NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Trevor Lawrence throwing a pass.

In Week 4, the frisky Lions and Steelers let us down, but the Falcons, Chiefs, and Ravens did their thing to make it a 2-2 week. In Week 5, I’m trusting a cat, a bird, a JV offense, and Captain Kirk.

*Lines as of 10/9 at 12:30 PM ET on DraftKings

NFL Week 5 Bets of the Week

Jaguars -7 vs. Texans

Last week, I loved the Lions, but they let me down. This week, I’m staying in the cat family and backing the Jaguars. I’m not going to overreact to the Jaguars’ offense committing five turnovers last week against the Eagles. It was a monsoon! I’m well aware that the Texans own the Jaguars. (6-2 ATS, 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.) The Jags are 4th in overall DVOA. Plus, Trevor Lawrence continues to improve in every statistical category from a season ago up to this point in the season. Lawrence had 12 passing TDs last season. This year, he has 8. Expect a few more as the Jaguars go on to win by 10.

Eagles -5.5 vs. Cardinals

The Eagles continue to be a thorn in my side. I’ve picked against them multiple times. What does Philly do? They go out and smack their opponents. Jalen Hurts has been a top 3 QB in the NFL through 4 weeks. Hurts, who has 8 total TDs and 2 INTs, is the catalyst of the NFL’s 2nd best offense in terms of yards per game with 435. The Cardinals are a chaotic mess. Arizona is averaging a league-worst 4 (!) points in the first half. Which team scores the most in the first half? The Philadelphia Eagles (23-point average first half), and it ain’t even close. Back the birds.

NFL Week 5 Underdog of the Week

Steelers +13.5 vs. Bills

The Bills are my Super Bowl pick. At times, they have looked like a juggernaut. Conversely, the Steelers have been a JV team on offense. Kenny Pickett should spark some life into the offense that is averaging a mediocre 18.5 points per game. So why am I backing the Steelers? Two words: Mike Tomlin. Coach T is 7-1 ATS as a 6-point underdog without Ben Roethlisberger as his QB. Let’s not forget that the Steelers went into Buffalo last year and upset the Bills. The Steelers will not win today’s game, but they will keep it close enough to cover.

NFL Week 5 Teaser of the Week

Teaser: 7 points, Jaguars -7>PK, Vikings -8.5>-1.5

Read above for my Jaguars’ rationale. The Vikings play the Bears, and I believe the Bears are the worst team in the NFL. If the Steelers run a JV offense, the Bears’ offense belongs in Pop Warner. The Bears are last in the NFL in passing yards per game with 97 (!!!!!!), second-to-last in yards per game at 274, and third-to-last in points per game with 16. If the Vikings’ defense puts 11 players on the field, they have a good chance at stopping the Bears. Trust Captain Kirk at 1 PM. He’ll deliver, and so will the Vikings.

2022 NFL Season So Far

Bets of the Week: 4-3-1

Underdog of the Week: 3-1

Teaser of the Week: 2-2

Top 5 College Football Playoff Storylines Heading Into Week 5

Justin Fields Ohio State

After the highly anticipated Week 4, I’d say most fans including myself were satisfied with the slate of games last weekend. Wisconsin destroyed Michigan, Auburn held on against A&M, and Notre Dame/Georgia was close the entire night. All in all, it was a solid day. Week 5 is all about conference play as a few matchups will have a significant impact on the standings. Going into Week 5, my College Football Playoff includes:

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. LSU
  4. Georgia

The only change this week involves inserting Georgia to the fourth spot instead of Oklahoma because of their win over Notre Dame. Three SEC teams in the playoff? As much as the majority of the country fears this possibility, this scenario could happen. It’s still early so don’t tar and feather me just yet. Here are the Top 5 CFP storylines heading into Week 5.

Will The Scoreboard Break When Penn State Plays Maryland?

Through two weeks of the season, Penn State and Maryland had two of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. Through 4 games, both teams combined for an average of 66.5 points per game. Then, Week 3 happened where both teams scored 17 points each. Penn State narrowly escaped against Pittsburgh while Maryland suffered a setback in the loss to Temple. I’m expecting both offenses to get back on track Friday night in College Park. If Josh Jackson and the Maryland rushing attack to get going early, the over will hit easily.

California, Here We Come

To be honest, I’ll use any excuse to play the theme song to The O.C. That being said, California sits atop the Pac-12 as the only remaining unbeaten in the conference. It hasn’t been pretty, to say the least, but teams that find a way to win close games especially when two of those games were at Washington and at Ole Miss. Linebacker Evan Weaver leads the nation in tackles and quarterback Chase Garbers is coming off of a 4 TD performance. Now, Cal hosts Arizona State in what many will call a trap game because next week, Cal travels to Eugene to play Oregon. Survive this week and Cal may move into the Top 10.

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Wisconsin Is A Legitimate Playoff Contender

Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

After two weeks, Wisconsin outscored their two inferior opponents, 110-0. How did Wisconsin fare when playing Michigan at home? The Badgers bullied Michigan the entire game as they won 35-14. It’s time to start mentioning running back Jonathan Taylor in the Heisman race after his 203 yards and 2 TD performance against the Michigan defense. Wisconsin should beat Northwestern on Saturday and if all goes well the next few weeks, the Badgers could be 7-0 before their trip to Ohio State with huge College Football Playoff implications on the line.

Can Notre Dame Rebound After A Tough Loss To Georgia?

Some say there’s no such thing as a moral victory, but I say they’re wrong. For a team that allegedly can’t compete with the “big boys,” Notre Dame proved that they belonged against Georgia. Had Notre Dame been able to establish a running game (14 runs to 47 runs) and eliminate some of their 12 penalties on the night, the Irish might have escaped Georgia with a win. However, there’s no time to dwell on the loss and Notre Dame welcomes the No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers to South Bend. Notre Dame’s chances to make the playoff decreased, but if the Irish win out, they’ll be in the conversation.

Will Ohio State Survive?

The Big Ten West has been a thorn in Ohio State’s side the past two seasons. In 2017, Ohio State went on the road to Iowa and lost to the Hawkeyes 31 points. In 2018, Ohio State went on the road to Purdue and lost to the Boilermakers by 29. These two games cost the Buckeyes a chance at the playoff. Now, Ohio State travels to Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers in Lincoln on Saturday night. For Ryan Day and Justin Fields, it’s time to earn their stripes. Survive Saturday night and the College Football Playoff is insight.

What are your top College Football Playoff storylines for Week 5? Leave your thoughts in the comments or tweet us, @unafraidshow.