NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

My name is Dan Girolamo, and I will not trust Carson Wentz for the rest of the NFL season. I am a fool! They said the Eagles were 1-5 ATS in their last six division games. They said the line jumped three points to 6.5 after the Eagles trounced the Vikings. However, none of it mattered as Wentz stunk up the joint 24-8 loss. After a 1-3 record, let’s get back on track in Week 4.

*Lines as of 9/30 at 11:30 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 4 Bets of the Week

Lions -4 vs. Seahawks

The frisky Lions continue to impress me. They’ve been in every game this year. Detroit was up 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter a week ago against the Viking before blowing it at the end to lose 28-24. Did you know that the Lions are 3-0 ATS in 2022? Now, they return home to pay the inferior Seahawks. Jared Goff with time is a good quarterback. With 7 TDs and 2 INTs, Goff leads a Lions offense that’s third in the NFL in yards per game at 409. Even though the Lions are the fifth-worst in total defense, Seattle’s offense is fifth-worst in yards per game at 296.3. I expect a close game at halftime, but expect Goff and the Lions to win by a touchdown once the Seahwawks’ offense disappears in the second half.

Update: I wrote this the morning of 9/30 before the Lions said they would be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Losing St. Brown is a devastating blow to this offense as Goff’s favorite target leads the team with 253 receiving yards and 3 TDs. However, no Swift means the Lions can turn Jamaal Williams into a bell-cow running back. Williams is third in the NFL in red zone opportunities so expect that number to increase on Sunday. I still love the Lions, and you should, too. Thank you to my good pal, and gambling savant, Bus, who reminded me to update this post.

Jared Goff throws a pass for the Detroit Lions.

Steelers -3 vs. Jets

If you want to see a Big 10 football game in the NFL, then tune into Steelers-Jets on Sunday. Boy, will this game be ugly. The big news comes from New York as Zach Wilson will suit up for the first time this season. He inherits a Jets offense that’s averaged 370 yards per game (ninth in the NFL). On the flip side, Mitchell Trubisky runs a lifeless Steelers offense that’s bottom five in both yards per game and passing yards per game. However, this is more about Wilson playing his first game of the season against a Steelers defense that will pin their ears back and make Wilson’s life a living hell. The Steelers’ turnover differential is +3 while the Jets sit at -4. Winning the turnover battle matters, and the Steelers will force them on their way to a 6-point victory.

NFL Week 4 Underdog of the Week

Falcons +1 vs. Browns

Just like the Lions, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS in 2022. Although the offensive numbers are middle of the pack, the Falcons are top 10 in scoring offense, and all three games have hit the over. Am I afraid that the NFL’s top rusher in terms of yards, Nick Chubb, and the top rushing offense in the NFL get to face the 22nd-ranked Falcons defense? I’m not afraid, but I am concerned. This basically comes down to Jacoby Brissett vs. the Falcons. I still don’t trust Brissett, and he’s facing an Atlanta defense that’s seventh in forcing turnovers. It’s a coin flip so I’ll take the home dogs.

NFL Week 4 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 6 points, Chiefs +1>+7 / Ravens +3>+9

Last week, my teaser consisted of a good team (Bucs) and a bad team (Commanders). Why did I torture myself? How about I put two good teams in the teaser of the week? Both the Chiefs and the Ravens are two Super Bowl caliber teams who find themselves as underdogs. When will that happen again? The Chiefs special teams were atrocious a week ago in the loss to the Colts. The lack of a deep threat concerns me for the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS as a road underdog and 10-3 SU following a loss. Plus, Brady is still trying to figure out the receiving situation so give me the Chiefs at +7 to cover. In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite as of today. Jackson’s 10 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs anchor the highest-scoring offense in the NFL through three games. The Bills are good, but they won’t blow out the Ravens in Baltimore.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Underdog of the Week: 2-1

Teaser of the Week: 1-2

Top 5 College Football Playoff Storylines Heading Into Week 4

Notre Dame Football

I hate layovers. When I travel and fly from point A to point B, I want to do it as quickly and efficiently as possible. When I can’t fly direct and experience layovers, I’m agitated and cranky because of the wait, which is good for no one. Week 3 was a layover. My mind was focused on Week 4 while watching the slate of Week 3 games. Now, this weekend is full of gigantic matchups with College Football Playoff implications in full effect. Going into Week 4, my College Football Playoff includes:

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. LSU
  4. Oklahoma

No new additions from the previous week, but that could change after three huge matchups between ranked opponents: No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia, No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M, and No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin. Here are the Top 5 CFP storylines heading into Week 4.

Shea Patterson Needs To Kick It Up A Notch

Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson | Mike Mulholland, MLive.com

Shea Patterson’s start to the season has been less than ideal. In two games, Patterson has thrown for a pedestrian 410 yards and 3 TDs with an ESPN QBR of 48.7. The bigger story revolves around ball security as Patterson has fumbled the ball 4 times in two games. Plus, Patterson was battling through an oblique injury, but he says that it’s fully healed going into this weekend. That can’t happen on Saturday if Michigan expects to win on the road at Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s offense and defense are lethal as the Badgers have outscored its opponents, 110-0. Expect both defenses to keep their teams in the game and don’t be surprised if it comes down to a big play by one of the quarterbacks late that decides the game.

Can Texas A&M contain Bo Nix?

In years past, the Aggie offense provided the spark for Texas A&M. This year, the tables have turned as the A&M defense is the catalyst. Through three games, Texas A&M is ranked 18th in total defense while only surrendering 268 yards per game. For Auburn, to win on the road in hostile College Station, they will need their freshman signal-caller, Bo Nix, to remain calm and control the game. Nix has shown he can handle the pressure when he led Auburn on a game-winning drive to defeat Oregon in the first game of the year. Auburn will need some of that “Bo Magic” to win on the road.

The BYU Upset Train Looks To Make It Three Straight

It’s hard to find a team with more luck and good fortune on their side the past two weeks than BYU. Two weeks ago, they were dead-in-the-water before a last-second Hail Mary and field goal aided BYU in their upset win over Tennesse. Last week, it was the BYU defense and their last-second interception in overtime to edge out USC. This week, the Cougars will look to make it three upsets in a row as they welcome the visiting No. 22 Washington Huskies to town. Can the BYU magic continue for at least one more week?

Oregon Needs To Win Out To Have Any Chance At The College Football Playoff

Oregon is not in a “win (out) and in” situation for the CFP. It’s more like a “win (out and pray for other teams to lose at the top) and in.” For the Ducks to even sniff the playoff, they will need to win every single game from here on out including the Pac 12 championship. That’s not even taking into account that other teams in the top 6 must lose multiple games. Regardless, Justin Herbert and the Ducks need to take it one step at a time and take care of business against a Stanford team that was just throttled by UCF a week ago.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia = Put Up Or Shut Up

In 2017, this game was an instant classic as the unknown Jake Fromm led the Bulldogs to a 20-19 win in Georgia’s first-ever trip to South Bend. Now, Notre Dame looks to avenge it’s 2017 loss as the Irish make their first trip to Athens on Saturday night. Despite both teams being ranked inside the Top 10, Georgia is more than a two-touchdown favorite, which may come as a surprise considering Notre Dame scored 66 points a week ago. I have a feeling this double-digit line is due to the fact that Notre Dame was throttled by Clemson in last year’s playoff so it supports the notion idea that Notre Dame can’t keep up with athletic teams like Georiga. Whatever the case may be, this is the must-see game of the weekend.

What are your top College Football Playoff storylines for Week 4? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.