Don’t Fire Your College Football Head Coach Until You Answer 2 Questions

Tis’ Coach Firing Season

Willie Taggart, Chad Morris, and Matt Luke are all college football coaches who were fired, while Clay Helton, Will Muschamp, and Kevin Sumlin were all retained. It is abundantly clear that many college football programs do not make good decisions when it comes to deciding whether to retain or fire their head coaches. So I am here to help. I have come up with a simple, absolutely genius, and foolproof Coaching Test to determine whether or not your head coach needs to be fired.  Thanks to social media, fans, and boosters that scream about wanting their coaches fired are now heard except at USC. More often than not get their wish granted.

2019 Coaching Changes

As of December 12th, there have been 15 FBS head coaching jobs that have come open. All of the schools fired their coaches except two. Chris Petersen (Wash) and Jeff Tedford (Fresno St) unexpectedly resigned. 

The Power 5 firings happened at Arkansas, Missouri, Florida State, Ole Miss, Boston College, and Rutgers (Is it ok to call them Power 5).

None of these coaching changes were unexpected, but were they justified? Often, coaches are on an extremely short leash and are expected to win now despite the dysfunction they inherited. College football fans and school administrations demand microwave results for problems that took years to make.

Fans and boosters have called for Clay Helton (USC), Tom, Herman (TEX), Gus Malzahn (AUB) fired. But should they be gone as well?

Washington Huskies 2019

Cost of firing a coach

With some coaches having enormous buyouts, there are obvious financial ramifications to firing a head coach. For instance, for USC to fire Clay Helton they would have to pay out over $20 million for him and his assistants remaining contracts. Kevin Sumlin is another name that rings a bell. The school just paid Rich Rodriguez a buyout and is probably reluctant to pay another so soon.

In addition to financial ramifications of firing the coach, there is often a lot of uncertainty when you don’t know who the next head coach is going to be. Many fan bases that have called for their coaches to be fired are learning a hard lesson. You may get your wish with your coach being fired, but your new coach may be from the “scratch and dent bin.” There are good coaches in the scratch and dent bin, but they aren’t perfect and have some unsuccessful times in their history. But you got what you wanted, a new coach.

Most importantly, recruiting classes are often destroyed when recruits believe a coach will be fired. No matter how good a coach is, he cannot win without players.

Unafraid Show Coaching Test

Every head coach needs to be reevaluated every season. It does not matter whether the coach went undefeated and won the championship or went defeated and zero games. You only need to answer two questions to know whether your coach needs to be fired or not.

Listen to the Best Pac-12 Football Podcast

Number one:

Is there a coach that is guaranteed to take your job that is better than your current coach? Example: James Franklin is the head coach at Penn State. In fact, they just gave him an extension. He is winning football games while recruiting well, but PSU would fire him without a second thought if Dabo Swinney or Nick Saban were walking through that door. Often coaches are fired, and the schools have no clue who will replace him.   I believe that is part of the reason USC did not fire Clay Helton. They kicked the tires on Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer but ultimately couldn’t get a deal done. So, Helton lives to “fight on” for another day.

Coaches are more often valuing the stability at a top 11-25 job rather than jumping at the chance to coach a top 10 team.

Number Two:

Is there still hope? Can your current coach go into the living rooms of 17-21-year-old players and sell them and their parents on the fact that the future of your program is brighter than the past? Can you make them buy-in, believe, and go all-in with you?   If you can’t answer both of these questions in the affirmative, then you need a head coaching change. The Unafraid Coaching Test is a simple and foolproof test. If Athletic Directors and administrators answered these two simple questions every season, they wouldn’t consistently mess up their programs.

This method of determining whether to keep or fire your coach is an easy explanation for the boosters and other influential people around your program. It will keep the waters from being muddied by people with personal agendas and faulty reasoning. When Athletic Directors and administrations listen to the mob of angry fans, they mess up their programs by firing a coach too prematurely, or they rely on their gut/pride and keep the coach too long.   The angry mob of fans and boosters change their minds like the wind; their opinions cannot be trusted in the short term. Think about this.  Last year Florida State fans couldn’t wait to get Jimbo Fisher out and Willie Taggart in. Now, they would happily take Jimbo back. Texas fans were unsure about Tom Herman’s prospects as head coach. Now the Longhorns fanbase is smiling. Here are a couple of common questions I got when I explained this on the Pac-12 Apostles Podcast:

Fire College Football Coach

What if the coach is winning, but he can’t recruit?

If your coach can’t recruit, then he can’t win long term. If he can’t win, there will be a loss of hope. When the loss of hope happens, fire your coach. Don’t fire a winning coach!

Those people that tell you “recruiting stars don’t matter” are delusional. There is no coincidence that the best teams in college football every year finish at the top of the recruiting rankings.

What if the coach recruits well, constantly goes 8-5 or 9-4, and can never get you “over the hump”?

This is clearly referring to the coaches like Tom Herman and Mark Dantonio. These coaches are expected to compete for conference championships and sometimes be in the national championship conversation. Coaches that consistently recruit well stay in around 8-9 wins per season. They are really close to breaking through and will eventually win the conference. But, fan bases aren’t happy with nine wins per season. They want a maximum of one loss per season. It is damn near impossible to put up win totals like Nick Saban every year.

Next time you get into a discussion about whether or not the coach of your favorite college football team needs to be fired refer to the Unafraid Coaching Test.  

James Wiseman Decision and the NIL Compensation Timeline Proves NCAA is not Rushing to Change

NCAA Name Image Likeness James Wiseman

The NCAA has done it again! The billion-dollar non-profit organization demonstrated twice last week that it’s primary objective is protecting the sham of amateurism. First, the NCAA proved that it will be dedicated to protecting their self proclaimed noble objective even when it makes no sense and hurts it’s beloved “student-athletes”. The NCAA’s ruling in the James Wiseman case does exactly that. It makes no sense and is harmful to James Wiseman. Secondly, the NCAA demonstrated that they have no intention of allowing college athletes to “benefit” from their name, image, and likeness (NIL) anytime soon when they released their NIL compensation timeline. In their announcement, the NCAA reaffirmed that any college athlete NIL compensation will be consistent with the current “collegiate model.”

The James Wiseman Ruling

Chase Young James Wiseman

The NCAA ruled that potential number one NBA draft pick, James Wiseman, will serve a 12 game suspension and donate $11,500 to charity for a transaction that transpired between Wiseman’s mother and Penny Hardaway. When Wiseman was in high school Penny Hardaway gave his mother $11,500 for moving expenses. At the time, Wiseman was unaware of the transaction between Hardaway and his mother. Hardaway was not Wiseman’s coach although he later became Wiseman’s high school and college coach. Even though Wiseman did not have anything to do with the moving expenses Hardaway gave to his mother, the NCAA decided that he should be punished anyway. How does this make sense?

The answer is that it does not make common sense, it only makes NCAA sense. Per the NCAA’s rules, it is reasonable for Wiseman to serve a 12 game suspension for something he did not do. It is reasonable to require a “student-athlete” to pay what amounts to an $11,500 fine to a charity for an “impermissible benefit”. This is reasonable from an NCAA perspective because no college athlete is allowed to receive any benefit that is not NCAA approved. From a common-sense perspective, this punishment is completely irrational. A rational person would wonder why is Wiseman being punished? He did not do anything wrong. A rational person would also ask where is a “student-athlete” supposed to get that kind of money?

How Can James Wiseman get the Money Without Violating the NCAA’s Rules?

Wiseman’s sport does not allow him enough time to work to earn that kind of money. Perhaps, his family or a close friend could loan it to him. No, that will not work because that is not permissible, just ask Chase Young. Perhaps, random people could donate the money to Wiseman through GoFundMe like ESPN analyst Jay Williams called for people to do.

This seems like a plausible way for Wiseman to get the money. People who feel that Wiseman has been wronged could offer a helping hand. There is only one problem with this approach. Wiseman would not be able to accept the money because accepting the money would likely result in another NCAA violation. Really, what is Wiseman to do to pay this excessive fine that the NCAA has placed on him all in the name “amateurism”?

The NCAA’s NIL Compensation Timeline is a Stalling Tactic​

In addition to the James Wiseman decision, the NCAA showed its resistance to change when it released it’s NIL timeline. When the NCAA released its very lengthy NIL compensation timeline it became clear that the NCAA is stalling. Per the timeline, the NCAA will not vote on the issue until January 2021. This should come as no surprise. Afterall the NCAA is only addressing the issue after being forced to.

NCAA Name Image Likeness NIL Pay college athletes

The NCAA was Forced to Address NIL Compensation

The NCAA formed a working group to address issues surrounding college athlete name, image, and likeness (NIL) compensation. They were forced to address the issue under pressure from several state legislatures that introduced bills seeking to allow college athlete NIL compensation. The NCAA also faced pressure from Congress as Congressman Mark Walker introduced the Student-Athlete Equity Act. In October, California became the first state to allow college athlete NIL compensation when Governor Newsom signed the Fair Pay to Play Act into law. In October, the NCAA released the findings of the NIL working group. However, the NCAA is not going down without a fight.

When the working group’s findings were released, it became clear that the NCAA is still trying to retain as much power as possible. It has also become clear that the NCAA is going to give college athletes as little rights as possible. The NCAA is dedicated to retaining the current “collegiate model”. The findings did not provide much clarity on the NCAA’s stance on the issue. In fact, it only led to more questions. It seemed like a stalling tactic to slow the momentum of the progress of the NIL compensation movement. The timeline proves that it is a stalling tactic. However, their tactics are not working as Florida is considering legislation that could allow college athletes to profit from their NIL as early as July 2020.

Wiseman’s Decision and the NCAA’s NIL Compensation Timeline Demonstrates that the NCAA will not Change

The NCAA’s decision in Wiseman’s case and the NIL compensation timeline proves that the NCAA is not genuine in making meaningful changes in college sports. The NCAA is only willing to take half measures. The NCAA only wants to give the appearance of change. Their primary concern is retaining control of their billion-dollar cash cow. The NCAA remains dedicated to their cause, even when it is so clearly wrong. Their decision in the James Wiseman case is clearly wrong. The NCAA’s primary motive is showing that they are still in control and dedicated to preserving amateurism at all cost. Once again, the NCAA has proven that some sort of legislation is necessary to push the college athletes’ rights movement forward.

CFB Preseason Polls are Worthless and Mess Up the Playoff Rankings

Preseason Polls hurt the ranking throughout the season SEC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12

Polls judge everything in college football. Teams are ranked from the preseason till after the national championship.

We all love to discuss the and debate when the College Football Preseason Polls come out. I even do them for Unafraid Show. However, I have come to find a major flaw in the polling system that ultimately affects the CFB Playoff. We all want the four (or eight in a perfect world) best teams playing for the championship. College Football Preseason polls make that nearly impossible to achieve because they distort the rankings and data for the rest of the season. Eleven of the top 25 teams in the 2018-19 Preseason AP Poll didn’t even finish ranked. In 2017, nine didn’t finish ranked. In 2016, 13 didn’t finish ranked. Commonly, those early season matchups that were so hyped up turned out to be nothing burgers, but they did affect the CFB Playoff committee rankings.

What is the purpose of preseason polls if they are so incredibly wrong. The goal is to find the four best teams in the nation and let them fight it out for the national championship. However, that is nearly impossible to get right because the preseason polls give miss information that only further convolutes the process of determining who the best four teams are for the College Football Playoff. If you are not convinced yet, I have proof.

This will be a journey down the rabbit hole so please hang on tight and keep and an open mind. The polls regularly reflect the voters desire to be right about their preseason selections rather than looking at the data objectively. Here are a few glaring examples of the head-scratchers:

The College Football Preseason Poll Proof

1. Wisconsin went into the 2018-19 season ranked #4. In the week four poll, Wisconsin was 2-1 and ranked #18 with wins over New Mexico and Western Kentucky. The team they lost to, BYU (2-1) was ranked #24. And the team that beat BYU was Cal (3-0), who was unranked. How on earth does that make sense?

2. Texas trashed Georgia in their bowl game yet Georgia finished above Texas in the final AP poll. Georgia is talented and was a sexy pick for the College Football Playoff after started #3 in the preseason? They both finished the season with the exact same amount of wins (2) over top 25 teams, and they have a head to head matchup.

3. Northwestern finished 8-1 in the Big Ten and only got 13 votes in the preseason poll.

4. Stanford came into the season ranked #13. They won their bowl game to finish the season 9-4. So how did the Cardinal finish unranked while seven other teams with at least four losses were ranked? Stanford’s only losses were to top 25 teams: Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, and Washington State. Three of those teams finished in the top 14.

SEC Preseason AP Poll Magic

5. Early in the season that LSU had two top 10 wins (Miami, Auburn). Those wins propelled LSU from #25 in the AP Poll to #5. Neither Miami or Auburn finished ranked. So, those two wins weren’t nearly as good as they were portrayed publicly. That eventually set up an “epic top 5 showdown” between Alabama and LSU. Alabama won the game 29-0, and LSU got a quality loss. The Football Playoff Committee then still had the Tigers ranked #7.

6. Now let us look at Florida. They came into the season unranked. At the end of the regular season, the Gators finished #10 in the country but only beat one team that finished in the top 25. In week six they beat the “#5 team” in the nation LSU which we just learned about. The next week they beat 3-4 Vanderbilt and were ranked #9. That set up a top 10 showdown with #7 Georgia. Georgia won, so adding that to their preseason hype only magnifies the SEC table thumping.

7. Kentucky finished the regular season at #10 in the nation despite only beating one team (Florida) that finished the season in the top 25

There were so many more examples, but you get the point. This is not a knock on LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, or Florida. All are talented teams that had great seasons. However, they are just prime examples in 2018 of how preseason polls manipulate the rankings and end up leaving the SEC overhyped. They ultimately only ended up judged from games they played against themselves.

Fans Deserve Better: A Great Solution

Imagine a world where there are no preseason rankings, and polls start after week four. There would have been information on teams that came into the season with so much hype. We would have already known Miami, FSU, USC, TCU, Auburn, and Wisconsin weren’t as good as advertised. Teams that beat them would get credit, but wouldn’t falsely rise so far in the polls. Starting the rankings after four weeks would create a much more accurate representation of schedule strength and conference strength. Right now we rank teams before they have played a down of football. We have seen time and time again that a top 5 talented team doesn’t make them a top 5 team.

Also, if the preseason polls were eliminated, college football fans would get much more of what they really want and deserve; great games. Teams would no longer have the luxury of preseason top 5 rankings while playing a cupcake non-conference schedule. You would see many more teams trying to put big names on their schedules early in the season to propel them to the playoffs. Fans would respond to that by eliminating the attendance problems many schools are facing. And viewership who certainly increase. All of which leads to more money for everyone except the student-athletes who are actually generating the money, but I digress.

Get rid of preseason polls and Make College Football Greater.

College Football Power 5 Sleeper Teams From Each Conference

Sleeper Teams from each Power 5 conference

Perhaps more than any other sport, parity seems to be – for lack of a better word – a rarity in college football. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Auburn, etc. seem to always be near the top of the standings, while teams at the bottom of the barrel tend to remain there for years, even decades. But every so often a team climbs from the ashes and shocks the world. They surprise their respective college football Power 5 Conference and come close to – if not actually – winning their conference. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC all have sleeper teams in the mix for 2019.

Washington State was one of the best examples of that last season. Led by transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Cougars nearly won the PAC-12 crown and finished well within the top-25 despite projections having them near the bottom of the conference in the preseason.

Which team could make the WSU leap in 2019? Here is one option for a college football Power 5 surprise team in each conference. Consider them the proverbial dark horses.

College Football Sleeper Teams 2019

ACC: Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia was projected to finish sixth in the ACC by USA TODAY, but that feels like it could end up being a mistake if quarterback Bryce Perkins can build off his ridiculously excellent 2018 season.

Perkins proved to be one of the more dynamic players in college football last season, throwing for 2,680 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and running for 923 yards and nine scores. 

The team will need to replace running back Jordan Ellis and receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, no easy task, but they do return nine starters to a defense that allowed the 20th fewest points last season.

A top-3 finish in the ACC seems very plausible for Bronco Mendenhall’s squad.

Minnesota RB

BIG-10: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota has a lot of things going for them in the BIG Ten, and could be a scary team if things go their way. For starters, they have one of the easiest schedules in college football, and could easily find themselves 5-0 in October.

Second, they return nine starters on offense and seven on defense, which includes receiver Tyler Johnson and a pair of former 1,000-yard rushers in Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith.

The Gophers finished 2018 winning three out of four, and could realistically challenge for a BIG-10 championship this season if things go right for P.J. Fleck and company.

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer College Football

BIG-12: Baylor Bears

Baylor went from one win in 2017 to seven wins in 2018, the second year under coach Matt Rhule. USA TODAY has them 22nd overall, so it’s hard to call them a dark horse necessarily, but Rhule’s squad is only picked to finish fourth in the BIG-12, and I think they can challenge for the top spot.

The Bears have one of the deepest groups of wide receivers in the country, and quarterback Charlie Brewer is coming off a season where he threw for over 3,000 yards with 19 touchdowns.

With an offense poised to do some damage through the air, and a team that has continued to improve in the last few seasons, Baylor has a chance to make some noise in 2019.

Chip Kelly Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA Pac-12 Teams

PAC-12: UCLA Bruins

Chip Kelly has proven he can win at the college level. His offensive style is no longer as unique and unknown as it was when he was leading Oregon to prominence a half-decade ago, but there’s reason to believe that the Bruins will begin to hit their stride in the second year under Kelly.

After all, the Bruins did show improvement in the second half last season, and they are returning a good chunk of starters on both sides of the ball.

While they have one of the toughest schedules in the entire college football landscape this year, they could certainly surprise some people heading into conference play.

USA TODAY has them ranked ninth in the PAC-12, and a top-five finish wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano Power 5 Sleeper

SEC: Tennessee Volunteers

The Vol’s may have lost defensive lineman Emmitt Gooden, but they still have a packed house upfront – especially if they can get Michigan transfer Aubrey Solomon cleared before the opener.

The defense should be solid, but this team’s ability to succeed next season will depend on how quarterback Jarrett Guarantano develops under new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney.

Guarantano had some electric performances last season, particularly against Kentucky, which helped make him the 21st ranked quarterback in college football according to Pro Football Focus.

However, poor offensive line play limited his playmaking ability, and that is something that Tennessee will need to improve if they want to rock the boat in the stacked SEC conference.

These college football Power 5 sleeper teams may not win their conference but they will win games that decide who does.

Dabo Swinney’s $93M Contract Proves College Athletes Can Be Paid

Dabo Swinney $93M contract There's enough money to pay the players

The myth that there is not enough money to pay the college athletes has been debunked once again! Last week, Clemson University made its football coach, Dabo Swinney, the highest paid coach in college football. The record-breaking contract will pay Swinney $93 million dollars over the next ten years. That is an average of $9.3 million dollars a year. Swinney’s deal beats Nick Saban’s contract with The University of Alabama that pays him $74 million over eight years. It also beats Jimbo Fisher’s contract with Texas A&M that pays him $75 million dollars over ten years.

Just under them is Jim Harbaugh (Michigan), Gus Malzhan (Auburn), and Kirby Smart (Georgia) each averaging $7 million per year. Even with these impressive salaries, people still argue that there is not enough money to pay college athletes. When coaches salaries and television deals for college football and basketball are considered, it is hard to fathom how people can continue to make this argument.

Why do People Still Buy The “Not Enough Money Argument?”

People continue to buy into that argument because they listen to words of coaches like Dabo Swinney. Swinney denounced paying college athletes in a statement where he alluded that doing so would give college athletes a sense of entitlement.

“We try to teach our guys, use football to create the opportunities, take advantage of the platform and the brand and the marketing you have available to you. But as far as paying players, professionalizing college athletics, that’s where you lose me. I’ll go do something else, because there’s enough entitlement in this world as it is.”

In reality, the only people that seem to be entitled is the coaches and the NCAA. They seem to be entitled to having young predominantly black talent perform their talents for essentially free. These athletes do this while receiving a scholarship and being precluded from receiving any other unsanctioned benefit.

While a scholarship is valuable, it pails in comparison to the benefits the coaches, college sports administrators, and NCAA receive. However, that is the paradox of the NCAA’s purported mission and the current college athletics system. Dabo Swinney’s stance on paying college athletes and his new contract is the ultimate demonstration of that paradox.

The Paradox of the Dabo Swinney Contract and the NCAA’s Mission

The NCAA purports to provide college athletes with an opportunity to participate in athletics while pursuing a college degree. The NCAA also purports to keep college athletics distinct from professional athletics. One reason that the NCAA does this is to protect college athletes from exploitation.

In reality, the NCAA has only maintained that distinction in regards to compensation of the labor force. The NCAA has made sure that college athletes do not receive any compensation remotely resembling that of a professional athlete. The NCAA even goes so far as to strip college athletes of their publicity rights preventing them from using their name, image, and likeness, as a condition of participation. Thereby ensuring that college athletes will not receive endorsement opportunities similar to those granted to professional athletes.

However, the NCAA has failed in maintaining a distinction between professional and college athletics in every other way. This evidenced by Swinney’s and other coaches’ contracts and the million dollar television deals. It appears that the NCAA only truly cares about making sure that college athletics is not professionalized to the benefit of the athletes. In reality, the NCAA’s mission and the allowance of contracts like Dabo Swinney’s is really a bit of a paradox. It is a paradox in the fact that the NCAA claims to protect college athletes from exploitation while at the same time allowing their talents to exploited by college sports officials who make millions of dollars from the athletes’ labor.

Perhaps Swinney Would Leave if College Athletes Were Paid

In his statement, Swinney stated that if college sports were professionalized that he would “go do something else.” What he failed to acknowledge is that college sports in already professionalized to his benefit as can be seen in his contract. Perhaps Swinney would go do something else if he was forced to share some of the wealth and coaching college football was no longer a $93 million dollar cash cow. One thing is for sure, there is definitely enough money to pay college athletes.

Alabama vs. Clemson: How Each Team Can Win The National Championship

Alabama Clemson

Alabama vs. Clemson, Part IV. Sign me up. For the third time in the last four years, the final two teams standing are Alabama and Clemson. That should come as a surprise to no one because these two teams happen to have the two best coaches in Division I football, Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney. Both Alabama and Clemson come into the National Championship undefeated and motivated to add to their recent history of success. Both teams can win tonight and here’s how it can happen.

Alabama Can Win If…

Tua is Tua

  •  Tua Tagovailoa is the best quarterback that Nick Saban has ever coached at Alabama. The numbers speak for themselves. 3,671 yards and 41 touchdowns would have been good enough for the Heisman Trophy had it not been for Kyler Murray. That being said, Tua exacted his revenge on Murray as the lefty threw for 318 yards and 4 TDs to defeat Oklahoma in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. What Tua can do on a football field is special. He can make every throw, keep plays alive with his legs, and change the course of the game at any moment. If Tua is his usual self, it will be a long day for the Clemson Tigers.

Quinnen Williams Plays Like A Superstar

  • Clemson may have the depth at defensive line, but they don’t have Quinnen Williams. The Alabama defensive lineman has had a meteoric rise this past season as he became the best defensive lineman in the country. Williams accumulated 67 tackles, 8 sacks, and 18 tackles for loss. Williams is the best player on the field at all times and is currently projected to be taken in the top 3 of this year’s NFL Draft according to NBC Sports. If Williams wreaks havoc on the interior line, it will be a long night for Clemson.

Good Luck Stopping Alabama’s Pass Catchers

  • The best phrase to describe the Alabama receiving corp is “Pick your poison.” Seriously, this unit is a five-headed monster. It all starts with Jerry Jeudy, who was a first-team All-American and the Biletnikoff Award winner, which is awarded to the nation’s top receiver. After Jeudy, a quartet of talent awaits as Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle, Irv Smith Jr., and Devonta Smith all have over 6 touchdown catches each. You cannot stop this group. You can only hope to contain it.

Nick Saban Shows Why He’s the Greatest Coach Of All-Time

  • For my money, Nick Saban is the greatest coach of all-time. Although he’s tied with Bear Bryant for national championships with 6, Saban has won titles with two schools, which is why I give him the edge over Bryant. There’s a reason why Alabama is 55-3 since 2015 and are making their fourth straight appearance in the National Championship game. Saban and the Tide make little to no mistakes throughout the game. No one adjusts better at halftime than Saban. Look at last year as Saban inserted Tua in at quarterback over Jalen Hurts. Most coaches play checkers. Saban plays chess. If Saban throws his headset again, Clemson should give up on the spot.

Clemson Can Win If…

Trevor Lawrence Thrives Under Pressure

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has drawn many comparisons to his idol, Peyton Manning. However, Lawrence has been described as “Peyton Manning, but a better runner.” That’s a lethal combination, and it very well is the winning formula for defeating Alabama. The true freshman took over as the starter for Kelly Bryant in September and hasn’t looked back since. Lawrence has thrown for 2,933 yards and 27 TDs to only 4 INTs. Without a doubt, Alabama will be the toughest defense that Lawrence has faced all season. If the freshman can limit the turnovers and convert on third downs, then Clemson keeps Tua off the field, which may be the difference in the end.

Clemson Defense Proves They’re The Better Unit

When asking the casual fan about the team with the better defense, one might assume that it’s Alabama because of their recent history of dominance. However, that’s not true this season. The Clemson Tigers defense is statistically better than the Alabama defense. Clemson is ranked 2nd in the country in total defense while Alabama ranks 13th. Alabama might have the best defensive player on the field in Quinnen Williams, but Clemson has the better defensive line. Even without Dexter Lawerence, Clemson still boasts two consensus All-Americans in Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins. Add Austin Bryant and Albert Huggins into the mix, and the Tigers defensive line can disrupt Tua and the Alabama offense all night.

Trevor Lawrence via Getty Images

Travis Etienne Finds Success On The Ground

Alabama has depth in the backfield, but the best running back on the field wears orange and white. His name is Travis Etienne. The Clemson sophomore rushed for a jaw-dropping 1572 yards and 22 TDs this season. That’s 700 more yards than the leading Alabama running back. Plus, Clemson has three running backs that average over 7 yards per carry while Alabama has none. If Etienne find success on the ground, then it will open up the offense and put less pressure on Trevor Lawrence

The Clemson Coaching Staff Orchestrates The Game Of Their Lives

Nick Saban is in a league of his own, which is why it’s going to take a team effort from the Clemson coaching staff to defeat Goliath. There is a reason why Brett Venables is one of the highest paid assistants in college football. Venables is the best defensive coordinator in Division I, and he’s worth every penny. Venables’ defense ranked second in total defense and provided the anchor for this undefeated team. However, it all starts at the top for the Tigers. Their success is credited to their energetic and passionate head coach who is the only man to ever defeat Nick Saban in the National Championship. That coach is Dabo Swinney. Swinney has turned Clemson from an average team to a national powerhouse during his tenure. If there’s one coach who could disrupt the Alabama dynasty, it’s Dabo.

Alabama vs. Clemson. Tua vs. Trevor. Saban vs. Dabo. This is the heavyweight fight that college football fans deserve.

Read Up: College Football Playoff Ponzi Scheme

Pac-12 Conference: Five Things Must Change to Keep Pace in College Football

Pac-12 conference larry Scott

The Pac-12 is called the “Conference of Champions” because it boasts the most national championships in all of college athletics. That statement is true. Yes, it’s nice and fun to win track, volleyball, softball, baseball, and golf championships. But the reality is that college football is king and the Pac-12 conference hasn’t won a national championship since USC in 2004. If the leadership stays on the current course, only God knows when it will happen again. I will examine the problems the conference faces and the steps it needs to take to remedy them. I promise not to even mention the officiating and replay drama.

1. Admit There is a Problem/Speak Up

The first step to recovery is admitting there is a problem. It seems that everyone outside of Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott realizes the Pac-12 is at the beginning stages of a free fall behind the other four power 5 conferences. Public perception, revenue-sharing payout projections, television contracts, officiating, and conference play schedules are all bad.

The Big Ten and Big XII commissioners have been outspoken when they believe their teams have been slighted by the CFB Playoff committee. They are 100% right to do so because the reality is that there is a tremendous imbalance in the schedules which affects rankings. The ACC and SEC play eight conference games while the Pac-12, Big Ten and Big XII all play nine. In contrast, when Pac-12 teams get slighted the conference just takes it in stride and makes no waves. Here was commissioner Larry Scott’s statement about Washington State being left out of the New Years’ Six Bowls:

“Washington State University had a fantastic season, a very strong record, and captured the attention of the nation with their thrilling style of play and remarkable competitiveness in every game.  While we are disappointed that they were not selected for a New Year’s Six bowl, we made the case for Washington State to the selection committee through the established communications protocols, and we were aligned in our approach with Washington State in this regard.  At the same time, we know that the selection committee has difficult decisions to make, and we respect the committee and its members.”

Does this sound like the statement of anyone who is willing to demand change? Or does this seem like the statement of someone who just takes what they can get? My mom always said the squeaky wheel gets the oil. The Pac-12 is not making enough noise or disruption to cause change. The Big Ten has been left out of the CFB Playoff for three straight years. Their commissioner Jim Delany sees the bias and is now demanding an 8-team playoff. Guess which commissioner is more likely to get something done to help his conference?

2. Fix Pac-12 Network and TV Contracts

The problems with the Pac-12 network are accessibility and revenue generation. Pac-12 fans cannot watch if they have DirectTV or have streaming service providers like Hulu TV or YouTube TV. In the era of cord-cutters, that is a total disaster. The conference doesn’t even have an app on Apple TV or Amazon Fire Stick. To make matters worse, their contract with Uverse was not renewed. If the Pac-12 cannot be seen by most college football fans, the perception of the conference suffers.

The Pac-12 loves to boast that it is the only conference that wholly owns its own network. Fox owns 49% of the Big Ten Network. The SEC and ACC Network are entirely owned by ESPN. Who cares if the Pac-12 owns the entire network if it is not generating the revenue the other conferences do? More revenue means more resources for coaches and recruiting. Better players and coaches lead to more success which comes full circle to more money.

When payments are made for this year, the Pac-12 will be last amongst the Power-5 conferences in distributions to their member schools. Over the next five years, the conference will fall even further behind and won’t even reach $38 million in payouts per school until 2023.

By comparison, the Big Ten is expected to provide payouts to schools this year that exceed $51 million. The SEC is currently at $42 million, and the Big 12 is at $38. Even the Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to pass $40 million after previously ranking last. Each of those conferences future projection increases are larger than the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 has to find a way to generate significantly more revenue in a hurry. The schools and Pac-12 leadership need to do away with the arrogant attitude that the conference can achieve success equal to the Big Ten and SEC on a “lean” budget. Success in football drives the revenue for all conferences. Can the Pac-12 have the success necessary on the football field to warrant a network shelling out big cash to air their games?

Jon Wilner does a great job detailing more about the Pac-12 finances.

3. Poorly Designed Schedules Hurt the Pac-12

Pac-12 football schedules are set with a three-step process. The individual teams set their own non-conference schedules. Those are then sent to a company that builds the conference schedules around those. The athletic directors then view and approve the schedules.

The Pac-12 is already playing at a disadvantage to the SEC and ACC by playing nine conference games. I detail how the amount of conference games dramatically affects rankings here. The conference does not do itself any favors by creating competitive disadvantages during conference play. The SEC schedules its teams for success. Their biggest rivalry games are almost always preceded by a bye week or FCS opponent. The LSU-Alabama, Auburn-Alabama, and Florida-Georgia games are prime examples. And they would never have one team coming off a bye playing a team on a Friday night or in the conference championship. The conference’s most important rivalry games are typically played toward the end of the season for the committee to talk about. The Pac-12 literally does the complete opposite of this.

Oregon-Washington, USC-UCLA, USC-Stanford, and any other combination of those games should be highlighted by the conference. Instead, most of these games are at the beginning of the season in 2019 and will be forgotten by the time the committee decides the top four. Stanford plays three of its most critical Pac-12 games against USC, Oregon, and Washington in the first six weeks of the season without a bye. Washington and Oregon are projected to be some of the best teams in the Pac-12 but have similar situations. How on earth does this make sense?

Imagine if the conference scheduled those games towards the end of the season when those teams are 7-0 or 6-1 like the SEC does. You would have “epic matchups of college football heavyweights.” And the loser would fall minimally in the rankings. The Pac-12 has to be more strategic with scheduling because it drastically impacts perception, rankings, and ability to make the playoff.

USC, UCLA, and Stanford typically put together schedules of 11 Power-5 games which no other teams from any other conference would attempt, especially the SEC. This year Stanford plays ZERO FCS opponents and plays 11 Power-5 teams plus UCF. I applaud these schedules and believe every team in college football should follow suit. However, they do need to include strategically plans bye weeks.

4. Game Times

East Coast Bias is real, but the Pac-12 exacerbates the problem with atrocious start times. “Pac-12 After Dark” is always a trending topic on fall Saturday nights, but it’s a thing that nobody on the east coast or midwest sees. These 10p ET kickoffs mean east coast college football fans would be on their 13th hour of games when they end at 1-2a ET. It is unreasonable to expect that fans and media east of the Mississippi will watch. It does a complete disservice to some of the best teams and players in the nation.

Christian McCaffrey didn’t win the Heisman trophy in 2015 because of “Pac-12 After Dark”. Seven of his games started after 10p ET that season. He had one of the most incredible seasons when broke Barry Sanders single-season NCAA all-purpose yardage record (3250), but didn’t get the hardware.

When rankings and postseason accolades are affected, clearly a change has to be made.

5. Make it Matter More to Fans

Pac-12 fans as a whole are just not engaged and invested at the same level as SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 fans. As a Pac-12 fan, it is frustrating and sad to admit that. The schools have to find a way to ignite the rabid nature of fans. It is time to do away with the casual kind of fandom. There is no reason that USC and UCLA games are quiet as a church mouse until something good happens. Fans have to live and die with the games. That is the only way to get respect from the rest of the nation.

The Pac-12 has some of the best football in all of college football, but until these things are fixed, it will continue to be underappreciated.

UCF: CFB Playoffs Can Never Be Better than March Madness Until Cinderella Gets In

The College Football Playoffs committee’s failure to pick the University of Central Florida (UCF) for the second year in a row is proof that the tournament will never be as exciting as March Madness. Every year when March Madness begins fans are at the edge of their seats waiting to see what likely championship contender will fall prey to the tournament’s “Cinderella” team. For example, in last years tournament, the very unlikely University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) knocked off the University of Virginia. The emergence of a “Cinderella” team is a major part of what makes March Madness so exciting.  However, the College Football Playoffs (CFP) is unlikely to ever experience the excitement of a  “Cinderella” team. The committee’s failure to give UCF a bid in the tournament for two years is proof of this.

For the last two seasons, UCF has been unstoppable. UCF finished their 2017 and 2018 seasons undefeated for a combined 25-0 record. Despite having two perfect seasons and knocking off Auburn after they beat Alabama, UCF was not extended the opportunity to be the possible “Cinderella” team in the College Football Playoffs (CFP) either year. If UCF beats LSU in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30 they would have defeated the SEC elite in back to back seasons. With two perfect seasons, why is UCF being overlooked? The structure of the CFP is to blame.

Participants in the college football playoffs are chosen by the CFP committee.  The committee considers a number of factors. Those factors are not favorable to teams, like UCF, who are not in Power Five conferences. Accordingly, the CFP structure does not allow a team such as UCF to be eligible for the tournament no matter how perfect their season. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that the CFP will ever experience the excitement of a “Cinderella” team swooping through the tournament and upsetting the most likely championship contender. This is precisely why the College Football Playoffs needs to be expanded to include more teams.

College Football Playoffs Structure Neglects Non-Power Five Schools

General success during the football season does not equate to automatic CFP eligibility – obviously. The CFP committee considers several factors in addition to on-field performance.  The committee considers the number of games lost, the point spread in games, and the strength of each schools schedule. The strength of the schedule is judged based on the teams each school faces. Schools with tougher schedules are given more weight during CFP selections.

In most cases, schools in the Power Five conferences are considered to be the tougher schools. Due to this, schools that are not in Power Five conferences, like UCF,  are unlikely to get a real chance at the CFP. Group of Five schools, such as UCF,  find it difficult to schedule games with Power Five schools.  The lack of such games on the schedule makes it extremely difficult for Group of Five schools to clinch a spot in the CFP. This is exactly where UCF fell short in the CFP considerations.  A substantial amount of UCF’s victories were not against what is considered a “strong” school.

Group of Five Schools Must Face the “Right” Power Five School

It is not sufficient for a Group of Five School to face just any Power Five school. The school must face the “right” Power Five school.  This is also evidenced by UCF.  Over their last two seasons, UCF successfully faced the University of Maryland of the Big 10 and the University of Pittsburgh of the ACC.  However, these games were not enough to give UCF a leg up in the strength of schedule category.

Some may argue that UCF should have been given serious consideration by the CFP committee for the 2018 CFP based on their win against Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl.  Auburn beat Alabama in last year’s SEC championship.  Alabama went on to win the CFP last year. Accordingly, some argued that UCF could possibly be defending the CFP title this year. Unfortunately, the fact that UCF defeated Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl had no bearing on the CFP committee’s considerations in 2018.

However, that did not stop fans from fantasizing about what would have happened if UCF had been given their due. Some fans made the logical leap that UCF may have defeated Alabama in the CFP if given the opportunity. Some UCF fans went as far as to attempt to bait Alabama into facing UCF to settle the debate regarding who is the true national champion. As exciting as that game would be, it will probably never happen.

Since Such a Match-up is Unlikely to Happen, the CFP will Never be as Exciting as March Madness

Since the CFP structure does not favor “underdog” teams, the tournament will always have a certain level of predictability. A tournament that is too predictable simply is not exciting. That is the beauty of the March Madness tournament, its unpredictable nature.  Yes, there are teams that are in it every year. Teams such as North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky are almost certain to make an appearance every year.  At the same time, any of those teams could get knocked off by the most unlikely opponent.

For example, in 2012 the underdog Norfolk State University beat Missouri.  Missouri was heavily slated to go to the Final Four and was unpredictably knocked off by the most unlikely opponent. Games like that are the excitement of the March Madness Tournament. The CFP is unlikely to ever know that excitement as long as underdogs like UCF are never given a chance to play on the CFP stage. For this reason, the CFP should be expanded to give more teams an opportunity to play on college football’s grandest stage. As long as the qualifications for CFP consideration remain, the CFP will never be as exciting as March Madness.

College Football Players Are Not Obligated to Play in Bowl Games

Will Grier Bowl Games Sitting West Virginia

Why do fans expect an “amateur” football player to put his career and livelihood on the line for what amounts to an exhibition game? On Saturday, West Virginia University announced that starting quarterback Will Grier will not be participating in the Camping World Bowl game against Syracuse. His decision not to participate in bowl games to focus on preparation for the NFL Draft did not sit well with some college football fans. He joined the list of more than a dozen players who will skip their teams’ bowl games.

Grier made the following statement informing fans of his decision.

Fans have no right to be upset with unpaid “amateur” athletes for choosing to further their professional careers.  After all is that not what a major part of the college experience is all about, learning to make tactical business decisions to be better professionally.  Grier did just that.  He made a tactical business decision to protect his potential professional career by not subjecting himself to injury in the bowl game.

Furthermore, Grier is slated to be a first or second-round draft pick. Would it really make sense for Grier to jeopardize his NFL draft potential by playing in a bowl game? The answer is simple. No, it would not make sense.

The Minimal Reward is Not Worth the Risk

The risk of injury in bowl games simply is not worth it for a college football player with a high NFL Draft potential. Bowl participants receive what amounts to very little for their participation. Participants receive a bowl gift and bragging rights for a year. Bowl gifts are nice and fun. However, they are minuscule when compared to the salaries and bonuses that coaches receive for bowl participation. This is especially true for a player like Will Grier who has already accomplished the pinnacle of what college sports and “amateurism” is supposed to be about – degree completion.

A degree is extremely valuable and can lead to a better life. Receipt of scholarship money to acquire a degree is very valuable as well.  However, a scholarship often does not equate to a college athlete’s full market value. Why should a player with the potential to finally receive their full fair market value for their athletic prowess risk a potential career ending injury in a game that is not going to compensate him up to his full value? Again, the answer is simple. No athlete should take that risk.  No fan should expect them to.

College Football Players Should not be Vilified for Opting Out of Bowl Games

Suiting up for any game carries a risk of injury. However, dissenting fans argue that it is only one more game, so the players should play. While it may only be one more game, the risk of injury is ever-present. In fact, the risk of injury is so prevalent that Grier is not the only player sitting out of a bowl game this year. In the past, players like Jaylon Smith and Jake Butt have suffered a serious injury which impacted their draft position.  Specifically, Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, N’Keal Harry, Greedy Williams, and Grier’s teammate Yodny Cajuste are among those that have opted out of their respective bowl games this year to prepare for the NFL.

Some fans are equally upset by these decisions.  They argue that such players are being selfish and are quitting on their teams. However, that is not true. The players who opt out are not doing it to quit on their team. They are doing it to protect their future career prospects so that they may finally receive market value for their talents.  Despite what fans may think, college football players are not obligated to risk a career-ending injury for their viewing pleasure. Accordingly, players who opt out should not be vilified for their decision.

Players are not the Only Ones who Opt Out; Coaches do Too

Players are not the only ones who opt out of bowl games.  Coaches opt out as well.  Every year, several coaches leave their teams to take jobs at other schools in the midst of bowl game preparation.  Coaches are allowed to make business decisions for the betterment of their careers, just as players should be.

Whether people want to acknowledge it or not, college football is a business.  Therefore, all parties involved should be allowed to make decisions that are in the best interest of their careers. This freedom of movement may upset some fans. However, players and coaches should be able to make whatever decision is best for their career.