Coda / Apple TV+

One of the most important checkpoints on the road to the Oscars is the SAG Awards, which aired on Feb. 27. Before the ceremony, I tweeted out one prediction.

As The Office’s Kevin Malone once said, “It’s just nice to win one.”

Can Coda Win Best Picture?

The movie that best represents the “little engine that could” this awards season is Apple TV+’s Coda, the story of Ruby Rossi (Emilia Jones), a teenage CODA (child of deaf adults) who grapples between pursuing her musical dreams or staying at home to support her family’s business. After winning the top prize at Sundance and finding itself on many “top 10” lists, the feel-good story added another chapter to its Cinderella run with a triumphant victory for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the SAG Awards.

Coda seemingly checks off a new “first” with every nomination and win. Troy Kotsur, Marlee Matlin, and Daniel Durant, who play Ruby’s father, mother, and brother respectively, became the first deaf/non-hearing actors to be nominated and win a SAG. Kotsur also won Outstanding Supporting Actor earlier in the night. For the Oscars, not only is it the first film to be nominated with the majority of the starring roles played by deaf actors, but Coda will be Apple’s first film in Best Picture.

According to Goldderby, both the cast of Coda and Kotsur had the second-best odds of winning in their respective categories behind Belfast and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. With the huge win at the SAGs, can Coda pull off the unthinkable and win Best Picture at the Oscars?

Coda‘s win at the SAGs completely shook up the race for Best Picture. While The Power of the Dog remains the favorite due to its 12 Oscar nominations, Coda now slides itself into second place ahead of Belfast, which lost a ton of momentum with its SAG loss.

There are a couple of things in Coda‘s favor. SAG winners for Outstanding Performance by a Cast went on to win Best Picture in three of the last seven Oscars. Two of those winners – Parasite and Spotlight – were considered upsets, and many cite the SAG win as the springboard it needed to win over voters. Kotsur’s Oscar nomination for supporting acting helps its cause because only three films (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire, and Parasite) in the 21st century won Best Picture without an acting nominee.

From a worldly perspective, things aren’t so great in the world. Between a pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many are looking for signs of hope and happiness. Coda is a delightful, feel-good story that should play well with the Academy’s preferential ballot.

Two important ceremonies to circle: The Critics’ Choice Awards on March 13 and the Producers Guild of America Awards on March 19. Three of the last six best picture winners at the Critic’s Choice and Producers Guild went on to win Best Picture. If Coda can win the top prize at least one of these awards, it has a legitimate shot to pull off the upset at the Oscars.

Unpredictable Best Actress Race

Good luck predicting who wins Best Actress.

In things I did not expect to see, Jessica Chastain winning the SAG for Outstanding Leading Actress ranks at the top of the list. Chastain won for her role in The Eyes of Tammy Faye as the titular character. I will admit that I have not seen this film nor do I know anyone who saw it. However, Chastain is a well-respected actress who transformed into an unrecognizable person due to makeup and prosthetics, which is something that major guilds like SAG and the Oscars typically reward.

If you asked me three months ago who will win Best Actress, my pick would have been Kristen Stewart. Two months ago and I would have said Olivia Colman. One week ago and Nicole Kidman would be the selection. Now, is it Chastain? At this point, don’t count out Penelope Cruz as well.

With none of these films competing for Best Picture, this category is on an island. Your guess is as good as mine. As of March 1, my guess is Colman.

Previous Discussions:

What are your suggestions for the Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet me at, @danny_giro.

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