George Wrighster Picks NFL’s AFC Conference Division Winners

Patrick Mahomes

The AFC is home to the best quarterback play, and the strongest conference in the NFL. There are my picks to win each division in 2022 (Playoff teams in bold)

AFC WEST

Prediction:

  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Denver Broncos
  • Las Vegas Raiders

The winner of the Super Bowl is more than likely going to come out of this division, and I’m just going to come out and with my boldest prediction right out of the gate.

When the dust settles on the 2022 regular season, the Los Angeles Chargers are going to be in first place. 

Justin Herbert is ready to make a leap to NFL MVP, and the Chargers have the most dangerous wide receiver room in the NFL. Brandon Staley won 9 games last year despite having the fourth-worst scoring defense, and you know that’s been eating at him after using his credentials as the top defensive coordinator in 2020 with the LA Rams to land this gig. There’s a lot of pressure on Khalil Mack to help get this defensive line over the hump, because Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery weren’t doing enough to get it done without him. 

Patrick Mahomes is still that dude, and they might win the Super Bowl without winning the division, but Tyreek Hill was a vital part of their offensive success. Do you really think 8.6 yards per reception JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to replace that production? We’ll just have to see.

I think the Broncos get in with the addition of Mr. Unlimited, Russell Wilson. That leaves the Raiders on the outside looking in- and don’t try and tell me the Silver and Black are going to build on last year’s surprising rally behind interim Head Coach Rich Bisaccia. He’s up in the freezing cold frozen tundra now, and the Raiders chances of making the 2022 playoffs went with him.

I’m not saying the Raiders can’t make some noise this year, but they have the bad fortune of taking a minimum of four losses in conference play. 

So to recap, your MVP and Super Bowl champion are likely both coming out of the AFC West.

AFC South

Prediction:

  • Tennessee Titans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Houston Texans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars

I believe Ryan Tannehill is closer to the 2021 version than the 33 Touchdown, 7 interception 2020 version that had Dolphins fans ready to walk into the ocean.

But I also believe it doesn’t matter. The strength of the Titans is their running game behind Derrick Henry and a finally-healthy offensive line. If they do what they are supposed to in the running game, and the defense continues the massive leap forward it made in 2021, they’re going to win the division.

The Colts are continuing their end of career Las Vegas residency QB carousel, this time with Matt Ryan. And if you consider that Matt Ryan has had one good season every three years for the past 14 seasons, he’s probably due for a decent year. But just like the Titans, this is a team built on running and defense, and the superstar pair of Johnathan Taylor and Darius Leonard are probably enough to put Indy on the playoff bubble.

The Houston Texans and my old team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are both much improved, and I expect them to be in a lot of games until the bitter end, but those endings will be bitter. I expect 5-6 win seasons for both squads. 

For any of these teams to make the leap to Super Bowl contender, they’re going to need to have a sure-fire franchise QB, but I can’t say with a straight face that any of them have one at the moment.

AFC North

Prediction:

  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Cleveland Browns

If you don’t think Lamar Jackson is worth $250 million guaranteed, you will by the end of the season. This division is about to be all Baltimore, all the time. 

John Harbaugh is coming off only his second losing season as the Ravens head coach in the last 14 years, and the worst team defense we’ve seen from Baltimore since 2002. Not only are we going to see progression to the mean, if this team stays healthy, we might see dominance. In my opinion, the Super Bowl champ is coming out of the AFC West, but if it’s anyone else, this is the team to watch. 

I’m not a Cincinnati Bengals hater, but let’s be honest. They got hot at the right time last year, but in the Super Bowl, the better team won. I do have them making the playoffs in 2022, and while that should be enough for Bengals fans that went 31 years between playoff victories, a taste of success can make you greedy. Be patient with Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor, and you’ll get back eventually.

I have the Pittsburgh Steelers finishing third in the division and contending for a playoff spot. Yes, even with Mitch Trubisky taking snaps. I could come out of retirement to play QB for the Steelers and Mike Tomlin is still going to find a way for my old ass to drag them to 9 wins. The problem with this is that it keeps you out of range to take a shot on a top QB in the draft, so this might be something they have to reconcile in free agency this offseason. I hear their rival has a QB with a suspect contract situation…

Last, and definitely least, the Cleveland Browns decided to waste a perfectly good roster on a suspended QB. If Deshaun Watson wasn’t being held out for you-know-what, this is a Super Bowl contending roster. And maybe that’s why they’re willing to take all the heat that comes with this decision, and punt their success until 2023. 

And if the Ravens don’t handle things with their QB’s contract situation, these standings could flip next year.

AFC EAST

Prediction:

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Miami Dolphins
  • New England Patriots
  • New York Jets

The division belongs to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. I’ve always been a Josh Allen fan, and you definitely don’t need to look up any of my takes about him prior to the 2020 season because I’m telling the truth. You believe me, right? Anyway, if the Bills have a non-QB scramble oriented running game, it’s a wrap. 

Miami is not going to be as good as some prognosticators think, but I do have them finishing second,and likely making the playoffs. When your own owner is trying to move you off the team for Tom Brady or Deshaun Watson, you aren’t that guy. I’m talking to you, Tua. But enjoy additions like Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, they’re definitely the type of guys that can mask arm strength issues with playmaking ability.

Recycling failed head coaches onto the offensive staff might work for Nick Saban, but do we really think Bill Belichick is going to get away with using Mat Patricia and Joe Judge to replace the entire offensive staff that Josh McDaniels took to Las Vegas? I think the Patriots will be good enough to finish third in the AFC East. Without Tom Brady, years of bad skill position drafting by Belichick is the ultimate reason the Patriots have fallen off, and should not be considered legit contenders.

And last, as usual, the New York Jets. Do I really need to explain why? Or can I just say that Joe Flacco is 2-12 in his last 14 starts, and Zach Wilson is only slightly better, going 3-10 as a rookie.

Just like when Tom Brady ruled the division, the only team with a legitimate QB remains king of the mountain.

George Wrighster is a former Pac-12 and long-time NFL tight end. As a television/radio host, opinionist, and analyst, who is UNAFRAID to speak the truth. Contrary to industry norms he uses, facts, stats, and common sense to win an argument. He has covered college football, basketball, NFL, NBA, MLB since 2014. Through years of playing college football, covering bowl games, coaching changes, and scandals, he has a great pulse for the conference and national perspective.

More Impressive Run: Derrick Henry Or Marshawn Lynch?

Derrick Henry 99 yard TD Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans

Nothing Gets The Blood Going Like a Huge Stiff Arm.

Last night, in a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans, running back Derrick Henry made NFL history with a 99-yard rushing touchdown, joining Tony Dorsett as the only two players in NFL history to ever accomplish that feat. Henry’s run showcased his speed, size, and most importantly, strength, as he stiff-armed a few Jaguar defenders on his way to the end zone. If you haven’t seen the run, check it out below.

Pretty impressive, right? Since society never takes a moment to appreciate greatness and always looks for comparisons (guilty), fans are now comparing Henry’s run to another famous rushing touchdown from Marshawn Lynch, which is known as the “Beast Quake.”

Here’s the question: Who had the more impressive run, Henry or Lynch?

Let’s break it down!

Derrick Henry vs. Marshawn Lynch

*Note: Each category has a points scale from 1-5. Highest combined total after 4 categories wins.*

Degree of Difficulty (Before The Run)

To set the scene, Henry’s run started at the 1-yard line in a one-possession game in the 2nd quarter against a Jaguars defense that was ranked in the top 10 in multiple defensive categories. Lynch’s run occurred on the 33-yard line in a one-possession game in the 4th quarter of a playoff game. There is no doubt that Lynch’s run was a bigger pressure moment because of the nature of the playing in the playoffs. However, if we’re looking at the runs for where they are on the field without taking into account the time and score, Henry’s play gets the edge over Lynch.

Henry – 4.9

Lynch – 4.3

Degree of Difficulty (During The Run)

The hole was clogged up when Henry first touched the ball, but the former Heisman trophy winner was patient. Once a block developed, Henry powered through the trenches and gained some breathing room in the open field. Then, Henry annihilated A.J. Bouye with a stiff arm that sent the Jags defender to the ground. After a burst of speed, Henry then stiff-armed Leon Jacobs to the ground before a cutback, another tackle break via stiff arm, and a final sprint before reaching the end zone. All in all, Henry had 81 yards after contact on the play.

On Lynch’s run, the question is not if he broke a tackle. The question is: How many tackles did Lynch end up breaking? On the Beastquake, Marshawn Lynch broke 9 (!) tackles. NINE. When Lynch started his run, he was met head-on at the line. Lynch broke the two tackles, gained some speed, broke a billion (not quite, but close to it) more tackles, and then somehow, Lynch gained more speed. How?

Lynch followed that up with a lethal stiff arm, two more broken tackles, and a dive into the end zone. Henry used three stiff arms to break a few tackles. Lynch seemingly broke a tackle from every member of the defense. Lynch has the edge here.

Henry – 4.5

Lynch – 4.9

Better Stiff Arm(s)

This category comes down to personal preference.

This…

and this…

OR this…

Two might be better than one in most cases, but I’m calling this a tie.

Henry – 4.8

Lynch – 4.8

“The Moment”

If we’re breaking down the runs without any context, both are very impressive. However, and this is not Henry’s fault, you have to take into account, “The Moment.” Henry’s run was amazing and will be a well-remembered highlight for years to come, but it came during the second quarter of a Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 14. On the other hand, Lynch’s run came in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game against the Saints in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs. The Saints were heavily favored in the game as 10 point favorites while the Seahawks made the playoffs with a record below .500. If Lynch doesn’t break this run or at least get a first down, the Saints would have called timeout. They stop the Seahawks on third down, force a punt, and then Drew Brees gets a chance to take the Saints down the field for the win. I understand that I’m using “what ifs,” but that has to be taken into account. Lynch put the team on his back during the biggest spot of the game.

Henry – 4.2

Lynch – 5.0

Final Score

Henry – 18.4 / 20

Lynch – 19.0 / 20

Lynch’s run was more impressive, but that does not take away from Henry’s jaw-dropping touchdown. I hope both highlights are shown back-to-back when describing the greatest runs in NFL history.

Five Up Five Down: The 5 Best and The 5 Worst NFL Teams Week Five

5 Worst NFL Teams Week Five

It sucks when your team is inching closer to being part of the 5 Worst NFL Teams as Week Five is closing in. Thanks, Minnesota, close to being part of the five worst teams are you kidding me? What happened to that vaunted Mike Zimmer defense? Better get it right in Philly, or I cant save you next week for being in the five down, the five worst NFL teams oh my! I need a drink.

Ah yes, it’s that time of the week for 5 Up 5 Down: The five best and five worst teams in the NFL.  We are Unafraid to piss you off by adding clubs who probably don’t belong in the Top 5. Sorry, Jacksonville at least your team doesn’t stink right now! Week 5 is here as the Colts and Patriots kick things off tonight.  As always, There are some movers and shakers in our rankings, but we also have the Bills and Cardinals who are staples at being part of the Worst 5 in the NFL. What did we learn in Week 4? The Titans have a head coach with brass balls, seeing Quarterbacks with 50 or 60 passes and 400 yards is becoming a typical thing, Earl Thomas has a unique way of saying goodbye, Patrick Mahomes II is a star, and the Rams are the ultimate show in the NFL.

5 UP: The Five Best NFL Teams 

1.  LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-0)  Last Week: 1st

No surprise here these Rams could overtake, “The Greatest Show on Turf” soon with the numbers they are putting up. I think the Rams just scored another touchdown against the Vikings while you were reading this.  My question was, could Jared Goff take the next step?  He has climbed over that step and is now atop the mountain.  In my mind, Jared joined the elite in the NFL as witnessed by these picture-perfect passes vs. a shell-shocked Vikings defense. Goff tossed a perfect game (158.3 Rating) and has amassed some fantastic numbers so far this year (72.4 % 1,406 Yards 11 Td’s just 2 INT’s with a stunning 127.3 OBR).   The Los Angeles Rams are the best team in football right now, but they are not as complete as I thought they were.

The defense has real issues at the LB position, and the secondary got torched by Kirk Cousins. The Rams are number one in our 5 Up due to the perfect record, high octane offense and an impressive plus 73 point differential. What is scary is they can be much better than this. A battle with division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks (2-2) on Sunday afternoon in the Emerald City is next. Las Vegas has the Rams at 7.5 favorites, and the all-time series stands at 23-17 for Seattle (they split both games last year). For the Rams, this kicks off three straight weeks on the road against some stiffer defenses (Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers), but I fully expect them to win all of these game. Congrats Rams, two straight weeks atop our five up rankings.

2.  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS  (4-0) Last Week: 2nd

We wanted to see Patrick Mahomes II (1,200 Yards, 14 Touchdowns, 126.5 QBR, with zero INT’s) get tested and he did in Denver on Monday night. I’m going to call him “Kid Dynamite,” found a way to get his 2nd win in the Mile High City (won last year in his first start as a Pro). The Broncos had some pressure on Patrick who once again used his feet to buy time to make big plays. He showed us some rookie throws which were fortunately not intercepted, but when the team needed him in the 2nd half, he delivered. This kid has that Brett Favre quality with improvising ability like changing hands to make a key play. He is pure excitement at the highest level becoming my favorite QB to watch in the NFL.

The Chiefs defense which has struggled a lot this year (ranked 32nd coming into the match-up) made some big plays as well. That interception by Eric Murray was a thing of beauty. An aspect that the “D” has done well all year is making some key stops on third down. They prevented another Keenum miracle at the end of the game to keep the record perfect. K.C. will have its toughest test of the year so far as the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) come to town.  The Chiefs are 3 point favorites, but the Jags lead the all-time series six games to five.

3. TENNESSEE TITANS (3-1) Last Week: Unranked

I had to bump Jacksonville out of our Top 5 this week since they won ugly on Sunday (plus the Titans beat them).  A team that won me over for having the gutsiest coach in the NFL are the Tennessee Titans. What a dramatic call against the Eagles to go for the win and sidestep the tie.  A huge 4th down conversion with game-tying FG in reach. Thank you, Mike Vrabel we hate ties! That win vs. the defending Super Bowl Champs is one that builds team unity, confidence and a season of epic success. You don’t believe me watch this postgame speech by my new favorite Head Coach.  Oh, by the way, Marcus Mariota is growing into an amazing leader, and we might have also seen the birth as well of an elite wide receiver, in Corey Davis.

Tennesee is quickly becoming a team that many around the NFL don’t want to face. The Defense is playing great, and a dramatic gutsy overtime victory versus Philly is why the Titans hold the third position in our 5 Up rankings. The Titans will travel to Buffalo (1-3) to battle the Bills. Tennessee is 3 point favorites to get the road win, and they lead the all-time series 28-17. One can never forget the Music City Miracle between these two teams in 2000 one of the great endings of all-time.

4. CHICAGO BEARS (3-1) Last Week: Unranked

So I am mixing it up in my five up. This team deserves a chance to be here since they should be (4-0) right now. Mitch Trubisky had a career day throwing for six touchdowns and the Bears receiving core (Robinson, White (amazing at blocking), Gabriel, and Miller) is improving right before our eyes. Some things the Bears need to do better is run blocking and running the ball. Neither Howard or Cohen have been consistent and with a young QB that is still developing that needs to improve.  I like how Matt Nagy goes after it very aggressive, similar to Sean McVay.

The biggest monster of the midway is Khalil Mack. He is the first player since Robert Mathis (2005) to record a sack and force a fumble in four straight games. It’s incredible to watch the rest of the defense pick up its energy level and try to emulate the play of the defensive MVP of the league right now. Chicago Bears fans should be very excited with a young team on the rise, and they will get a week off to enjoy it and root against the NFC North rivals.

5. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-1) Last Week: Unranked

It’s all about the spectacular Alvin Kamara who created history on Sunday. He was a monster last week, and he can beat you in so many ways. The Saints offense keeps getting more creative. Sean Payton might be the best play-caller in the business. Drew Brees is on the verge of becoming the all-time leading passer in NFL history. We don’t talk enough about him, but we are watching one of the all-time greats continue to play at a very high level.

If the defense can get its act together (allowing 30 points a game), then this team could represent the NFC in Atlanta for Super Bowl 53. The Saints battle the Redskins on Monday Night at home and are currently 7 point favorites. Washington leads the all-time series 17-9, but the Saints beat the Skins last year in OT, 34-31.

Closing in or falling out of our top 5 this week: Honorable Mention

Miami Dolphins (3-1), Cincinnati Bengals (3-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1), Baltimore Ravens (3-1), Philadelphia Eagles (2-2).

5 DOWN: The Five worst NFL teams 

28.  HOUSTON TEXANS (1-3)  Last Week: Unranked

The Houston Texans should send Indianapolis Colts Head Coach Frank Reich a thank you card. Thanks to a horrible decision to go for it in OT on their side of the field, the Texans were able to end a horrific 9 game losing streak.  DeShaun Watson played well (375 Yards 2 touchdowns) despite being sacked seven times and hurried on numerous occasions.  Like many offensive lines in the NFL (Vikings, Cardinals, Bills) the Houston Texans Big Boys up front stink right now! I realize that Patrick Mahomes II is the new fancy toy to drool over but watching DeShaun versus the Colts, you know he is going to be a Super Star.

The defense needs to get its act together. When you have Watt, Clowney, and Whitney things shouldn’t be this poor (every game they have allowed 20 or more points).  A Battle of Texas this Sunday Night as the Cowboys (2-2) come to town. Houston is favored by three and a half points, but the Cowboys lead the all-time series three games to one. I’m going to go on a limb to say; the Texans will not be part of the five worst NFL teams next week.

29.  N.Y. JETS (1-3)  Last Week: Unranked

Well after week one, New York Jet fans were thinking Super Bowl. Okay maybe that is a little much but a road win in Detroit by a ton of points this might be a 9 or 10 win season. Nope, rookie quarterback falls back down to Earth, but it’s not all his fault.  Sam Darnold has been okay, but the offense is so intricate without any stars that things need to be simplified quicky. The bigger issue might be developing on the other side of scrimmage.

The defense is holding a players-only meeting to talk about eliminating miscommunications.  The Jets are making way too many mistakes, and this is squarely on Todd Bowles shoulders. An ominous sign for a Head Coach who is already on the hot seat. New York will welcome the Denver Broncos to MetLife Stadium. The Jets will be two-point favorites, but Denver leads the all-time series 20-15-1.  How long will the J-E-T-S be part of the five worst NFL teams, this week will be a true indicator.

30. OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3)  Last Week: 30th

The Raiders are fortunate to have won on Sunday against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. They came within an inch of being 0-4. In a must win, the offense got it done. Derek Carr put up huge numbers (437 yards 4 TD’s 2 INTS), and Jared Cook is becoming an unstoppable weapon. The offense has been putting up big numbers, but the problem is on the other side of the ball.

While Khalil Mack is doing things we haven’t seen since 2005 in Chicago, The Raiders defense can’t stop the run, pass, or opposing teams from scoring. Only Tampa Bay has given up more points. One shining star has been the play of rookie Maurice Hurst who has shown on tape over and over.  Oakland’s defense needs only to be average for this sinking ship to float again. In four games though that defense looks like it will keep the Silver and Black in the five worst teams in the NFL. The Raiders will play what seems to be a home game in LA versus the Chargers (2-2). San Diego will be 6 point favorites, but the Raiders lead the series 63-52-1.

31. BUFFALO BILLS (1-3)  Last Week: 28th

After shocking the world with a huge upset the week before in Minnesota, the Bills true colors came out as they got embarrassed 22-0 to the Packers at Lambeau. Josh Allen, as our George Wrighster has pointed out on many occasions, was very inaccurate on Sunday. He looked like a deer in headlights thanks to an offensive line that allowed seven sacks.  LeSean McCoy returned and ran for a paltry 24 yards. The Buffalo Bills showed us all at Lambeau field why they might be picking first in the 2019 NFL Draft.  An awful football team who will use this year to gain experience. Hopefully, Josh Allen’s confidence won’t be destroyed.

The Bills will always be part of the 5 worst NFL teams here in 2018-2019. Arizona is somehow below them right now in our rankings, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cards overtake Buffalo at some point this year. The Good news for the Bills is they are home this Sunday, but the bad news is it’s against the red-hot Tennessee Titans. Hey, at least the Buffalo Wings are really good, and the Sabres drop the puck this week.

32.  ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-4) Last Week: 32nd

The Cards look to be a staple in the 5 worst NFL teams.  Another week and another poor outing by the Cardinals offense. In four weeks of play, this team has put up an NFL worst 37 points. I am guessing soon the defense might take out some anger on that offense in practice. The Cardinals have shown some fight the last two weeks, but 0-4 is pathetic.  Josh Rosen did provide a glimmer of hope (180 Yards 1 TD’s no interceptions), but this offense is just brutal. Please set Larry Fitzgerald free.  He deserves a chance to finish his career with something better than this. What is going on with running back David Johnson?  Fantasy owners are going crazy!

The Cardinals travel to San Francisco to battle division foes the (1-3) 49ers. Niners are 4 point favorites at home and lead the all-time series 29-24, but the Cards have won the last six match-ups.

Teams that are Knocking on futilities door:

San Francisco 49ers (1-3),  N.Y. Giants (1-3), Detroit Lions (1-3), Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1), Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)

Come back next Thursday for Five Up Five Down, The five best NFL Teams and the five worst NFL Teams for Week 6.