Unafraidshow Bold Prediction: Call football beats USC

California Golden Bears win debut against UC Davis

What the odds say about Cal Football’s chances

Per Vegas sports-books, Cal Football opened as 6.5-point underdogs. ESPN’s Football Power Index gave USC a 63.1-percent chance of winning, while numberFire’s Win Probability gave USC a 59.2-percent chance. Adding to that, USC is ranked fifth in Unafraidshow’s Pac-12 Power Rankings, while Cal is seventh. Almost everyone has USC claiming the victory.

Why USC Should Win

It’s for good reason, too. Don’t get me wrong. USC is a good team. They are 6-and-4, bowl eligible and have a breakout quarterback.

USC’s Offense

Currently, USC’s offense averages:

  • 30.5 points-per-game
  • 444 yards-per-game (311 passing, 133 rushing)
  • 45-percent success rate on third down (59 of 131)
  • 56-percent success rate on fourth down (5 of 9)

In nine games this season, Kedon Slovis looks like a future-star.

His 156.1 Passing Efficiency Rating and 20-9 touchdown-interception ratio are both good. In the seven games he’s started and finished, Slovis has four wins, three losses. His wins came against Stanford, Arizona, Colorado and Arizona State. When he started, USC lost to BYU, Notre Dame and Oregon. All in all, he’s played well for a rookie.

Star Wide Receivers

With all the praise given to Slovis, it’s important to remember that USC’s wide receivers are the stars of the show. In the Pac-12 conference, USC’s top-three wide outs are each top-ten in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

  • Michael Pittman Jr.
    • 71 (No. 1) receptions
    • 938 (No. 1) receiving yards
    • 8 (No. 3) receiving touchdowns
  • Tyler Vaughns
    • 62 (No. 3) receptions
    • 752 (No. 4) receiving yards
    • 5 (No. 8) receiving touchdowns
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
    • 55 (No. 5) receptions
    • 666 (No. 7) receiving yards
    • 5 (No. 8) receiving touchdowns

USC’s Defense

On defense, they’re holding teams to 28.1 points-per-game and 418 yards-per-game. That’s not ideal, considering they’re only averaging 30.5 points-per-game. But, it highlights why they are 6-and-4 and not 8-2.

Why Cal Football will win

Injuries to USC

Unfortunately, USC’s recent health hasn’t been good. Running backs Stephen Carr, Merkese Stepp and Vavae Malepeai were all out. Hopefully Carr and Malepeai can play against Cal. But if not, USC plays without three, key running backs.

More importantly, USC’s Brett Neilon left last week’s game with a calf strain. That calf strain sidelines him for multiple weeks, while Justin Dedich takes over. Adding to that is the health of Kedon Slovis. Again, during the same game against WSU, Slovis dealt with cramps that briefly sidelined him. While he sat out two series, they had to use an IV pump.

After starting out the game 15 of 17 for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns (on the first four drives), USC slumped. They only scored three points the rest of the game. Following the four touchdowns, their drives ended:

  • 5 punts
  • One fumble
  • One interception
  • One turnover on downs
  • One field goal

If USC isn’t in better health, Cal football takes the W.

Cal Football’s Defensive Strength

While not elite anymore, the Cal football defense is still good. They rank 30th in DFEI, according to footballoutsiders. Their .38 DFEI best USC’s .25 DFEI. Additionally, the strength of Cal’s defense directly challenges the strength of USC’s offense. Cal’s secondary is their best feature, while USC’s talent is in their receiving corps. They’ll have their work cut out for them guarding Michael Pittman Jr., but if anyone can do it, Cal can.

Chase Garbers is back

Remember Chase Garbers?

Back when the Cal football program was winning and ranked, Garbers was their guy. Before his Week 5 injury, Garbers led Cal to four straight wins. In five games (one partial), Garbers showcased a 148.1 Passing Efficiency Rating, alongside an 8-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. After years of poor play, Cal actually had an offense. Following his injury, they lost four straight games.

But now, finally throwing without limitations, Chase Garbers is good to go. Even if Justin Wilcox won’t name him as the starter yet, he should be. Garbers played well enough at the start of the season to earn the job. Moreover, Garbers brings a running dimension. Oh, and let’s not forget that Garbers led Cal football to a victory last season against USC.

Who’s Still In and Who’s Out: The 2019 Pac-12 Football Championship

Arizona State vs Stanford Football 2019

As we predicted earlier in the season, the PAC-12 is doing an excellent job of eating each other alive – a tradition unlike any other in the conference of champions.

Cal and Washington State both cost themselves spots in the top-25 with losses to Arizona State and Utah, respectively, leaving the conference with no undefeated teams.

At this point, because so many teams are lumped together, it’s hard to pick a clear favorite for the PAC-12 championship.

Here are the schools who still have a realistic chance of winning the PAC-12, with a look at their remaining schedule:

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 5

No. 13 Oregon Ducks (3-1)

Oregon’s loss to Auburn hurts, especially since it was a winnable game, but ultimately they are still the team best positioned to win the PAC-12 Championship, and possibly the only team who has a real chance at playing in the College Football Playoff this season.

That doesn’t mean it will be an easy road however, as they have true road games against Washington, Arizona State and USC, as well as a home date with the Cougars of Washington State.

Led by quarterback Justin Herbert, the Ducks should be playing meaningful football into the early part of 2020, but they still have some work to do to get there.

Washington Huskies Rose Bowl

No. 15 Washington Huskies (4-1)

A pounding by the Huskies of the Trojans on Montlake went a long way for this team, who is still rebounding from a tough, weather-aided loss to Cal at home a few weeks ago.

Washington actually has a somewhat favorable schedule going forward, as their two toughest opponents – Oregon and Utah – are both at home along with this year’s Apple Cup against Washington State.

Oregon is still the favorite, but the Huskies are also in good shape to make a push for a Rose Bowl berth if they can win out this season.

Utah Football Helmet
Sleeping on the Utes in 2019? Not a good idea.

No. 17 Utah Utes (4-1)

As I predicted, the Utes fell for the trap game against the USC Trojans down in California, wish dampened their hopes this season quite a bit.

They did bounce back with a commanding victory over Washington State, 38-13, but they’ll probably need to be perfect (or close to it) if they want to win the PAC-12 championship and play in either the Rose Bowl or the college football championship.

A date with the No. 15 Huskies in Montlake will be the biggest challenge they face, although back to back home bouts with Arizona State and Cal won’t be easy either.

Pac-12 Football Power Rankings Week 3

No. 20 Arizona State (4-1)

Arizona State is the biggest wildcard out of this group, but they did beat Michigan State earlier this season and just defeated Cal on the road, making them 4-1 with only a three-point loss to Colorado standing in their way.

They also have a favorable home schedule as well, with only Utah remaining as a tough conference game on the road.

They’ll have to defend their home turf against Oregon, Washington State, USC and rival Arizona, but they are a team to keep an eye on in the hyper-competitive PAC-12 conference this year.

Week 5 Predictions and Preview, Bryce Young Decommits, D’Eriq King, Pac-12 Conference Players of the Week

Pac-12 Apostles Podcast: Week 5 Predictions and Preview, D'Eriq King

George and Ralph preview all the Pac-12 conference college football games week 5. The visiting teams have a legit opportunity to win every game this weekend. They disagree heavily on the outcome of the Cal at Arizona State game. Check out the week 5 Pac-12 Power Rankings.

Houston quarterback D’Eriq King is redshirting the rest of the season and transferring to another school to play. The Apostles discuss whether this is good for college football and would we support his decision if it happened to our favorite team.

Listen on any Podcast Platform: Anchor // Spotify // Apple Podcasts // PocketCasts // Google Play // Stitcher // RadioPublic

They also discuss top CA high school quarterback Bryce Young’s decommitment from USC to commit to Alabama.

The Pac-12 Apostles is a podcast for fans who love the Pac-12 conference. George Wrighster and Ralph Amsden are committed to the honest and fair conversation about the Pac-12 conference. They talk about the good, bad, and the ugly about the Pac-12. Join them in becoming a Pac-12 Apostle by subscribing and sharing the podcast. Send your thoughts, comments, and :30 ranks to immad@unafraidshow.com. The best comments and rants will be included in the show.

Utah vs USC on a Friday Night is Another Pac-12 Conference Bad Idea

Pac-12 9am games Larry Scott Commissioner

Utah vs USC Starts at 9:00pm EST

Utah Utes logo

Sitting at No.10 overall, Utah eyes its first college football playoff birth. It’s a great time to be a Utah fan. Their upcoming matchup is the Pac-12 South game of the year. Utah vs USC. No. 10 Utes vs the now-competitive Trojans. If Utah continues to win, they’ll surely rise up the ranks. But, Pac-12 scheduling set this game for Friday night. Will this night game hurt their national exposure? In a line of poor ideas and bad commissioning from Larry Scott, Utah’s late matchup harms both Utah and the Pac-12. The conference outsources it’s scheduling to a company in Colorado. Then the Pac-12 brass, school presidents, and athletic directors approve it.

The Problem with Night Games

Keep in mind, night games are not inherently a problem. Especially for east coast teams and viewers. But, on a Friday night, Pac-12 games can be extremely bothersome. For example, the Utah vs USC game starts at 6:00pm on the west coast. That’s not too bad. For those who get off work at 5:00, they can make it home by the first whistle.

However, that same time is 9:00pm for east coast viewers. It’s not rocket science to figure out why that is a bad idea. Because college football games last an average of 3 1/2 hours, they have to stay up past midnight to see how it ends. 12:30am, at the end of a workweek, to watch a Pac-12 rivalry game. Honestly, how many non-conference fans would commit to that for Pac-12 games? It undermines national exposure for the Pac-12 conference.

Even Chris Peterson agrees with this sentiment.

“It hurts us tremendously in terms of national exposure. No one wants to watch our game on the East Coast that late, and we all know it,”

Chris Petersen, 2017

Late games just get less eyes. From fans, from scouts and from the press. For a contending team like Utah, they need all the eyes they can get. But, because of Larry Scott and his ideas, he’s holding back the Pac-12. Again.

We Discuss the Friday Night games more on Pac-12 Apostles Podcast

Listen on any Podcast Platform: Anchor // Spotify // Apple Podcasts // PocketCasts // Google Play // Stitcher // RadioPublic

Why Does Larry Scott Want Late Games?

“The reason we play almost a third of our games at night is that was a way to unlock significant value from television in our last negations,” Scott said. “ESPN and Fox placed a high value on us giving them a little more flexibility and being willing to play more night games.”

Larry Scott

“We essentially extend their day,” Scott said. “We give them a whole other window of high-quality, highly rated games. … Playing more night games than we did in the past unlocked the kind of value our schools were looking for.”

Larry Scott

To Larry Scott, the exclusivity of the late-night games are worth the pain. With more flexibility to play later, he claims to obtain “high value”. However, perhaps it is just a complete lack of leverage. Recall that Larry Scott deliberately put a wedge between major networks and the Pac-12. Betting on the Pac-12 Network to hit it big didn’t happen. Because every other power five conference has contracts with these networks, it leaves the Pac-12 to pick up the scraps. So, instead of putting the lower-ranked teams in the Friday night lights, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 schedulers put Utah.

For goodness sake, the Utah vs USC game deserves to get national exposure. The Utes deserve that. Does anyone think Roll Tide fans would stand for this? Of course not. If Larry Scott wants a Pac-12 program to make it to the college playoffs, he has to put steps in place for them to get there. Playing on Saturday, during the day, when everyone can view them, is best practice. But, then again, it’s unclear if Larry Scott actually knows what’s best for the Pac-12.

CFB Preseason Polls are Worthless and Mess Up the Playoff Rankings

Preseason Polls hurt the ranking throughout the season SEC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12

Polls judge everything in college football. Teams are ranked from the preseason till after the national championship.

We all love to discuss the and debate when the College Football Preseason Polls come out. I even do them for Unafraid Show. However, I have come to find a major flaw in the polling system that ultimately affects the CFB Playoff. We all want the four (or eight in a perfect world) best teams playing for the championship. College Football Preseason polls make that nearly impossible to achieve because they distort the rankings and data for the rest of the season. Eleven of the top 25 teams in the 2018-19 Preseason AP Poll didn’t even finish ranked. In 2017, nine didn’t finish ranked. In 2016, 13 didn’t finish ranked. Commonly, those early season matchups that were so hyped up turned out to be nothing burgers, but they did affect the CFB Playoff committee rankings.

What is the purpose of preseason polls if they are so incredibly wrong. The goal is to find the four best teams in the nation and let them fight it out for the national championship. However, that is nearly impossible to get right because the preseason polls give miss information that only further convolutes the process of determining who the best four teams are for the College Football Playoff. If you are not convinced yet, I have proof.

This will be a journey down the rabbit hole so please hang on tight and keep and an open mind. The polls regularly reflect the voters desire to be right about their preseason selections rather than looking at the data objectively. Here are a few glaring examples of the head-scratchers:

The College Football Preseason Poll Proof

1. Wisconsin went into the 2018-19 season ranked #4. In the week four poll, Wisconsin was 2-1 and ranked #18 with wins over New Mexico and Western Kentucky. The team they lost to, BYU (2-1) was ranked #24. And the team that beat BYU was Cal (3-0), who was unranked. How on earth does that make sense?

2. Texas trashed Georgia in their bowl game yet Georgia finished above Texas in the final AP poll. Georgia is talented and was a sexy pick for the College Football Playoff after started #3 in the preseason? They both finished the season with the exact same amount of wins (2) over top 25 teams, and they have a head to head matchup.

3. Northwestern finished 8-1 in the Big Ten and only got 13 votes in the preseason poll.

4. Stanford came into the season ranked #13. They won their bowl game to finish the season 9-4. So how did the Cardinal finish unranked while seven other teams with at least four losses were ranked? Stanford’s only losses were to top 25 teams: Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, and Washington State. Three of those teams finished in the top 14.

SEC Preseason AP Poll Magic

5. Early in the season that LSU had two top 10 wins (Miami, Auburn). Those wins propelled LSU from #25 in the AP Poll to #5. Neither Miami or Auburn finished ranked. So, those two wins weren’t nearly as good as they were portrayed publicly. That eventually set up an “epic top 5 showdown” between Alabama and LSU. Alabama won the game 29-0, and LSU got a quality loss. The Football Playoff Committee then still had the Tigers ranked #7.

6. Now let us look at Florida. They came into the season unranked. At the end of the regular season, the Gators finished #10 in the country but only beat one team that finished in the top 25. In week six they beat the “#5 team” in the nation LSU which we just learned about. The next week they beat 3-4 Vanderbilt and were ranked #9. That set up a top 10 showdown with #7 Georgia. Georgia won, so adding that to their preseason hype only magnifies the SEC table thumping.

7. Kentucky finished the regular season at #10 in the nation despite only beating one team (Florida) that finished the season in the top 25

There were so many more examples, but you get the point. This is not a knock on LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, or Florida. All are talented teams that had great seasons. However, they are just prime examples in 2018 of how preseason polls manipulate the rankings and end up leaving the SEC overhyped. They ultimately only ended up judged from games they played against themselves.

Fans Deserve Better: A Great Solution

Imagine a world where there are no preseason rankings, and polls start after week four. There would have been information on teams that came into the season with so much hype. We would have already known Miami, FSU, USC, TCU, Auburn, and Wisconsin weren’t as good as advertised. Teams that beat them would get credit, but wouldn’t falsely rise so far in the polls. Starting the rankings after four weeks would create a much more accurate representation of schedule strength and conference strength. Right now we rank teams before they have played a down of football. We have seen time and time again that a top 5 talented team doesn’t make them a top 5 team.

Also, if the preseason polls were eliminated, college football fans would get much more of what they really want and deserve; great games. Teams would no longer have the luxury of preseason top 5 rankings while playing a cupcake non-conference schedule. You would see many more teams trying to put big names on their schedules early in the season to propel them to the playoffs. Fans would respond to that by eliminating the attendance problems many schools are facing. And viewership who certainly increase. All of which leads to more money for everyone except the student-athletes who are actually generating the money, but I digress.

Get rid of preseason polls and Make College Football Greater.

College Football: Before You Fire Your Head Coach Take the US Coaching Test

Coaching Test

Tis’ Firing Season

It is abundantly clear that many schools do not make good decisions when it comes to deciding whether to retain or fire their head coaches. So I am here to help. I have come up with a simple, absolutely genius, and foolproof Coaching Test to determine whether or not your head coach needs to be fired.
Thanks to social media, fans, and boosters that scream about wanting their coaches fired are now heard. More often than not get their wish granted. As of November 29th, there have been 12 FBS head coaching jobs that have come open. None of these coaching changes were unexpected, but sometimes coaches are fired prematurely. Often, coaches are on an extremely short leash and are expected to win now despite the dysfunction they inherited. Fans and boosters want Clay Helton, and Gus Malzahn fired at USC and Auburn. But should they be gone as well?

2019 Coaching Changes

Coaching Test
With some coaches having large buyouts, there are obvious financial ramifications to firing a head coach. In addition to financial ramifications of firing the coach, there is often a lot of uncertainty when you don’t know who the next head coach is going to be. Many fan bases that have called for their coaches to be fired are learning a hard lesson. You may get your wish with your coach being fired, but your new coach may be from the “scratch and dent bin.” There are good coaches in the scratch and dent bin, but they aren’t perfect and have some unsuccessful times in their history. But you got what you wanted, a new coach. Take Kliff Kingsbury for example. After Texas Tech fired him, his phone started ringing off the hook with job opportunities. Tell me if you think Kingsbury should have been fired after you take the test.

Unafraid Show Coaching Test

Every head coach needs to be reevaluated every season. It does not matter whether the coach went undefeated and won the championship or went defeated and zero games. You only need to answer two questions two know whether your coach needs to be fired or not.

Number one:

Is there a coach that is guaranteed to take your job that is better than your current coach? Example: James Franklin is the head coach at Penn State. He seems to be doing a good job, but anyone clearly would fire him if Dabo Swinney or Nick Saban would replace him. Often coaches are fired, and the schools have no clue who will replace him.
I believe that is part of the reason USC did not fire Clay Helton. How many established, and winning head coaches would be willing to leave a successful program to go to USC. Coaches are more often valuing the stability at a top 11-25 job rather than jumping at the chance to coach a top 10 team.

Number Two:

Is there still hope? Can your current coach go into the living rooms of 17-21-year-old kids and sell them and their parents on the fact that the future of your program is brighter than the past? Can you make them buy in, believe, and go all in with you?
If you can’t answer both of these questions in the affirmative, then you need a head coaching change. The Unafraid Coaching Test is a simple and foolproof test. If Athletic Directors and administrators answered these two simple questions every season, they wouldn’t consistently mess up their programs. This method of determining whether to keep or fire your coach is an easy explanation to the boosters and other influential people around your program. It will keep the waters from being muddied by people with personal agendas and faulty reasoning. When Athletic Directors and administrations listen to the mob of angry fans, they mess up their programs by firing a coach too prematurely, or they rely on their gut/pride and keep the coach too long.
The angry mob of fans and boosters change their minds like the wind; their opinions cannot be trusted in the short term. Think about this.  Last year Florida State fans couldn’t wait to get Jimbo Fisher out and Willie Taggart in. Now, they would happily take Jimbo back. Texas fans were unsure about Tom Herman’s prospects as head coach. Now the Longhorns fanbase is smiling.
Here are a couple of common questions I got when I explained this on #UnafraidShow:

What if the coach is winning, but he can’t recruit?

If your coach can’t recruit, then he can’t win long term. If he can’t win, there will be a loss of hope. When the loss of hope happens, fire your coach. Don’t fire a winning coach!

What if the coach recruits well, constantly goes 8-5 or 9-4, and can never get you “over the hump”?

This is clearly referring to Kevin Sumlin at Texas A &M last year. TAMU was able to get Jimbo Fisher who has won a national championship. So, firing Sumlin was a good move. If they had missed on Jimbo, the Aggies would have ROYALLY screwed up. A coach who recruits well and consistently stays in those win totals is really close to breaking through. If you miss on the big fish, you will wish for him back two years from now.
Next time you get into a discussion about whether or not the coach of your favorite team needs to be fired refer to the Unafraid Coaching Test.

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13: Apple Cup, Civil War, Territorial Cup, Rose Bowl

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13

There is so much parity in Pac-12 that it is a tough undertaking to rank the teams outside of #1 Washington State. Washington lost to Oregon and Cal who lost to Arizona who lost to UCLA who lost to Arizona State who lost to Colorado, who lost to Oregon State who lost to USC who lost Stanford, who lost to Utah who lost to Washington. Teams 2-10 have switched up a lot this season and are pretty fluid from week to week. The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 13 is based on four things: quality wins, schedule played, dominance, and how teams are playing now. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Colorado (5-6) 

(L) 7-30 Utah

Not only has Colorado lost six straight games since starting 5-0. The Buffaloes have scored a grand total of 14 points in the last two weeks! The team isn’t playing as hard and their intensity is gone. It is obvious that the team sees the writing on the wall. Mike MacIntyre likely won’t be retained as the head coach for next season. He deserves credit for bringing stability to a program that was in total dysfunction. However, after six seasons and only one of those with more than five wins, it is hard to advocate for him. The Buffaloes will try to get bowl eligible this weekend at Cal.

11. Oregon State (2-9)

(L) 23-42 Washington

Everyone knew there would be no upset against Washington, but things are looking up for the Beavers. While their defense still can’t stop anyone ever their offense is continuing to show promise for the future. Jonathan Smith can at least take solace in the fact that multiple times this season the Beavers were not the worst team in the Pac-12.

10. Arizona (5-6)

(L) 28-69 Washington State

The Arizona defense returned back to form against Washington State. They allowed Wazzu quarterback Gardner Minshew to have a career day with 473 passing yards and seven touchdowns. The Wildcats defense had been poor all season against the pass and run despite back to back solid performances against Oregon and Colorado. Khalil Tate was one of the few bright spots this week. He finished with 319 total yards and four passing touchdowns. It seemed the freezing temperatures in Pullman took a toll on the warm-blooded Wildcats as they fumbled the ball six times. Coach Kevin Sumlin has to get his team back firing on all cylinders if he hopes to make a bowl game year one.

9. USC (5-6)

(L) 27-34 UCLA

The doomsday scenario has happened for USC. They do not have a school President, the athletic director Lynn Swann will likely be leaving soon, the boosters, fans, and alumni are demanding Clay Helton be fired, and they lost to a 2-8 UCLA team. The game against UCLA looked like it was going in Helton’s favor until a pair of horrendous second-half interceptions by quarterback JT Daniels sealed the Trojans fate. USC allowed UCLA running back Joshua Kelley to rush for 289 yards. So, I have no idea how they are going to compete against Notre Dame this week. If Helton can upset the Fighting Irish and knock them out of the College Football Playoff, he just might be able to save his job.

8. UCLA (3-8) 

(W) 34-27 USC

It is all smiles for the “boys in blue”. I actually have never heard anyone other than Maurice Jones-Drew call them that, but whatever. They beat USC after starting off the season 2-8. Chip Kelly has started 20 freshmen this season. Their start was slow, but have improved more than any other Pac-12 team from the beginning of the season until now. Their rushing offense and pass defense have steadily improved throughout the season. The future is extremely bright for the Bruins. I believe Chip Kelly will have UCLA in the College Football Playoff discussion in two more years.

7. Arizona State (6-5)

(L) 29-31 Oregon

If I told ASU fans that they would hire Herm Edwards (who hasn’t coached in forever), and have a chance to finish 7-5 year one they would have been happy. It will only take a win against their rival Arizona to make that a reality. The Sun Devils had to feel like they let a game slip away against Oregon. After a slow start, their defense held the Ducks to only a field goal in the second half. They picked off Justin Herbert twice and put up 16 points as well. If ASU can hold Khalil Tate in check this weekend, their bowl game destination will improve.

6. Cal (6-4)

Postponed vs Stanford (Dec. 1)

Cal is last in the Pac-12 in scoring offense (22.7 ppg). Ordinarily, that would be a huge impediment to winning games. But the Cal defense is only giving up 21.1 ppg. If they can get two wins to finish the season 8-4 coach I am positive you will start to hear Justin Wilcox’s name floated around for other head coaching jobs.

5. Oregon (7-4)

(W) 31-29 Arizona State

The good news is Ducks offense showed signs of life against Arizona State. The bad news is that it was only for one half of football. The Ducks offense scored 28 points in the first half. But only managed three more points and under a hundred yards of total offense in the second half. If the Ducks finish off the Beavers in Corvallis they will finish the regular season 8-4. It will be a could games less than I predicted preseason, but the future still appears bright. The biggest question for the Ducks is will their stars return for their senior seasons Herbert, Mitchell, Dye) . If they do, the Ducks will be in the preseason national championship conversation.

4. Stanford (6-4)

Postponed vs Cal (Dec. 1)

There has been nothing “Stanford-like” about this season. They still need two more wins just to tie David Shaw’s worst record at Stanford. UCLA and Cal won’t be pushovers the next two weeks. The Cardinal will need to get refocused after their game got postponed due to the California fires.

3. Utah (8-3)

(W) 30-7 Colorado

Everyone thought the Utes were done competing for the Pac-12 South crown when they lost their top two offensive playmakers, Tyler Huntley, and Zach Moss. Kyle Whittingham’s team had no intention of packing it in. They have had decisive victories against Oregon and Colorado since then. No matter what happens this week against BYU this week, Utah will still play the winner of the Washington vs. Washington State game in the Pac-12 Championship game. The conference needs Utah to dominate BYU and Washington State to beat Washington. It would set up at top 15 matchup in the championship game. The Utes will have an opportunity to make it to their first Rose Bowl appearance.

2. Washington (8-3)

(W) 42-23 Oregon State

The Huskies had been battling injuries all season, but are finally getting healthy. Myles Gaskin returned to the lineup last week and rushed for over 130 yards in both games. Washington’s offense came back to life and the look like a team that can win the Apple Cup. It will be interesting to see how the #2 defense holds up against the #1 offense in the Pac-12. A potential berth in the Rose Bowl will come down to Jake Browning’s ability to make throws and be special. Washington’s preseason hopes of playing for a national championship are gone, but there is still plenty on the line this week.

1. Washington State (10-1)

(W) 69-28 Arizona

DOMINATION. The Cougars whipped Arizona at every part of the game. Mike Leach’s team had 55 points at halftime. If he were Steve Spurrier in his Florida days he may have just done it. This was one of the statement games Washington State needed to send a message to the College Football Playoff committee that they deserve real consideration for the top four.

Now if they can survive the Apple Cup against Washington on a short week, and handly beat Utah in the Pac-12 championship, the Cougars just may get a berth in the playoffs. There feels like there is something magical about this squad. If they get in the playoffs, everybody better watch out!

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via- Sports Illustrated

Rose Bowl– Ohio State vs. Washington State

Holiday– Iowa vs. Washington

Sun– Syracuse vs. Cal

Alamo– Iowa State vs. Utah

Red Box– Indiana vs. Oregon

Cheez-It– Army vs. Arizona State

Las Vegas– Utah State vs. Stanford

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9: New King of the Castle…For Now

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9

The Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9 is based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here.

You can see last weeks rankings here.

Pac-12 Bowl Projections are after the rankings.

Send all your questions, comments, and grievances to: Immad@unafraidshow.com

12. Oregon State (1-6)

(L) Cal 7-49

The Beavers blew their last shot at a Pac-12 win in 2018. They got hammered by Cal. Oregon State is the best team in the Pac-12 rushing the football, but could not do so against Cal. The Beavers are still last in the Pac-12 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, and nearly every other important defensive statistic. Head coach Jonathan Smith has his work cut out for him in recruiting.

11. Arizona (3-5)

(L) 30-31 UCLA

Rhett Rodriguez got his first start of the season at quarterback, and the Arizona offense looked good. He personally did not have a fantastic game as he finished 15/34 with 231 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. However, if not for a fumble on a sure touchdown, and multiple penalties on big plays the Wildcats could have beat UCLA.

The Ducks head down to Tucson this week. Will Khalil Tate be back in the lineup or will he be sidelined for another week?

10. Cal (4-3)

When you look at the 10th ranked Pac-12 team, you might assume they are terrible. That is far from the case for Cal. They are much improved from the cellar dwellers under Sonny Dykes as head coach. They play in the Pac-12 north, which is the toughest division in college football. So, it is going to be extremely difficult to win games.

Cal’s pass defense is 4th best in the Pac-12 in total defense and 2nd against the pass. There is a lot to be excited about for the future of the program. If the Golden Bears can find two wins against Washington, Washington State, USC, Stanford, and Colorado, Justin Wilcox will make his first bowl game as Cal’s head coach.

9. Arizona State (3-4)

(L) 13-20 Stanford

All four of the Sun Devils losses have come by exactly seven points. They are within striking distance in every game. Arizona State is just not making enough plays to consistently win football games. It is not one particular side of the ball to blame. Both the offense and defense have shared responsibility for the losses. Manny Wilkens will need some 300-yard passing games if ASU is going to win three of their next five games (USC, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona) to get bowl eligible.

8. UCLA (2-5) 

(W) 31-30 Arizona

It is a winning streak. The Bruins have won two games in a row, and their offense is running and throwing the ball well. Chip Kelly has his team headed in the right direction. It is not all good news for UCLA. True freshman starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson left the game and never returned. And the Bruins defense allowed big play after big play by Arizona. You could drive a tractor through some of the running lanes.

UCLA has Utah coming in town this week. What if they mess around and…

7. Colorado (5-2) 

(L) 13-27 Washington

Colorado performed admirably on the road against Washington. They were without multiple starters including mid-season All-American wide receiver Lavishka Shenault and were still within four points deep into the 4th quarter. Steven Montez deserves a lot of praise for the Buffaloes 5-2 start. This season he has a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and has eliminated a lot of the silly mistakes he made last season.

Colorado should be bowl eligible after they play Oregon State this weekend. Mike MacIntyre will have at least one more season in Boulder.

6. USC (4-3)

(L) 28-41 Utah

The USC fan base is in full panic mode. They are questioning Clay Helton and his ability to lead the Trojans back to the promised land. It is extremely puzzling how USC has the most talented team in the Pac-12 but isn’t getting result commensurate with that on the field. They have had trouble running the football in the majority of their games.

To make matters even worse, lost JT Daniels and Matt Fink to injury against Utah. USC will likely have to start their 3rd string quarterback Jack Sears Saturday against Arizona State.

It is going to be a long rest of the season for USC.

5. Stanford (5-2)

(W) 20-13 Arizona State

The Cardinal have played seven games, and Bryce Love is leading the team in rushing with a lowly 348 yards. 2018 Stanford cannot run the football effectively. It is time to give up hope that will change this season. Trying to run the ball so much has continuously kept Stanford in 3rd and long situations, which they are last in Pac-12 conversion %.

It is time to for Davis Shaw to fully invest in letting KJ Costello pass the ball on early downs. They need to feed JJ Arcega-Whiteside until the defense loosens up on the run game.

4. Utah (5-2)

(W) 41-28 USC

I cannot fully buy into the Utes offense, even after three straight 40 point outings. However, I am fully buying into them winning the Pac-12 south. They scored a bunch all those points against three defenses that no one would consider top tier. Stanford is uncharacteristically 11th in total defense, Arizona can’t stop a nosebleed, and USC had some of their best defenders out. But, when you play bad defenses, you should treat them like bad defenses, and Utah deserves credit for that.

I am absolutely gushing over their defense. They are only allowing 282 yards per game which is 7th in the nation. And the Utes are only allowing 17.7 points per game.

3. Washington (5-2)

(W) 27-13 Colorado

There was never a doubt in my mind the Huskies would beat Colorado. However, the game was much closer than most people anticipated. It was 17-13 until 3:50 to go in the 4th quarter. Washington then piled on some late style points for those who didn’t see the game. A lot of credit goes to Washington’s second-best Pac-12 defense. Their middle linebacker Ben Bur-Kirven is leading the nation in tackles.

Watching the Huskies is a lot like watching the Michigan Wolverines play this year. You recognize the talent, and the defense is one of the best in the nation. However, their lack of explosiveness offensively hinders both from being national championship threats.

If the Huskies win out, they will be headed to the Pac-12 title game.

2. Oregon (5-2)

(L) 20-34 Washington State

Oregon got a huge wakeup call in the first half of the Washington State game. They were completely shut down offensively. At the half, the Ducks had only gained 50 yards on five possessions. And their defense allowed points on every drive in the first half after the first series interception. There were miscues and missed opportunities all over the place.

After the first half ended 27-0, the Ducks came out and looked like the team ranked #8 in the Unafraid Show top 10 and #12 in the AP poll. They dominated the Cougars in the 2nd half but had dug a hole far too deep.

Now the Ducks need a lot of things to fall their way to get a New Years Day Six Bowl birth.

1. Washington State (6-1)

(W) 34-20 Oregon

There is one stat that shows why Washington State has been so successful this year. Through 7 games Washington State is only allowing Gardner Minshew to be sacked once every 76 snaps. Mike Leach does a masterful job making the opposing defense guard the entire field. He designs plays that get the ball out quickly and have an outlet for when pressure comes. The Cougars are throwing for over 400 yards per game while being the best pass defense in the conference.

I have said it since Week 1; the Cougars appear to be turning a tragedy into a special season. They now have the inside track to the Rose Bowl or College Football Playoffs, and have earned the top stop in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 9.

BOWL PROJECTIONS

via-USA TODAY

Rose Bowl– Michigan vs Washington

Holiday– Iowa vs Stanford

San Francisco– Northwestern vs Oregon

Sun– Boston Col vs Utah

Alamo– West Virginia vs Washington St

Texas– TCU vs Arizona St

Cheez-It– Iowa State vs USC

Las Vegas– San Diego State vs Colorado

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games

Pac-12 Football Week 7

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Everything You Need to Know Before the Games is literally everything you need to know about Pac-12 football compiled in one spot. I have included the schedule, standings, power rankings, and most important offensive and defensive stats. Next week it will be even more aesthetically pleasing.

Schedule

There are two very important games in the Pac-12 this week. Both Washington vs. Oregon and Colorado vs USC could have an impact on the College Football Playoffs. If Colorado can remain undefeated and Oregon or Washington have one loss until the Pac-12 Championship game, the winner could earn a seat in the top four.

Bye – Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State

Pac-12 Standings Week 7

Washington, Washington State, and Stanford all control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North. If they win all the rest of their games, they will win the division. Oregon needs to win the rest of their games and have Stanford lose one more conference game.

 

NORTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Washington 3-0 5-1 175 82 2-0 2-1 Won 5
Washington State 2-1 5-1 25` 143 3-0 1-1 Won 2
Stanford 2-1 4-2 154 132 3-1 1-3 Lost 2
Oregon 1-1 4-1 228 122 3-1 1-0 Won 1
California 0-2 3-2 131 124 2-1 1-1 Lost 2
Oregon State 0-3 1-5 189  282 1-1 0-3 Lost 3

Colorado and USC are the only teams that control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South.

SOUTH DIVISION
Team Conf Overall PF PA Home Away Streak
Colorado 2-0 5-0 189 92 3-0 2-0 Won 5
USC 2-1 3-2 123 131 2-0 1-2 Won 2
Arizona 2-1 3-3 182 159 1-2 1-1 Won 1
Utah 1-2 3-2 129 86 1-1 2-1 Won 1
Arizona State 1-2 3-3 179  127 3-0 0-3 Lost 1
UCLA

USA Today Pac-12 Bowl Projections

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl—Washington vs Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl—Stanford vs Michigan

San Francisco Bowl—Washington State vs Nevada

Sun Bowl—Arizona State vs Florida State

Alamo Bowl—Colorado vs Texas

Cheez-It Bowl—Utah vs Iowa State

First Responders Bowl—Cal vs Wake Forest

Las Vegas Bowl—USC vs San Diego State

Unafraid Show Pac-12 Power Ranking

  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. Colorado
  4. USC
  5. Washington State
  6. Utah
  7. Stanford
  8. Arizona State
  9. Arizona
  10. Cal
  11. UCLA
  12. Oregon State

See full rankings

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Offensive Stats

 

Pac-12 Football Week 7: Defensive Stats

 

 

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 5: North Division is Dominant

Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 5

The Pac-12 had a great week in week 4. The heavy hitters in the conference (Washington, Stanford, USC, Oregon) all had great performances on national television. Stanford vs. Oregon is the game of the year so far. Great performances in prime time go a long way in determining the College Football Playoff top 4. The top of the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 5 was decided by razor-thin margins.

The Power rankings are based on three things: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. The “eye test” and preseason rankings are not factored into the Unafraid Show’s rankings. I know some of you are used to the biased rankings, but you won’t find those here. Respect is not given, it is earned.

Here are the Pac-12 Power Rankings from last week.

12. UCLA (0-3)

BYE

UCLA has a real shot at a win on Friday night against Colorado. Strange things always happen during those Friday Night Pac-12 games. And Chip Kelly’s squad had a full week off to figure out some way to retool the Bruins anemic offense. There are betting lines around who will win a game first UCLA, or Nebraska. If UCLA gets a win, they will get out of the Pac-12 Power Rankings cellar.

11. Oregon State (1-3)

(L) Arizona 14-35

There are a bunch of programs that have gimmicks for players to wear or use after turnovers. Oregon State has a “turnover chainsaw.” While it’s not corny like Florida State’s “turnover backpack, there is so much potential for something bad to happen. When I played in Jacksonville, Jack Del Rio put a big wood stump and an ax in the middle of the locker room. He would always tell us to “Keep Chopping Wood.” To make a long story short, Our punter Chris Hansen chopped into the wood, and the ax split the wood, he cut his leg, and couldn’t play anymore that season.

That story had nothing to do with Oregon State, but it was much more interesting than anything going on with the Beavers.

1o. Arizona (2-2)

(W) Oregon State 35-14

Finally, we saw the Arizona team we thought would compete for the Pac-12 South division. Khalil Tate’s ankle is still not healthy, so the Wildcats offense is extremely limited. Arizona struggled through their nonconference schedule, but are still 1-0 in conference play. The Wildcats get USC at home this week. A win would put them in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 South. Wouldn’t it be a strange twist of fate if we all severely overreacted to the first three weeks of the season?

9. Washington State (3-1)

(L) USC 36-39

The loss on Friday night against USC was tough. Washington State had an opportunity to win the game on their last drive until an inexplicable 3rd down play call. We didn’t know much about the Cougars heading into the USC game, but we learned a lot. Gardener Minshew is a legit passer. He carved up the Trojans defense to the tune of 344 yards and three touchdowns. With Minshew leading Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ system, Washington State has a chance against any team in the Pac-12.

8. Utah (2-1)

BYE

Utah will be looking to rebound from their week 3 loss to Washington at Washington State this weekend. The theme of the bye week should have been offensive efficiency. The Utes rank 10th in the Pac-12 in the percentage of possessions that result in points at 23.8%. The top two teams, Washington State and Oregon, sitting at 50.9%, and 44.8% respectively. Utah’s top-notch defense will have a tough task trying to stop the ‘Air Raid’ attack on Washington State. Kyle Whittingham had to find a way to get his offense going if the Utes have hopes of the south division crown.

7. USC (2-2)

(W) Washington State 39-36

USC got a much-needed win against Wazzu after back-to-back ugly losses. It was not pretty, but a win is a win. There is still concern about the Trojans inability to run the ball. They also struggled on pass defense as well against Washington State. The bright spots for USC were JT Daniels and wide receivers St. Brown, Pittman, and Vaughs. Daniels threw for a very solid 241 yards passing and three touchdowns. All three wideouts made phenomenal catches and showed they must be respected. What is it going to take for USC fans to buy into Clay Helton at head coach?

6. Arizona State (2-2)

(L) Washington 20-27

Herm Edwards is doing his thing down at Arizona State. They lost a competitive game to Washington that no one really thought would be as close, to begin with. The Sun Devils middle of the road record mirrors their conference ranking in most meaningful statistical categories. We need to see more of Manny Wilkins throwing the ball to N’Keal Harry if Arizona State is to rise in the Pac-12 Power Rankings.

5. Colorado (3-0)

BYE

Something tells me that Colorado better bring their A-game on Friday night against UCLA. The Buffaloes have done a great job defensively in their first three games. They have only allowed opponents to score on 17% of their drives. Steven Montez has to keep his level of play high if Colorado is going to have another quality season like two seasons ago. Their Nebraska win doesn’t look nearly as good at this point. Colorado is still untested, but they will be soon.

4. Cal (3-0)

BYE

Cal’s first real test of the season will be this weekend against Oregon. The Golden Bears secondary was leading the nation in interceptions before their bye. They will be challenged mightily by the nation’s best quarterback, Justin Herbert. When I talked to the Cal coaches, they said the team is ready and believes they can compete with any team on their schedule. If they are going to stay in the game with Oregon, they will need to step up their offensive production. Cal ranks last in the Pac-12 in explosive plays over 30 yards with one. And they are next to last in the Pac-12 for the percentage of possessions that result in points at 23.2%.

 

3. Oregon (3-1)

(L) Stanford 31-38

The loss against Stanford was an All-Time heartbreaker. But, there is good news. Even with the loss, the Ducks exploded back on the national scene and made a serious statement. Oregon looked, fast, physical, and well coached. They have arguably the best quarterback in the nation with Justin Herbert. And their defense is extremely stingy against the run only allowing a conference-best 2.13 yards per carry. The Ducks had been sitting outside the top three of the Pac-12 Power Rankings for weeks because they hadn’t played anybody. Now, that they have, it is clear they are a top tier team. Now the question is: Will the Ducks let Stanford beat them twice and have a letdown against Cal?

2. Washington (3-1)

(W) Arizona State 27-20

The Huskies were extremely impressive in the way they closed out the game against Arizona State. They executed their 4-minute offense to perfection. Jake Browing who I often pick on deserves a lot of credit for his play. He took care of the football and made plays when his team needed them. Browning will need to step up his play as Washington heads to the toughest part of their schedule. The Huskies defense leads the Pac-12 with only one explosive play over 30 yards given up.  Chris Petersen’s team has a lot more competition in the Pac-12 than most predicted in the preseason.

1. Stanford (3-0)

(W) Oregon 38-31

I almost threw up at the end of this game. The bottom line is that despite being dominated by Oregon all game, Stanford made plays when it counted. The best player on Stanford’s team is not Bryce Love; it’s KJ Costello. David Shaw’s team is always run first. But he will need to use the pass to set up the run if the Cardinal hope to make the College Football Playoffs. Stanford is boring to watch, but they win and are tough to beat. It does not get any easier for the Cardinal as they head to South Bend this weekend to play Notre Dame.

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