CFB Preseason Polls are Worthless and Mess Up the Playoff Rankings

Preseason Polls hurt the ranking throughout the season SEC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12

Polls judge everything in college football. Teams are ranked from the preseason till after the national championship.

We all love to discuss the and debate when the College Football Preseason Polls come out. I even do them for Unafraid Show. However, I have come to find a major flaw in the polling system that ultimately affects the CFB Playoff. We all want the four (or eight in a perfect world) best teams playing for the championship. College Football Preseason polls make that nearly impossible to achieve because they distort the rankings and data for the rest of the season. Eleven of the top 25 teams in the 2018-19 Preseason AP Poll didn’t even finish ranked. In 2017, nine didn’t finish ranked. In 2016, 13 didn’t finish ranked. Commonly, those early season matchups that were so hyped up turned out to be nothing burgers, but they did affect the CFB Playoff committee rankings.

What is the purpose of preseason polls if they are so incredibly wrong. The goal is to find the four best teams in the nation and let them fight it out for the national championship. However, that is nearly impossible to get right because the preseason polls give miss information that only further convolutes the process of determining who the best four teams are for the College Football Playoff. If you are not convinced yet, I have proof.

This will be a journey down the rabbit hole so please hang on tight and keep and an open mind. The polls regularly reflect the voters desire to be right about their preseason selections rather than looking at the data objectively. Here are a few glaring examples of the head-scratchers:

The College Football Preseason Poll Proof

1. Wisconsin went into the 2018-19 season ranked #4. In the week four poll, Wisconsin was 2-1 and ranked #18 with wins over New Mexico and Western Kentucky. The team they lost to, BYU (2-1) was ranked #24. And the team that beat BYU was Cal (3-0), who was unranked. How on earth does that make sense?

2. Texas trashed Georgia in their bowl game yet Georgia finished above Texas in the final AP poll. Georgia is talented and was a sexy pick for the College Football Playoff after started #3 in the preseason? They both finished the season with the exact same amount of wins (2) over top 25 teams, and they have a head to head matchup.

3. Northwestern finished 8-1 in the Big Ten and only got 13 votes in the preseason poll.

4. Stanford came into the season ranked #13. They won their bowl game to finish the season 9-4. So how did the Cardinal finish unranked while seven other teams with at least four losses were ranked? Stanford’s only losses were to top 25 teams: Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, and Washington State. Three of those teams finished in the top 14.

SEC Preseason AP Poll Magic

5. Early in the season that LSU had two top 10 wins (Miami, Auburn). Those wins propelled LSU from #25 in the AP Poll to #5. Neither Miami or Auburn finished ranked. So, those two wins weren’t nearly as good as they were portrayed publicly. That eventually set up an “epic top 5 showdown” between Alabama and LSU. Alabama won the game 29-0, and LSU got a quality loss. The Football Playoff Committee then still had the Tigers ranked #7.

6. Now let us look at Florida. They came into the season unranked. At the end of the regular season, the Gators finished #10 in the country but only beat one team that finished in the top 25. In week six they beat the “#5 team” in the nation LSU which we just learned about. The next week they beat 3-4 Vanderbilt and were ranked #9. That set up a top 10 showdown with #7 Georgia. Georgia won, so adding that to their preseason hype only magnifies the SEC table thumping.

7. Kentucky finished the regular season at #10 in the nation despite only beating one team (Florida) that finished the season in the top 25

There were so many more examples, but you get the point. This is not a knock on LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, or Florida. All are talented teams that had great seasons. However, they are just prime examples in 2018 of how preseason polls manipulate the rankings and end up leaving the SEC overhyped. They ultimately only ended up judged from games they played against themselves.

Fans Deserve Better: A Great Solution

Imagine a world where there are no preseason rankings, and polls start after week four. There would have been information on teams that came into the season with so much hype. We would have already known Miami, FSU, USC, TCU, Auburn, and Wisconsin weren’t as good as advertised. Teams that beat them would get credit, but wouldn’t falsely rise so far in the polls. Starting the rankings after four weeks would create a much more accurate representation of schedule strength and conference strength. Right now we rank teams before they have played a down of football. We have seen time and time again that a top 5 talented team doesn’t make them a top 5 team.

Also, if the preseason polls were eliminated, college football fans would get much more of what they really want and deserve; great games. Teams would no longer have the luxury of preseason top 5 rankings while playing a cupcake non-conference schedule. You would see many more teams trying to put big names on their schedules early in the season to propel them to the playoffs. Fans would respond to that by eliminating the attendance problems many schools are facing. And viewership who certainly increase. All of which leads to more money for everyone except the student-athletes who are actually generating the money, but I digress.

Get rid of preseason polls and Make College Football Greater.

College Football Betting: Five Over / Under Win Totals To Bet

College football season is so close that you can taste it. In a few short days, the pigskin will be flying and Lee Corso will be putting on headgear. All will be right in the world. College football season also means that gamblers can come out of hiding from the dog days of summer. Before the games begin, it’s time to place your futures bets on over/under win totals. Let’s take a look at five intriguing bets to consider.

*Note: The over/under totals represent regular season games only. Conference championships and bowl games are not included. All totals are taken from Oddshark.*

Georgia: O/U – 10.5 wins (-130)

Can the Georgia Bulldogs recapture the magic from last season and make the College Football Playoff? The Bulldogs have to replace a lot of talent on both sides of the ball with the big pieces being linebacker Roquan Smith and running backs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. However, quarterback Jake Fromm, who is a future NFL prospect, returns with more experience so look for the offense to rely on his arm a little more this year. Plus, it’s not like this team is going to be falling off the face of the Earth with a rebuild. It’s not a rebuild, it’s a reload. Coach Kirby Smart is bringing in a 5-star recruiting class. Looking at the schedule, I see two potential hiccups: at LSU and vs. Auburn. I expect Georgia to win one out of the two and then run through everyone else. Bet the over. Georgia Over 10.5 wins

Washington: O/U – 10.5 wins (-145)

Since his arrival in 2014, Chris Petersen has brought the Huskies to two New Year’s Six games including a trip to the College Football Playoff (CFP) in 2016. The Huskies did not lose a lot of impact players and will return veteran quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin. This team has the potential to be very, very good. However, needing 11 wins from a team with the following games on the schedule is a tough pill to swallow: Auburn (in Atlanta), at Utah, at Oregon, vs. Stanford, at Washington State. Washington is going to be at the top of the Pac 12, but I see 10 wins in their future, not 11. Washington Under 10.5 wins

Notre Dame: O/U – 9.5 wins (+110)

If you hate Notre Dame, this is going to be a tough year for you. Notre Dame is going to fight for a spot in the CFP. I’m actually shocked the win total is set at 9.5. The biggest loss on the defensive side was their star defensive coordinator, Mike Elko, to Texas A&M. That being said, the defense is outstanding, ranking first in the country in terms of returning production. Plus, the offense still has Brandon Wimbush, Dexter Williams, and Myles Boykin carrying the load. What favors Notre Dame is their schedule. Most of their ranked opponents will travel to South Bend (Michigan, Stanford, Florida State) and they will be favored in most, if not all, of their games. Hammer the over. Notre Dame Over 9.5 wins

Missouri: O/U – 6.5 wins (-155)

If you don’t know a thing about Missouri football, that’s ok. All you need to remember are two words, Drew Lock. He is arguably the most explosive quarterback in the country, who threw for almost 4,000 yards and absurd 44 TDs. If you had no idea Lock played for Missouri, you might think he plays in the Big XII. Lock is putting up huge numbers against SEC defenses. The schedule is not easy with Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama in three straight weeks. That being said, this team won 7 games last year. If Lock stays healthy, they have a chance to win every game. Missouri Over 6.5 wins.

TCU: O/U – 7.5 wins (-135)

I had to do a double take when I first saw this. 7.5 wins for a team that’s coming off an 11 win season? Expect that low total to be bulletin board for the best coach in the Big XII, Gary Patterson. The defense is going to be fine with defensive end Ben Banogu and linebacker Ty Summers up front. The quarterback and offensive line are giant question marks. Kenny Hill aka Kenny Trill is gone so now the keys to the offense belong to sophomore Shawn Robinson. Plus, the Horned Frogs need to replace four all-conference linemen. Notable games are Ohio State (in Arlington), at Texas, vs. Oklahoma, and at West Virginia. If the line holds up and Robinson is decent at best, TCU can win at least 8 games. TCU Over 7.5 wins.