What is “The Big Three?” It’s not LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The trio I’m referring to is the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Oscars. These are the three biggest mainstream awards for films. If a film or actor does well at the Globes and SAGs, then it’s probably going to win an Oscar.
On Sunday, the SAG Awards will hand out some hardware. After Sunday night, will the Oscar races heat up or cool down?
Will The SAG Awards Alter The Oscar Race?
Do the SAG Awards affect the Oscar race?
The short answer is yes. The SAG Awards matter. Just look at last year’s results.
Every winner in the five major categories went on to win the Oscar in their corresponding category. I doubt that this trend will happen two years in a row. Why is that? Look at the Outstanding Performance by a Cast category for 2020 below. What notable film is missing?
The answer is Nomadland, which is the heavy favorite at -400 to win Best Picture according to Vegasinsider. Since 2010, five winners of Outstanding Cast went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. During that same time frame, 2017 (The Shape of Water) and 2018 (Green Book) where the Best Picture winner didn’t receive an Outstanding Cast nomination.
Despite the lack of a SAG nom, Nomadland won the top prize at the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild Awards. The latter is noteworthy because the PGA winner won the Oscar for Best Picture 10 of the last 13 years. I’m expecting Nomadland to make it 11 out of 14. If I had to pick one film to play spoiler, it would be Minari. If Minari wins the SAG for Outstanding Cast, it could ride that momentum to the Oscars just like Parasite did last year.
In the acting categories, the male races seem all but over. The SAG Awards are voted on by actors and the acting community’s reaction to Chadwick Boseman’s campaign has been universally positive. He may receive every single first-place vote for Outstanding Lead Actor. The same could be said for Daniel Kaluuya, whose captivating performance in Judas and the Black Messiah should result in SAG and Oscar gold.
On the female side, it’s a bit cloudier. Frances McDormand, who has won two SAG Awards for Leading Actress in a Film and two Oscars for Best Actress, is the favorite, and rightfully so. She’s awesome in everything she does including Nomadland. However, watch out for Carey Mulligan. Her performance in Promising Young Woman garnered excellent reviews, which led to important wins at Critics Choice Awards and National Board of Review. Whoever wins the SAG will be the favorite to win the Oscar.
In the supporting actress category, your guess is good as mine. You might be better off closing your eyes and pointing at a name. Maria Bakalova, my personal pick to win, and Youn Yuh-jung are the two names to watch. The two women have gone back and forth all season, alternating wins in every critic’s circle beside the Golden Globes. Bakalova recently won the Critics Choice Award so I give her the slight edge going into the SAG.
Welcome to awards season. In a normal year, many nominees and studios would be making their final push towards the 2021 Oscars. However, in this unprecedented year, the bulk of awards season is just about to begin.
In the past two days, the Golden Globes and SAG Awards released their nominations for their respective ceremonies. As are the rules of the Internet, you have to be happy at the surprises and mad at the snubs. Surprises and snubs always happen.
Once the shock value passes, turn your attention towards the 2021 Oscars. The Golden Globes and SAG Awards are good barometers for Oscar nominations depending on the category. Can anyone stop The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Nomadland in Best Picture? Will Chadwick Boseman become a double nominee? Can Maria Bakalova do the impossible and win an OscaR?
Below are five major categories and their impact on the Oscars.
*Sorry television, but this article is about films only. TV had a monumental year in 2020, but I’m shifting my focus towards movies for now. However, Anya Taylor-Joy better win every award for The Queen’s Gambit.
Best Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Netflix
Golden Globes – Drama: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7. Comedy/Musical: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
SAG Awards – Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night In Miami, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
This is a tale of two voting groups. The Globes leaned into acclaimed filmmakers like David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin while the SAGs championed diverse casts. For the Oscars, cut out every comedy/musical from the Globes because none of those movies will receive a Best Picture nomination. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland are the favorites as of now, but watch out for Mank and Minari who are right on their heels.
Oscars Best Picture Nomination Predictions
Locks – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, Nomadland
Looking Good – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, The Father
Still Alive – One Night In Miami, Sound of Metal, News of the World
Darkhorse – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Golden Globes – Drama: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian. Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, James Corden – The Prom, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield, Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
SAG Awards – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari
The biggest story is not who was nominated, but who was left out. Delroy Lindo, who I thought was a lock for a Best Actor nomination, was snubbed from both the Globes and the SAGs. His Oscar chances have severely deteriorated, and that’s a damn shame. There is some recent precedent as Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira both received Oscar nominations Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively without Golden Globe and SAG nominations. For the Oscars, it’s the fight for the fifth spot as Ahmed, Boseman, Oldman, and Hopkins most likely cemented their spots.
Oscars Best Actor Nomination Predictions
Locks – Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank
Golden Globes – Drama: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman Comedy/Musical: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Kate Hudson – Music, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot, Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma
SAG Awards – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Like Best Actor, Best Actress appears to have four locks in Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan. It’s that fifth spot where the confusion lies. Adams came out of nowhere to snag the SAG nomination. Don’t count Adams out for the Oscar nomination since she’s previously been nominated six times. Day and Pfeiffer are right in the mix as well and their campaigns will only gain steam once more people see their respective movies. Bakalova, one of my breakout stars of the year, will be in the supporting category at the Oscars.
Oscars Best Actress Nomination Predictions
Locks – Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Still Alive – Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Darkhorse – Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
Best Supporting Actor
One Night in Miami / Amazon Studios
Golden Globes – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami
SAG Awards – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
If you have a Jared Leto joke, save it for Twitter. In defense of Leto, he’s the best aspect of The Little Things. I appreciate the creepy, edgy serial killer he was trying to portray. The Little Things could have benefitted with more Leto. With that being said, I’m truly shocked he received supporting nominations at both the Globes and SAGs because the movie was not highly received by critics. I hate to sound like a broken record, but this seems to be another battle for one spot between Murray and Boseman. My money is on Boseman.
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions
Locks – Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jared Leto – The Little Things, Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami
Still Alive – Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Darkhorse – Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm / Amazon Studios
Golden Globes – Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
SAG Awards – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari, Helena Zengel – News of the World
Three days ago, if you asked me to pick a favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, I would have selected Seyfried for Mank. Three months ago, I would have picked Close for Hillbilly Elegy. Now, I’m not confident with either of those predictions. Close is a lock while Seyfried should get the nomination. Call me crazy, but the favorites to win have to be Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung. Both actresses continue to rack up supporting wins from various critics’ circles. The winner of the SAG award will be in the driver’s seat.
Oscars Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions
Locks – Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Still Alive – Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Helena Zengel – News of the World
Darkhorse – Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
What are your takeaways from the Golden Globe and SAG nominations? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.
