After nine games, it’s crystal clear that the Washington Huskies have problems. Their five and four record exemplifies that. Even worse, the Huskies are two and four in Pac-12 conference games. For fans, it feels like a lost season. Expectations were as high as College Football Playoffs but fell to hopes of any bowl appearance.
Against Cal, Washington led 19-17 with just two minutes and five seconds left. Versus Oregon, the Huskies were up 28-14 in the second half. Most recently, against Utah, UW was up 21-13 in the third quarter.
And yet, Washington lost each of these games. They collapsed. In the first halves, the Huskies look dominant as can be. Eason and company, as well as the defense, make play after play. But then, once the game is on the line, something shifts. 2019 is full of difficult and painful learning opportunities.
But, here’s the ugliest part of it all. Each of these losses came at home. They lost three games, after leading inside Husky Stadium. Even with home-field advantage (evidenced by referee favor in “Scorecasting” by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim), Washington couldn’t close out games. Honestly, who wants to go to a Husky game if they keep losing at home?
Washington’s hopes for a bowl game
Thankfully, because Washington isn’t a dreadful team, they still should make a bowl game. According to experts, Washington will play in the Alamo, Holiday or Redbox Bowl.. Kyle Bonagura from ESPN predicts UW to play in the Alamo Bowl against Baylor. Also from ESPN, Mark Schlabach thinks that the Huskies will land in the Holiday Bowl versus Michigan. Joe Tansey from Bleacher Report has Washington playing against Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports projects UW to face off against Indiana in the Redbox Bowl.
If nothing else, a bowl win is a great way to finish the season.
Unfortunately, Jacob Eason is a top quarterback prospect in the 2020 NFL draft. Walter Football ranks him fourth among eligible quarterbacks. Additionally, drafttek.com has Eason at 50th overall and their sixth quarterback. He’s a strong, NFL prospect. Considering the turmoil in the NFL right now with quarterbacks and the success of Gardner Minshew, Eason will get drafted early if he enters the 2020 draft.
It took too long to get Puka Nacua involved. For some reason, Chris Peterson continued to play seniors over more talented receivers. Granted, it’s easy to trust seniority over raw talent. But, according to many beat reporters and scouts, Puka Nacua turned heads in practices. Then, once inserted into games, he displayed playmaking abilities. Improper self-scouting cost Washington points.
Because the Huskies lose Aaron Fuller, Andre Baccellia, Chico McClatcher and likely Hunter Bryant this season, it will force them to play different receivers on offense. But, Nacua is just one wide receiver highlighting a larger issue. The Huskies need to prioritize talent and upside over age and safety.
Better execution on third down
On third down this season, the Huskies converted 41 of 115 opportunities (35.65-percent). Some of the most painful punts to watch were followed by game-changing drives by Cal, Oregon, and Utah. Better innovation is needed. Which, considering Washington’s two and four record in Pac-12 games, should be an obvious desire. UW knows these opponents. It shouldn’t be this difficult to game-plan against familiar opponents.
Less field goals, more touchdowns for Washington
This season, in the red zone, Washington scored 21 touchdowns and kicked 13 field goals. Against competitive teams, UW settled for safety and squandered their winning chances. Of note, the Huskies are 14 of 21 (66.67-percent) on fourth down this season. Why not go for it more often? They certainly can’t do worse than this season.
Welcome to the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11. Overall, it was a great week for the conference. The two best teams had great performances on national television while the east coast was still awake. However, Pac-12 refs managed to steal the show and become the center of attention. The officiating is so bad that even commissioner Larry Scott who said Pac-12 referees were on par with other conferences at Pac-12 Media had to admit what we all know:
“I sit through a review every single week with David Coleman, the head of our officiating, and I can tell you there’s a significant number of mistakes every week,” Scott said according to Arash Markazi of the Los Angeles Times.
Players and fans deserve better than to have crucial games be affected by horrendous officiating.
A few weeks ago a writer put out a parity “Pac-12 simulator” for the rest of the season that had every team finishing between 5-7 and 7-5. With the exception of Oregon and Utah, he was not far off. There is a logjam of parity and averageness below the two elite teams. Weirdly, UCLA is still alive to win the south, but that would require beating Utah.
If Oregon and Utah meet with 1-loss in the Pac-12 Championship, the winner should land a spot in the College Football Playoff Top 4.
Teams are ranked by the correct criteria: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. Only games played matter. No consideration is given for future games. The Pac-12 Power Rankings will available on Unafraid Show every Monday morning. Make sure you send your comments and grievances to immad@unafraidshow.com.
12. Colorado Buffaloes (3-5, 1-4)
Last Week: 14-31 (L) at UCLA
Things are continuing to spiral out of control for the Buffaloes. They have lost five straight games and six of their last seven. Colorado has only been competitive in two of the six losses. Mel Tucker’s team appears to have quit on him the same way they quit on Mike MacIntyre when they lost seven straight to close last season. Those same players are there, which means the roster and program need a complete overhaul.
The Buffaloes are recruiting a lot of junior college players which should add a lot of depth and hungry new talent for 2020. With Stanford, Washington, and Utah left on the schedule the Buffaloes might drop eight straight to finish the season.
11. Arizona Wildcats (4-5, 2-4)
Last Week: 28-56 (L) vs Oregon State
The Wildcats are a complete disaster. It is clear that this team is short on top tier playmakers on both sides of the ball. But, that is not even their biggest problem. For weeks I have noted that this team has no identity. Kevin Sumlin has continuously played quarterback shuffle between Khalil Tate and Grant Gunnell. The two quarterbacks couldn’t have more different styles of play. This causes confusion amongst the players and doesn’t allow Arizona to built offensive continuity.
Sumlin also fired his defensive coordinator Marcel Yates last week. The team proceeded to give up 56 points and 572 yards of total offense. Arizona moved into last place in the Pac-12 in total defense (481 ypg) and scoring defense (37.3 ppg).
10. Cal Golden Bears (4-4, 1-4)
Last Week: IDLE
Cal had a week off which means they are one week closer to getting their quarterback Chase Garbers back. The Bears broken offense has had a dramatic effect on their defense. Bad field position and turnovers have consistently put the defense in positions that even the ’85 Chicago Bears couldn’t defend against. Cal’s defense knows that do have any shot this week against Washington State, they must score points with a pick-six or fumble-six.
At this point, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Cal to make a bowl game.
9. Washington State Cougars (5-4, 2-4)
Last Week: IDLE
The Cougars are statistically the best offense in the Pac-12. They average 41 points per game and 521 yards per game. The floor has just fallen in on the moral of Wazzu since blowing a 32-point lead against UCLA. Mike Leach has three games to find one win to get his team to their 5th consecutive bowl game.
There is a term in the NFL called the “rookie wall”. That is when rookies have played more snaps and have been grinding for consecutive weeks than they did in college. Arizona State has hit the college version of that. Herm Edwards’s team is extremely young at key positions and it is starting to show.
They lived on the edge and won many early-season games by the hairs on their chinny chin chins. Now, as the season grows longer their focus faded and their youth is showing. This off week should revive the Sun Devils and they should perform much better against USC this week.
7. Washington Huskies (5-4, 2-4)
Last Week: 28-33 (L) vs Utah
We cannot ignore the results and allow any bias to affect the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11. Chris Petersen is a really good coach and Washington is a talented football team. However, they are 2-4 in conference play with losses to Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Utah. Teams are their record, and UW is a middle of the road Pac-12 team right now despite playing close games against Oregon and Utah.
Jacob Eason is such an enigma to me. In the Utah game, he made throws in the first half that prove he could be an NFL 1st round pick. Then he proceeded to throw two awful interceptions including a pix-six that turned the game in Utah’s favor.
The Huskies are a young football team on defense and should be much better next season. However, the Washington fans seem to be growing impatient with the coaching staff’s lack of signature wins.
6. Stanford Cardinal (4-4, 3-3)
Last Week: IDLE
Stanford has been extremely beaten up this season, particularly at the quarterback position. The Cardinal have been night and day depending on their quarterback situation. If the quarterback is KJ Costello or Davis Mills the team can function passing the football which then opens up their running game. Hopefully, the off week allowed the team to get healthy and they can get the six wins needed to get to a bowl game.
There is not an honest person around that could say they believed Oregon State would be second in the Pac-12 North after ten weeks of football. Jonathan Smith has far exceeded expectations in 2019. This is the same team that lost seven games by at least 21 points in 2018. Oregon State’s offense has carried them this season. The offensive combinations of Luton, Pierce, Jefferson, and Hodgins have been a nightmare for opposing defenses (except Utah). They are averaging almost 34 ppg and 431 yards per game.
Don’t sleep on DE Hamilcar Rashed for Pac-12 defensive player of the year. He leads the conference with 12 sacks.
Beavers fans who were just hunting to find winnable games on the schedule are now looking at the possibility of making a bowl game.
4. UCLA Bruins (4-5, 4-2)
Last Week: 31-14 (W) vs Colorado
This cannot be real. UCLA is #4 in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11. Who behind them do you put in front of a team that is 4-2 in the conference? NOBODY.
Chip Kelly has his team peaking at the right time. The Bruins even control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South. Win their last three games against Utah, USC, and Cal and they are in the Pac-12 Championship. I’m not a madman so I don’t see that happening, but just making a bowl game would be a huge victory.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is growing up in front of our eyes and is making better decisions each week. Even UCLA’s defense has improved over the last few weeks. Their defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro has lit a fire under his team and they have responded.
If UCLA does the unthinkable and wins the Pac-12 South I am going to spike the football so hard on everyone who called me crazy in the preseason.
3. USC Trojans (5-4, 4-2)
Last Week: 24-56 (L) vs Oregon
USC doesn’t feel good to me at the three spot, but who the hell else could I put here? The Trojans are playing below expectations and have a head coach that nearly everyone believes will be replaced at the end of this season. But, they are the only team to beat Utah and are 4-2 in the conference.
USC was just demolished by Oregon. It was one of the first times that Clay Helton’s team looked like their will had been broken. His players play hard for him because they like him. College football is a results-based business and the results aren’t good enough for the Trojans.
Is Utah better than Oregon? There are a ton of people in Salt Lake City and a couple of people in the national media who believe so. Kyle Whittingham has his team firing on all cylinders. They are tough, physical, and disciplined. The only knock on this team is that for the first time in a long time their kicking game is suspect.
I have said that Utah won’t be able to ride their defense and Zack Moss to the Pac-12 Championship game. I thought QB Tyler Huntley would have to have 2 special performances to get them there. But, that looks to be untrue right now. Maybe his special ability is his leadership and calming effect on the team.
Zack Moss is a workhorse. The only way to beat Utah is to stop him.
1. Oregon Ducks (8-1, 6-0)
Last Week: 56-24 (W) at USC
The Ducks had a statement game against USC for the entire nation to see. After being held scoreless in the first quarter, they went on a 56-7 scoring run. Oregon is a complete football team. When Oregon’s offense, defense, and special teams are firing at the same time, they may be one of the four best teams in the nation.
To this point, Oregon looks like the toughest team in the Pac-12. They have faced injuries to starters and overcome having a target on their back every week. Every team in the Pac-12 wants to knock the shine off the Ducks. Week 11 is an off week for the Ducks to get healthy and mentally regroup for the stretch run.
Check back every Monday for the next Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 11.
The Buffaloes had the task of defeating USC, a team they are winless against in 13 tries. The setting was perfect. The Folsom Field blackout was ferocious, and the fans brought the energy. But somehow, the Colorado Buffaloes found a way to lose a gut-wrencher 35-31 after leading 31-21 in the 4th quarter of week 9.
Let’s trackback to late in the third quarter, when the Buffaloes had the football with the chance to go up by three scores and, in theory, put the game away. Steven Montez was down after taking a ferocious hit. It was the turning point of the game and completely changed the game dynamic. Montez would pass the concussion protocol test, but after he came back to start the fourth quarter, he was not the same quarterback. He was playing so well and looked to have a legacy-defining game in his senior year. He could have been the first quarterback in Colorado history to beat USC. He should have been the first quarterback in Colorado history to beat USC.
Encouraging First Half, but Colorado Can’t Get a Lucky Bounce
There was concern about how the Buffaloes would perform after their last two losses were by a combined score of 86-13 (45-3 to Oregon, and 41-10 to Washington State). USC scored one minute into the game, but the defense was able to hold their own in spurts. They forced a turnover on USC’s second possession, as freshman K.J. Trujillo picked off USC quarterback Kedon Slovis. The offense would score two touchdowns on their next two possessions after the interception. It felt as if the stars were aligning for the Buffaloes, as they were up 17-7.
However, on USC’s next drive they drove into the red zone. The defense was determined to make a stop though. On a second down play, Slovis was trying to get rid of the ball and threw it dangerously into the group of Buffaloes chasing him. Somehow, it eluded all three of them. On the next play, Slovis would run for a first down and fumble. Again, the Buffaloes could not take advantage and fall on the football even though it was within their grasp. Next play: USC scores to cut the lead to 17-14. The Buffaloes could have gone back on offense with a two score lead. Seven points were huge in a four-point game, and if the Buffaloes get one of two separate bounces to go their way, their chances to win the game were much better.
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Third Quarter Sets Up for Buffs Victory, but Montez Gets Hit
The offense was able to get the big play from their star, wide receiver Laviska Shenault, to start the third quarter, as he caught a 71-yard touchdown on a pass from Montez. Shenault, possibly a high-end first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, had his best game of the season with nine receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown. Despite USC scoring on their next drive, the Buffaloes were able to respond by marching right down the field. Montez would score on a 17-yard touchdown run to take a 31-21 lead, and USC would miss a field goal on the subsequent possession. The Buffaloes would get the ball back primed to go up by three possessions.
Then Montez was hit. There were collective boos from the CU faithful, as USC could have been arguably been called for roughing the passer. The Buffaloes could have folded, but the defense would respond by forcing USC into another punt. Montez would be back. The team could have quit, especially after enduring two straight 30+ point losses and after losing seven straight games to close out the 2018 season. They did not, and looked as if they were going to get a signature Pac-12 win for first-year coach Mel Tucker.
So Close to a Great Buffaloes Moment, but Unable to Attain It
The Buffaloes were penalized 13 times for 109 yards, and on the next drive they would be called for holding to stop the drive, and USC would turn it up on offense the next drive to cut the lead to 31-28. Montez was throwing inaccurately as the offense only gained one first down on the next two drives. However, Mel Tucker had a decision to make, as the team was down on the USC 38 facing a 4th-and-4. Even though the defense has given up 30 points in every game this season, he trusted them to get a stop and keep USC under 30 points.
Would his decision pay off? At first, the defense looked ferocious, as they sacked Kedon Slovis and made him fumble again. The Buffaloes were not able to get the turnover, as USC got the lucky bounce yet again. They would gain 19 yards on 2nd-and-20 to get into a manageable third down. While this play did not determine the game, 2nd-and-20 was such a letdown because the defense practically gave their first down sack away.
USC would convert the third down, and would score four plays later on a 37-yard touchdown pass from Kedon Slovis to Michael Pittman Jr. The Buffaloes’ defense had a chance to allow under 30 points for the first time this season. They failed to allow under 30 points for the first time this season.
The Buffaloes offense would have 2:15 to score a touchdown and win the game. After getting one first down, the Buffaloes faced a 2nd-and-4. Montez was unable to connect with K.D. Nixon and Shenault on the next two plays, as the timing between them seemed off. On fourth down, Montez would throw a swing route behind the line of scrimmage to Alex Fontenot that would only gain three yards. Being one yard short of the first down seemed fitting for the Buffaloes in this game, as they were so close to a great moment. They were unable to attain that great moment.
Where do the Colorado Buffaloes go from here?
Mel Tucker harped on penalties as the main reason the Buffaloes lost this game. While there were no specific penalties that were the main cause of the Buffaloes losing this game. On their drive to go up 10-7, the offensive line had two separate false start penalties in the goal-to-go situation even though they would end up scoring. They were playing with fire, as they were unable to be disciplined in many aspects of the game.
Mel Tucker said in his post-game comments that he believes the Buffaloes can beat every team that remains on their schedule. He also said that every team on the Buffaloes schedule can beat them. Playing disciplined will be key for the Buffaloes, as there is now even less room for error if they want to make a bowl game. Making it to 6-6 would be a resounding success for the 2019 Colorado Buffaloes, but that goal is looking less attainable with every loss, regardless of the margin of defeat.
They sit at 3-5 going into College Football Week 10 against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. This is a game that some will pick the Colorado Buffaloes to win despite being a 6.5-point underdog. The Buffaloes were able to beat UCLA 38-16 last season, and will go into the game encouraged by many aspects of their performance against USC. However, discipline and situational game-management will be key to the Buffaloes getting win number four. If being competitive in six out of their first eight games is any indication, the Buffaloes will have a chance in the fourth quarter. It will depend on if they take full advantage of that chance.
The PAC-12 has had plenty of surprising results this season, but how have they fared against the Vegas oddsmakers? Here is a look at each team’s Pac-12 betting record, not in terms of wins and losses, but against the spread (ATS) as determined by Vegas Insiders.
As one might expect, Vegas does a pretty good job of keeping team’s around .500.
Pac-12 Betting Records ATS
Oregon State (5-2)
The Beavers of Oregon State have beat the spread at a higher rate than anyone else in the PAC-12, even though they actually haven’t been winning actual football games much this year.
Oregon State took a beating from Oklahoma State to begin the year and an even bigger beating from Utah a few weeks ago, their two big losses on the season. Otherwise, they have managed to keep games just a little closer than Vegas thinks they will, which has helped them win their gamblers some money.
They open as -5.5 underdogs to the Sun Devils of Arizona State this weekend.
Washington (5-3)
Washington is tied with Utah for the second-best record against the spread this season, but even they still have three losses.
UW cost betters big time with their ugly losses to Cal (aided by a thunder delay) and Stanford, for which they were -13.5 and -13 point favorites, respectively.
Their third loss was as three point underdogs to Oregon, a game they lost by four, 35-31. So if you are picking with the spread this year, the Huskies may be your best bet of the season.
They are -3.5 point favorites against Utah this weekend. Do you lay the points?
Utah (5-3)
Utah is 7-1 on the season, but they have been favored in every one of their games in 2019, and kept two games a little too close for Vegas’ liking, giving them just a 5-3 record against the spread.
The Utes loss to USC obviously hurt them, they were -3.5 favorites, but so did their 35-17 win over Northern Illinois (-23) and their 31-0 win over Idaho State (-37.5).
Apparently, Utah is worth a gamble when they have big spreads, as they have struggled to meet those so far this season.
They are -3.5 point favorites over Washington this weekend.
Oregon (4-4)
Oregon is one of three PAC-12 schools that is perfectly even against the spread this season.
While they may be 7-1 on the year, a handful of very large spreads has made it tough for them to beat the spread regularly this year. That includes a -39 point spread against Montana (they won 35-3) and a -21 point spread over Cal (17-7).
Oregon is five point favorites over USC this weekend, and based on their previous track record, it’s hard to say how they’ll fare this weekend.
USC (4-4)
Speaking of USC, they are one of the other PAC-12 schools that is even against the spread this season.
A surprising loss to BYU (-4.5 point favorites) and a two-touchdown drubbing at the hands of the Huskies contributed to two of USC’s losses against the spread, while keeping a game against Notre Dame exceptionally close gave them a key win.
USC is five point underdogs against the Ducks in what should be one of the better PAC-12 games of the weekend.
Colorado (4-4)
The Buffs were actually doing pretty well against the spread before three straight ugly losses, to Arizona, Oregon and Washington State, hurt their record in the PAC-12 and against the spread.
They rebounded with a close 35-31 loss to USC last week (a win against a 10.5 spread) but will have to keep UCLA within striking distance if they want to cover the -6.5 spread this weekend.
Washington State (3-5)
Washington State lost five straight against the spread in the middle of the season, which also coincided with three actual losses, completing derailing their originally promising season.
The worst was the loss to UCLA, for which they were favored by 18 points and looked likely to cover, until a second half collapse cost them the game.
They also lost games to Houston (-9 favorites) and Arizona State (-2). At this point, they are arguably the most volatile team in the conference and are not someone I would want to put my money on.
California (3-5)
Cal has had three surprising victories this season, one against UW early in the year, another against Mississippi a few weeks later, and a close 17-7 loss to Oregon that easily covered the 21 point spread.
Otherwise they have been fairly predictable, making them a decently safe team to bet on thanks to their above average defense, which frequently keeps opposing teams from running up the score.
Stanford (3-5)
Stanford’s surprising win over Washington and their crushing loss to UCLA the following week notwithstanding, this has been a fairly predictable season for the Cardinal.
They have beat the teams they were expected to beat, and faltered against the teams that are better than them.
More of that can be expected from this team going forward, who next take on Colorado on November 9.
Arizona State (3-5)
Arizona State has won three games they were expected to lose this season, against Michigan State, Cal and Washington State.
However, that’s the extent of their victories against the spread this year. They weren’t able to secure big enough victories against Kent State and Cal-State Sacramento earlier in the year, and they suffered losses to Colorado and UCLA that they shouldn’t have.
The Sun Devils are a tricky team to predict this year, and should not be anyone’s top choice to gamble on at this point.
UCLA (3-4-1)
UCLA and Arizona pushed back on September 28, with a three point spread proving prophetic in a 20-17 win for the Wildcats.
UCLA’s overall record against the spread is pretty weak, but they have been hot lately with victories over Stanford and Arizona State, both covering the spread easily.
They get Colorado with a -6.5 spread next, and based on the hot streak they are on this could be a profitable bet for fans.
Arizona (2-5-1) ATS
The Wildcats are on a downward spiral as of late, both in the win column and against the spread. Arizona has lost their last three games and while they weren’t favored in any of them, they failed to cover the spread as well.
Arizona does have two wins this season, narrowly defeating both Texas Tech and Colorado in games they were not favored in.
Still, this is a tough team to trust on the betting lines, and entering as -5.5 favorites against Oregon State next weekend is a tough bet to get behind.
After a trip to Salt Lake City to take on the University of Utah Utes ended with Cal being shutout for the first time in 20 years. Against Utah, last year’s Pac-12 champions, the Bears were outclassed from the start. The defense which has held the last 14 opponents in a row under 24 points has been teetering on the edge for the last couple weeks. Finally succumbing to the Utes (35-0). The Utes had no trouble dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and limited the Bears to just 43 offensive plays.
Although things haven’t gone the way of the Bears as of late, losers of four straight conference games with injuries derailing a promising start to the season. The Bears refuse to give in or give up, senior consensus mid-season All-American, and Chuck Bednarik Award semi-finalist Evan Weaver will have none of it.
Salvaging the Season and Getting to a Bowl Game
At (4-4), while showing tenacity, perseverance, and a never quit mentality, the Bears are more likely than not playing out the string for bowl eligibility. Currently possessing a (1-4) conference record, the Bears are the Pac-12 North division cellar dwellers.
However wins over Washington State (11/9), Stanford (11/23), and USC (11/16) can go a long way to securing a bid in a bowl game. The Pac-12 will send six representatives to participate in the Las Vegas Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Cheez-It Bowl, Redbox Bowl, Sun Bowl, and the Alamo Bowl.
Bowl games are excellent recruiting sellers. In order for the Bears to be able to once again challenge for conference supremacy, they need to get more talented across the board. As last reported by Bears Insider, Cal has 23 commits for the 2020 class thus far, 22 of these incoming players are three-star recruits. In order to remain competitive in the Pac-12, Cal is going to need to add premium pieces to the puzzle.
What Can the Cal Bears Rely on and What Do They Need?
Coach Justin Wilcox has been setting the foundation of his football program and the nation has taken notice. At one point, the Bears were ranked as high as #15 in the AP poll. Of Cal’s multiple marquee wins, the most exciting had to be against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Quarterback Chase Garbers had the best game of his career throwing 23/35 for 357 yards and 4 TDs. But the game was sealed by that Bear defense stonewalling the Rebels at the goal line. In the next game against the Arizona State Sun Devils, Garbers was 9/12 for 117 yards and a TD prior to getting an upper-body injury which has taken the majority of his season away. What does it all mean?
What it means is that coach Wilcox and his staff have a daunting task ahead of them as the Bears have demonstrated quite a bit of holes in need of filling. Moving forward the Bears have their starter at quarterback, but must develop a capable backup or two. Since Garbers’ injury, the offense has come to a screeching halt. When Garbers returns the time to surround him with weapons is now. Speed kills and the Bears need more of it.
On offense and defense, the Bears are in possession of great football speed and playing speed. Meaning in order to match up with some of the more marquee teams such as Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Utah, Stanford, and UCLA’s of the Pac-12 Cal is going to need a couple of burners and big bodies.
Cal Golden Bears Recruiting
As far as recruiting goes the Bears have plenty of things working in their favor. With the freshly renovated Aaron Rodgers Locker Room, Cal Memorial Stadium and a beautiful campus. They have a coach who is recognized as a premier coach, a program that has been ranked at some point in each of the last two seasons. A solid quarterback, and a school whose alumni have and will join the ranks of pro footballs Hall of Fame.
Not to mention an opportunity to be one of the contributing players who helped get the Bears back over the hump and possibly the first Pac-12 team into the College Football playoff equation. A place where you can achieve one of the best educations in the country, becoming a Bear should be the decision of every young high school hopeful.
This weekend, Pac-12 football fans got it all. Oregon and Washington State certainly lit up the field offensively. The Ducks are currently ranked 6th in Unafraidshow’s College Football Rankings. Likewise, many Pac-12 NFL players gave us memorable performances in week 8. Here they are!
Best Quarterback Performance
Gardner Minshew II – Washington State – Jacksonville Jaguars
Minshew magic is back! Let’s go!
Unlike the rest of football fans, Pac-12 NFL fans knew that Minshew was for real. We knew a long time ago. It’s just great to see everyone else accept it.
Against a competent New York Jets defense, Minshew didn’t flinch. He compiled 279 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also let the Jets sack him twice. But, for those who watched the game, his pocket-presence is next level. Minshew’s movement in the pocket and ability to extend plays is incredible.
Last, and definitely important, Minshew threw zero interceptions. Again. Overall, he has just 2 interceptions and 13 touchdowns this season. The sixth-round rookie is playing far above any expectation.
Gardner Minshew for Rookie of the Year!
Best Running Back Performance
Christian McCaffrey – Stanford – Carolina Panthers
Against the league’s second-best defense (New England Patriots are clear first), the Carolina Panthers flopped. They only scored 13 points, while the 49ers rolled through 51 points. However, that didn’t stop all-star, Pac-12 NFL running back Christian McCaffrey from creating highlights.
To say that this season has been rough for the Pittsburgh Steelers is to say the least. After a promising 2017 season and a breakout 2018 season, everyone was ready for Juju Smith-Schuster to keep the hype train going. With the departure of Antonio Brown (to mental illness?), Smith-Schuster was primed for an elite 2019 campaign.
But, all hope went down with Ben Roethlisberger. However, Smith-Schuster still has the ability to pop on the field. In week 8, he cleared the 100-yard mark for the first time this season. Granted, this week he played the Miami Dolphins (#tankfortua), but he’s a good wide receiver.
His plus-16.5 (No. 20) Production Premium and plus-39.2-percent Target Premium (No. 10) show that he still has talent, but he’s just trapped on an anemic offense.
Best Tight End Performance
Austin Hooper – Stanford – Atlanta Falcons
Even with Matt Schaub under center, Austin Hooper was a baller. He reeled in 6 of 7 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. He was one reason why the Pac-12 NFL fans didn’t switch channels. Hooper’s late score helped the Falcons attempt a last-minute comeback (or at least cover the a plus-7.5 spread).
Austin Hooper has set a new career high with five receiving touchdowns this season, which leads all tight ends this season.
UW Football Faces Oregon and Utah in Back-to-Back Weeks
Thought Oregon was Difficult? Well, this weekend the UW football team faces off against the 9th-ranked Utah Utes. Per Oddshark, the Utes are two-point road favorites.
What Makes Utah so Good?
Dominant Defense
Defense 😤@Utah_Football ranks top 3 in the nation in multiple stat categories:
1st in rushing defense (56.4 ypg) 2nd in first downs allowed (101) 3rd in total defense (231.0) 3rd in 3rd-down conversions (26.3%)#goutes#Pac12FBpic.twitter.com/fV3gQrvTf8
Somehow, the Utah Utes have a fantastic offense as well. Impressively, they’ve scored at least 30 points in six of their eight games. Tyler Huntley’s 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception rate perfectly complements Utah’s dominant defense.
Additionally, Zack Moss is the perfect game-closing running back. His 6.6 yards-per-carry (on 728 total yards) and 10 touchdowns display this. Moss is the second-best running back in the Pac-12 and Utah’s offense is lucky to have him.
As noted above, Utah has a dominant defense that destroys its opponents. Moreover, they have an offense that routinely scores at least 30 points. The Huskies have to bring their A-game in order to get a victory.
Convert Third and Fourth Downs
Currently, the UW football team ranks 106th in third-down success rate. Against Oregon, this was detrimental. They converted just 3 of 13 third downs. Oregon came back from a 14-point deficit to win. If Chris Peterson wants a UW football win, he needs to create opportunities for success. Third-down play-calling may seem the most important. But, it’s the calls on first and second down that ultimately put a team in third-down success.
On top of that, the Huskies need to continue their fourth-down bravery. Last week, against Oregon, their fourth-down conversions were key to offensive success. Even though the last one didn’t work out, Washington needs to keep going for it (process-over-results).
As easy as it is to play the seniors, UW football’s been better with young players. Playing the young, talented wide receivers like Puka Nacua is a big component of success. In order to win, Chris Peterson needs to prioritize talent over age.
Pass-Pass-Pass
Last week, Jacob Eason and company displayed offensive effectiveness against a stout Oregon team. They broke Oregon’s elite defense. Granted, they didn’t win the game, but they still showed life. Eason needs to lead this team to another offensive performance. Utah’s dominant line won’t give any room to Washington’s running backs. So, it’s ultimately up to Jacob Eason to step up.
Welcome to the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10. Aside from Oregon and Utah, it is nearly impossible to pick winners consistently from week to week in conference play. Teams who get a big win seem to get blown out the following week. It makes no sense, but that’s life in the Pac-12. The North division is all but wrapped up by Oregon while the South division is up for grabs. Even UCLA is still very alive to win the south. USC still controls its own destiny. Two teams, Oregon and Utah have a shot at landing a berth in the College Football Playoff Top 4 if things shake out in their favor. That also makes the Rose Bowl up for grabs if Oregon gets in the playoff. So, keep your eyes on Utah vs Washington this Saturday.
I would be wrong if I didn’t mention how brutal the Pac-12 refs were this weekend. Until this weekend I thought they had been better. But, they came back to full 2018 form last week. We have seen in the NFL that challenging pass interference calls is stupid and doesn’t work. But there has to be something done to train the refs to be better.
Teams are ranked by the correct criteria: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. Only games played matter. No consideration is given for future games. The Pac-12 Power Rankings will available on Unafraid Show every Monday morning. Make sure you send your comments and grievances to immad@unafraidshow.com.
12. Cal Golden Bears (4-4, 1-4)
Last Week: 0-35 (L) vs Utah
Things have completely fallen apart for the Golden Bears since Chase Garbers broke his collarbone. They are averaging 8 points per game over their last three games. Even the defense’s consecutive streak of holding opponents under 24 points was broken. We are watching the bottom falling out on a team that was 4-0 and had some believing they could win the Pac-12 North.
At this point, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Cal to make a bowl game.
11. Colorado Buffaloes (3-5, 1-4)
Last Week: 31-35 (L) vs USC
Colorado showed a lot more life against USC than they did against Oregon and Washington State. Their offense was efficient and Steven Montez stopped throwing interceptions. These Buffaloes have limited depth and little margin for error offensively because their defense gives up 486 yards and 35 points per game. At least Laviska Shenault had a big game and entertained the Colorado faithful.
Knowing their defense is so bad, I can’t figure out why Mel Tucker decided to punt on 4th and 4 at USC’s 38-yard line with 6 minutes left leading by four points.
10. Arizona Wildcats (4-4, 2-3)
Last Week: 31-41 (L) at Stanford
There is no more frustrating team to watch than Arizona. They have now lost three straight. Kevin Sumlin is trying to use two quarterbacks in every game, but it’s not working. QB math is not the same as real math. 1+1 =0. If you a coach says he has two QBs he really has none. The team gets divided and chooses sides, and there is bitterness and frustration that brews under the surface.
Arizona is second in the Pac-12 in total offense (492 ypg) and second to last in total defense (469 ypg).
9. Stanford Cardinal (4-4, 3-3)
Last Week: 41-31 (L) vs Arizona
What a difference a quarterback makes. The same team that looked completely inept against UCLA with Jack West under center was clicking on all cylinders against Arizona with KJ Costello. It is unbelievable to see how far the Cardinal have fallen offensively. They are 10th in Pac-12 in rushing (120 ypg) and 11th in passing (228 ypg).
Right now, the goal has to be getting to a bowl game. With Stanford’s up-and-down play who knows how their last four games (Colorado, WSU Cal, Notre Dame) will go.
8. UCLA Bruins (3-5, 3-2)
Last Week: 42-32 (W) vs Arizona State
What on earth has happened to UCLA’s defense in the last two weeks? The defense had been awful against everyone, but then had moments of domination against Stanford and Arizona State. Most fans were even calling for DC Jerry Azzinaro’s job. This has been a completely different team since their 32-point comeback at Washington State. Chip Kelly seems to have the Bruins headed in the right direction.
At the end of the ASU game, Dorian Thompson-Robinson injured his knee. Any hope UCLA has of making a bowl game may be out the window if he misses time.
7. Oregon State Beavers (3-4, 2-2)
Last Week: IDLE
By far the most improved team in the conference is Oregon State. They are no longer amongst the worst teams statistically. The Beavers had a week off and will be doing their best to play Pac-12 spoiler. They have already knocked off Cal and UCLA. OSU heads to Arizona this week.
Washington State’s loss to Oregon was a heartbreaker. There is nothing worse than to make a comeback and lose. The good news is the Cougars are back to competing on the field. Mike Leach had much higher expectations for this season than what the results have been. At Pac-12 media day, he not-so-subtly hinted that his team wasn’t getting enough respect. It has been clear that the attention WSU was getting was appropriate.
This is still one of the most dangerous teams to play in the conference.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-3, 2-3)
Last Week: 32-42 (L) at UCLA
Over the last two weeks, ASU has been the worst team in the Pac-12. But they were amongst the best through the first six weeks. Their offensive woes that were present early in the season are back on full display. Herm Edwards’ young team did not mentally bounce bad well from the Utah beatdown. It feels like this team hit a wall. That is pretty normal when you play the most freshman in the conference.
This team is averaging 23 ppg on the season and giving up 21ppg. The Sun Devils margins a super thin.
Probability of Making a Bowl Game According to SP+
The Trojans have their quarterback of the present and future in Kedon Slovis. I would not be surprised if JT Daniels ends up in the transfer portal. after this season. Two of USC’s five wins (Utah, Colorado) belong to the wide receiving corps. In both games, they took over the game and were literally unstoppable. If I have said it once, I have said it 500 times, St. Brown, Vaughns, and Pittman are the best WR unit in college football.
It seems pretty unbelievable that USC controls their own destiny in the Pac-12 South despite Clay Helton being fired rumors hovering all season.
3. Washington Huskies (5-3, 2-3)
Last Week: IDLE
The Washington Huskies going to be mad and extremely focused with Utah coming to town. They feel like they let a game against Oregon slip through their fingertips. They have a chance to ruin the Utes CFB Playoff hopes and keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive. If they beat Utah and finish 9-3 and Oregon goes to the CFB Playoff, the Rose Bowl can choose between Utah and Washington. If that is not enough motivation to show up big, I don’t know what is.
2. Utah Utes (7-1, 4-1)
Last Week: 35-0 (W) vs Cal
The Utes have done mean things to ASU and Cal the last two weeks. They gave up a combined 3 points and 230 yards of total offense. Utah may be a little upset that everyone is talking about Oregon making the CFB Playoff but not mentioning them. Joel Klatt even believes they are the best team in the Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10. That may end up being the ultimate jinx because he has caped for Georgia and Wisconsin the week before they were upset too. Here is the CFB Top 10 As it Should Be.
I really like this Utah team but know their game in Seattle will be extremely difficult. All season I have said that Tyler Huntley will have to be great 2 games when the defense gives up points. This game against Washington will be that game.
Oregon is getting every team’s best shot. The entire conference is trying to derail the Ducks CFB Playoff dreams. Next man up mentality has been paramount for this team in 2019. They have either lost of had key wide receivers, tight ends, linebackers, and defensive linemen miss time. The offensive line will have to continue to dominate if the Ducks want to finish the season unscathed. Justin Herbert’s efficient and near mistake-free football has added to their success.
Now, don’t screw it up. This could end up being a very special season.
Check back every Monday for the next Pac-12 Power Rankings Week 10.
On Saturday the Cal Bears traveled to the great salt lake to take on the #12 ranked University of Utah. Losers of their last three contests, (0-3) in conference play, and nearly out of conference title contention the Bears have had issues. Let us face facts about what is going on in Berkley, Ca. The California Golden Bears have been absolutely decimated by injuries. On Saturday the Bears travel to Salt Lake City to take on the #12 ranked Utah Utes.
To a man, nobody affiliated with the team will use it as an excuse. No one will tell you who are walking wounded, and certainly won’t allow for self-pitying.
But with the losses mounting after a blistering start, the Bears find themselves two games behind the first-place Oregon Ducks. If that wasn’t bad enough, they lost the head-to-head matchup as well.
Without sophomore quarterback, Chase Garbers at the helm, offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin’s offense has become predictable, stagnant, and end zone challenged.
It’s nearly heartbreaking for the defense to continue holding teams to 24 points or less week in and week out, only to lose because the offense couldn’t get anything going at all.
The California Golden Bears have a variety of talent at the wide receiver position that has been starving for opportunities. We have seen Travon Clark, Nikko Remigio, Jordan Duncan, and Kekoa Crawford emerge as playmakers.
Jake Tonges has been making an impact in the passing game lately, while his numbers may not reflect it, his size and natural ability are going to pay off soon. The icing on the cake, Tonges is a more than capable blocker as well.
No matter who is at quarterback, these young men are going to need to get catchable targets. Garbers has a shoulder issue which we should infer is quite possibly a long term injury. Devon Modster still had an undiagnosed injury at the time of coach Wilcox’s postgame presser.
Change in Offensive Strategy
Modster, if cleared to play, looked comfortable with being outside the pocket. With the injuries to the offensive line, standing in the pocket hasn’t exactly been the best spot to survey the field. Bootlegs and naked bootlegs have been types of plays Modster has excelled with.
Possessing a good arm, Moister struggles with accuracy when amped up. Once settled, he can pinpoint the football on deep passes and intermediate crossing routes. He makes good decisions on when to tuck the ball and run. Against the Beavers, he had 19 rushes for 76 yards before bowing out with an injury.
California Bears Rushing Offense
Christopher Brown Jr. had a monster game against UC Davis 38 plays from scrimmage for 206 total yards and 1 TD. For the season CBJ has 121 rushing attempts for 480 yards and 4TDS.
CBJ is a multi-faceted back, with a nice set of hands and a solid route runner. A one-cut runner, CBJ has shown nice vision and his cutback game is very underrated for a 230 pound back. While the majority of Cal’s rushing attack occurs in the shotgun formation perhaps a small formational tweak can help both the offensive line and CBJ get going again.
The pistol formation allows for a happy unification for all. The offensive line gets that extra millisecond to reach and sustain their blocks in a zone and or gap rushing attack. CBJ, doesn’t have to run against a stacked box that already knows where the play is going. Running downhill is usually the best way to deploy a bigger back and opens up the play-action game.
After a 2.5 game offensive lull, it had appeared the Bears offense was ending it’s hibernation and regaining its stride. The California Golden Bears have played ranked teams incredibly tough and the defense will keep them in the game. Whether or not the coaching staff implements a different gameplan or incorporates a few subtle changes remains to be seen. Be that as it may, if the Bears intend to keep their slim conference title hopes alive, they have to win this weekend or they will be playing for a bowl game the remainder of the season.
Huge Performances from Pac-12 NFL Players in Week 7
Marvin Jones has come a long way since Cal
While the Oregon-Washington game was the most exciting game of the weekend, our Pac-12 alumni showed up in Week 7 of the NFL. The best Pac-12 NFL players were clearly Aaron Rodgers and Marvin Jones. They unleashed their abilities in full strength. No one could stop them and we couldn’t get enough. Who else joined them this week?
Best Quarterback Performances
Aaron Rodgers – Cal – Green Bay Packers
Against the Oakland Raiders, Aaron Rodgers went full God-mode. He dismantled them in every way possible for a quarterback. Rodgers finished with this stat line:
25 of 31 (80.65-percent completion percentage)
429 Passing Yards
5 Passing Touchdowns
1 Rushing Touchdown
With a game like that, it’s no wonder that Rodgers notched his first perfect-Passer Rating of the season. It was a vintage performance from the Cal product and it’s why he is one of the best Pac-12 NFL players of all time.
Wow. Talk about composure and stepping up. Somehow, even though Matt Moore hasn’t played since 2017, he sealed the win for the Kansas City Chiefs. With the loss of Patrick Mahomes to a dislocated knee, fans were panicking. But, calm and collected, Moore displayed exactly what teams need from a backup quarterback. He threw for a modest 117 yards, no interceptions and dropped a dime to Tyreek Hill for a touchdown.
Without Moore on the team, they’d be tempted to trade for a potential quarterback bridge until Mahomes gets healthy. But, like New Orleans and Teddy Bridgewater, the Chiefs have it covered.
Best Wide Receiver Performances
Marvin Jones – Cal – Detroit Lions
Even though he was up against the Minnesota Vikings defense, Marvin Jones erupted for four touchdowns. Four! It’s rare for an NFL receiver to get three touchdowns in a game, let alone four.
He was unstoppable. Uncoverable. On 13 targets, he caught 10 for 93 yards and 4 scores. To the delight of fans’ eyes, Jones had himself a game.
Now, this isn’t one of those Pac-12 NFL tight end games for the record books. But, Rhett Ellison had one of his better performances. He caught both targets for 33 yards and a touchdown. In a tight loss to the Arizona Cardinals, those were needed receptions.
Especially considering how inconsistent and poor Daniel Jones was playing. Hopefully, Ellison can find the end zone again this season. But, at least he joined the ranks of other Pac-12 NFL greats this week.
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