Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference Football: The Failures of Larry Scott

USC v Fresno State football

Struggling to Beat a Non-Power 5 Conference

Remember, the Pac-12 is a Power 5 conference. Teams in a Power 5 conference should be able to routinely handle non-Power 5 conferences. However, time and time again, in Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference football games, the Pac-12 is struggling. MWC teams routinely give Pac-12 programs significant trouble. How can that be the case?

Recent History of The Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference

No, this isn’t just a recent problem because of Arizona and Hawaii. It goes beyond that. Since 2010 Pac-12 teams only have a 71.1% win-percentage against Mountain West Conference programs. Of the 64 wins and 26 losses against the Mountain West, the Pac-12 has won 11 bowl games. How many have they lost? 12. A sub-.500 record in bowl games against the MWC is inexcusable.

Against other Power 5 programs, the Mountain West has records of:

  • 5-7 against ACC 
  • 2-34 against Big-10 
  • 2-14 against Big-12 
  • 3-14 against SEC 

Overall, the ACC is the only conference with a worse record win percentage against Mountain West Conference teams. However, that is only out of 12 games. That sample size is much smaller and includes one bowl. Against all the other Power 5 conferences, the Mountain West is a small problem. So why does the Pac-12 struggle?

Money Matters

Should Larry Scott be blamed for Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference struggles? Yes. When Larry Scott took over as the Pac-12’s commissioner, he made a very bold decision: to remove Pac-12 partnerships with major networks. Taking a bet on the Pac-12’s future success, it retained 100-percent ownership of media rights. But, much different than Larry Scott predicted, this didn’t cause the success promised.

Though the Pac-12 did grow its revenue from $100 million to $500 million since 2009, conference revenue lags behind other Power 5 conferences. In per-school revenue, the conference is $20 million behind other power leagues. Turning away from cable and other media networks is a big issue. Pac-12 games aren’t readily available around the country. Other Power 5 games are. While other conferences are reaping the rewards of growing revenue, Larry Scott’s Pac-12 is hitting a wall. 

Money isn’t everything, but it sure helps. Revenue is used for hiring coaches and staff, building and maintaining facilities, and most importantly: recruiting talent. Because of the lack of financial support, the Pac-12 has performed dreadfully in football. And not just in Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference football games. The conference was only 3.53 points better than the average FBS team in 2018-2019, which was the lowest for any Power 5 conference in six years. Additionally, the Pac-12 holds three of the worst seven seasons in points better than the average FBS team. Moreover, only 2 of the 20 College Football Playoff teams came from the Pac-12. Also, the Pac-12 hasn’t had a national champion since the incredible 2003 and 2004 USC programs. 

It’s no wonder the biggest taunt against the Pac-12 is “The Pac-12 sucks.”

The Mountain West Conference is Rising

In recent years, Mountain West Conference football is on the rise. Even though the conference lost some of their better programs like TCU, BYU and Utah, they’ve regained prominence. With their upsurge in production, 2017 and 2018 were the MWC’s two best years in S&P+ ratings. 

Also, it is important to note the hot start the Mountain West Conference got off to in 2019. UNR beat Purdue, Boise State beat Florida State, Hawaii beat Arizona and Wyoming beat Missouri. Four upsets. Brilliant. Because of their growing success in football, the Mountain West Conference is capitalizing with new network deals. More money will likely make them more competitive.

No, the Mountain West Conference Isn’t Better than the Pac-12

While it is important to understand the growing success of the Mountain West Conference and the plateau the Pac-12 reached, the Pac-12 is still better than the Mountain West Conference. Most are not calling for the Pac-12 and Mountain West Conferences to switch places. Remember that even with their struggles, the Pac-12 still wins most of the time. In Pac-12 vs Mountain West Conference games, the Pac-12 programs wins 71.1-percent of games. 

Instead, many argue that the Mountain West Conference should become part of a Power 6. If the Mountain West Conference continues to stay competitive against Power 5 teams, this should be considered. However, Larry Scott continues to hold the Pac-12 back from financial success, the Pac-12 will slip. It is completely possible for the Mountain West Conference football becoming an equal to the Pac-12 in 10 years. 

Bottom line, we need Larry Scott and the Pac-12 to change things.

Arizona Loses, Pac-12 Power Rankings, Larry Scott Rumors, Miller Moss Interview, Andrew Luck

Pac-12 Apostles Ep 5 Pac-12 Podcast college Football

On the Pac-12 Apostles Ep 5 podcast, George Wrighster and Ralph Amsden are over the moon about the start of college football season. The opening game in the Pac-12 was a zero week game between the Arizona Wildcats and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. George and Ralph break down Arizona’s loss. All the Apostles know that Ralph has a man-crush on Khalil Tate so he has some explaining to do about Arizona’s loss to Hawaii.

George and Ralph unveil their Pac-12 Football Preseason Power Rankings to start the season. They disagree on just about every team. Send us your Pac-12 Power Rankings to: immad@unafraidshow.com

There have been rumors swirling around about Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott being replaced before season’s end. Will this happen? If so, who would be the prime candidates to replace him? Ralph enlightens us about the behind the scene whispers.

Listen on any Podcast Platform: Anchor // Spotify // Apple Podcasts // PocketCasts // Google Play // Stitcher // RadioPublic

The Apostles discuss clips from an interview Ralph did with Pac-12 quarterback recruit Miller Moss (Bishop Alemany). He shed light on where he believes the best college football is played and how he will make his commitment decision.

5* recruit Justin Flowe’s bodyslam.

Finally, on Pac-12 Apostles Ep 5, George and Ralph discuss the shocking retirement of Andrew Luck and Doug Gottlieb’s tweet.

Subscribe and contribute to the new Pac-12 Sub-Reddit.

Check back every Monday and Thursday for new Episodes of the Pac-12 College Football Apostles Podcast.

UCF: CFB Playoffs Can Never Be Better than March Madness Until Cinderella Gets In

The College Football Playoffs committee’s failure to pick the University of Central Florida (UCF) for the second year in a row is proof that the tournament will never be as exciting as March Madness. Every year when March Madness begins fans are at the edge of their seats waiting to see what likely championship contender will fall prey to the tournament’s “Cinderella” team. For example, in last years tournament, the very unlikely University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) knocked off the University of Virginia. The emergence of a “Cinderella” team is a major part of what makes March Madness so exciting.  However, the College Football Playoffs (CFP) is unlikely to ever experience the excitement of a  “Cinderella” team. The committee’s failure to give UCF a bid in the tournament for two years is proof of this.

For the last two seasons, UCF has been unstoppable. UCF finished their 2017 and 2018 seasons undefeated for a combined 25-0 record. Despite having two perfect seasons and knocking off Auburn after they beat Alabama, UCF was not extended the opportunity to be the possible “Cinderella” team in the College Football Playoffs (CFP) either year. If UCF beats LSU in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30 they would have defeated the SEC elite in back to back seasons. With two perfect seasons, why is UCF being overlooked? The structure of the CFP is to blame.

Participants in the college football playoffs are chosen by the CFP committee.  The committee considers a number of factors. Those factors are not favorable to teams, like UCF, who are not in Power Five conferences. Accordingly, the CFP structure does not allow a team such as UCF to be eligible for the tournament no matter how perfect their season. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that the CFP will ever experience the excitement of a “Cinderella” team swooping through the tournament and upsetting the most likely championship contender. This is precisely why the College Football Playoffs needs to be expanded to include more teams.

College Football Playoffs Structure Neglects Non-Power Five Schools

General success during the football season does not equate to automatic CFP eligibility – obviously. The CFP committee considers several factors in addition to on-field performance.  The committee considers the number of games lost, the point spread in games, and the strength of each schools schedule. The strength of the schedule is judged based on the teams each school faces. Schools with tougher schedules are given more weight during CFP selections.

In most cases, schools in the Power Five conferences are considered to be the tougher schools. Due to this, schools that are not in Power Five conferences, like UCF,  are unlikely to get a real chance at the CFP. Group of Five schools, such as UCF,  find it difficult to schedule games with Power Five schools.  The lack of such games on the schedule makes it extremely difficult for Group of Five schools to clinch a spot in the CFP. This is exactly where UCF fell short in the CFP considerations.  A substantial amount of UCF’s victories were not against what is considered a “strong” school.

Group of Five Schools Must Face the “Right” Power Five School

It is not sufficient for a Group of Five School to face just any Power Five school. The school must face the “right” Power Five school.  This is also evidenced by UCF.  Over their last two seasons, UCF successfully faced the University of Maryland of the Big 10 and the University of Pittsburgh of the ACC.  However, these games were not enough to give UCF a leg up in the strength of schedule category.

Some may argue that UCF should have been given serious consideration by the CFP committee for the 2018 CFP based on their win against Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl.  Auburn beat Alabama in last year’s SEC championship.  Alabama went on to win the CFP last year. Accordingly, some argued that UCF could possibly be defending the CFP title this year. Unfortunately, the fact that UCF defeated Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl had no bearing on the CFP committee’s considerations in 2018.

However, that did not stop fans from fantasizing about what would have happened if UCF had been given their due. Some fans made the logical leap that UCF may have defeated Alabama in the CFP if given the opportunity. Some UCF fans went as far as to attempt to bait Alabama into facing UCF to settle the debate regarding who is the true national champion. As exciting as that game would be, it will probably never happen.

Since Such a Match-up is Unlikely to Happen, the CFP will Never be as Exciting as March Madness

Since the CFP structure does not favor “underdog” teams, the tournament will always have a certain level of predictability. A tournament that is too predictable simply is not exciting. That is the beauty of the March Madness tournament, its unpredictable nature.  Yes, there are teams that are in it every year. Teams such as North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky are almost certain to make an appearance every year.  At the same time, any of those teams could get knocked off by the most unlikely opponent.

For example, in 2012 the underdog Norfolk State University beat Missouri.  Missouri was heavily slated to go to the Final Four and was unpredictably knocked off by the most unlikely opponent. Games like that are the excitement of the March Madness Tournament. The CFP is unlikely to ever know that excitement as long as underdogs like UCF are never given a chance to play on the CFP stage. For this reason, the CFP should be expanded to give more teams an opportunity to play on college football’s grandest stage. As long as the qualifications for CFP consideration remain, the CFP will never be as exciting as March Madness.

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11: Time to Close the Deal

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11

The Pac-12 is still not decided yet. The south division is wide open, and the north is a two-team race. There are still four teams with a shot to win the south. The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Oregon State (2-7)

(L) 21-38 USC

Oregon State returned to earth after beating Colorado the week before. The good news is they have a quarterback Jake Luton. The bad news is that Luton is a senior. They have a legit running back for the future in Jemar Jefferson who already has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a freshman. Oregon State didn’t win one Pac-12 game last year, so this season should be seen as an improvement… right?

11. Colorado (5-4) 

(L) 34-42 Arizona

The Buffaloes are spiraling out of control. Granted, they have been without their All-American wide receiver Lavishka Shenault. They started the season 5-0, but have dropped their last four against USC, Washington, Oregon State, and Arizona. Mike MacIntyre’s job will be in danger if Colorado drops their last three games against Washington State, Utah, and Cal. They have fallen from the top tier of the Pac-12 in rushing defense, rushing offense, 3rd down conversions, and sacks against.

10. UCLA (2-7) 

(L) 21-42 Oregon

Their 2-7 record doesn’t show improvement, but when you see the Bruins play, it is clear their team is on the rise. They have found a running back in transfer Joshua Kelley. Their defense held Oregon’s offense in check for three quarters. The offensive line is blocking better and Chip Kelly is getting his college football playcalling legs back under him. At this point, the Bruins goal for the rest of the season should be getting one more win. A win against USC would make the entire season worth it.

9. USC (5-4)

(W) 38-21 Oregon State

USC had been inconsistent rushing the football all season but had their best rushing output of the season against Oregon State. Clay Helton called the plays, and the Trojans finished with 332 yards on the ground against the worst rushing defense in the Pac-12. Can USC keep up the momentum through the rest of the season? Cal brings the best pass defense in the conference to the Coliseum this week. USC cannot go to sleep in this game. If they do, Cal will beat them to sleep.

The USC faithful are trying to be patient, but everyone knows that losses to Cal, UCLA, and Notre Dame will take things to DEFCON 1.

8. Cal (5-4)

(L) 13-19 Washington State

Cal suffered a brutal loss against Washington State. Justin Wilcox has his team playing phenomenal defense, but his offense continually lets him down. They had an opportunity to go up on Wazzu late in the 4th quarter, but sophomore quarterback Brandon McIlwain threw an interception in the end zone. Cal switched quarterbacks like they were running backs all game. I’m not sure why they won’t just stick with Chase Garbers who is the better passer. If Cal can manage at least their 23 point season average, they will have a chance to get bowl eligible.

7. Stanford (5-4)

(L) 23-27 Washington

David Shaw’s teams are usually a shoo-in for 10 wins. The “intellectual brutality” is missing in 2018. Stanford is still averaging under 100 yards per game rushing, only scoring 26.1 ppg, and 11th in the conference in total offense. The combination of K.J. Costello to JJ Arcega-Whiteside was only good for one catch for 11 yards against Washington. Costello finished the game throwing for 347 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Even with so many things going wrong in 2018 Stanford still has the opportunity to finish 8-4. Their last three games against Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA are all very winnable.

6. Utah (6-3)

(L) 20-38 Arizona State

Utah is in a bad spot right now. They were in control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 south and were just starting to get respect nationally. Then they lost their starting quarterback Tyler Huntley to a broken collarbone. The Utes backup quarterback Jason Shelley struggled to complete passes and move the football. Oregon makes their way to Salt Lake City this weekend. Only a fool would count the Utes out of this game because Oregon has struggled to take their game on the road.

5. Arizona State (5-4)

(W) 38-20 Utah

Herm Edwards has his team in prime position to get to a bowl game in year one. After back to back wins against USC and Utah the Sun Devils are in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 south. N’Keal Harry torched the Utah secondary. He finished with nine catches for 161 yards and three touchdowns. This was the kind of monster game we had been waiting all season to see. Arizona State has moved up to 4th in the conference with 435 yards of total offense per game. Their last three games are against UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona. If they can keep up the scoring, they have a legit shot to make the Pac-12 title game.

4. Washington (7-3)

(W) 27-23 Stanford

Huge win for the Huskies. Their defense and running game fueled the victory. The defense forced three turnovers and only allowed Stanford 77 rushing yards. Jake Browning and the Washington offense has continued to be underwhelming this season, but they did get their running game going. Myles Gaskin returned to the lineup and rushed for 148 yards. Despite all the negatives, the Huskies are a win against Oregon State and Washington State away from a birth in the Pac-12 Championship game.

3. Oregon (6-3)

(W) 42-21 UCLA

Oregon got a much-needed win at home against UCLA. Their defense and special teams led the way. The score would fool you into believing the Ducks offense is back where it needs to be; it’s not. However, the Ducks did flash some big play ability again with a long run from Tony Brooks-James and a 67-yard touchdown pass from Herbert to Mitchell.

Oregon heads to Utah to face Utes on Saturday. Offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo will need to have his offense firing on all cylinders if they are going to put up points against the Pac-12’s best defense.

2. Arizona (5-5)

(W) 42-34 Colorado

The “eye test” and stats tell me that Arizona is a middle of the road Pac-12 team, but they just continue to win games. The results say Arizona is the second hottest team in the conference right now. I have no clue how they keep winning with one of the worst defenses in the conference. They are ranked 10th against the run, 9th against the pass, and 10th in total defense. Khalil Tate being nearly healthy is a significant difference maker for the Wildcats. His legs help him extend plays, but the magic happens when he passes the ball. Arizona wide receivers make more acrobatic catches and draw more pass interference penalties than any team in the Pac-12.  They have a bye this week and will need one win at Washington State or against Arizona State to secure a bowl game.

I predicted Arizona would win the Pac-12 south, but I never fathomed it would look like this.

1. Washington State (8-1)

(W) 19-13 Cal

The Cougars are sitting at #8 in the College Football Playoffs. Something special is brewing in Pullman, Washington. Mike Leach has turned one of the worst college football teams into a playoff contender. No one expected their success after they lost their starting quarterback Tyler Hilinski to suicide during the offseason. However, graduate transfer Gardener Minshew II has shown up and thrown for nearly 400 yards per game.

If one of nations top defenses cannot stop the Cougars, they should be able to finish their Pac-12 schedule unscathed.

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via-USA TODAY

Rose Bowl– Ohio State vs. Washington State

Holiday– Iowa vs. Stanford

San Francisco– Northwestern vs. Utah

Sun– Boston College vs. Oregon

Alamo– Texas vs. Washington

Texas– Oklahoma State vs. Colorado

Independence– Duke vs. California

Cheez-It– Nevada vs. USC

Las Vegas– Utah State vs. Arizona State