NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets

Before we talk about the NFL Conference Championships, let’s pour one out to the season. There are only two days of NFL football left before it goes on a hiatus. Enjoy it, and more importantly, bet it (responsibly).

*Lines as of 1/27 at 2:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

49ers +2.5 vs. Eagles

If you had doubts about the health of Jalen Hurts, those quickly disappeared last week against the Giants. Hurts was a man possessed in the first half, leading the Eagles offense to touchdowns on four of their first five possessions. The Eagles offensive line is the best unit in football, especially with Lane Johnson back in the lineup. Johnson and Jason Kelce have not given up a sack since Week 6 of the 2021 season. It’s 2023! Philly’s defensive line is also a top 3 unit in football after registering 70 (!) sacks in the regular season. Plus, Get Up had a stat this morning – Philly’s 3rd-down sack percentage is 18.2%. The league average is 9.6 %.

All signs point to Philly, but I’m siding with San Francisco’s all-star roster with a rookie QB. Last week was Brock Purdy’s worst start of his career with 214 yards passing and a QBR of 87.4. Yet, he didn’t turn the ball over and made the necessary plays to win against a stout Cowboys defense. The 49ers defense is ranked first overall in DVOA. I also prefer the 49ers playmakers (non QB) – CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk – over the Eagles skill guys – AJB, Sanders, DeVonta, Goedert. When push comes to shove, I trust Kyle Shanahan, even with his clock management deficienes, more than Nick Sirianni. Shanny is 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. Hopefully, it’s 8-1 after Sunday.

Bengals +1.5 vs. Chiefs

Is Joe Burrow “him?” He might be! Since his historic season in 2019, Burrow has shown up in big game after big game. In six playoff games, Burrow has thrown for over 1500 yards with eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.4. Cincy’s confidence is skyhigh, considering they’ve beaten the Chiefs in three-straight games, including last year’s AFC Championship. In those three wins, the Bengals have outscored the Chiefs 47-20 in the second half. Lou Anarumo’s ability to adjust the Cincy defense in the second half has been the difference.

All that being said, this game comes down to Patrick Mahomes and his ankle. Mahomes has been tremendous in 12 playoff games – 3500 yards, 30 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.2. However, the high ankle sprain scares me. Mahomes will be shot up with god knows what in his ankle to play on Sunday. I’m sure he’ll be effective at times, but the typical recovery for this injury is 4-6 weeks. He’s playing on this ankle 8 days after the injury. I don’t trust his ankle to hold up. Therefore, Cincy gets to their second-straight Super Bowl.

NFL Conference Championship Teaser

6 POINTS: 49ers +2.5>+8.5, Bengals +1.5>+7.5

The teasers have not been kind to me this postseason. I can’t say that I’m thrilled to be trusting two underdogs to cover the tease. However, I’m expecting two close games, which is perfect for a teaser.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

2023 Wild Card Round

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

2023 Divisional Round

Bets of the Week: 2-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Trevor Lawrence throwing a pass.

The best football weekend of the year is upon us as the NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday night. It was a winning Wild Card Weekend for me, so let’s keep the train rolling.

*Lines as of 1/20 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Chiefs -8.5 vs. Jaguars

Everyone and their mother will be throwing the Chiefs in a teaser this weekend. Why? For starters, Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round (4-0). In Mahomes’s four Divisional games, the Chiefs have scored 36.5 points per game with an average margin of victory of 12.25 points. Not too shabby! Andy Reid is also dominant off a bye week as his teams are 27-4 (including the regular season). I love where the Jaguars are heading. Last week’s comeback victory over the Chargers set this franchise in the right direction. The Jags are on a six-game winning streak with a 5-1 ATS record in that timeframe. Jacksonville needs to get off to a fast start for them to have any chance at winning. However, #15 in red loves fast starts as the catalyst to the third-highest scoring first-half offense in the league on a per-game average (15.6). It’s a close game at the half, but the Chiefs pull away to cover.

Giants vs. Eagles over 48.5

As I mentioned last week, I am a diehard Giants fan, so I’m rooting for the Giants. I also don’t put any money down on the Giants because of my poor record betting on the teams I love. If I were to bet on this game, the over is the play. The Eagles are the highest-scoring first half team in the league (17.4 points). During the season, the over was 10-7 in Eagles games. Do you know which team has been one of the hottest over teams in the second half? The New York Football Giants, with the over hitting in seven of their last nine games. Go Giants, but the safer play is to root for points.

Bengals +5.5 vs Bills

The hardest game to handicap is the contest between the Bengals and the Bills. It’s an overused phrase, but I truly believe whoever has the ball last will win the game. Both teams were not particularly impressive in their wins during Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals needed a miraculous defensive touchdown to beat Tyler Huntley, and the Bills needed to come from behind to defeat third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Bengals missing three starting offensive linemen shouldn’t be swept to the side. Josh Allen committing the most turnover at the QB position is something that also shouldn’t be taken lightly. Both teams should be able to score, so the over is a solid play. Because I think this will be a close game, the Bills will win by a field goal so take the Bengals and the points.

49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

The two most impressive teams in the Wild Card Round will now face off in the last game of Divisional Weekend. You know where I stand on the Niners. If I wasn’t a Giants fan, I would be a Niners fan. This roster is stacked beyond belief. During this 11-game winning streak, the Niners offense is second in EPA per play. As long as Brock Purdy doesn’t turn the ball over, the Niners can win the Super Bowl. However, the Cowboys are pretty damn good as well. Dak Prescott played the game of his life against Tampa, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. The Niners offense will also play the best defense they’ve seen in months, but that works both ways as the Niners are the best defense in football, surrounding the fewest yards per game (300.6). I liked the Niners to win the game before they knew their opponent. After seeing Brett Maher miss four extra points, I feel better that the Niners will cover the three and change.

NFL Divisional Round Teaser

6 POINTS: Chiefs -8.5>-2.5, Bengals/Bills Over 49.5>Over 43.5

As I stated at the beginning of the article, the entire world will tease the Chiefs to under three points. The question lies with who (or what) to tease them with. Honestly, it’s not a week for teasers. However, getting the total to 43.5 in the Bengals-Bills seems to be the best option. The Bengals haven’t scored under 20 points since October 9, and the Bills haven’t scored under 20 points since November 6. Both teams average over 25 points per game. That’s good enough for the over.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

2023 Wild Card Round

Bets of the Week: 4-2

Teaser of the Week: 0-1

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

And with that, the 2022 NFL regular season comes to an end. For my gambling stats, I started hot, nose-dived in the middle, and regained my composure at the end. The final record was 34-29-1, which comes out to approximately 53%. I’ll take it after the 1-4 weeks I was putting up in the middle of the season. Now, it’s a new season as we head into NFL Wild Card Weekend. With only six games, I will share my predictions for every game. Spoiler alert: I LOVE my teaser the most.

*Lines as of 1/14 at 12 p.m. ET on FanDuel

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

49ers -9.5 vs. Seahawks

In the preseason, my Super Bowl prediction was the Bills over the Niners. People jumped off the bandwagon when James G was ruled out for the season, but I trusted Kyle Shanahan to right the ship and bring this team to the playoffs. 10 straight wins later, the Niners are primed for a big postseason run. During this winning streak, the offense has averaged over 30 points per game while their defense surrenders the least amount of yards per game. Rain is expected in Santa Clara so it will be a wet one, which helps Seattle. Is it hard to beat a team three times in a season? Yes. However, the Niners are much better than a Seattle team who probably shouldn’t be in the playoffs. Niners will run away with this game in the second half.

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Chargers

Are you ready to Jag off? Because I am! The Jaguars ripped off five straight wins to make the playoffs, capped off by an ugly 20-16 win over the Titans to win the AFC South. As a Trevor Lawrence believer, the young QB played poorly last week. I don’t expect that to happen two weeks in a row. The Chargers want teams to run on them (145.8 yards per game), so if you want a prop bet, Travis Etienne over 78.5 yards rushing looks good. The main reason I like the Jags is the coaching advantage they possess. I trust Doug Pederson more than Brandon Staley. Mike Williams should not have been playing last week. One back injury later and the Chargers best WR is out for the playoffs. That’s indefensible, and the Chargers’ offense will suffer. Jags pull out a close win on Wild Card Weekend.

Bills -13.5 vs. Dolphins

I don’t want to waste too much time on this game. If Tua was playing, this would’ve been a good game. If Teddy Bridgewater was playing, it would be less fun but still manageable. I have zero faith in Skylar Thompson. The Bills should blow the Fins out of the water.

Giants +3 vs. Vikings

*BIAS ALERT* I am a diehard Giants fan, so I will keep this short and sweet. I actually don’t put money on the Giants because I’m afraid I will jinx them. Yes, I’m an 8-year-old with that mindset. However, I’m also 0 for 253 when betting on the Giants, so I stopped doing it a few years ago. That being said, this matchup will be a one-score game either way. By all stats, the Vikings might be the luckiest team ever. They’re still good, but 13 wins and a -3 point differential is as lucky as it gets. I’m scared that everyone loves the Giants, too, but the Giants will show up and deliver. (Please)

Ravens +8.5 vs. Bengals

The Bengals are going to win this game. I wanted to get that out of the way first. However, I like the Ravens to cover because of one man and one man only, Roquan Smith. The entire defense changed when Smith became a Raven. The First-Team All-Pro linebacker has anchored a Ravens defense that has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest points, 14.7 points per game, since his arrival. In that same span, the Ravens are third in defense DVOA, 10th against the pass, and 2nd against the run. Smith earned that contract extension. Even with Lamar Jackson out, Tyler Huntley should do enough to make this a 13-9 game going into the fourth quarter. Once again, Burrow finds a way to win, but the Ravens keep it close (and ugly).

Bucs +2.5 vs. Cowboys

The Cowboys stunk up the joint a week ago, losing to the Commanders 26-6. Dak Prescott played arguably the worst game of his career, completing 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and one pick-six. Do you trust the Cowboys, a team with three playoff wins since 1997, to bounce back against Tom Brady in the biggest game of the season? I don’t! It’s Tom Brady. The Bucs offense unlocked something two weeks ago in the fourth quarter of the Panthers game. They let Tommy sling it and opened up the field, which resulted in 20 points. The Cowboys will probably go into the half with the lead, and they might have it heading into the fourth quarter, but when it comes time for Brady to make a comeback, he’ll deliver in crunch time. Not for nothing, these two teams played in Week 1, and the Bucs won 19-3. I’m just saying…

NFL Wild Card Weekend Teaser

6 POINTS: Niners -9.5>-3.5, Jaguars +2.5>+8.5, Bills -13.5>-7.5

Why will this lose? I keep asking myself that question, and I don’t have an answer. The Jaguars would be the team to ruin the teaser, but I don’t see the Chargers winning on the road by more than a touchdown. If you swap out the Jags for the Bengals, I wouldn’t blame you at all. In fact, I’m going to make another teaser with Niners-Bills-Bengals.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 17-14-1

Underdog of the Week: 8-8

Teaser of the Week: 9-7

Total: 34-29-1

1/20/22 Wrighster or Wrong: NFL QB Confidence Rankings, Kirby Smart takes on the NCAA, Journalist vs Truck, Real-Life Cool Runnings

Wrighster1-2-22

On this episode of WRIGHSTER OR WRONG, George Wrighster and Ralph Amsden rank the remaining quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs according to their level of confidence in them. Georgia Head Coach Kirby Smart told some hard truths about the state of college football, and both George and Ralph discuss the reasons the sport could be headed for disaster if the NCAA doesn’t take proactive action. What do you do when an internet personality that you typically don’t like shares an opinion that you wholeheartedly agree with? A West Virginia reporter is hit by a car while on live TV, and it has the whole internet talking about the way the situation was handled. A journalist asked Wharton business school students what they believed the average salary of working Americans was, and their answers made them seem very out of touch. Jamaica has a bobsled team, so as a Cool Runnings super fan, is George now rooting against America? Finally, Instagram is adding subscription-based content, so who, if anyone, would you pay to subscribe to?

Click any of the following links to listen to Wrighster or Wrong on your preferred Podcast platform

iHeart // Apple Podcasts // Spotify // Stitcher // Radio Public // Google Podcasts

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fNHD4bGX95FSsm1Py5dYI?si=xSo0-agnSvizX3ddNqI9AA

Have a take you’d like us to address? Email us at immad@unafraidshow.com and we’ll read your take on a future Wrighster or Wrong podcast.

9/24/21 Wrighster or Wrong: NFL Playoff Changes, NIL Concerns, NBA Vaccine Rebellion, Fixing USC, Arizona Audit

Wrighster or Wrong 9-24

On this episode of WRIGHSTER OR WRONG, George Wrighster and Ralph Amsden discuss the expanded NFL Playoff format- has the league become too greedy? Also, George worries that some of the money available to college players through Name, Image and Likeness might be affecting their approach on the field. Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins are rumored to be willing to pay a hefty penalty for not getting the Covid-19 vaccine, and Ralph actually applauds them for putting their money where their mouth is. Bruce Feldman wrote an article in The Athletic that made USC’s problems seem even bigger than previously thought, so what can the Trojans do to fix all that is broken? In politics, the guys discuss the results of the 2020 Arizona election recount, and get into the murder rate statistics that are being used as a disingenuous way to paint protestors against police misconduct as the reason more lives are being lost. Finally, the Best of Social Media, including a highlight and a lowlight from Appalachian State football’s 31-30 win over Marshall.

Click any of the following links to listen to Wrighster or Wrong on your preferred Podcast platform

iHeart // Apple Podcasts // Spotify // Stitcher // Radio Public // Google Podcasts

Have a take you’d like us to address? Email us at immad@unafraidshow.com and we’ll read your take on a future Wrighster or Wrong podcast.

Andy Reid needs a Super Bowl Victory to Cement His HOF Legacy

Is this the season Andy Reid changes his legacy?

At 61 years old, with 21 years of head coaching experience, his teams experienced incredible regular season success. Of 21 season with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, he only missed the playoffs six times. Most recently, with Kansas City, their regular-season records include:

  • 11-5
  • 9-7
  • 11-6
  • 12-4
  • 10-6
  • 12-4
  • 12-4

His teams won 10 division titles and they had an overall 61.8-percent winning percentage. But, even with all of the wins, his teams have still fallen short of the big game. Andy Reid is largely looked at one of the greatest coaches to never win a Super Bowl. He’s been called out for poor clock-management, letting his foot off the gas and losing in critical games. His 12-14 playoff record hangs over any of his feats. And he’s ridiculed for it every, single season.

But, with a Super Bowl victory, he can change all of that and vault himself into a new category of NFL coaches.

Andy Reid’s coaching tree is already better than Bill Belichick’s

Everyone knows Bill Belichick’s success with the New England Patriots is otherworldly. However, his coaching tree produced very few winners. In a recent article by Matt Lombardo of NJ Advance Media, he compared in detail the differences between Andy Reid and Belichick’s legacy of head coaches. In comparison, Reid’s successors are far better in comparison:

Belichick’s Coaching Tree

  • Combined Record: 281-330-1
  • Playoff Appearances: 8
  • Super Bowl Titles: 0

Reid’s Coaching Tree

  • Combined Record: 350-307-1
  • Playoff Appearances: 19
  • Super Bowl Titles: 2

Even without a Super Bowl title himself, Andy Reid’s success lives through his coaching tree. Although, if Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs win this year’s Super Bowl, his legacy will boom.

Andy Reid, Offensive Genius

With respect to Philadelphia and Kansas City’s scouting, drafting and signing, Andy Reid’s coached so many offensive powerhouses. It takes only a second to think of incredible playmakers from the Eagles and Chiefs. Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Terrell Owens, and DeSean Jackson highlight his years in Philadelphia. While Patrick Mahomes, Jamaal Charles, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are huge in Kansas City.

But, even without the superstars, he’s gotten the most out of every running back and receiver on his teams. He even made Alex Smith look like an NFL MVP. Regardless of the players available, Reid’s teams put up points. 13 of his 21 teams ranked in the top-10 of offensive points per game in their respective seasons. Additionally, nine of them ranked in the top-six in scoring offense.

Now, with Patrick Mahomes at the helm with Travis Kelce, Tryreek Hill, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins to utilize, Reid’s offense is at full force. This offensive power was on display in their 51-31 win against the Houston Texans. With a Super Bowl victory, Andy Reid’s genius will be immortalized.

Reid is too good to not have a ring

In his two decades of experience, Andy Reid amassed 207 wins, 10 division titles, and one Super Bowl appearance. In terms of head coaching success, Reid ranks seventh all-time in regular-season wins. Don Shula, George Hala, Bill Belichick, Tom Landry, Curly Lambeau, Paul Brown and Marty Schottenheimer each join him in the 200-plus win club.

Despite his exceptional company, he is the only one of them without an NFL title. This Super Bowl victory would vault him into the discussion of a future Hall of Fame coach.

Andy Reid has the wins. He’s known as an offensive genius. Any layman can name countless elite players from his teams. All he needs is two more wins to get the respect he deserves.

Former Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes Looks Like the MVP with Chiefs

QB Patrick Mahomes Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes looks like an NFL MVP in his first season as a starter with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Since his time as a quarterback with the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Patrick Mahomes has been demonstrating that he has a cannon for an arm that’s worthy of top recognition. Unfortunately, the Tech defense couldn’t find a rhythm in his time there. And while the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense has its own issues, Mahomes has consistently proven why the “system” conversation experts insist on having every season needs to be replaced with praise for inventiveness, grit, and resourcefulness.

With Mahomes being Texas Tech’s top overall pick in program history, and Baker Mayfield taking the first-round spot last year, it’s started another debate on how “system quarterbacks” are fitting in the League. While teams throughout the league from the Rams to the Chiefs are embracing a more avant-garde approach to schematics, perhaps Mahomes’ performance throughout the 2018 season should provide a glimpse into what offensive coordinators should be looking for while updating their playbooks and personnel.

For Patrick Mahomes, however, record after record broken this season, he not only padded his statistics en route to the League MVP title, he also made his supporting cast like tight end Travis Kelce (1,336) appear goliath on the field. With production increases all around, it’s impossible to overlook Mahomes as the leading candidate for the prestigious award.

Mahomes has accounted for 5, 097 passing yards and leads the league with 50 touchdowns. His 8.8 yards-per-pass almost guaranteed a first down on every snap, and while he trails Ben Roethlisberger for No. 1. in the AFC in passing, Mahomes’ YPP averages 1.4 yards more than Roethlisberger’s.

Many of the experts believe the MVP race is between Mahomes and New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees. Brees ranks 13th in the NFL in total passing, at 3,992 yards, 32 touchdowns, and a game average of 266.1 yards. If we’re comparing stats solely, league-wide, Mahomes is still the second-best passer in the league.

Mahomes has made throws into windows so tight the reception probability was exceptionally narrow, but if you watched him at Texas Tech, those throws were the standard, making Mahomes one of the most prolific quarterbacks in program history. Now, those improbable throws are turning Mahomes into a one-man highlight reel, and making pundits question every negative thing they’ve said about “system quarterbacks.” Instead, it’s made people begin to understand that every offense that a quarterback develops in is its own “system,” and that it’s become a buzzword to diminish innovation.

Patrick Mahomes throws off balance, he stares down the soul of defenders while connecting with his receivers. He throws oddly angled sidearm passes and evades tackles as only a Big 12 quarterback could. What’s more, Mahomes is only 23 and only has a full season under his belt. He has only shown us the beginning of what he’s capable of, and as the Kansas City Chiefs continue to build the team around him and his progression, the NFL could be witnessing the next Tom Brady-type legend emerge.

Mahomes certainly has had a season for the record books, but his play has elevated him into the levels of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. He was named on Friday to the 2018 NFL All-Pro team, along with Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and even broke fantasy football history by posting the greatest fantasy season by a quarterback, with 417 total points.

If the NFL MVP award is truly given to the player who was most valuable to the League, then Patrick Mahomes is it, and it’s not even close. He’s not a prototypical player, and when he took over when Alex Smith was traded last season, it was viewed as the biggest gamble in Andy Reid’s head coaching career. That gamble has paid off, and now Mahomes is consistently outplaying league veterans and rewriting the rules.

T. J. Houshmandzadeh made a case for Mahomes against Drew Brees saying that the NFL MVP shouldn’t be a “lifetime achievement award because it’s a disservice to Patrick Mahomes,” and even dovetails to the contributions Brees has had at defense compared to Mahomes, who has to turn the burners on to compensate where the Chiefs’ defense has lacked this season.

The NFL MVP Award will be selected on February 2, and it’s clear that it’s already becoming one of the most polarizing pre-Super Bowl debates, which could dominate post-season discussions. When Mahomes hit 5,000 yards, he joined an elite group of professional quarterbacks and became the first player ever to throw for 5,000 yards in a season in college and in NFL. To say his talent and electric performances aren’t deserving of the League’s most prestigious award is disrespectful to the sport.

Regardless of the outcome, it’s clear with players like Baker Mayfield and Mahomes and coaches like Reid and Sean McVay, the “system” is here to stay.