Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9: Chaos is Coming

College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9

Chaos is Coming

The Unafraid Show College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9 are not going to look like the AP Poll. Open your eyes to see a different view of evaluating the top 10. Most polls including the College Football Playoff Committee give college blueblood teams a massive “benefit of the doubt.”  I don’t believe in that. The college football top 10 teams are ranked by the correct criteria: quality wins, schedule played, and dominance. Only the games have played matter.

I re-rank the top 10 every week from scratch. The previous week’s rankings do not factor into the next week. So, the rankings will change, sometimes drastically every week because we will have new information.

Before we get to College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 8, you can reference the Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings for Week 8.

Leave a comment or shoot an email: ImMad@unafraidshow.com… Yes, that is the real email address.

1.  Alabama (8-0) Last Week: #1

The Crimson Tide ran through Tennesse like they were a JV team. Tua Tagoviloa finished the game healthy after a scare last week. Alabama fans know they cannot be beaten if Tua is healthy. The truth is Bama has not played any real competition, and their resume suggests they should not be #1. However, their dominance has been unprecedented.

The thing that makes the Crimson Tide so impressive is how fast they play on both sides of the ball. Every player knows their assignment and executes in a hurry. There is never any second-guessing.

They are off next week, and then finally get to a real game in week 10! Smh.

2. Clemson (7-0) Last Week: #4

Clemson has their best game of the year against undefeated NC State. Their defense finally displayed the dominance we all expected preseason. They Trevor Lawrence had another solid performance. The Tigers defense turned a trap game and a top NFL quarterback draft prospect into lunch meat. The ACC runs through Clemson at this point. They can’t go to sleep next week as they head to Tallahassee to play Florida State.

3. Notre Dame (7-0) Last Week: #3

Notre Dame was on a BYE this week. They better be prepared for NAVY next Saturday. Triple option teams are always tricky matchups. Brian Kelly is only five wins away from securing a spot in the College Football Playoffs. However, they cannot have another performance like against Pitt, or they may not be lucky enough to survive.

4. LSU (7-1) Last Week: #7

LSU handled their business against Mississippi State. The Tigers offense is still not as explosive as it will need to be to give Alabama some competition in a couple of weeks. Their defense continues to have dominant performances each week. LSU is the most battle-tested team in the country. I double dog dare anybody to try and say Coach ‘O’ is not the right man to lead the Tigers. He has knocked off Miami, Auburn, and Georgia, so far this year. So technically he does have three top 10 wins. The fact is that Miami and Auburn (lost to Tennessee) were ranked WAY too high in the preseason and neither is currently ranked.

If Joe Burrow and the Tigers offense continue to improve, Bama better watch out.

5. Texas (6-1) Last Week: #5

The Longhorns fans have to be saying prayers every night for Sam Ehlinger’s shoulder to be healed. His legs and improved passing have been the difference in Texas starting the season 6-1 instead of 3-4. Texas will be hard pressed to finish the season 11-1 heading into the Big XII championship game if Ehlinger misses extended time. The Longhorns will need all hands on deck if they want to escape Stillwater with a win against Oklahoma State on Saturday.

6. Oklahoma (6-1) Last Week: #NR

Oklahoma has the best offense in the country. Yes, they are better than Alabama. Their offense is more explosive and dynamic with Kyler Murray at quarterback than last year with Baker Mayfield. The only concern surrounding the Sooners is their defense. They played much better against TCU without Mike Stoops as defensive coordinator. Oklahoma’s offense is so good that if the defense can keep everybody under 30 points, they will cruise to the playoffs. I hope we get to see the Alabama defense try and stop this offense in the Playoffs.

7. Florida (6-1) Last Week: #6

Florida had a BYE week and is preparing for their most important game in at least 4-5 years. Dan Mullens is preparing to take his team to Jacksonville, Florida for the “Biggest cocktail party in the world” to play Georgia. This is going to be a must win for both teams. The loser will undoubtedly be eliminated from College Football Playoff consideration. Feleipe Franks will need to have his most efficient game thrown the ball if the Gators are going to put the Bulldogs down.

8. Michigan (7-1) Last Week: #9

The Michigan game against Michigan State was painful to watch. There is no doubt Michigan’s defense is dominant and one of the top in the country. However, the offense leaves a lot to be desired at times. Jim Harbaugh’s offense seems to get ultra conservative in big games. I have no Idea why he likes to play a plodding style of offense instead of opening things up. Michigan’s roster is littered with top recruits who are potentially explosive playmakers that go unused. The Wolverines will need better offensive performances against Penn State and Ohio State to get wins.

9. Central Florida (7-0) Last Week: #10

The Knights have won 20 straight games going back to last season and have earned their spot in the College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9. Much to the chagrin of the CFB Playoff committee, UCF beat East Carolina badly in week 8. It will cause too much commotion if UCF doesn’t get in the playoffs two years in a row undefeated. The only team people wish losses on more than the UCF Knights is Notre Dame. Both teams could take a spot for a Power 5 team.

10. Ohio State (7-1) Last Week: #2

Dwayne Haskins threw for 470 yards and two touchdowns, but the Buckeyes offense only managed 20 points. Ohio State’s offense has struggled running the football in back to back weeks against Minnesota and Purdue. The Buckeyes are one of the most athletic, dynamic, and talented teams in the nation. I wonder if Ohio State started to read it’s own press clippings and lost focus against Purdue. Maybe this piece of 49-20 humble pie will keep the Buckeyes energized for the rest of the season.

I believe Ohio State will bounce back unless Urban Meyers’ “memory loss” has finally started to affect his coaching.

Next Up:

Iowa, Georgia (needs a quality win), Washington State, Oregon, Penn State, Texas Tech

I know some of you are steaming mad right now because your team is ranked too low or is unranked. Take a breathe and realize that your fandom is causing irrational thoughts. The College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 9 is accurate, unbiased, and unafraid.

Big 12 Power Rankings Week 8: Every Game Matters

Big 12 Power Rankings Week 8

Week 7 wasn’t just a crazy week for all of college football; it was a very telling one for the Big 12 Conference. With Iowa State taking down the conference’s only undefeated team, it might have knocked the Big 12 out of the Playoff, but as the conference says, “Every Game Matters,” and that was proven last weekend.

With players emerging as the future for their respective teams, as well as overall play and coaching providing a more solid snapshot of the identity of each team last weekend, Week 7 certainly set the tone for what could create some interesting scenarios as we focus more on December 1–the Big 12 Championship Game in Dallas.

Without further ado, here’s how the teams stacked up last weekend, and what to look for this weekend.

Disclaimer: These Power Rankings are based off WEEKLY observations of games and performances. These are NOT based off an entire body of work on the season. 

10. Kansas

Kansas was on a bye last weekend, but the Jayhawks didn’t go without their share of drama. It was announced last week that offensive coordinator Doug Meacham was OUT, and that head coach David Beaty would be the primary play-caller from here on out. After spending a couple of seasons with TCU, Meacham was hired by Kansas to overhaul the Jayhawks, but as of Week 7, Kansas had the 107th ranked offense in the nation, averaging just 5.29 yards-per-play.

It’s unknown just what Kansas will look like against Texas Tech this weekend, but with the Red Raiders’ defense improving week-after-week, it’s time for the Jayhawks to step up if Beaty is to have a job at the end of the season.

9. TCU

There were high expectations from TCU this season, both offensively and defensively. Heading into Week 1, the Horned Frogs were ranked No. 16 in the nation. Despite losses against Ohio State and Texas, however, the TCU defense was still in the Top 15 nationally, so there was still a possibility to turn the tide, and hope to rely on a high powered defense to win games. Unfortunately against Texas Tech last Thursday, TCU–which was a touchdown favorite at kickoff–was handed its third loss of the season and its second loss in the Big 12.

TCU allowed 353 total yards of offense against the Red Raiders, which is relatively low for Tech’s standards, however, TCU’s offense had three turnovers, including a critical turnover by QB Shawn Robinson on a scramble with just: 43 left in the 4th quarter. A 17-14 score in the Big 12 proves just how much defenses are stepping up, and if TCU can’t rely on its unit to close games out, and with Oklahoma shuffling its defensive identity around with the firing of Mike Stoops, Saturday could be an interesting game in Fort Worth.

8. West Virginia

West Virginia took a massive tumble this week, and with good reason. The Mountaineers were routed 14-30 against an Iowa State team that continues to repeat history year after year, and throttle teams that don’t take them seriously. As a result, Will Grier was immediately thrown on the fringe in Heisman conversation after throwing for just 100 yards and finishing with -33 rushing yards.

Much of the discussion after the ISU game was that several teams had exposed West Virginia’s flaws throughout the season already, but against the Cyclones, those weaknesses just imploded. Whatever is happening with the synergy between the Mountaineers needs to be corrected, and soon, as the schedule won’t get any easier after the bye week.

7. Oklahoma State

Following its 12-31 loss against Kansas State, Oklahoma State has now dropped three of its four Big 12 games, so far. Much like TCU, the Cowboys were predicted to have a strong showing this season, but since facing Texas Tech in Week 4, they’ve now slid to a point where speculation on social media is running rampant as to whether Mike Gundy will even be in Stillwater next season.

The thing about speculation is that unless it’s from a primary source, nothing can be substantiated, but if the Cowboys want to keep it that way, things have to change for OSU and fast. First, Taylor Cornelius had a quarterback rating of just 40.7 against K-State, having thrown for zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Moreover, the Cowboys had just 15 first downs, 311 total yards of offense, and were just 5-15 on third down conversions. Penalties were also an issue, with 7-70 yards. Thankfully, OSU has a much-needed bye this week, as they prepare to face a Texas team that just might be back.

6. Kansas State

Although Kansas State blew out Oklahoma State 31-12 last weekend, the Wildcats still lack an identity, but the win was a confidence boost at a time when teams really need them. The most interesting part about the Wildcats’ game plan, however, is that in a league where passing is king, it’s almost as if OSU didn’t know how to defend the run game K-State was implementing all afternoon. The Wildcats put-up 291 rushing yards to just 130 in the air, with junior running back Alex Barnes accounting for four rushing touchdowns, and three receptions for 51 yards.

While K-State hasn’t been as effective in the passing game,  these metrics certainly give defensive units on K-State’s schedule a blueprint as to what’s working, so that’s definitely something to look at, especially with the Wildcats taking on Oklahoma after their bye this weekend.

5. Baylor

Baylor found its rhythm in the passing game under quarterback Charlie Brewer. Dare I say, this has been Baylor’s most complete team in the Matt Rhule era, and against Texas, the offense certainly showed flashes of what we should grow to expect from here on out.

Against a Texas team without its starting quarterback, perhaps Baylor took advantage of UT’s more limited playbook–especially on defense, where UT was shutout of the end zone the entire second half. The only score that came out of the second half was in the third quarter on a two-yard touchdown run by Jalen Hurd. But the bigger storyline here was that Brewer connected on 20 of 39 passes, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown. While that might not seem like “Big 12 numbers,” it’s a step in the right direction and indicates that Brewer has Baylor’s offense trending upwards. Baylor has a bye this weekend but will head to Morgantown on Thursday, Oct. 25 to play the No. 13 ranked West Virginia Mountaineers.

4. Iowa State

Iowa State is another team that appears to be trending upward in terms of quarterbacking, and with that talent lying at the talented hands of freshman Brock Purdy, the Cyclones should be in business for a few years. Ames is always a tough venue to play in, and perhaps the Mountaineers got ahead of themselves and forgot just how hard Iowa State plays, but in WVU’s biggest test of the season, the Cyclones throttled the Mountaineers and continues its streak of holding teams well below their usual level of productivity.

Purdy finished the day at 18-25 for 254 yards, three touchdowns, and a single interception. The Cyclones also finished the day with 244 yards rushing, which is a pretty incredible number, especially when you consider how the ISU defense held Will Grier to just 100 passing yards, a single touchdown, and a 16.6 QBR, and limited WVU to just 52 yards in the ground. It could have been worse for the Mountaineers, but with the win, it gives the Cyclones a week to dial as they host Texas Tech after the bye.

3. Texas Tech

Texas Tech really turned a corner this season, defensively. And although the Red Raiders are still allowing chunks of yardage, the red zone stands, forced field goals, and ball-hawking are really making a difference in close games, as was the case in Tech’s 17-14 victory on the road at TCU on Thursday. Tech still ranks at the bottom of the conference in total defense, but Adrian Frye leads the Big 12 in passes defended at 13, and in interceptions at 4. The list also features Demarcus Fields at No. 7 and Douglas Coleman III at No. 18. Tech is also No. 20 in the nation in third-down defensive stops, so with quarterback Alan Bowman still recovering from a partially collapsed lung, the defense has been coming up big.

Quarterback Jett Duffey made some huge plays in the win, including a 62-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Deion High in the third quarter to give Texas Tech the lead, and on a 38-yard keeper for a go-ahead score in the 4th quarter. With TCU driving late in the 4th, TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson had a costly interception while trying to scramble, which Adrian Frye was able to come up with to ice the game.

Texas Tech faces Kansas this week, and with Iowa State the week after, I have a feeling head coach Kliff Kingsbury will be testing some new packages on the Jayhawks in preparation.

2. Oklahoma

The Sooners were on a bye last weekend, and the timing couldn’t have been more perfect, as Big 12 interim journeyman Ruffin McNeill took over duties for Mike Stoops, who was relieved following OU’s loss against Texas in the Red River Showdown. With the Sooners’ defense being the biggest cause of concern over the years, it had many wondering why it took them so long to make a change at defensive coordinator, and it makes you wonder what we can expect from the Sooners moving forward.

In any event, with the way things are going, OU is still stacked and at this point, whoever ends up in Dallas on December 1 is anyone’s guess. But with the Sooners facing a TCU team that can’t seem to cauterize the bleeding this season, it’s time for Kyler Murray to go back to work.

1. Texas

Texas, once again, finds itself at the top of my Power Rankings because they’re undefeated in Big 12 play. Numbers don’t lie, and if you think this team is going to take a vacation now that they’re in the Top 10 for two consecutive weeks, you’re wrong, but maintaining momentum could be a challenge. For starters, starting quarterback, Sam Ehlinger left the game in the first quarter with blood visible on his hand. When he returned to the field, he set his helmet down, picked up a headset, and Shane Buechele finished the game.

Buechele finished the day 20-34 for 184 yards, with a touchdown and an interception in UT’s 23-17 victory over Baylor. The issue here, is that Ehlinger is a true dual-threat quarterback, known for extending plays on the ground and making up for a significant chunk of rushing yards. Ehlinger was diagnosed with a first-degree shoulder sprain, but head coach Tom Herman says he could be throwing by the end of the week.

The Longhorns have a bye this week before going on the road at Oklahoma State on the 27th, which should give Ehlinger ample time to recover, but the bigger concern for UT might be in the kicking game. Since his thrilling game-winning field goal against Oklahoma, Cameron Dicker’s production has decreased, and he finished the day 3/5 on field goals against Baylor. With how close that game was, and with how close several games have been in the Big 12 this season, that’s something the Longhorns have to work on.

Want More? Check out: Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 8: Big Shake-Ups

Hot Takes House: Drake Curse, Fire NFL QBs and Coaches, Tim Tebow Tears

Tim Tebow

It’s Monday, and the Hot Takes House is open for business. These are hot takes and fun from the weekend. Send us your hot takes to ImMad@unafraidshow.com, and they may make the next week Hot Takes House. Do not read any further if you are easily offended, especially if you are a Tim Tebow fan. If you do, share with a friend.

Send us your hot takes to ImMad@unafraidshow.com, and they may make the next week post.

Winner of the Weekend

  • The curse of Drake is real. He has cursed the Toronto Raptors, Kentucky Wildcats, Serena Williams, and Connor McGregor. If I ever end up on a big stage in competition keep Drake’s ass away from me.

  • It is time for the Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, and Jacksonville Jaguars need to drop their pride and sign Colin Kaepernick.

NFL

1. Derek Carr has the worst interception of the 2018 NFL season.

https://twitter.com/FirstDownFR/status/1049061535920922624

 

2. We did not ask for a new Sunday Night Football song. The old one was just fine.

3. Jason Garrett is the best thing that ever happened to the Giants, Eagles, Washington, the entire AFC, and NFC.

4. It’s time for the Cowboys to break down and text Dez, “You Up”?

5. The Cleveland Browns have a better winning percentage than the Dallas Cowboys. Welcome to 2018.- @JakeBrownRadio

6. Only Bad Blake Bortles could 1-up Derek Carr’s terrible interception!

7. Nick Foles is not better than Carson Wentz. Eagles twitter needs to stop with the nonsense.

8. Packers kicker Mason Crosby may be in the process of cutting himself. He missed 5 FGs in a dome against Detroit.

9. Odell Beckham threw the best deep touchdown pass of the Giants’ season. He is their best wide receiver and quarterback.

10.

  • Last week Colts’ coach Frank Reich went for it on fourth down in overtime and didn’t get it; Texans won in overtime.
  • This week Cowboys’ coach Jason Garrett punted on fourth and shorter; Texans won again in overtime.
  • Two different coaching approaches, the same result, only one looks cowardice.

College Football

1. In my unbiased opinion, Wrighster is right! Tim Tebow and Nick Saban need to quit crying about fans not showing up!

2. Mike Stoops was actively sabotaging the Oklahoma Sooners defense. We all knew he was getting fired!

3. The jig is up! Utah figured out how to stop Stanford’s jump ball on the goal line. I’ve never seen anybody play it like the Utah cornerback. I bet the conversion percentage goes down from here on out

4.  Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois is the toughest quarterback in the country. He gets his ass kicked every week, doesn’t down his teammates, and signs up for more. 

5. “Dicker the Kicker” is the best nickname in college football! Texas Wins.

6. The AP Poll is biased for ranking Georgia so highly when they have played nobody. The Unafraid Show Top 10 are the only rankings I acknowledge.

UFC

1. Ridiculous that the cameras pulled away on a PPV event. We paid the money. We get to see what happens! #UFC229

2. I hate to be the bearer of bad news. Should we tell Connor or no?

 

Hope you enjoyed Hot Takes House. See you next Monday! Send us your hot takes to ImMad@unafraidshow.com, and they may make the next week post.

https://twitter.com/barstooltweetss/status/1048658766458224642

Red River Showdown: Texas-Oklahoma earn highest FOX Sports TV ratings

Red River Showdown

According to FOX Sports PR, the Red River Showdown between No. 7 ranked Oklahoma and No. 19 Texas was the highest rated football game of the 2018 college football season. The network says that the event recorded a 4.3 metered market rating, meaning a designated market area that can receive a televised event.

The game wasn’t without its share of hype in the lead up, however.

Texas freshman defensive tackle Keondre Coburn tweeted, “I’m so happy to finally be a Longhorn, baby. This has been the hardest process, ever, but it’s over and my next journey is in Austin, and with my boys in this Revolution Class, and I promise, we will beat OU and the rest of them. ” Former OU quarterback Baker Mayfield responded with, “This is what we call being naive. Kid has no idea what it’s like stepping into the Cotton Bowl. So here’s how it works… The team north of the Red River doesn’t flinch. But it’s okay, you’ll see for yourself, wish you the best.”

At kickoff, Oklahoma had a 75.6 percent win probability, according to ESPN. But with a balanced approach on offense, the Longhorns managed to gas the OU defense, controlling the clock for 33 minutes and 50 seconds of total possession, and finished the day with 177 total rushing yards, and 501 passing yards. After Texas stunned the Sooners with a 48-45 victory, Coburn posted:

The 2018 Red River Showdown was the highest rated sports event yesterday, according to FOX, which is quite the turnaround from two seasons ago, when the game produced its lowest television rating in 16 years. The 2016 game, which was shown on FS1, had just a 2.0 television rating.

Here’s the official release from FOX Sports PR:

While yesterday’s game exposed several deficiencies in he OU defense, it also showed that Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando has his hands full, too, as the Longhorns allowed OU quarterback Kyler Murray to finish the day with 304 total yards and four touchdowns. The Sooners also clawed its way out of a 21 point deficit with fourth quarter domination.

Despite that second-half performance, Texas moved from No. 19 in the nation in the recent AP Poll, to No. 9, and the loss sent OU to No. 11.

Want More? Unafraid Show’s College Football Top 10 Rankings Week 7: Party Crashers

College Football Playoff: The Bullshit Edition!

 

The College Football Playoffs teams were announced this morning and the Top 4 are:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
As we see there is one ACC team (Clemson), one Big XII team (Oklahoma), and two SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama). This leaves the Pac-12 and Big 10 completely out of the playoffs. The ACC and SEC have a systematic advantage in the College Football Playoffs and we the fans are getting screwed. College Football Playoff Committee screwed up putting Alabama in the top 4. They’ve set college football back at least 10 years.
We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference and don’t play good non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be disgusted. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way you should be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.
The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games.
If you have a weak schedule, you should at the very least have to win your conference to get in the top four. If you’re as good as everybody “thinks” you are, then you should have won your conference! However, the committee clearly doesn’t value those things as highly as they should. This is not a diss to Alabama, but a diss to the broken system of college football. The fans continuously get screwed, and will continue to get screwed until the schedule imbalance is fixed. The worst part about it is that fans sit up and co-sign this nonsense and don’t demand better.

I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:
You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses means an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could possibly beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, lets compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.
If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half game less than all other conferences.
In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.
One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in conference. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.
Now that we are all on the same page in terms of wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake”, which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes”. This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.
I contend that the committee absolutely blew it for college football by putting Alabama in the playoffs. They confirmed that conference championships and schedules don’t matter. This whole system is broken and, in order to fix it, we have to break it again. It stinks for college football fans and gives the SEC and ACC have a systematic advantage while screwing over the Pac-12 and the Big X.
Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:
“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”
-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2018)
So here’s my solution:
1. Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.
I am also open to two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:
1. 9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
2. 8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.
Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier.

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

College Football Playoffs: The Bullshit Edition

The College Football Playoffs teams were announced this morning and the Top 4 are:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
As we see there is one ACC team (Clemson), one Big XII team (Oklahoma), and two SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama). This leaves the Pac-12 and Big 10 completely out of the playoffs. The ACC and SEC have a systematic advantage in the College Football Playoffs and we the fans are getting screwed. College Football Playoff Committee screwed up putting Alabama in the top 4. They’ve set college football back at least 10 years.
We will NEVER see schedules get better until the committee punishes teams that don’t win their conference and don’t play good non-conference games. As a college football fan, you should absolutely be disgusted. I’m assuming that all of you are like me and love college football and enjoy watching good games and debating other fans. If that’s the case, there is no way you should be ok with a team that didn’t win their conference and played a bad non-conference schedule to be in the top 4.
The committee has essentially said that it is acceptable to lose your conference, play eight conference games while playing three non-power 5 teams, including an FCS team and get into the playoffs. Do not give me the “everybody does it” line. Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, Cal, and others managed to schedule at least 2 power five non-conference games.
If you have a weak schedule, you should at the very least have to win your conference to get in the top four. If you’re as good as everybody “thinks” you are, then you should have won your conference! However, the committee clearly doesn’t value those things as highly as they should. This is not a diss to Alabama, but a diss to the broken system of college football. The fans continuously get screwed and will continue to get screwed until the schedule imbalance is fixed. The worst part about it is that fans sit up and co-sign this nonsense and don’t demand better.
I’ve long said that college football schedules are consistently manipulated by the SEC and ACC, who have an advantage. Pac-12, Big XII, and Big 10 teams have a significantly smaller margin for error when trying to compete for championships. Let me explain how this works by using this table:

You can clearly see why the ACC and SEC have a win-loss advantage. Notice that there is a seven-loss difference between the ACC/SEC, and Big 10 which all have 14 teams. Seven more losses mean an additional game for each team in the BIG 10 against a team that could possibly beat you. Imagine how easy the path to the championship would be if Ohio State could sub out that Iowa game for Mercer. Now, let’s compare those numbers to the Pac-12, which has 12 teams and 54 total conference losses. That is only two losses less than the ACC and SEC, despite having two more teams.
If that was too complicated, an easier way to explain all this is by looking at the average number of losses per team in each conference. SEC and ACC teams will lose a half-game less than all other conferences.
In theory, all this would not be a big deal if the conferences made up for that conference game with a competitive non-conference game. However, in most cases that is NOT what happens.
One of the biggest conversations when comparing teams is comparing how many losses each team has. However, all wins are not created equal. I’ve heard the argument that the Big XII, Big 10, and Pac-12 “play themselves out” of the playoffs by losing too much in conference play. The reality is playing 8 conference games instead of 9 conference games creates a systematic advantage for the SEC and ACC.
Now that we are all on the same page in terms of wins and losses, I’ll explain the manipulation of the committee rankings. The current formula to manipulate your way into the playoffs is: play eight conference games, one mandated power 5 team, two non-competitive FBS games, and 1 FCS team. That FCS game often presents itself in November. It is commonly referred to as a “November Cupcake”, which is a glorified bye week against teams like Mercer, Citadel, or Wofford. The “November Cupcake” is an important component for highly regarded SEC teams to move up in the playoffs because of timing. When other conferences have ranked matchups in November, SEC teams play “November Cupcakes”. This gives them an opportunity to move up the rankings without playing a competitive game, and one of the teams from the other conference has to lose. This is the formula how you consistently end up with top 10 matchups amongst SEC teams late in the season, which makes the conference appear stronger.
I contend that the committee absolutely blew it for college football by putting Alabama in the playoffs. They confirmed that conference championships and schedules don’t matter. This whole system is broken and, in order to fix it, we have to break it again. It stinks for college football fans and gives the SEC and ACC have a systematic advantage while screwing over the Pac-12 and the Big X.
Even Nick Saban (Alabama’s Head Coach) agrees with me when asked about college schedules and teams being deserving of playoff bids:
“I think it’s subjective to some degree because we don’t all play each other. I could get into my theory on this. I personally want to play all Power 5 conference teams every week. I know people say we played Mercer College and we couldn’t get a game with anybody else. All right so…  If we all had to play twelve teams from the Power 5 conferences, we would have a better feel for which conferences were the strongest and there would be more crossover play… and maybe even play more conference games.  Fans would like it better. You guys [the media] would like it better. You’d have a better inventory to show people. We wouldn’t have these games that people don’t really want to come to, players don’t really want to play in. And I think you’d have a better idea of who the best conferences and the best teams were.”
-Nick Saban on “College Football Playoff Selection Show” (December 3, 2018)
So here’s my solution:
1   1.  Change the college football playoffs to eight teams.
2   2. Take the five power five champions and three at-large teams.
     3. One of the at-large teams has to be the highest ranked non-power 5 team.
I am also open to two solutions to solve the scheduling imbalance and increase the greatness of college football for fans:
1   1.  9 conference games, two power 5 games, and one FBS non-power 5 game to continue to give money to the little guys.
    2.   8 conference games, two power 5 games, one FBS non-power 5 game, and one FCS game to continue to give money to the little guys.
Both of these options would give the fans a much better game experience and generate more revenue for athletic departments. Teams would be more encouraged to schedule home and home non-conference games against good teams. This would make selling season tickets much easier.

This would also alleviate a lot of the nonsense discussion about resumes and strength of conferences when choosing playoff teams. The committee would have more data because teams would have played more common opponents. My plan would cause television ratings and revenue increases as well. That’s more money for the NCAA, coaches, sponsors, and athletic departments to keep out of the hands of the players. And isn’t that the #1 goal of college football?

College Football: 5 Teams Headed for Disappointment

Yesterday’s list featured the 5 most overrated teams in College football this season. This list is different. These are the 5 teams most likely to disappoint their fan base. The unique part about this list is that some of these schools have National Championship caliber teams and some are teams looking to bounce back from a down year. These teams all have the same thing in common. At the end of the year they will be one play, one penalty, one injury, one dropped pass, or one missed field goal away from football fan euphoria.
5. Oklahoma– Not your fault your coach Bob Stoops retired abruptly. At least he waited until after the recruiting class was signed. Lincoln Riley was the offensive coordinator of the high-powered Sooners offense, now he’s the head ball coach. Coming off of 3 straight BIG XII titles expectations are high in Norman. The signal calling magician with the heart of a lion, Baker Mayfield is back. The offense will be fine despite losing so many playmakers to the NFL (Westbrook, Perine, Mixon). The defense on the other hand will have its hands full with BIG XII offenses and Ohio State in the shoe. Last year the Sooners gave up over 28ppg. Again, the defense will stand between the Sooners having a really good season and being real National Championship contenders.
Vegas win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +110)
4. Notre Dame– This is an exciting schedule for college football fans everywhere! Take note SEC, ACC, Pac-12, B1G, and Big XII, 11 Bowl teams and Michigan St on the schedule. That was the good news, now time for the bad news. The Irish are going to massively disappoint this season. In 2016, ND finished 4-8 with 4 soul-crushing defeats by 3 points or less. When I look at the schedule I cannot figure a way they get to 10 wins. Freshman QB Brandon Wimbush was highly coming out of high school, but is still inexperienced. Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson are All-America candidates on an offensive line that returns four starters. While they Irish may be able to protect their QB, the question is can they stop an opponents offense. Last year the Notre Dame defense was almost as painful to watch as my Ducks. The Irish will try really hard this year, and fight hard. Anything over 7 wins should will be a victory.
Vegas win total: 7.5 (Over -130, Under EVEN)
3. Georgia– Even with Kirby Smart instead of Mark Richt as the coach, Georgia is gonna be Georgia. The Bulldogs fan base is excited and energized. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will share the backfield again. Jacob Eason has the potential to be a good quarterback. The defense returns 11 starters, linebackers are the best unit on the team, and the secondary has 3 seniors.  Georgia’s schedule is super light, 3 very winnable non-conference games, and SEC schedule without Bama or LSU. What could possibly go wrong? I’m not sure, however, I am sure that the Bulldogs will find a way to get 9 wins out of what should be 11.
Vegas win total: 8.5 (Over -130, Under EVEN)
2. USC– The Trojans have a shot at the national championship with sophomore Sam Darnold at QB. He is the preseason favorite for the Heisman and favored to be the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft. The Trojans also have Ronald Jones at RB, who might be the most dangerous back in college football. So what could go wrong? A lot. Try having 12 straight games without a bye week, 11 of which are against Power 5 opponents. The one non Power 5 school that USC plays is Western Michigan. They won 13 games last season. Needless to say, a simple injury that a bye week could usually fix might derail the Trojans National Championship hopes. This is a really good team. One way or another head coach Clay Helton will answer all questions about if he the guy to lead the Trojans long term.
Vegas win total: 9.5 (Over -180, Under +150)
1. Florida State– I believe this team is a National Championship caliber squad if they can protect their sophomore stud QB Deondre Francois for change. The ACC was the toughest conference in college football last season. If that trend repeats, one loss in tough games against Clemson, Louisville, NCST could cost them a chance to play in the ACC title game and likely mean no College Football Playoff bid. The Seminoles defense will be stout with the nations best defender, Derwin James, back in the fold. Oh… I almost forgot about that game against Alabama week 1. And Miami… And Florida. Good luck Seminoles fans. You are going to need it. The good news is that (depending how everyone else shakes out) you might be able to fade 2 losses and make the CFP top 4. At the end of the day, this feel like another 1 play away season.

Vegas win total: 9.5 (Over -150, Under +120)

How many wins are you giving each team? Which team do you think is most likely to disappoint in 2017?