It’s early in the race, but two frontrunners have already emerged in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress for the 2021 Oscars.
Chadwick Boseman And Glenn Close Jump Out To Early Leads
Here is my first of many predictions about the 2021 Oscars.
Both Chadwick Boseman and Glenn Close will win Oscars at the 2021 ceremony.
First, there’s the late Boseman, who tragically passed away this past August after a long battle with colon cancer. The actor was a king, both on and off the screen. Imagine working long and excruciating days on films like Black Panther, The Avenger sequels, and Da 5 Bloods while undergoing chemotherapy and other cancer treatments. How many of us would give up? Frankly, a lot of us would including myself, but not Boseman. He was a special breed and truly a selfless individual. May he rest in power.
For the 2021 Oscars, Boseman was drawing major buzz for Best Supporting Actor in Netflix’s upcoming film, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which premieres on Dec. 18. After his death, the buzz skyrocketed as Boseman went straight to the top of the list in the supporting actor category. That all changed this week when Netflix announced their campaign to run Boseman for lead actor.
Netflix will campaign Chadwick Boseman for a lead actor Oscar nom in 'Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom'
If he wins he would join Heath Ledger and Peter Finch as the only posthumous acting winners
The strategist in me said, “Why would Netflix push Boseman in a tough best acting field instead of dominating the supporting category?” It took me less than a minute before the light bulb went off.
Two words: double nominee.
Boseman gave another performance in a Netflix movie that has gained awards buzz. I’m talking about Da 5 Bloods, where he played the undeniable “Stormin'” Norman. With the decision to run Boseman for Best Actor in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the door has opened for a supporting nomination for Da 5 Bloods.
It’s definitely an ambitious plan from Netflix and at the very least, Boseman will receive a nomination for one of his performances. Those who have seen Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have raved over Boseman’s final outing.
Chadwick Boseman will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Actor, now that Netflix has officially decided to campaign him as a lead performer for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM. He’s so good in his final film performance that it feels undeniable.
Chadwick is going to win an Oscar. My initial thought was to put him in Supporting for MA RAINEY. Now, this opens the door to become a double nominee as he’ll go supporting for DA 5 BLOODS. He deserves all of the recognition in the world. https://t.co/daJsQuzuAw
Speaking of Oscar victories, you know who hasn’t won an Oscar yet? Glenn Close. Unfortunately, Close’s relationship with the Oscars can be explained with one phrase, “Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.” 7 nominations, 0 wins.
It’s not like Close lost to scrubs every year. Jessica Lange, Jodie Foster, and Meryl Streep are three of the most accomplished actresses ever. However, if I had to switch up one result, it would be 1988 when Close should’ve won for Fatal Attraction. Before Cher and her fans hurt me, I will say that Cher should’ve been nominated and won for Mask.
It’s a shame Close is Oscar-less, but I believe she’s finally going to win gold in the supporting category for Hillbilly Elegy, a film about the American dream and societal problems through the eyes of an Appalachian family. Close will play Mamaw Vance, the grandmother of J.D. Vance, who wrote the memoir that served as the film’s inspiration. The Oscars typically honor films that are based on real-life events and reward actors who make complete physical transformations. Hillbilly Elegy and Closecheck off both boxes.
Glenn Close and Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy / Netflix
It’s ironic that the actress who beat Close in 2019, Olivia Colman, is also her toughest competition in 2021 as Colman will run in the supporting category for her role in The Father. Expect another close (I couldn’t help myself with this pun) race.
I really like both actresses, but I’d venture to say that Colman would be ok with Close winning this time around. I would be happy with this result, too.
Other News And Notes
-From what I’ve seen and read, the Best Picture frontrunner as of October 23 is Nomadland.
–Mank is coming. I don’t see a world where the Academy hates Mank. Nominations in Best Picture, Best Director for David Fincher, Best Actor for Gary Oldman seem inevitable.
-Netflix, Netflix, and more Netflix. This will be the year the streaming service receives the most nominations in their company’s history. Now, the pressure is on to win in the major categories.
-I still haven’t seen Tenet.
Which Chadwick Boseman and Glenn Close win Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
Say goodbye to the Emmys and say hello to the Oscars! Even though the Oscars won’t air until April 2021, the last quarter of 2020 signals the start of the Oscar season. Even in a year full of delays, postponements, and a pandemic, studios are still looking to acquire films at major festivals to bolster their awards’ chances. There’s one major studio that has stood above the rest and we all know who it is. Is This The Year Netflix Wins Best Picture?
Is This The Year Netflix Wins Best Picture?
2020 has been the year from hell for most major studios. Giant tentople franchises like Wonder Woman and James Bond have moved their release dates to the end of the year. Marvel and The Fast and Furious punted in 2020 and moved their major releases to 2021. If there’s one major studio that could survive a pandemic, it’s Netflix. Not only has Netflix survived, but it’s thrived beyond belief.
This past week, two major dominoes fell in the Best Picture race. First, West Side Story, one of the most anticipated films of 2020, was pushed back an entire year from Dec. 2020 to Dec. 2021. The iconic musical from Steven Spielberg, which was set to be a frontrunner for Best Picture, now moves to the 2022 Oscars.
When one door closes, another door opens, and in comes Aaron Sorkin. The second major domino revolves around Sorkin’s new film, The Trial of the Chicago 7, which released its first trailer this past week. Originally scheduled for a theatrical release from Paramount, the Chicago 7 was sold to Netflix for over $50 million and now, will be released in select theaters on September 25 before debuting on the streaming service on October 16. The film centers around the famous Chicago Seven, who led protests during the 1968 Democratic Convention. The cast is stacked and includes Oscar-winners Eddie Redmayne and Mark Rylance as well as recent Emmy-winners Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jeremy Strong.
All you have to say is “Aaron Sorkin wrote a courtroom drama” and this film would be up for awards. From A Few Good Men to The West Wing, the film and television academies love Sorkin in the courtroom. Critics agree as the first wave of reviews has been overwhelmingly positive with Richard Roeper calling it an “instant classic.” In terms of 2021 Oscars, nominations in Best Picture and Best Orginal Screenplay are automatic. Best Director for Sorkin also seems likely. In the acting categories, depending on how Netflix possessions each actor, Sacha Baron Cohen, Redmayne, Rylance, Abdul-Mateen II, and Strong will be considered in either Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor.
The Trial of the Chicago Seven is only one of the Oscar-hopeful films that Netflix has at its disposal. There is a world where Netflix could receive five Best Picture nominations with five established and well-respected directors behind each film. Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloodswill be in the mix due to its critical acclaim. Later this year, Netflix will release Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom from George C. Wolfe, Hillbilly Elegy from Ron Howard, and Mank from David Fincher, who hasn’t made a feature film since 2014’s Gone Girl. If there’s ever a time for Netlfix to win Best Picture, it’s this year.
Other News And Notes
-There have only been five female directors to receive a nomination for Best Director and only one, Kathryn Bigelow, has won the award. At the 2021 Oscars, there could be not one, but two women nominated for Best Director. They are Chloe Zhao for Nomadland and Regina King for One Night in Miami. Nomadland, based on the novel about a woman traveling as a modern-day nomad starring Frances McDormand, recently won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. The last three films to win that prize were Joker, Roma, and The Shape of Water. All three films were nominated for Best Picture and Best Director (Alfonso Cuarón and Guillermo del Toro won Best Director for Roma and The Shape of Water, respectively) so history is on Zhao’s side.
The other film, Regina King’s One Night in Miami, revolves around a fictional meeting between Jim Brown, Malcolm X, Cassius Clay, and Sam Cooke in a Miami hotel room in 1964. The film premiered to positive reviews, praising King’s directorial debut. King, an Oscar and Emmy winner, would be the first black female to be nominated for Best Director.
-Speaking of Netflix, the streaming service acquired Pieces of a Woman, a drama about a couple who must face their midwife after she loses their baby and faces criminal negligence. The performance that drew the most buzz was from Vanessa Kirby, who plays the grieving mother that must navigate fractured relationships with her husband, mother, and midwife. Kirby’s performances have been hailed the “performance of her career” by Variety. Expect a huge campaign from Netflix to elevate Kirby into the Best Actress category.
-Will I ever see Tenet?
Which film from Netflix has the best chance of winning Best Picture? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
It’s never too early to start thinking about the Oscars even if the ceremony’s date was pushed back to the Spring. Last week, the Academy decided to push back the Oscar ceremony to April 25, 2021. More importantly, the eligibility requirements moved from Dec. 31, 2020, to the end Feb. 28, 2021. Due to COVID-19, delaying the ceremony was expected, but still surprising. This change will likely set off a domino effect for the dates of other awards shows like the Golden Globes, which usually convenes at the beginning of January.
Despite being 10 months away, there are two films from the last week that should Oscar aspirations with one being a serious contender for multiple awards. The two movies are Da 5 Bloods and The King of Staten Island. Da 5 Bloods jumps off the page as an Oscar contender because of its subject matter, stellar performances, and direction from Spike Lee. In turn, The King of Staten Island is the type of film that’s typically not represented at the Oscars, but in a perfect world, there should be Oscars’ consideration for one performance in particular.
Da 5 Bloods
It’s June 18 and Netflix’s Da 5 Bloods is the leader in the clubhouse for Best Picture. In Da 5 Bloods, four African American veterans (Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Norm Lewis, Isiah Whitlock Jr.) return to Vietnam to find the remains of their heroic squad leader, Stormin’ Norman (Chadwick Boseman) and collect a treasure they buried during the war. Da 5 Bloods is half war drama/half crime thriller that frames the Vietnam War entirely through the eyes of black veterans, which is a first for films about that specific war. Like many of Lee’s films, it’s equally compelling as it is informational as the film references historical moments such as the assassination of Martin Luther King, the resignation of President Richard Nixon, and the Civil Rights Movement in the late 1960s. It’s a film that presents a war on two fronts: the war in Vietnam and the fight against oppression in the United States. At its core, Da 5 Bloods depicts how the traumas of our past stay with us today.
Lee’s passionate storytelling and careful direction are on full display in Da 5 Bloods, but will it lead to Oscar nominations? It’s hard to believe that up until 2019, Lee received only two individual nominations*: a screenplay nomination for the iconic, Do the Right Thing, and a documentary nomination for 4 Little Girls. It wasn’t until 2018’s BlacKkKlansman when Lee finally received his long-awaited competitive Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay.
*Lee received an honorary Oscar in 2016.
With what’s going on in this country, from the Black Lives Matters movement to protests over police brutality, it will be hard to find a more culturally relevant film in 2020 than Da 5 Bloods. Now that Lee won an Oscar, momentum is on his side with the Academy. It’s clearly at the top of the shortlist for best film of the year up to this point. Plus, the fact that it’s on Netflix could help the film remain on the public’s radar for the rest of the year. All of these components could make up the perfect storm for Lee to win Best Director, which has never been won by a black man or black woman. In addition to Lee, don’t sleep on Lindo, who gives an emotional tour-de-force of performance that’s so raw and moving. It’s still early, but Da 5 Bloods could be in for a historic night next April.
DA 5 BLOODS: Going to be difficult to find an actor more worthy of an Oscar nomination in 2020 than Delroy Lindo. His monologues in the jungle left me speechless. #Da5Bloodspic.twitter.com/2BjvU2lVZ0
Oscars 2021: Nomination Predictions For Da 5 Bloods
Best Picture
Best Director, Spike Lee
Best Actor, Delroy Lindo
Best Supporting Actor, Clarke Peters
Best Orginal Screenplay, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Spike Lee, and Kevin Willmott
Best Cinematography, Newton Thomas Sigel
Best Score, Terence Oliver Blanchard
The King of Staten Island
Time and time again, Judd Apatow finds a rising talent and turns them into a superstar. Add with Pete Davidson to the long list of Apatow’s muses thanks to The King of Staten Island, Apatow’s first non-documentary since 2015’s Trainwreck. In The King of Staten Island, Davidson stars as Scott, an unmotivated stoner that failed to move on from his firefighter father’s passing as a child. When his mother (Marisa Tomei) begins to date another fireman (Bill Burr), Scott must get his life together and figure out his future before it’s too late.
Like many of Apatow’s previous films, The King of Staten Island‘s strength is a well-balanced combination of hilarity with sincerity. It’s an unofficial autobiography of Davidson’s life, from his Staten Island roots to the passing of his real firefighter father on 9/11. Davidson’s heartfelt, nuanced, and somewhat dark performance is the complete opposite of the comedian he plays on Saturday Night Live’s Weekend Update. Frankly, Davidson, the actor, is my favorite version of the 26-year-old. I rarely tune into SNL and standup specials from comedians not named Dave Chappelle so my opinions on Davidson before 2020 were limited. After his performances in Big Time Adolescence and The King of Staten Island, I hope that Davidson continues to go down this road of complicated, comedic characters. If he teams with the right directors, there’s no reason why Davidson can’t be the next Seth Rogen or Jonah Hill.
The King of Staten Island benefits from its supporting cast with standout performances from Bel Powley, Marisa Tomei, and most notably, Bill Burr. All three characters call Scott out on his bullshit not because they don’t love him. In fact, all three challenge Scott to start a new life because they do care. Powley and Tomei are more tender with their approach while Burr shows Scott tough love in the firehouse and forces Scott to face the demons that have haunted him since his father’s passing. Burr’s Ray Bishop is hard-nosed, caring, and the perfect counterpoint to Davidson’s Scott. The interactions between those two characters are the strongest points in the film with Burr stealing most of those scenes.
I enjoyed THE KING OF STATEN ISLAND, especially the performances from Pete Davidson and Bill Burr. My biggest takeaway: I need to revisit Kid Cudi's earlier albums. https://t.co/tN2O8qHZAw
When it comes to the Oscars, why are comedies rarely recognized? It’s an age-old question with no clear answer. Comedies are one of the most popular genres in film, and yet, they barely breakthrough in the Best Picture category. Birdman in 2014 and The Artist in 2011 both have comedic moments, but both films are a far cry from a typical comedy. Before that, 1977’s Annie Hall is the last true comedy to win Best Picture. With acting, comedic wins happen more often, but like Best Picture, it’s a performance with comedic moments in a drama. Brad Pitt, Olivia Colman, and Frances McDormand played characters with humorous moments and all won acting Oscars within the last three years. However, Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood, The Favourite, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri do not have the same comedic undertones as The King of Staten Island.
The King of Staten Island may not have your typical Oscar performances, but Tomei and Burr should each receive consideration in the supporting categories. If there’s anyone who can win a surprise Oscar for a comedy, it’s Tomei, who won Best Supporting Actress for My Cousin Vinny. With all due respect, as good as Tomei is, it’s Burr’s performance that stood above the rest. Selfishly, I hope more studios hire Burr to star in more films because his raw, comedic persona is refreshing to see onscreen.
With all that being said, I can’t sit here with a straight face and predict any Oscar nominations for The King of Staten Island. Believe me, I’d love to be wrong about this! If there’s any consolation, Davidson could nab a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical.
What are your thoughts on Da 5 Bloods and The King of Staten Island? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
2021 Oscars? It’s never too early! Going into the 2020 Oscars, I expected all of the favorites to win. 1917 and Sam Mendes would win Best Picture and Best Director, respectively. Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern would win in their respective acting categories. I would have been fine with all of those decisions.
Hearing “Parasite” still gives me goosebumps. Parasite not only won Best Picture, Best Orginal Screenplay, and Best International Feature, but Bong Joon-ho shocked the world when he won Best Director. I’m here to firmly state that Parasite is the real deal. It was my favorite movie of 2019 and it deserved every major award and then some.
Slowly but surely, I'm creating my Top 10 movies of 2019. That being said, I guarantee that Parasite will be in my Top 3. Not only one of the movies films of the year, but it will eventually go down as one of the best films of the decade. #Parasite
That being said, it’s time to look ahead to the 2021 Oscars. It may be considered “downtime” for award season movies, but I’m always looking towards what’s on the horizon. I did this same article last year and my predictions were rocky, to say the least. It’s bad, but I’ve definitely seen worse. Here were my predictions in Feb. 2019.
*Did not pick supporting categories
After I clean my mouth of vomit from those predictions, I’ll move on. So what’s on tap for 2020 that we could see at the 2021 Oscars? Three heavy hitters come right to mind: Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune. Matt Damon and Ben Affleck reunite as writers for the first time since Good Will Hunting in The Last Duel. Guillermo del Toro should be releasing his followup to the Oscar-winning The Shape of Water. Sofia Coppola, Wes Anderson, Spike Lee, David Fincher, and Aaron Sorkin all have films coming out in 2021. A lot can change from now until next February. However, here are my way-too-early (and reckless) predictions for the 2021 Oscars.
Best Picture
Dune
The French Dispatch
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
Nightmare Alley
Nomadland
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Untitled David O. Russell film
West Side Story
Best Actor
Adam Driver, The Last Duel
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Christian Bale, Untitled David O. Russell film
Denzel Washington, Macbeth
Gary Oldman, Mank
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchet, Nightmare Alley
Frances McDormand, Macbeth
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (If this movie gets positive reviews, expect a HUGE campaign for Close for Best Supporting Actress. Once again, if the movie is well-received by critics, Close will finally win an Oscar.)
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Octavia Spencer, The Witches
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
David O. Russell, Untitled film
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
If I get more than 5 of these predictions right, I’ll be happy. See you next February.
Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @danny_giro.
Ready for the 2020 Oscars? First, I gave you my picks. Now, I want to make you some money. Betting the Oscars is not a typical bet. It’s not like a sports bet where the result is determined live. Oscar bets are voted on by the Academy so essentially, we’re betting on how a group of people voted. It’s not easy, but there are some keys to look for while betting the 2020 Oscars.
Use Results From Other Award Shows As Guide – It’s very rare for an award winner to come out of nowhere. Usually, each category has one to three contenders. In most cases, these contenders won awards at major shows like the Golden Globes, SAGs, or BAFTAs. Furthermore, for technical awards, there are guild awards given out for crafts like writing, editing, and cinematography. The more awards won at the guilds, the better the chances of winning an Oscar.
Favorites Win A Lot – This doesn’t help when it comes to making money, but it does pay off to pick favorites if you are doing an Oscars pool where you have to pick winners without odds.
Look For Bets With The Best Value – The bets I’m suggesting to make are not “locks.” Most of them are underdogs and long shots. They may not win, but it’s your best chance of making money. Try to avoid categories where the favorite is significantly out of reach.
Bet At Your Own Risk – I’m not legally obligated to say this, but I’m going to say it anyway. Have fun, but be smart!
*Odds taken from Draftkings at 5:30 PM EST. Subject to change.
My picks do NOT reflect who I believe will win. They reflect the best bet you can make to win the most money.
Best Picture
Great value here for the top three spots. 1917is the favorite because of Best Picture wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and PGAs. Right on its tailis Parasite, which won the Best Ensemble Award at the SAGs and will win Best International Feature Film. My pick is 1917 because the PGA winner has won 8 of the last 10 Best Pictures at the Oscars. Plus, it has great odds for a frontrunner. I’d bet on both 1917 and Parasite. If you have extra money to blow, sprinkle a little cash on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The Academy loves Tarantino and they love movies about Hollywood. 10 to 1 odds make for a great payout.
Bets To Make: 1917 in Best Picture -125 and/or Parasite in Best Picture +150
Every Acting Category
Do you like lighting your money on fire? If so, then you’ll love betting on the acting categories. I’m trying to make a case for any actor not named Renée Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern, but I can’t do it with a straight face. All four actors are heavy favorites and have few losses on their resumes this season. Even though I don’t believe this will happen, if I had to pick one upset, it would be Scarlett Johansson in Best Actress. I can’t advise anyone to place a bet on an underdog in any of these categories, but Scar Jo in Marriage Story would be my play.
Bet To Make: Scarlett Johansson in Best Actress +1000
Best Original Screenplay And Best Adapted Screenplay
Two categories, two underdogs that have legitimate shots at winning. Let’s start with original screenplay. Parasite is the favorite because of wins at the WGAs and BAFTAs. However, right on Director Bong’s heels is Mr. Quentin Tarantino. You can never count out Tarantino in the original screenplay category because of his two previous wins for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained. I would never blame someone for betting on Tarantino. In adapted screenplay, Jojo Rabbit also picked up wins at the WGA and BAFTAs. However, Greta Gerwig wrote the best adaptation of Little Women to date. Do not count her out, butTaika Waititi and Jojo is the best bet to make.
Bets To Make: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in Best Orginal Screenplay +150 // Jojo Rabbit in Best Adapted Screenplay -177
Best Sound Editing And Best Sound Mixing
The 1917 domino starts in the technical categories. If it wins in both sound editing and sound mixing, then 1917 is due for a huge night. That’s a possibility that may end up happening. However, for betting, Ford v Ferrari as a slight underdog in both categories is juicy. Ford v Ferrari is a very loud and effective film. If I had to choose which category Ford v Ferrari will win, I’m going with sound mixing.
Bet To Make: Ford v Ferrari in Best Sound Mixing +125
What are your best bets for the 2020 Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
Oh, happy day! The 2020 Oscars are finally here. I love the Oscars. I always see people complaining about how it’s boring or too long on Twitter. I’m in the opposite camp. Make the ceremony 10 hours long and I’ll watch it from start to finish.
Will tonight be all chalk or will history be made? 1917 could clean up in all of the technical categories along with wins for Best Director and Best Picture. Parasite could become the first foreign film to win Best Picture. All of the acting categories include huge favorites, but the technical categories are up for grabs. Overall, I’m excited for tonight.
Without further ado, here are my picks.
BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The biggest award of the night is a two-horse race. 1917 is the favorite thanks to Best Picture wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and PGAs. However, Parasite, my favorite movie of 2019, is making a late push thanks to its win at the SAGs. If Parasite wins Best Picture, it would be the first foreign film to ever accomplish this feat. However, 1917’s win at the PGA was significant since 10 of the last 12 PGA winners went on to take home Best Picture at the Oscars. My pick is 1917.
P.S. The wild card in this race is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Quentin Tarantino has a lot of support in the Academy. It’s a movie full of stars during the Golden Age of Hollywood. It’s right up the Academy’s alley. Plus, OUATIH has multiple acting nominations. The last film to win Best Picture without an acting nomination was Slumdog Millionaire in 2009. (1917 and Parasite both have zero acting nominations.) If Tarantino wins for original screenplay, look out for OUATIH.
P.S.S. Enough with the narrative that 1917 winning Best Picture is boring. It’s an achievement in filmmaking that people are going to remember for a while.
Who Should Win:Parasite Who Will Win: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Todd Phillips – Joker
Sam Mendes – 1917
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Take my Best Picture argument and apply the same principles to Best Director. Mendes has won practically every directing award on the awards season circuit. However, people (including me) love Director Bong and Parasite. Tarantino is on the outside looking in. However, 1917 is in for a big night and Mendes will pick up his second win for Best Director.
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho – Parasite Who Will Win: Sam Mendes – 1917
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory as Salvador Mallo
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Rick Dalton
Adam Driver – Marriage Story as Charlie Barber
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker as Arthur Fleck / Joker
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes as Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio
I wish this category was more of a competition between Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix. I preferred Driver’s performance because of his ability to capture the emotional trauma and brutal truth of what happens during a divorce. However, Joaquin’s physical and mental transformation in Joker was undeniably good. I like Joaquin and I enjoyed Joker so I have no problem with him winning.
Who Should Win: Adam Driver – Marriage Story as Charlie Barber Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker as Arthur Fleck / Joker
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet as Harriet Tubman
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story as Nicole Barber
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women as Josephine “Jo” March
Charlize Theron – Bombshell as Megyn Kelly
Renée Zellweger – Judy as Judy Garland
Confession: I never saw Judy. I had the opportunity to watch it on a plane, but I chose to watch The Peanut Butter Falcon instead. Renée Zellweger hasn’t lost in this category all season and I don’t expect that to change. However, I’d love for Saoirse Ronan to win. She’s probably the best actress of her generation and it sucks that she’s going to have to wait a little longer to win an Oscar.
Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan – Little Women as Josephine “Jo” March Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger – Judy as Judy Garland
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as Fred Rogers
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes as Pope Benedict XVI
Al Pacino – The Irishman as Jimmy Hoffa
Joe Pesci – The Irishman as Russell Bufalino
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth
Brad Fucking Pitt. This is the speech I’m looking forward to the most.
Once Upon Time in Hollywood / Sony
Who Should Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth Who Will Win: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell as Barbara “Bobi” Jewell
Laura Dern – Marriage Story as Nora Fanshaw
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit as Rosie Betzler
Florence Pugh – Little Women as Amy March
Margot Robbie – Bombshell as Kayla Pospisil
I love Florence Pugh and she’ll be a force for years to come, but it’s time for Laura Dern to collect some hardware. No arguments here.
Who Should Win: Florence Pugh – Little Women as Amy March Who Will Win: Laura Dern – Marriage Story as Nora Fanshaw
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out – Rian Johnson
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won
Toughest category to predict. All five of these scripts are stellar. However, this will come down to Tarantino and Bong. Tarantino has the experience thanks to his two previous wins in this category. That being said, Bong won at the Writers Guild Awards (Tarantino was not eligible) last week, but I still believed Tarantino would win at the Oscars. Fast forward to the BAFTAs and Bong beat Tarantino head-to-head in this category. Because of that, I’m going with Bong by the slimmest of margins.
Who Should Win:Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won Who Will Win: Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman – Steven Zaillian based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson
Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott
The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten based on his play The Pope
Once again, another early frontrunner came back to the pack. This should be Greta Gerwig’s first Oscar win because Little Women was brilliant. Unfortunately, I don’t think she wins here. Taika Waititi has all the momentum in the world thanks to two wins over Gerwig at the WGAs and the BAFTAs. Taika walks home a winner.
Who Should Win:Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott Who Will Win: Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – Dean DeBlois, Bonnie Arnold, and Brad Lewis
I Lost My Body – Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus – Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, and Marisa Román
Missing Link – Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, and Travis Knight
Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen
When in doubt, Pixar at the Oscars. When in even more doubt, Toy Story at the Oscars.
Who Should Win:Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen Who Will Win: Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Corpus Christi (Poland) in Polish – Directed by Jan Komasa
Honeyland (North Macedonia) in Turkish and Macedonian[9] – Directed by Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov
Les Misérables (France) in French – Directed by Ladj Ly
Pain and Glory (Spain) in Spanish – Directed by Pedro Almodóvar
Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho
Who Should Win:Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho Who Will Win: Parasite (South Korea) in Korean – Directed by Bong Joon-ho
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert
The Cave – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær
The Edge of Democracy – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan
For Sama – Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland – Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev
Flip a coin between American Factory and Honeyland. I’ll back the Obama-produced American Factory.
Who Should Win:American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert Who Will Win: American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, and Jeff Reichert
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women – Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story – Randy Newman
1917 – Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams
Five really good scores. If any person in this category won, I’d be happy. It’s a win-win-win-win-win for me. One of my favorite scores of the year belongs to Randy Newman, who has never won in this category. However, Hildur Guðnadóttir’s haunting score was the co-MVP of Joker.
Who Should Win:Marriage Story – Randy Newman Who Will Win: Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 – Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up” from Harriet – Music and Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
This should have happened at the Oscars. It’s a damn shame. Since it’s not happening, I’ll always root for Elton John.
Who Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin Who Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman – Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
Joker – Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
1917 – Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson
Roger “The God” Deakins.
Who Should Win:1917 – Roger Deakins Who Will Win: 1917 – Roger Deakins
*Note: The difference between sound editing and sound mixing at the Oscars is confusing and I still don’t understand it. However, if you said 1917 wins all of the technical categories, I wouldn’t blame you. That being said, Ford v Ferrari might split with 1917. I’m honestly not sure and I’ll stop talking.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferrari – Donald Sylvester
Joker – Alan Robert Murray
1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Matthew Wood and David Acord
Who Should Win:1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate Who Will Win: 1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano
Who Should Win:Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow Who Will Win: 1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman – Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit – Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo
Who Should Win:Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
Joker – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy – Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White
1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole
Who Should Win:Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker Who Will Win: Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker – Mark Bridges
Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips
Who Should Win:Little Women – Jacqueline Durran Who Will Win: Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
BEST FILM EDITING
Ford v Ferrari – Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles
Joker – Jeff Groth
Parasite – Yang Jin-mo
Who Should Win:Parasite – Yang Jin-mo Who Will Win: Parasite – Yang Jin-mo
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick
The Irishman – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda
The Lion King – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman
1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy
Who Should Win:Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick Who Will Win: 1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy
Note: I’m a novice when it comes to shorts at the Oscars so these predictions are based on what I’ve read.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
In the Absence – Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Life Overtakes Me – John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
St. Louis Superman – Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
Walk Run Cha-Cha – Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
Who Should Win:Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva Who Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Nefta Football Club – Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
The Neighbors’ Window – Marshall Curry
Saria – Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
A Sister – Delphine Girard
Who Should Win: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon Who Will Win: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dcera (Daughter) – Daria Kashcheeva
Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
Kitbull – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
Memorable – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
Sister – Siqi Song
Who Should Win:Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver Who Will Win: Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
Do you agree with these predictions for the 2020 Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
Awards season is in full swing. With just over two months before Oscar nominations, most of the potential nominees have been released in theaters, premiered at festivals, or at the very least, been screened by critics. However, there’s still one film on the horizon that hasn’t been seen by most. It’s this year’s “ace-in-the-hole” and it should be on everyone’s watchlist. That film is 1917.
1917 tells the story of two young British soldiers (George MacKay and Dean-Charles Chapman) who are given a seemingly impossible task during the height of World War I during Spring 1917 in northern France. The soldiers must deliver a message in enemy territory that will stop 1,600 men, including one of the soldier’s brothers, from walking into a deadly trap.
1917 is no ordinary war epic. Director Sam Mendes imagined and eventually directed the film as one continuous shot, meaning that the film will feel like a few long takes with choreographed moving camera shots. The idea behind the one-shot technique heightens the race against time as well as immerse the audience with the two young soldiers throughout the entire film. Cinematographer Roger Deakins, who worked on the film, worried that the one-shot approach was a “gimmick” at first, but he later said, “It’s a way to get sucked into the story.”
1917 is full of speculation in the film community because hardly anyone has seen it. The majority of critics have not seen this film and most likely won’t see it until the end of November. The film will have its world premiere on December 4 at a UK Royal Charity event. However, back in September, there were reports about a test screening with enthusiastic and positive reactions, with one source comparing it to Saving Private Ryan.
If the test screening reactions are a sign of what’s to come, 1917 could end up being the film that shakes up the 2020 Oscars. Right now, most critics have Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, and Marriage Story as the leaders of the pack this awards season. However, with strong reviews and a successful run at the box office, 1917 could catapult to the top of the Best Picture hopefuls.
First of all, the Academy loves war movies. Giant set pieces, elaborate battle sequences, and elegant costumes are right up the Academy’s alley. Out of 91 ceremonies, 16 films set against the backdrop of war have won Best Picture at the Oscars. Casablanca, Patton, Platoon, Braveheart, and The Hurt Locker are some of the war films that have won Best Picture. That list doesn’t include previously nominated war movies that didn’t win like Saving Private Ryan, War Horse, and Dunkirk.
There is only one way this war ends. Last man standing. From Oscar-winning director Sam Mendes, watch the new 1917 trailer now. In theaters December. #1917Moviepic.twitter.com/kWndUkiuwG
The Academy also loves familiarity and rewarding previously nominated filmmakers and actors. Mendes directed American Beauty, which won five Oscars including Best Director and Best Picture. Deakins is a living legend and one of the most heralded cinematographers ever. Deakins has received fourteen nominations (!) for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography, winning once for Blade Runner 2049. Plus, the cast includes Golden Globe and Oscar nominees and winners such as Richard Madden, Colin Firth, and Benedict Cumberbatch.
1917 has all the ingredients of an Oscar-nominated film. I don’t see a world where 1917 isn’t nominated for Best Picture. 1917 should be nominated (and win) for Best Cinematography. Plus, it should clean up in all of the technical categories (film editing, sound editing, etc.) and there’s a chance that Mendes could pick up a nomination for Best Director.
Let the 1917 Oscar campaign begin.
Will 1917 be a force at the 2020 Oscars? Leave your thoughts in the comments below or tweet us, @unafraidshow, or email us immad@unafraidshow.com.
The chaos of awards season has only just begun. This past week, both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released its nominations, which means it’s one step closer to the Oscars in February. The Irishman, Marriage Story, andOnce Upon a Time In Hollywood all took giant steps towards Oscar glory while Little Women, Uncut Gems, and The Farewell have a lot of campaigning left to do. Here are the biggest Oscar takeaways from these nominations.
Four (Maybe Five) Movies Can Best Picture
Parasite / Madman Films
While the field of Best Picture nominees slowly narrows, the frontrunners are clear. As of 12/13, there are four films that can win Best Picture: The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. These four films are towards the top of every expert’s ranking on GoldDerby. The only film that could make it a five-way race is 1917, which hits theaters on Christmas Day. The Golden Globes will announce their Best Picture winners in early January, but the most important show for films looking to win Best Picture at the Oscars is the Producers Guild Awards (PGA). 21 of the 31 winners for Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the PGA Awards have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Win at the PGA Awards and you become the frontrunner.
Robert De Niro And Adam Sandler Are In Trouble
Best Actor is one of the most crowded races of the season. There are 10-15 performances that have legitimate cases for a Best Acting nomination. Two of the most notable names that are on the outside looking in are Robert De Niro for The Irishman and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems. Both De Niro and Sandler failed to receive a best acting nomination at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. This is less than ideal for their Oscar chances. De Niro has a better chance to crack into the field because of his previous Oscar wins, but Sandler is in serious trouble despite winning Best Actor from the National Board of Review. That being said, not all hope is lost. Bradley Cooper received a best acting nomination for American Sniper despite being shut out from the Globes and SAGs. The precedent is there, but the difficulty remains.
Can Anyone Beat Renée Zellweger or Laura Dern?
By the time the Oscars air on February 9, Renée Zellweger and Laura Dern will be experts at acceptance speeches. Both Zellweger and Dern are huge frontrunners for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively. The Academy loves transformations and honoring “Old Hollywood” so Zellweger portraying Judy Garland is like using L + Down, R + C-Right, R + C-Up, L + Right, L + C-Down, R + C-Up, L + Right, R + Down, L + Left, L + R + C-Right for invincibility in N64’s Goldeneye. Barring an unexpected nomination, Dern’s only competition is Jennifer Lopez, who was fantastic in Hustlers. In any other year, Lopez would be the favorite, but Dern’s on fire with an Emmy win and Golden Globe win since 2017. It’s her time to win the Oscar.
No Love For Little Women
This is my biggest surprise of awards season. Little Womenhas all the components for an awards season movie: Established filmmaker (Greta Gerwig), star-studded cast (Saoirse Ronan, Florence Pugh, Emma Watson, Eliza Scanlen, Timothée Chalamet, Laura Dern, and MERYL STREEP), and a favorable release date (Christmas Day). Little Women checks all of the boxes and yet the film received two Golden Globes nominations and zero SAG nominations. It makes no sense. After nine Critics’ Choice Award nominations, Little Women has the ability to make a late-push for the Oscars, which is what I believe will happen. Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Score are all possibilities.
Check back in January for Oscar nomination predictions. In the meantime, go see Parasite.
The race for Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is heating up, or is it? Back in July, these were my early Best Picture predictions.
These predictions aren’t bad, but there are a few misfires. Your honor, please remove A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Cats (LOL), and Toy Story 4 from the list. Now, let’s go with the locks of the group. The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are guaranteed to be nominated for Best Picture. From there, I’m confident in keeping Ford v. Ferrari and Little Women on this list because of their positive reviews and well-respected directors (James Mangold for Ford v. Ferrari and Greta Gerwig for Little Women). I’m also going to keep Bombshell (previously titled Fair and Balanced) for now because of strong buzz after its initial screening last week. Plus, it’s a reflection on the political climate (think Vice from last year) and that should play well with voters.
So who rounds out the list? For argument’s sake, let’s say that the Academy will choose ten films to receive Best Picture nominations, which means there are five spots remaining. (Best Picture has not included 10 nominations since 2010. It’s usually been eight or nine.) One of those spots is going to Marriage Story, which has a chance to win the top prize. Because it won the Golden Lion at Venice and its box office success, Joker should get a nomination as well.
Now comes the hard part. With three spots remaining, the Academy can go in one of many directions. Parasite, the South Korean thriller from Bong Joon-ho, has been met with universal acclaim and should win Best International Feature Film. That being said, will it also be nominated for Best Picture? Remember that last year, Roma won International Film, but lost in Best Picture. Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi’s satirical black comedy about Hitler youth, won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. Why is that significant? The last seven winners of that award went on to be nominated for Best Picture. The Farewell won critics over earlier this Summer, but the film’s best chance at a nomination may be in Best Actress for Awkwafina. The Two Popes has not been seen by most people but it received a warm reception on the festival circuit. Finally, watch out for 1917, a WWI film about two young British soldiers racing to deliver a message to save their troops against the Germans. WWI epic with an Academy Award-winning director (Sam Mendes for American Beauty) has a Best Picture nomination written all over it.
We’re still over a month away from Golden Globes‘ nominations, which will be a good barometer for the Oscars. That being said, here are my Best Picture nominations as of Oct. 25.
Best Picture Predictions
1917
Bombshell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
As for the answer I posed in the headline, there is no true frontrunner, but the three films near the top are The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
What are your Best Picture predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
The year is more than halfway over and the field for Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is hazy, to say the least. Most of the films that are drawing buzz have not premiered yet at major film festivals, which means their theatrical release date will be in the fall. There’s no such thing as a “sure thing,” but this year, in particular, has more questions than answers.
Where are all of the contenders in the first half of the year? If you’re looking for this year’s Get Out or Mad Max: Fury Road, which both hit theaters before June in their respective years, your search will come up short. That’s not to say there haven’t’ been any critically acclaimed films or box office success that will garner awards consideration. Us, Apollo11, Toy Story 4*, and The Farewell have all been lauded by critics across the board. However, the likelihood that these films receive Best Picture nominations is slim.
*Toy Story 3 was the last animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Depending on how the back half of the year goes will determine if Toy Story 4 can sneak into the Best Picture race.
The lack of Best Picture buzz for the first half of the year is concerning, but not problematic. The majority of films looking to be in awards contention position their release dates between September and December/early January so they stay fresh in voters’ minds and can be seen at the box office while the awards are happening. In fact, the last film to win Best Picture that had its release date before July was The Hurt Locker, which had its release in late June 2009.
Although the first half of the year provided little hope, the future is still bright. The film community won’t have to wait until September to see a contender. In fact, the first film that will receive major Oscar buzz premieres on July, 26. That film is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
If you could draw up the perfect film to receive awards consideration, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be the blueprint. It includes huge movie stars like Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Leonardo DiCaprio, who is returning to the big screen for the first time since his Oscar-winning performance in The Revenant. The film involves a well-known and well-received director in Quentin Tarantino, who previously won two Academy Awards for Best Original Screenplay. Plus, the Academy loves films about Hollywood that capture the true essence of cinema, which is the very nature of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The film had its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, where Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian gave the film 5/5 stars and said it’s “entirely outrageous, disorientating, irresponsible, and also brilliant.”
Speaking of festivals, there are three major ones that typically serve as launching pads for the Best Picture race. They are the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF). All three festivals will occur over the course of a few weeks at the end of August through the middle of September. Last year’s Best Picture winner, Green Book, premiered at TIFF. In 2017, The Shape of Water premiered at Venice. In 2016, Moonlight premiered at Telluride. It’s no secret as to why films with awards’ aspirations premiere at these three major festivals. If a film has a strong premiere at one of the three festivals, it’s odds for entering the Best Picture conversation dramatically increase.
According to Variety, Joker with Joaquin Phoenix, Bradd Pitt’s space epic Ad Astra, Tom Harper’s The Aeronauts, Fernando Meirelles’ The Pope, and The Burnt Orange Heresy starring Mick Jagger are all rumored to be showing at Venice. Since 2014, at least one film has been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars that was shown at Venice so expect the same to happen this year. The lineups have not been announced for Telluride or Toronto, but it’s a guarantee that films from the festival will draw Best Picture hype.
Films that should also accumulate serious Best Picture conversations: Martin Scorsese’s star-studded The Irishman, Ford v. Ferrari starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale, the musical adaptation of Cats featuring Taylor Swift, Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Goldfinch starring Ansel Elgort, Ang’s Lee Gemini Man starring Will Smith, and Jay Roach’s Fair and Balanced about the former head of Fox News, Roger Ailes.
There’s bound to be at least a few films not previously mentioned that sneak up on the film community and join the Best Picture race. That being said, here are my best guesses for Best Picture nominees at the 2020 Oscars as of July 17.
Best Picture Predictions
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ad Astra
Cats
Fair and Balanced
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Toy Story 4
Only time will tell as to which films receive nominations. However, with an abundance of films premiering these next five months, the Best Picture race is about to take off.
