwriting credit for Citizen Kane. Mank was directed by David Fincher, who directs his first feature film since 2014’s Gone Girl, from a script written by Fincher’s father, the late Jack Fincher. Oldman stars alongside Amanda Seyfried, Charles Dance, Lily Collins, Arliss Howard, and Tom Burke.
Mank hits all the right notes in terms of films that are typically rewarded by the Academy. It’s a black and white movie about the film industry in Old Hollywood from a well-respected director and accomplished cast. If the Academy Awards were a game of Texas Hold’Em and Mank came to the table, Mank would be sitting on a pair of Kings. Frankly, all you had to tell me was “David Fincher’s first movie since Gone Girl” and I was in.
Without guessing winners, the best bet you can make for the 2021 Oscars is that Mank will lead the field with the most nominations. I’m counting at least eight automatic nominations and honestly, that’s on the low side.
Mank Nomination Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director (Fincher)
Best Actor (Oldman)
Best Supporting Actress (Seyfried)
Best Supporting Actor (Dance)
Best Orginal Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Production Design
Best Sound
If you can’t count, that’s 12 nominations, which would easily make it the nomination leader. Thankfully, consumers won’t have to wait much longer as Mank will stream on Netflix on December 4.
One Night In Miami Oscar Campaign
Mank may have made a statement in the middle rounds, but One Night In Miami will look to come on strong in the 11th round. Regina King’s directorial debut portrays the fictionalized meeting between Malcom X (Kingsley Ben-Adir), Jim Brown (Aldis Hodge), Cassius Clay (Eli Goree), and Leslie Odom Jr. (Sam Cooke). One Night In Miami premiered to strong reviews at TIFF and King will be in the running for a Best Directing nomination.
With four actors positioning for acting nominations, Amazon Studios confirmed where they will campaign all four men. Kingsley Ben-Adir and Eli Goree will be entered as lead actors while Aldis Hodge and Leslie Odom Jr. will run in supporting. Out of the four actors, Odom should have the best chance for a nomination thanks to his previous accomplishments in the Emmys, Grammys, and Tonys.
One Night In Miami opens in theaters on Christmas and streams on Amazon Prime Video on January 15, 2021.
Other News And Notes
– I still haven’t seen Tenet. However, there is good news on the horizon.
Christopher Nolan's TENET will arrive on 4K, Blu Ray, DVD and Digital on December 15 pic.twitter.com/boxSbleYNK
It’s early in the race, but two frontrunners have already emerged in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress for the 2021 Oscars.
Chadwick Boseman And Glenn Close Jump Out To Early Leads
Here is my first of many predictions about the 2021 Oscars.
Both Chadwick Boseman and Glenn Close will win Oscars at the 2021 ceremony.
First, there’s the late Boseman, who tragically passed away this past August after a long battle with colon cancer. The actor was a king, both on and off the screen. Imagine working long and excruciating days on films like Black Panther, The Avenger sequels, and Da 5 Bloods while undergoing chemotherapy and other cancer treatments. How many of us would give up? Frankly, a lot of us would including myself, but not Boseman. He was a special breed and truly a selfless individual. May he rest in power.
For the 2021 Oscars, Boseman was drawing major buzz for Best Supporting Actor in Netflix’s upcoming film, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which premieres on Dec. 18. After his death, the buzz skyrocketed as Boseman went straight to the top of the list in the supporting actor category. That all changed this week when Netflix announced their campaign to run Boseman for lead actor.
Netflix will campaign Chadwick Boseman for a lead actor Oscar nom in 'Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom'
If he wins he would join Heath Ledger and Peter Finch as the only posthumous acting winners
The strategist in me said, “Why would Netflix push Boseman in a tough best acting field instead of dominating the supporting category?” It took me less than a minute before the light bulb went off.
Two words: double nominee.
Boseman gave another performance in a Netflix movie that has gained awards buzz. I’m talking about Da 5 Bloods, where he played the undeniable “Stormin'” Norman. With the decision to run Boseman for Best Actor in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the door has opened for a supporting nomination for Da 5 Bloods.
It’s definitely an ambitious plan from Netflix and at the very least, Boseman will receive a nomination for one of his performances. Those who have seen Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have raved over Boseman’s final outing.
Chadwick Boseman will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Actor, now that Netflix has officially decided to campaign him as a lead performer for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM. He’s so good in his final film performance that it feels undeniable.
Chadwick is going to win an Oscar. My initial thought was to put him in Supporting for MA RAINEY. Now, this opens the door to become a double nominee as he’ll go supporting for DA 5 BLOODS. He deserves all of the recognition in the world. https://t.co/daJsQuzuAw
Speaking of Oscar victories, you know who hasn’t won an Oscar yet? Glenn Close. Unfortunately, Close’s relationship with the Oscars can be explained with one phrase, “Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.” 7 nominations, 0 wins.
It’s not like Close lost to scrubs every year. Jessica Lange, Jodie Foster, and Meryl Streep are three of the most accomplished actresses ever. However, if I had to switch up one result, it would be 1988 when Close should’ve won for Fatal Attraction. Before Cher and her fans hurt me, I will say that Cher should’ve been nominated and won for Mask.
It’s a shame Close is Oscar-less, but I believe she’s finally going to win gold in the supporting category for Hillbilly Elegy, a film about the American dream and societal problems through the eyes of an Appalachian family. Close will play Mamaw Vance, the grandmother of J.D. Vance, who wrote the memoir that served as the film’s inspiration. The Oscars typically honor films that are based on real-life events and reward actors who make complete physical transformations. Hillbilly Elegy and Closecheck off both boxes.
Glenn Close and Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy / Netflix
It’s ironic that the actress who beat Close in 2019, Olivia Colman, is also her toughest competition in 2021 as Colman will run in the supporting category for her role in The Father. Expect another close (I couldn’t help myself with this pun) race.
I really like both actresses, but I’d venture to say that Colman would be ok with Close winning this time around. I would be happy with this result, too.
Other News And Notes
-From what I’ve seen and read, the Best Picture frontrunner as of October 23 is Nomadland.
–Mank is coming. I don’t see a world where the Academy hates Mank. Nominations in Best Picture, Best Director for David Fincher, Best Actor for Gary Oldman seem inevitable.
-Netflix, Netflix, and more Netflix. This will be the year the streaming service receives the most nominations in their company’s history. Now, the pressure is on to win in the major categories.
-I still haven’t seen Tenet.
Which Chadwick Boseman and Glenn Close win Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
Say goodbye to the Emmys and say hello to the Oscars! Even though the Oscars won’t air until April 2021, the last quarter of 2020 signals the start of the Oscar season. Even in a year full of delays, postponements, and a pandemic, studios are still looking to acquire films at major festivals to bolster their awards’ chances. There’s one major studio that has stood above the rest and we all know who it is. Is This The Year Netflix Wins Best Picture?
Is This The Year Netflix Wins Best Picture?
2020 has been the year from hell for most major studios. Giant tentople franchises like Wonder Woman and James Bond have moved their release dates to the end of the year. Marvel and The Fast and Furious punted in 2020 and moved their major releases to 2021. If there’s one major studio that could survive a pandemic, it’s Netflix. Not only has Netflix survived, but it’s thrived beyond belief.
This past week, two major dominoes fell in the Best Picture race. First, West Side Story, one of the most anticipated films of 2020, was pushed back an entire year from Dec. 2020 to Dec. 2021. The iconic musical from Steven Spielberg, which was set to be a frontrunner for Best Picture, now moves to the 2022 Oscars.
When one door closes, another door opens, and in comes Aaron Sorkin. The second major domino revolves around Sorkin’s new film, The Trial of the Chicago 7, which released its first trailer this past week. Originally scheduled for a theatrical release from Paramount, the Chicago 7 was sold to Netflix for over $50 million and now, will be released in select theaters on September 25 before debuting on the streaming service on October 16. The film centers around the famous Chicago Seven, who led protests during the 1968 Democratic Convention. The cast is stacked and includes Oscar-winners Eddie Redmayne and Mark Rylance as well as recent Emmy-winners Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jeremy Strong.
All you have to say is “Aaron Sorkin wrote a courtroom drama” and this film would be up for awards. From A Few Good Men to The West Wing, the film and television academies love Sorkin in the courtroom. Critics agree as the first wave of reviews has been overwhelmingly positive with Richard Roeper calling it an “instant classic.” In terms of 2021 Oscars, nominations in Best Picture and Best Orginal Screenplay are automatic. Best Director for Sorkin also seems likely. In the acting categories, depending on how Netflix possessions each actor, Sacha Baron Cohen, Redmayne, Rylance, Abdul-Mateen II, and Strong will be considered in either Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor.
The Trial of the Chicago Seven is only one of the Oscar-hopeful films that Netflix has at its disposal. There is a world where Netflix could receive five Best Picture nominations with five established and well-respected directors behind each film. Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloodswill be in the mix due to its critical acclaim. Later this year, Netflix will release Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom from George C. Wolfe, Hillbilly Elegy from Ron Howard, and Mank from David Fincher, who hasn’t made a feature film since 2014’s Gone Girl. If there’s ever a time for Netlfix to win Best Picture, it’s this year.
Other News And Notes
-There have only been five female directors to receive a nomination for Best Director and only one, Kathryn Bigelow, has won the award. At the 2021 Oscars, there could be not one, but two women nominated for Best Director. They are Chloe Zhao for Nomadland and Regina King for One Night in Miami. Nomadland, based on the novel about a woman traveling as a modern-day nomad starring Frances McDormand, recently won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. The last three films to win that prize were Joker, Roma, and The Shape of Water. All three films were nominated for Best Picture and Best Director (Alfonso Cuarón and Guillermo del Toro won Best Director for Roma and The Shape of Water, respectively) so history is on Zhao’s side.
The other film, Regina King’s One Night in Miami, revolves around a fictional meeting between Jim Brown, Malcolm X, Cassius Clay, and Sam Cooke in a Miami hotel room in 1964. The film premiered to positive reviews, praising King’s directorial debut. King, an Oscar and Emmy winner, would be the first black female to be nominated for Best Director.
-Speaking of Netflix, the streaming service acquired Pieces of a Woman, a drama about a couple who must face their midwife after she loses their baby and faces criminal negligence. The performance that drew the most buzz was from Vanessa Kirby, who plays the grieving mother that must navigate fractured relationships with her husband, mother, and midwife. Kirby’s performances have been hailed the “performance of her career” by Variety. Expect a huge campaign from Netflix to elevate Kirby into the Best Actress category.
-Will I ever see Tenet?
Which film from Netflix has the best chance of winning Best Picture? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
2021 Oscars? It’s never too early! Going into the 2020 Oscars, I expected all of the favorites to win. 1917 and Sam Mendes would win Best Picture and Best Director, respectively. Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern would win in their respective acting categories. I would have been fine with all of those decisions.
Hearing “Parasite” still gives me goosebumps. Parasite not only won Best Picture, Best Orginal Screenplay, and Best International Feature, but Bong Joon-ho shocked the world when he won Best Director. I’m here to firmly state that Parasite is the real deal. It was my favorite movie of 2019 and it deserved every major award and then some.
Slowly but surely, I'm creating my Top 10 movies of 2019. That being said, I guarantee that Parasite will be in my Top 3. Not only one of the movies films of the year, but it will eventually go down as one of the best films of the decade. #Parasite
That being said, it’s time to look ahead to the 2021 Oscars. It may be considered “downtime” for award season movies, but I’m always looking towards what’s on the horizon. I did this same article last year and my predictions were rocky, to say the least. It’s bad, but I’ve definitely seen worse. Here were my predictions in Feb. 2019.
*Did not pick supporting categories
After I clean my mouth of vomit from those predictions, I’ll move on. So what’s on tap for 2020 that we could see at the 2021 Oscars? Three heavy hitters come right to mind: Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune. Matt Damon and Ben Affleck reunite as writers for the first time since Good Will Hunting in The Last Duel. Guillermo del Toro should be releasing his followup to the Oscar-winning The Shape of Water. Sofia Coppola, Wes Anderson, Spike Lee, David Fincher, and Aaron Sorkin all have films coming out in 2021. A lot can change from now until next February. However, here are my way-too-early (and reckless) predictions for the 2021 Oscars.
Best Picture
Dune
The French Dispatch
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
Nightmare Alley
Nomadland
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Untitled David O. Russell film
West Side Story
Best Actor
Adam Driver, The Last Duel
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Christian Bale, Untitled David O. Russell film
Denzel Washington, Macbeth
Gary Oldman, Mank
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchet, Nightmare Alley
Frances McDormand, Macbeth
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (If this movie gets positive reviews, expect a HUGE campaign for Close for Best Supporting Actress. Once again, if the movie is well-received by critics, Close will finally win an Oscar.)
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Octavia Spencer, The Witches
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
David O. Russell, Untitled film
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
If I get more than 5 of these predictions right, I’ll be happy. See you next February.
Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @danny_giro.
– Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as Levee Green
