Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11: No Margin for Error

College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11

There has been no more unbiased ranking out there than the Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11. I get criticized from time to time by people who only want to see the college football world through the lens of the AP Poll. However, if you go back and look at the rankings for each week, I guarantee you would now agree that I have been 100% right and accurate along the way.

The Unafraid Show College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11 are not going to look like the AP Poll. Open your eyes to see a different view of evaluating the top 10. Most polls including the College Football Playoff Committee give college blueblood teams a massive “benefit of the doubt.” I don’t believe in that. The college football top 10 teams are ranked by the correct criteria: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. Only the games have played matter.

I re-rank the top 10 every week from scratch. The previous week’s rankings do not factor into the next week. So, the rankings will change, sometimes drastically every week because we will have new information.

Before we get to College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11, you can reference the Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings for Week 10.

Leave a comment or shoot an email: ImMad@unafraidshow.com… Yes, that is the real email address.

1.  Alabama (9-0) Last Week: #2

Alabama is the class of the SEC and College Football. After week 10 I believe we can all agree that Bama is a juggernaut and the rest of the SEC is just like every other conference. Anyone can get beat on any given Saturday (with Clemson as the exception).

Alabama heard all the people saying they would to lose to LSU and told them to have a seat and be quiet. The Crimson Tide’s schedule has been extremely light this season. Playing tougher teams multiple weeks in a week out does fatigue a team mentally and physically. And Alabama has not experienced that, but I’m not sure it would have mattered who they played this season.

It feels like a foregone conclusion that the Crimson Tide will win the National Championship, but remember the New England Patriots looked unbeatable at 18-0, then proceeded to lose the Super Bowl. So, you never know.

2. Clemson (9-0) Last Week: #1

This is the time of year that teams jockeying for playoff seeding are trying to make statements. Clemson clearly made a statement by unmercifully beating Florida State, NC State, and Louisville over the last three weeks.

Dabo Swinney made the correct move when he made Trevor Lawrence the starting quarterback. The Clemson offense has been more dynamic and consistent since then. Winning the ACC is a foregone conclusion for the Tigers. Gearing up for what feels like an inevitable matchup with Alabama for the title has to be priority number one.

3. Notre Dame (9-0) Last Week: #3

If Notre Dame wins their last three games, there is NO chance they get left out of the playoffs. Oklahoma, Michigan, Washington State, West Virginia, Ohio State, and Georgia all have to be rooting for the Fighting Irish to drop a game. Ian Book continues his solid play and feels like the new prototype college quarterback. He is a terrific passer, but also adds a lot of value extending playing and picking up first downs with his legs.

In an interview on College Football GameDay head coach, Brian Kelly was already talking about the playoffs and a potential rematch with Alabama. I have to wonder if Kelly and his team could be looking past games against Florida State, Syracuse, and USC.

4. Michigan (8-1) Last Week: #6

I officially believe in Michigan. The Wolverines did horrible things to Penn State. Their defense is smothering, and unquestionably the #1 defense in the nation. This defense could absolutely slow Alabama’s offense down. The only question is will their offense be able to produce against Bama’s notoriously stingy defense.

The “eye test” tells me that Michigan is a better team than Notre Dame, at this point. However, the fact that Notre Dame beat Michigan week one cannot be ignored. If it came down to the last playoff spot could anyone in good conscience put Michigan over an undefeated Notre Dame?

5. Oklahoma (8-1) Last Week: #5

We have learned two things about Oklahoma this season. Their offense is unstoppable, and their defense can’t stop nosebleed most times. Unless the Sooners lose another game, they will 100% be in the top four of the CFB Playoffs. Chaos always ensues in November and the Sooners will be the beneficiary. It will be interesting to see if a team like Michigan or Alabama who is so good defensively can stop the most potent offense in college football.

Kyler Murray has to be a Heisman Finalist and could possibly win the award if he has more heroics over the last month of the season. Oklahoma is what Washington State would be with 4-5* athletes all over the place, except Washington State plays better defense.

6. Georgia (8-1) Last Week: 7

We have to give Georgia credit for wins against Florida and Kentucky though neither team is nearly as good as the hype that surrounded them. The Bulldogs are in a tight spot when it comes to making the College Football Playoffs. They already have one loss and have to play Alabama in the SEC championship. Anything but a win will keep them out of the top 4, but a New Years Six bowl is surely in Georgia’s favor.

The Bulldogs only need to guard against a let down versus Auburn or Georgia Tech over the next three weeks.

7. Washington State (8-1) Last Week: 9

Something special is brewing in Pullman, Washington. Mike Leach has turned one of the worst college football teams into a playoff contender. No one expected their success after they lost their starting quarterback Tyler Hilinski to suicide during the offseason. However, graduate transfer Gardener Minshew II has shown up and thrown for nearly 400 yards per game.

If one of nations top defenses cannot stop the Cougars, they should be able to finish their Pac-12 schedule unscathed.

8. West Virginia (7-1) Last Week: #NR

It seems Will Grier and the Mountaineers are peeks at the right time. They had ugly games against Kansas and Iowa State in the middle of the season, but have bounced back nicely. We appear to be headed for an Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Big 12 championship game. Dana Holgorsen has his opportunity to deliver on the expectations of West Virginia fans if he can get 3 more wins out of his team.

Just like every other Big 12 team, the only question about this team is their defense. Can they get enough stops against teams that want to run the football to win in the playoffs?

9. Central Florida (8-0) Last Week: #8

Central Florida is the Rodney Dangerfield of college football. They do good things but get no respect. The Knights have won 21 straight football games going back to last season, but have no hope of making the top four. Their schedule has not been good, but until last week had been better than Alabama and other teams in the top 12.

Central Florida is not doing themselves any favors by playing close games against Memphis and Temple. Neither of those teams is as bad as some of the cupcakes on other top 10 teams’ schedule. However, the other teams in the Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 11 have been dominating their inferior competition.

10. Ohio State (8-1) Last Week: #10

The Buckeyes are sitting at 8-1, but they do not look good right now. They have struggled both offensively and defensively in three consecutive weeks against Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska. There is no lack of talent with this team, so their play of late has to be concerning for Ohio State fans. A one-loss Big Ten champion will likely end up in the College Football Playoffs, so there is still time for the Buckeyes to pull it together. Michigan is hot right now, and the last thing Ohio State wants is to be playing poorly heading into their most crucial game of the season.

Next Up:

LSU, Texas,

I know some of you are steaming mad right now because your team is ranked too low or is unranked. Take a breathe and realize that your fandom is causing irrational thoughts. The College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9 is accurate, unbiased, and unafraid.

Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 6: Crushing the Competition

College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 6

Best weekend of college football this year.

There were multiple quality games and near upsets on at every time slot. College Football is the only sport that can show you what it’s like to simultaneously feel alive and like you want to die! That is why is it is by far the greatest sport there is! Before we get to College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 6, you can reference the Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings for Week 5.

The two most frustrating parts of being a college football fan are the biased polls and the terrible non-conference schedules. I cannot change the schedules but I can rank the college football top 10 teams by the correct criteria: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. Most polls including the College Football Playoff Committee give college blueblood teams a massive “benefit of the doubt.”  How else can you explain Georgia at #2 when they haven’t played anyone, or Wisconsin ranking above Cal and BYU before this week? I don’t believe in that. The best teams who play the best schedules will always be ranked highest. Only the games that have been played matter. I re-rank the top 10 every week from scratch. The previous week’s rankings do not factor into the next week. So, the rankings will change every week as more games are played.

1.  Alabama (5-0)

Alabama won a game with their starting quarterback Tua Tagoviloa only attempting 8 passes. I know it was only Louisianna, but that is still impressive. Teams typically move down in the College Football Top 10 Rankings when their schedule is not particularly impressive. But, Alabama combats their schedule with an unmatched dominance. It will be interesting to see how the 2018 Crimson Tide respond when someone puts up a fight. We may have to wait till November when they get LSU and Auburn.

2. Notre Dame (5-0)

A quarterback change has taken Notre Dame from a really good football team to a playoff contender. Brandon Wimbush could only beat you with his legs. Ian Book can beat you with arm and legs. Against Stanford, he regularly extended plays and escaped sacks to complete passes for 3rd down conversions. The Notre Dame defense is fast and extremely physical. This is not your typical Fighting Irish team that is overrated. Dominant wins over Michigan and Stanford make them an easy choice at #2 in the College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 6.

3. LSU (5-0)

LSU keeps piling up wins. They didn’t beat Ole Miss as bad as Alabama did, but Joe Burrow and company still showed offensive dominance. Burrow threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and added another 92 yards and a touchdown on the ground. I cannot remember the last time LSU had a dynamic passer at quarterback who could also hurt you with his legs. I am salivating thinking about their matchup against Georgia in two weeks. They are one of the few SEC teams that have played a quality schedule so far.

4. Ohio State (5-0)

Penn State had the game in sewed up, but Ohio State pried a victory from the jaws of defeat. Dwyane Haskins stats looked good again, but the truth is in the film. The majority of his 270 pass yards came off screens to backs and wide receivers. The Ohio State vs. Penn State game felt a lot like the Stanford vs. Oregon game last week. The team who dominated and looked better lost the game. However, there are no moral victories in sports. The Buckeyes won, so they reap the rewards in the College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 6.

5. Oklahoma (5-0)

Kyler Murray is the Black Doug Flutie. He is small, but he can play! He and Oklahoma bounced back from that narrow escape against Army with an offensive explosion. Murray finished with 432 yards passing and 8 total touchdowns (1rush) against Baylor. I truly believe Oklahoma’s offense is more explosive this year than last year with Baker Mayfield. Most people expect Murray to hang his cleats up and play in the MLB. Oklahoma has the best receiving corps in the country.  I would love to watch Alabama try and stop this offense.

6. Clemson (5-0)

The Tigers are breathing a sigh of relief. Kelly Bryant decides to transfer, and Trevor Lawrence gets hurt while they are down to Syracuse. All signs pointed to a loss for Clemson. But, Dabo Swinney cashed in all his good Karma from doing the right thing for Kelly Bryant, and they got the win. You are always rewarded in life for doing the right things. Every top team faces a couple of gut-check games each season, and this was one for Clemson.

This team is good, but they have not been nearly as dominant this season as I expected.

7. Washington (4-1)

The Huskies has the best defense in the nation not named Alabama. Washington has stepped up their game since their close week 1 loss to Auburn. This week the Huskies undressed BYU, who beat a highly regarded Wisconsin team. It was a dominant performance. Jake Browning is real close to shutting me up about his inconsistent play against good teams. Their matchup against Oregon in two weeks will be an epic showdown.

8. Georgia (5-0)

New week, weak opponent, Georgia Wins. Rinse. Repeat. Georgia has played no teams currently ranked in the top 25. Unless Georgia starts demonstrating some Alabama-like dominance, it will be tough to rank them as higher until they get to the heart of their schedule. Please don’t try to tell me the South Carolina game was a good game. They just got beat up by Kentucky. I believe the Bulldogs could be a playoff team, but they will need to get more production out of Fromm or Fields at quarterback.

9. Auburn (4-1)

It took Auburn all four quarters to put So. Miss away. They were only able to rush for 96 yards on 36 attempts. The win was extremely unimpressive. War Eagle needs to figure out how to get their running game on track, or they will get tripped up against Miss State, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M in the next month. The only way the Tigers make the College Football Playoffs is if they do so on the back of Jared Stidham.

10. West Virginia (4-0)

500 yards of total offense seems to be the norm for West Virginia in 2018. Will Grier will find himself a finalist for the Heisman if he keeps playing like this. We still don’t know a lot about the Mountaineers defense. Their schedule has been relatively light so far, but their dominance has them narrowly ahead of the teams Next Up. Dana Holgorsen has a shot to get West Virginia over the hump in the Big 12 this year.

Next Up:

Michigan, UCF, Texas, Oregon, Penn State

I know some of you are steaming mad right now because your team is ranked too low or is unranked. Take a breathe and realize that your fandom is causing irrational thoughts. Leave a comment or shoot an email: ImMad@unafraidshow.com… Yes, that is the real email address.

Schedules Make it Easy For the SEC to Make the College Football Playoff

College Football Playoffs Schedule Scam

Schedules are the biggest scam in college football. The College Football Playoff Ponzi scheme, and the SEC is Bernie Madoff, same as the BCS was. All the Power 5 conferences do the work, but the SEC collects the rewards. The SEC (Bama in particular) deserves credit for winning the tournament, but often as a whole conference is severely overrated. When the CFB Playoff was formed we were told teams would be ranked based upon schedule quality and quality of wins over being undefeated. This has not been true. The curtain has to be lifted so fans can watch the season with open eyes. Isn’t it time that fans get the games we want to see and the undeniable four best teams in the playoff games? We are all being had by ridiculous schedules that manipulate who makes it to the playoff. Teams only get 12 guaranteed games per season. So why on earth should teams be rewarded for playing 3 non-competitive non-conference games per year?? Nobody really wants to pay to leave games at halftime. In 2018, Alabama and Georgia are were top 5 teams but were in the top 10 for easiest non-conference schedules. As fans, we spend our time, hard earned money, and devote our Fall lives to college football. We should we never waste an entire Saturday watching bad games!

College Football Committee Can’t Do Its Job Properly

The notion that the College Football Playoff Committee can accurately and fairly decipher who the top four teams in the country are is outrageous. How can they, when these schedules give us so few quality common opponents between conferences? This is the committee’s fault though. We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference or play competitive non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be frustrated with the quality of the games we get. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way to be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.

The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games. That means everyone else can do it as well.

I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:

College Football Playoffs Ponzi Scheme

You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven-loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses mean an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, let’s compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.

If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half-game less than all other conferences.

In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.

One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in-conference. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.

Now that we are all on the same page regarding wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake,” which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes.” This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.

Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:

“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”

-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2017)

The Solution

  1. Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
  2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
  3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.

There are two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:

  1. 9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
  2. 8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.

Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

Am I Wrighster or am I wrong?

College Football Playoff: The Bullshit Edition!

 

The College Football Playoffs teams were announced this morning and the Top 4 are:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
As we see there is one ACC team (Clemson), one Big XII team (Oklahoma), and two SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama). This leaves the Pac-12 and Big 10 completely out of the playoffs. The ACC and SEC have a systematic advantage in the College Football Playoffs and we the fans are getting screwed. College Football Playoff Committee screwed up putting Alabama in the top 4. They’ve set college football back at least 10 years.
We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference and don’t play good non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be disgusted. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way you should be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.
The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games.
If you have a weak schedule, you should at the very least have to win your conference to get in the top four. If you’re as good as everybody “thinks” you are, then you should have won your conference! However, the committee clearly doesn’t value those things as highly as they should. This is not a diss to Alabama, but a diss to the broken system of college football. The fans continuously get screwed, and will continue to get screwed until the schedule imbalance is fixed. The worst part about it is that fans sit up and co-sign this nonsense and don’t demand better.

I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:
You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses means an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could possibly beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, lets compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.
If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half game less than all other conferences.
In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.
One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in conference. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.
Now that we are all on the same page in terms of wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake”, which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes”. This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.
I contend that the committee absolutely blew it for college football by putting Alabama in the playoffs. They confirmed that conference championships and schedules don’t matter. This whole system is broken and, in order to fix it, we have to break it again. It stinks for college football fans and gives the SEC and ACC have a systematic advantage while screwing over the Pac-12 and the Big X.
Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:
“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”
-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2018)
So here’s my solution:
1. Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.
I am also open to two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:
1. 9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
2. 8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.
Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier.

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

College Football Playoffs: The Bullshit Edition

The College Football Playoffs teams were announced this morning and the Top 4 are:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
As we see there is one ACC team (Clemson), one Big XII team (Oklahoma), and two SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama). This leaves the Pac-12 and Big 10 completely out of the playoffs. The ACC and SEC have a systematic advantage in the College Football Playoffs and we the fans are getting screwed. College Football Playoff Committee screwed up putting Alabama in the top 4. They’ve set college football back at least 10 years.
We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference and don’t play good non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be disgusted. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way you should be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.
The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games.
If you have a weak schedule, you should at the very least have to win your conference to get in the top four. If you’re as good as everybody “thinks” you are, then you should have won your conference! However, the committee clearly doesn’t value those things as highly as they should. This is not a diss to Alabama, but a diss to the broken system of college football. The fans continuously get screwed and will continue to get screwed until the schedule imbalance is fixed. The worst part about it is that fans sit up and co-sign this nonsense and don’t demand better.
I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:

You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven-loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses mean an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could possibly beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, let’s compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.
If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half-game less than all other conferences.
In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.
One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in conference play. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.
Now that we are all on the same page in terms of wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake”, which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes”. This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.
I contend that the committee absolutely blew it for college football by putting Alabama in the playoffs. They confirmed that conference championships and schedules don’t matter. This whole system is broken and, in order to fix it, we have to break it again. It stinks for college football fans and gives the SEC and ACC have a systematic advantage while screwing over the Pac-12 and the Big X.
Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:
“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”
-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2018)
So here’s my solution:
1   1.  Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
2   2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
     3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.
I am also open to two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:
1   1.  9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
    2.   8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.
Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier.

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

College Football Playoff Top 10 and Scenarios: Party Crashers Have Arrived

 
A wild and crazy Week 13 is in the books. The party crashers (Auburn, USC, TCU, Ohio State) have officially showed up to the party. Let the debates begin. The College Football Playoff committee nearly has a mess on its hands. This mess is fun, however, it could be more easily sorted out if the teams scheduled more than one good non-conference game. The clamoring for an eight-team playoff is about to heat up. I really hope it happens as soon as the current College Football Playoff contract is up. It is likely that we finally see at least one two-loss team in the playoff ahead of one-loss teams. I will break down the scenario for every team and conference to get in the playoff. Let’s start with the baseline of what I am projecting the committee’s top 10 to look like on Tuesday:
1.          Clemson
2.          Oklahoma
3.          Auburn
4.           Wisconsin
5.           Georgia
6.           Alabama
7.           Ohio State
8.           USC
9.           Miami
10.      TCU
11.      Penn State
The biggest question that everyone has is how does the committee look at Alabama. Last year’s committee put Ohio State in the top four instead of Big 10 champion Penn State due to “strength of team”. Will they repeat the precedent set last year? When you look at the Crimson Tide’s schedule, they really only have two solid (LSU, Mississippi State) wins and no great wins. So the question is how will the committee value the one and two loss conference champions against Alabama who won’t even play for theirs.
SEC
There are still 3 teams alive: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia
Alabama Needs– TCU to beat Oklahoma, Wisconsin to beat Ohio State, and USC to lose to Stanford. It doesn’t matter who wins the SEC or ACC. The champion from those conferences is absolutely in the playoff. They need the committee to value them highly with the “eye test” and find it difficult to leave Nick Saban and Alabama out over a two-loss TCU or USC.
Auburn Needs– Win the SEC championship game vs Georgia and they are in. Pray the committee doesn’t screw you and put Alabama in.
Georgia Needs– Win the SEC championship game vs Auburn and they are in. Lose and they are behind multiple 2 loss teams and 1 loss Alabama.
BIG XII
Oklahoma Needs– Win the Big XII championship vs TCU and they are in.
TCU Needs– Wisconsin to beat Ohio State, USC lose to Stanford, Georgia to beat Auburn, and beat Oklahoma in the Big XII championship. They would be sitting at 2 losses after beating a Top 2 team. The ACC Champion does not affect them.
Big 10
Wisconsin and Ohio State are both still alive and the scenarios for them to get in the top four are pretty straight forward and reasonably likely
Wisconsin Needs– Beat Ohio State in the Big 10 championship and they are in, no questions asked.
If Wisconsin losses the Big 10 championship: Due to their weak schedule there aren’t enough scenarios to get them in the college football playoff if they lose.
Ohio State Needs– Beat Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship, Stanford beat USC, Oklahoma beat TCU, and Georgia to beat Auburn. Their only competition with that scenario would be Alabama, however, it will be up to the committee’s “eye” test. Alabama’s case would be much weaker it Georgia beats Auburn, who beat them.
If USC does not lose Ohio State could be in trouble. USC may get the nod to the college football playoff because their resume (Strength of Schedule, Top-40 wins, and Strength of record) is better.

If TCU wins the Big XII and USC loses that could get very interesting. I believe Ohio State would get the edge by the committee in this situation simply due to the fact that they are THE OHIO STATE and money talks in these situations.
ACC
Miami and Clemson Needs- Win the ACC championship game and they are in. The loser has two losses. There are no scenarios that the ACC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially one with two losses, so the recipe is simple, win and you are in, lose and you are out.
Though I believe the ACC champion is in I can imagine a weird, way out discussion that could happen if Miami is champion. There could be a debate about leaving the ACC out altogether for Alabama. Miami’s season is one game shorter due to the hurricane and after Notre Dame’s loss to Stanford, their win against the Fighting Irish holds less weight.
Pac-12
USC Needs– They need to win the Pac-12 championship game against Stanford in an impressive fashion, Georgia to beat Auburn, Oklahoma to beat TCU. The outcome of the ACC likely has no impact on USC because the loser of Miami vs Clemson will have two losses and will absolutely be behind every conference champion.
The scenarios for USC to get in the playoff are becoming more and more likely with every passing day.
Things I believe:
  1. More chaos will ensue.
  2. Alabama misses the Playoff
  3. Either two-loss Ohio State, USC, or TCU gets in the Playoff 
  4. Either two of this three misses the Playoff: Oklahoma, Clemson, Wisconsin
Send all your questions and comments to: UnafraidShow@gmail.com